2011-08-24 Brewers (Marcum) at Pirates (Thompson) - [Brewers lose, 2-0]

[topper09er]

Marcum on his career has never grounded into a bunt DP in only 8 chances. He is 9-11 at advancing the runner on a bunt, in his entire career. Nothing to learn from that except that he is not horrible at it.

 

The Brewers are actually 3rd in the NL for % of scoring the runner from 3rd with < 2 outs

 

Tm	<2,3B	Scr	% ?
	4142	2109	51%
PIT	244	147	60%
CIN	260	143	55%
MIL	267	144	54%
STL	244	131	54%
HOU	249	133	53%
NYM	289	154	53%
SFG	242	127	52%
SDP	286	145	51%
LgAvg	259	132	51%
LAD	257	129	50%
PHI	249	124	50%
WSN	261	130	50%
COL	292	143	49%
ARI	250	121	48%
FLA	276	129	47%
CHC	248	113	46%
ATL	228	96	42%

[stoutdude04]

lets look at the result. 0 runs + and he got the bunt down. sweet.

 

I do suppose its a good idea to look back at what happened to decide if it was the best idea to do it or not.

[brewmann04]

They still have time to wake from this and enjoy theri day off tomorrow

[topper09er]

The pitcher struck Corey Hart out yet you think there was a good chance Marcum wouldn't strikeout? Hart is looking bad but he did lay off 1 good slider on 2-2 that Marcum would definitely have K'd on.

 

Edit nevermind they changed pitchers after Marcum

[afeter]

stoutdude04[/b]]

afeter[/b]]lets look at the result. 0 runs + and he got the bunt down. sweet.

 

I do suppose its a good idea to look back at what happened to decide if it was the best idea to do it or not.

funny, i was composing my original post before the bunt.

nice try, and good addition to the conversation.

 

[markedman5]

I think the day off might be coming at a good time. Long road trip. lots of important games(most of which we have won) Team just doesn't seem patient today.

 

Get away from baseball for a day and come out firing on friday.

[fondybrewfan]

Today is going be one of those frustrating days; I can feel it.

[topper09er]

The problem with that inning was not the bunt, it was that Hart was in autoswing mode on 2-0 and chased a low-away slider, then was too agreesive on 2-1 and swung at a pitch at his head, and finally K'd on full count on a slider in the dirt.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Even if Marcum hits into a double play at least we score a run.

Exactly. They're going to concede the run there.

[Cracked Bat Collector]

Need the Dodgers to win to save my sanity today, watching this game has put me in a foul mood

[stoutdude04]

funny, i was composing my original post before the bunt.

nice try, and good addition to the conversation.

We all knew Ron was going to bunt. I was referring to the fact that you looked at scoring 0 runs because we bunted. We scored 0 runs because we swung at balls out of the zone, not just because we gave up one run.

 

I thought youd figure out that my post showed my thoughts on looking at it from a results based side.

 

[afeter]

topper09er[/b]]The problem with that inning was not the bunt, it was that Hart was in autoswing mode on 2-0 and chased a low-away slider, then was too agreesive on 2-1 and swung at a pitch at his head, and finally K'd on full count on a slider in the dirt.

my problem is with the bunt. just like it will be this friday when RR bunts in the 3rd with a 2 run lead. My problem will be with the bunt. OR on sat when he bunts down 3 in the 4th. my problem will be with the bunt. Or like in the double header when he sacrifices 3 times with a huge lead. my problem will be with the bunt.

 

 

 

 

[stoutdude04]

I get that you have an issue with bunting, I read that. A single from hart, or a good AB and we score that run or 2 easily. Hart had a bad AB, thats where my issue is.

[pebadger]

And if Marcum Ks absolutely nothing is accomplished.

 

After the bunt the Brewers had two chances to tie the game with a single and guys that get paid to hit the ball failed, and the guy that had a chance to cut the lead in half with virtually any result other than a K failed miserably. Yet we continue to beat away at the bunt hobby horse.

 

Oh, and topper, quite bringing facts to the argument.

[fondybrewfan]

I had no problem with the bunt there. I'll take 2nd and 3rd with only one out and top of the order every day of the week if the worst case of alternative (Swinging away) being a DP with a run scoring and no one left on base. I think the odds of Marcum screwing up the bunt are far smaller than him screwing up swinging away.

[rluzinski]

Anyone have stats as to how often we fail at that? I swear we are the absolutely worst team in baseball with a man on third, 0 or 1 outs.

The Brewers are accused of that every year. The reality is that teams don't score about a 3rd of the time with a man on third and 1 out. I think fans just have too high an expectation in that situation.

[topper09er]

I think the odds of Marcum screwing up the bunt are far smaller than him screwing up swinging away.

This is the best point, some people are acting like Marcum has a good chance of reaching base. Small sample I dont care, career line of .138/.206/.224. How likely do you think it would be for the pitcher to walk Marcum there? Id say slim to none, meaning forget about the fancy .206 OBP and focus on the .138 average.

[topper09er]

Anyone have stats as to how often we fail at that? I swear we are the absolutely worst team in baseball with a man on third, 0 or 1 outs.

The Brewers are accused of that every year. The reality is that teams don't score about a 3rd of the time with a man on third and 1 out. I think fans just have too high an expectation in that situation.

Fans should have ahigh expectation because it is not that hard to do. The problem is that no one in the majors changes their approach in these situations and try to drive the ball in the gap/hit HRs which causes them to K (like Hart) or get jammed (like Braun). If you told Braun to try to ground out 6-3 he could do it every at bat if he wanted to.

[brwrsfan]

Anyone have stats as to how often we fail at that? I swear we are the absolutely worst team in baseball with a man on third, 0 or 1 outs.

The Brewers are accused of that every year. The reality is that teams don't score about a 3rd of the time with a man on third and 1 out. I think fans just have too high an expectation in that situation.

Fans should have ahigh expectation because it is not that hard to do. The problem is that no one in the majors changes their approach in these situations and try to drive the ball in the gap/hit HRs which causes them to K (like Hart) or get jammed (like Braun). If you told Braun to try to ground out 6-3 he could do it every at bat if he wanted to.

 

OK, teams fail in that spot 1/3 of the time. That's perfectly fine and sounds reasonable. But I believe the Brewers fail in that spot way MORE than 1/3 of the time, hence why I asked if anyone could find the stats. If we're at league average, that's fine. But I bet we're closer to 50/50 or worse. That's why I made the statement in the first place.

 

And yes, I also agree that fans should expect that run to score. If the infield is back, I don't think it's that unreasonable to expect a major league player to put the ball in play and drive in the run.

[rluzinski]

Anyone have stats as to how often we fail at that? I swear we are the absolutely worst team in baseball with a man on third, 0 or 1 outs.

The Brewers are accused of that every year. The reality is that teams don't score about a 3rd of the time with a man on third and 1 out. I think fans just have too high an expectation in that situation.

Fans should have ahigh expectation because it is not that hard to do. The problem is that no one in the majors changes their approach in these situations and try to drive the ball in the gap/hit HRs which causes them to K (like Hart) or get jammed (like Braun). If you told Braun to try to ground out 6-3 he could do it every at bat if he wanted to.

I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.

[topper09er]

The Brewers are accused of that every year. The reality is that teams don't score about a 3rd of the time with a man on third and 1 out. I think fans just have too high an expectation in that situation.

Fans should have ahigh expectation because it is not that hard to do. The problem is that no one in the majors changes their approach in these situations and try to drive the ball in the gap/hit HRs which causes them to K (like Hart) or get jammed (like Braun). If you told Braun to try to ground out 6-3 he could do it every at bat if he wanted to.

 

OK, teams fail in that spot 1/3 of the time. That's perfectly fine and sounds reasonable. But I believe the Brewers fail in that spot way MORE than 1/3 of the time, hence why I asked if anyone could find the stats. If we're at league average, that's fine. But I bet we're closer to 50/50 or worse. That's why I made the statement in the first place.

 

And yes, I also agree that fans should expect that run to score. If the infield is back, I don't think it's that unreasonable to expect a major league player to put the ball in play and drive in the run.

I already posted this, but we are at 54% (3rd in the NL) and the average is 51%

 

Tm	<2,3B	Scr	% ?
	4142	2109	51%
PIT	244	147	60%
CIN	260	143	55%
MIL	267	144	54%
STL	244	131	54%
HOU	249	133	53%
NYM	289	154	53%
SFG	242	127	52%
SDP	286	145	51%
LgAvg	259	132	51%
LAD	257	129	50%
PHI	249	124	50%
WSN	261	130	50%
COL	292	143	49%
ARI	250	121	48%
FLA	276	129	47%
CHC	248	113	46%
ATL	228	96	42%

[topper09er]

The Brewers are accused of that every year. The reality is that teams don't score about a 3rd of the time with a man on third and 1 out. I think fans just have too high an expectation in that situation.

Fans should have ahigh expectation because it is not that hard to do. The problem is that no one in the majors changes their approach in these situations and try to drive the ball in the gap/hit HRs which causes them to K (like Hart) or get jammed (like Braun). If you told Braun to try to ground out 6-3 he could do it every at bat if he wanted to.

I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.

You really dont think a player can choke up and ground out if they want to? Have you ever played baseball?

[brwrsfan]

I think the odds of Marcum screwing up the bunt are far smaller than him screwing up swinging away.

This is the best point, some people are acting like Marcum has a good chance of reaching base. Small sample I dont care, career line of .138/.206/.224. How likely do you think it would be for the pitcher to walk Marcum there? Id say slim to none, meaning forget about the fancy .206 OBP and focus on the .138 average.

I don't think Marcum has a good chance of reaching base. But I think he has at least an average chance of putting the ball in play. If he puts the ball in play, it's likely a run. Granted, Marcum could very easily strike out. If he does, Hart still has the man on third with one out. He could ground into a double play then, and you don't score, but other than that, the sacrifice doesn't do anything but keep you out of the DP.

 

When you're down by two in that spot, I think you let Marcum swing. Maybe he gets a fluke hit (he gets 1 out of 10), or maybe he hits a sac fly or grounds into a DP and the run score. In any case, you're giving yourself two chances to score a run without getting a hit, not just the one (especially when that one player is someone that has proved to K a lot of the time).

 

[Outlander]

 

OK, teams fail in that spot 1/3 of the time. That's perfectly fine and sounds reasonable. But I believe the Brewers fail in that spot way MORE than 1/3 of the time, hence why I asked if anyone could find the stats. If we're at league average, that's fine. But I bet we're closer to 50/50 or worse. That's why I made the statement in the first place.

 

And yes, I also agree that fans should expect that run to score. If the infield is back, I don't think it's that unreasonable to expect a major league player to put the ball in play and drive in the run.

You are correct that the Brewers are closer to 50/50 but you are also overestimating how well every other team actually does in the same situation.

 

 

[rluzinski]

topper09er]

Fans should have ahigh expectation because it is not that hard to do. The problem is that no one in the majors changes their approach in these situations and try to drive the ball in the gap/hit HRs which causes them to K (like Hart) or get jammed (like Braun). If you told Braun to try to ground out 6-3 he could do it every at bat if he wanted to.

I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.

You really dont think a player can choke up and ground out if they want to? Have you ever played baseball?

Have you ever played in the majors? I think fans just spend way too much time screaming at their TV, claiming that it should be easy to do whatever.