Wily Peralta's looking good

[endaround]

Or they can do the smart thing and use part of the $20m coming of the books in salary and sign a decent SS without making them lose talent. Ramon Santiago can likely be had for less than $2m for example.

[dadofandrew]

They'll look to replace Prince with their new 1B and SS. They're unlikely to find anything close to Prince's power, so they'll look at OBP. Just like the A's did years ago, they'll need to replace Fielder's .400ish OBP and Yuni's .300ish OBP. That's 700. If Gamel/RH bat is 1B, their projection plus SS needs to equal 700.

 

You might be able to count on some improvement from Lucroy and McGehee, but I doubt they'll go with a good field/no hit SS. At very least, they'll need a .330-.340 OBP from that spot.

 

No idea what Hairston is thinking, but he'd be a great guy to have as a fallback already on the roster. There's a very limited group of SS's who can get on base a third of the time.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd like to see Narveson traded for a SS, and replaced by Peralta. He seems like the obvious choice since he is the 5th starter. The Brewers might get Manny Parra back in the bullpen next season, since it sounds like he will avoid major surgery this off-season, and could be ready to go by spring training. So, Narveson could very well be expendable. I'd keep Wolf because he is better and is a veteran pitcher.

 

I could really see Peralta in the Brewers 2012 plans. I don't believe the Brewers would be rushing him, either. Peralta seems to have reached a new level pitching wise. He seems ready for a good look at the least.

[Never Outhustled]

They'll look to replace Prince with their new 1B and SS. They're unlikely to find anything close to Prince's power, so they'll look at OBP.

Lance Berkman has a slugging% 30 points higher than Fielder this year.

[Never Outhustled]

Or they can do the smart thing and use part of the $20m coming of the books in salary and sign a decent SS without making them lose talent. Ramon Santiago can likely be had for less than $2m for example.

 

Santiago is awful. He'll be 32 next year, has a 642 OPS, and a 651 career OPS. Why sign a 32 year old replacement player to start for 6 months plus the post season? Then next year we'll have to do this all over again, but we won't have Wolf or Marcum to deal for a real SS.

 

Stop saying your option is "the smart thing", it's extremely condescending, and looks a little foolish when followed by Ramon Santiago.

[dadofandrew]

Narveson has oodles of value because he's so cheap. He makes $425K, and will next year, or close to it. Compare that to what the other SP's make. I don't see Chris going anywhere.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Narveson has oodles of value because he's so cheap. He makes $425K, and will next year, or close to it. Compare that to what the other SP's make. I don't see Chris going anywhere.

He has good trade value for the reasons you mentioned, and is a good 4/5 SP, but nothing more. I don't understand why people want to hold onto this guy when the Brewers have a viable replacement ready to take over who has better stuff and a higher ceiling and is very cheap as well. Also, starting in 2013 Taylor Jungmann could replace Randy Wolf and save the Brewers lots of cash if cost is your concern, and not to mention that Peralta would make the minimum.

 

Narveson is the most likely to be traded in my view.

[dadofandrew]

Jungmann has to throw a professional pitch or two before he's penciled into a MLB rotation.

 

Doug specifically mentioned Narveson's salary last September when asked about him returning. They handed him a spot even though Capuano could have been brought back for $2M or so. Those are the guys that allow them to have all those spendy players.

[homer]

Yeah, its way too early to talk about Jungmann. I'd rather get rid of Wolf before he hits his inevitable decline.

[Kricket755]

A 2013 rotation of Taylor Jungmann, Eric Arnett, Mark Rogers, Mike Jones, and Jed Bradley with Evan Frederickson as the power lefty longman out of the pen should be as talented as any in baseball.

[And That]

A 2013 rotation of Taylor Jungmann, Eric Arnett, Mark Rogers, Mike Jones, and Jed Bradley with Evan Frederickson as the power lefty longman out of the pen should be as talented as any in baseball.

Why are Jungmann and Bradley (or Arnett, for that matter) being lumped in with those other three guys? You can't pencil the former trio into an MLB rotation yet, but you also can't pencil them in as failures merely because the Brewers drafted them high.

[Kricket755]

It wasn't meant to imply Jungmann or Bradley are likely failures. I am a fan of both. I was just pointing out that at one time, those other names on the list were penciled into rotation spots due only upside and talent (I realize that Rogers and Jones were highschoolers so its a different situation) before they started their minor league careers. Every pitcher, especially those outside the elite of the top 5 picks, have an uphill battle. If one were to say that one of Jungmann/Bradley/Thornsburg/other would be ready to slot into the 2013 rotation, that would sound a little bit more realistic.

[dadofandrew]

If Jungmann or Bradley see the majors before 2014, they'd be in the top 1% of P's ever drafted. Not realistic.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Off topic, but...

If Jungmann or Bradley see the majors before 2014, they'd be in the top 1% of P's ever drafted. Not realistic.

I'm not suggesting that anyone be penciled into the 2013 rotation, but this statement gave me pause. A college pitcher from the top half of the first round might well be in the bigs three years later. You can look it up. From the 2008 draft, Matusz (4th overall) pitched in the bigs in 2009. Aaron Crow (9th overall) didn't sign and went into the draft again in 2009, but still hit the bigs in 2011 and made the all-star team. Andrew Cashner (19th) made his debut in 2010. Ryan Perry (21th) made the Tigers in 2009. Schlereth (26th) debuted in 2009 and has bounced between minors and majors. Two college pitchers have yet to debut, but both were later first rounders, Fields at 20 and Friedrich at 25.

All the college pitchers from the top half of the 1st round in 2009 have already pitched in the bigs (including Crow), though Alex White has only a few innings this year so far. The three pitchers from the bottom half of the first round have not, but the two not named Arnett are at least closer (one in AA, one in AAA). Chris Sale from 2010 is already an established big leaguer. Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer from 2011 are already in AA and look like they could pitch in the bigs in September if so desired. Guys who sign late might be a somewhat different story, but a quick path to the majors for a top 15 pick on a college pitcher is not exactly an outrageous expectation...in fact it's one of the reasons for using a high pick in that way.

Though I suppose that you would say that a college arm from the top 15 picks would be among 'the top 1% of Ps ever drafted' in terms of readiness for the majors...half of the first round is .5/50 which is indeed about 1% of the draft. So I agree with everything but the 'not realistic' I suppose.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Yeah, its way too early to talk about Jungmann. I'd rather get rid of Wolf before he hits his inevitable decline.

Considering that Doug Melvin said Jungmann could have helped the Brewers out this year if he would have signed earlier means that Jungmann should be in the discussion for 2012/2013. It's highly unlikely that the Brewers trade Wolf in his last season with the Brewers. Especially after the season he's having this year.

[Invader3K]

With the way Wolf is pitching this year, I don't think you can necessarily predict a sudden decline next season. I don't think he'll be as good as this year, but I still think he can be a very serviceable #4 type next year.

 

It does sound like Jungmann will be on a fast track to the majors, though.

[endaround]

Yeah, its way too early to talk about Jungmann. I'd rather get rid of Wolf before he hits his inevitable decline.

Considering that Doug Melvin said Jungmann could have helped the Brewers out this year if he would have signed earlier means that Jungmann should be in the discussion for 2012/2013. It's highly unlikely that the Brewers trade Wolf in his last season with the Brewers. Especially after the season he's having this year.

That my friends is bogus. There has been this sudden push to get draft picks to sign earlier to "get thier careers going". Its a bad argument. Missing 6 weeks of rookie ball of low A is pretty much meaningless. Weighing against that is the risk of injury and having a career flame out in 2 years.

[chickinbrickin]

Wow, I think people are massively overrating Peralta's hot streak right now. I don't want this to come across the wrong way because I'm a big fan of Wily and I'm thrilled that he's been so good lately, but let's not let a hot month or two overshadow his career numbers. This is a guy who has never put up an ERA under 3 at any level, unless you're counting his whopping total of three starts at AAA so far. Over his career (since his Tommy John surgery) he's been consistently good, but never dominant. I hope he's "figured it out" or "turned the corner" or whatever, but I'm not willing to hand him a rotation spot next year based on that hope. Remember how good Scarpetta looked in the second half last year? Remember Mark Rogers' late season run? Heck, remember Dan Merklinger's hot stretch? Pitchers can look unhittable for stretches and then crash back to Earth awfully quickly. We have a quality rotation already intact for next year. I'd like to see Peralta prove himself over a longer period before pinning my hopes on him.

He has also never posted an ERA over 4 since he was a 17 year old in rookie ball. He has also gotten better at every level and his K ratio has continued to improve.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Yeah, its way too early to talk about Jungmann. I'd rather get rid of Wolf before he hits his inevitable decline.

Considering that Doug Melvin said Jungmann could have helped the Brewers out this year if he would have signed earlier means that Jungmann should be in the discussion for 2012/2013. It's highly unlikely that the Brewers trade Wolf in his last season with the Brewers. Especially after the season he's having this year.

That my friends is bogus. There has been this sudden push to get draft picks to sign earlier to "get thier careers going". Its a bad argument. Missing 6 weeks of rookie ball of low A is pretty much meaningless. Weighing against that is the risk of injury and having a career flame out in 2 years.

It's not bogus if he begins his career in the Brewers bullpen and works his way into the rotation. The Brewers can limit his work load that way. That would allow him to be called up much sooner. It does look like Taylor Jungmann will be fast tracked to the Majors.

[endaround]

It is bogus. There is no room in the Brewers bullpen. MLB wants draft picks to sign early. Draft picks have every right not to. The 6 weeks has nothing to do with development and everything to do with the fact that draft picks get more leverage as the deadline apraoches.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers could always use another bullpen arm in September. If he would have signed earlier he "might" have had a chance to pitch in September, but he didn't. I think the Brewers like to have their prospects prove something in the minors before they call them up. That 6 weeks is very important in that regard. I don't think it's unrealistic at all that Taylor Jungmann could contribute to the Brewers ball club as soon as late next season out of the bullpen, and possibly as a starter in 2013 for the reasons I previously stated.

[trwi7]

That 6 weeks isn't important at all if they stick him in Helena or Wisconsin. Even the 6 weeks in the bullpen in Huntsville or Nashville would be almost meaningless. Also, why would they waste a 40 man roster spot on a player they just drafted when it's not necessary?

[Menace II Sobriety]

It's not bogus as to how signing early could help the development of a player and get him to the big leagues faster. At the same time the players that got drafted have earned the right to negotiate up until that deadline to get themselves the best deal possible. If anything they should move up the signing deadline because most negotiations for 1st rounders barely start until the last couple of days anyways so all of the negotiations are on an arbitrary schedule.

 

 

I think that Melvins' main point was that signing early can get you to the big leagues and the big money quicker (admitting that the player needs to think like this is his one chance to get paid). In my opinion getting your first major league contract out of the way and than getting into a few professional ballgames would be best for a player the year he was drafted. Even if they only pitch in 3-4 games and go a few innings per game. This would allow them to get to know the people within the clubhouse, franchise, and community. After a few outings they could be shut down and have an entire offseason to digest all of this and be ready for next year, or they could sign late and have to digest it all come March and April.

[trwi7]

Menace II Sobriety wrote:

---

I think that Melvins' main point was that signing early can get you to the big leagues and the big money quicker

And if Melvin thinks this he is completely wrong, especially with pitchers. The flame out rate is too high to not get every penny you can in a signing bonus. If that means you start your professional career a couple months late, so be it.

[BillScottCanRake]

I don't want to turn a Peralta thread into one about Jungmann, but I have three problems with Jungmann getting a September call up this year. I assume that Melvin would probably have the same issues, regardless of what he told the press.

 

First, while adding Jungmann to the 40-man roster this year wouldn't have used an option this year, it would have pretty much ensured an option was used next year. And then, if he's not ready at the beginning of 2013, it uses another option. When 2014 rolls around, you suddenly have lots less margin for error.

 

Additionally, for at least 2012, you have a guy taking a 40-man roster spot who a) didn't need to be and b) will more than likely not contribute anything at the ML level. 40-man roster spots are, I think, too precious to use in such a manner.

 

Finally, having another arm or two when the rosters expand September 1 is a fine idea. There are some guys already on the 40-man roster who can help without adding someone Jungmann.

 

If he's ready sooner rather than later, he can be added to the 40-man roster and recalled to Milwaukee then. If not, at least he's not wasting a 40-man roster spot and using options unnecessarily.