Wily Peralta's looking good

[prophet]

Man, Peralta has been dealing for a while now. He looks good especially since being brought up to Nashville. So........what should Melvin maybe try to get for him? The last sentence should maybe be light blue since I'm only half serious.

[And That]

So........what should Melvin maybe try to get for him?

A nice real estate agent in Milwaukee. He's not going anywhere.

[prophet]

Well, I'm still a firm believer that no prospect is untradeable no matter how good they are in AAA.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Well, I'm still a firm believer that no prospect is untradeable no matter how good they are in AAA.

Yeah, and I'm sure if the Marlins offer Mike Stanton Doug will accept.

But Peralta is all but assured to see the MLB club, and do so in September.

 

[And That]

Well, I'm still a firm believer that no prospect is untradeable no matter how good they are in AAA.

I'm a firm believer that the Brewers will need to fill between 1 and 4 rotation spots within a few years.

[DHonks]

I'd plan on Peralta in AAA for next year, get some starts when people get hurt, contribute in Sept, and then move into Wolf's spot in 2013

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers don't need to hold back Peralta as insurance. That's what Estrada is for. The Brewers love Peralta, and he'll open next season in the rotation. Marcum or Wolf will be dealt, likely for a real SS. My guess is it's Marcum.

[endaround]

Or the Brewers can do the smart thing and not trade any of their pitchers since more than likely 7 or 8 different pitchers will get multiple starts and it can buy you and extra year of Peralta.

[filthyfrog]

Yeah, there's no rush with Peralta. He's only made a handful of starts in AAA, he's still young, and I'd like to see him prove his success over a longer period of time. The Brewers are past the point of learning on the job due to shortages at the Major League level. Wily should stay in AAA until at least next June. (I'm not saying he shouldn't be a September call up; I'm just saying he should start next year in AAA since we already have a full rotation.)

[igor67]

It's potentially worth exploring trading a starter to see if at the high price of pitching you can come out ahead, but there's a lot to be said for having Peralta as your first bullet if someone goes down, and Estrada as your second back-up as well. Plenty of seasons teams see a couple of rotation guys get dinged.

 

If we do a trade I'd look for one clear major league roster upgrade and a pitching prospect at a minimum.

[Never Outhustled]

Or the Brewers can do the smart thing and not trade any of their pitchers since more than likely 7 or 8 different pitchers will get multiple starts

So the smart thing is to hide quality talent in case there's an injury while a bad SS hurts the team all six months of the season, plus possibly the post-season? Are you really saying the difference between the starts that may or may not be made by Estrada as the 6th starter and Fiers as the 7th starter will be cataclysmic in comparison to those made by Peralta as the 6th starter and Estrada as the 7th starter, and those results will eclipse any possible gains made by aquiring a quality SS?

 

 

and it can buy you and extra year of Peralta.

Peralta will already get 30some days of service time this year, and it only takes 172 days, not the full 183, to count as a full year. I don't see him staying the minors that long, especially when he could be dominant as a reliever. The Brewers have shown repeatedly that there not concerned with a pitcher being able to stretch out slowly to step into a starting role. Like it or not Peralta will be on next years Brewers in some capacity.

[DHonks]

X, I'd rather pursue trading Corey Hart and/or Casey McGehee for a starting shortstop. We have adequate replacements for both who actually profile as better OBP guys and happen to balance the lineup by batting from the left-side

 

I'd expect Peralta next month in Milwaukee, along with occasional visits next year while he's refining things in AAA. Remember, he's been a pitcher living on "potential" moreso than results until July 1st . Heck, Mark Rogers has had that much success, he just hasn't done so lately.

[Invader3K]

The problem with trading McGehee is that his value isn't going to be that high after this season. Maybe he could be included in some sort of package deal. I'm not crazy about trading Hart (I think he tend to get undervalued by a lot of people), but it would depend on what another team is willing to give up, ultimately.

 

Peralta is looking more and more to me like a guy who isn't going to need a ton of time in the minors next season. Is he going to pitch anywhere over the winter? I could see him competing for a rotation spot in spring training with how good he's been this season.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers don't need to hold back Peralta as insurance. That's what Estrada is for. The Brewers love Peralta, and he'll open next season in the rotation. Marcum or Wolf will be dealt, likely for a real SS. My guess is it's Marcum.

I completely agree that either Marcum or Wolf will be traded, but I think it's more likely will be Wolf and I'm not sure it will be for a "'real" SS. They are on pace for 95 or so wins with a "fake" SS.

 

No, I think Wolf will be dealt to save money to pay Prince. Wolf would probably bring a mid level pitching prospect or perhaps a near major league ready guy with a lower ceiling that would add to starter depth.

 

I would also point out that with Peralta in the rotation along with 4 holdovers from this year, that Estrada, De la Cruz, Fiers and one or two others that could emerge (Merklinger for instance) provide decent depth. I'm not concerned in the least about Peralta's limited AAA time. Peralta has 32 combined starts between AA and AAA. That's plenty That's about the equivalent of the two young stalwarts on the D-Backs, Kennedy and Hudson and 3 more than Gallardo had at AA and AAA combined.

 

Keep in mind too, that no amount of depth is going to cover for the long term loss of any of the top 3 guys. Just ask the Cardinals. Depth is nice to have but doesn't win championships.

[filthyfrog]

Wow, I think people are massively overrating Peralta's hot streak right now. I don't want this to come across the wrong way because I'm a big fan of Wily and I'm thrilled that he's been so good lately, but let's not let a hot month or two overshadow his career numbers. This is a guy who has never put up an ERA under 3 at any level, unless you're counting his whopping total of three starts at AAA so far. Over his career (since his Tommy John surgery) he's been consistently good, but never dominant. I hope he's "figured it out" or "turned the corner" or whatever, but I'm not willing to hand him a rotation spot next year based on that hope. Remember how good Scarpetta looked in the second half last year? Remember Mark Rogers' late season run? Heck, remember Dan Merklinger's hot stretch? Pitchers can look unhittable for stretches and then crash back to Earth awfully quickly. We have a quality rotation already intact for next year. I'd like to see Peralta prove himself over a longer period before pinning my hopes on him.

[gregmag]

Frog, I agree that I'd like to see Peralta keep this level of production up before I get confident that he really is this good. But I don't think the comparisons you're suggesting hold much water. Peralta is young, his scouting reports back up his production, and he's healthy. Also, we aren't talking about putting him at the top of the rotation. We're probably talking about making Narveson our #4 and Peralta our #5, or maybe even breaking him in as a long reliever, with Estrada, Fiers, and de la Cruz as insurance. That's hardly pinning our hopes on him.

 

X, I don't get why you think our only two realistic options are trading Peralta or having a bad SS. I agree that an SS upgrade is our most important offseason priority, notwithstanding Briggs' belief that since we're winning, we don't have to worry about anything, and of course Peralta is our best minor league asset. But we have other trade chips, as others have mentioned, and we're talking about upgrading a replacement-level player at best. I think at the stage Peralta's at, he has more value to us as a player than as a trade chip.

 

I agree with Invader 3K that this is a terrible time to trade McGehee, unless of course someone flat out overbids for him. Keep him next year as a RH 1b/3b part-timer. I'm heavily on the Gamel 1b (or RF) / Green 3b bandwagon, but having a credible RH backup can only help those guys succeed. Trading Hart . . . I wouldn't have thought before the season that would be a good option, but suddenly he's a guy who has had two good years, is signed to a reasonable contract, and does things we can probably replace without too much trouble. Seems like a good thing to explore.

[homer]

I completely agree that either Marcum or Wolf will be traded, but I think it's more likely will be Wolf and I'm not sure it will be for a "'real" SS.

God I hope so. I mentioned this in another thread but his value will never be higher. He's on the downside of his career and is due to fall off soon. Trade him while you can still get something for him. Marcum will still be serviceable and relatively cheap for another year.

 

As for McGehee, isn't he due for arby next year? He's fine as long as he's cheap but I'd trade him before he starts costing more than his replacement.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is a guy who has never put up an ERA under 3 at any level, unless you're counting his whopping total of three starts at AAA so far.

If only his fastball had been recorded in the upper 90s at numerous times in his MiLB career, including this season, and experts/scouts had endorsed how good he is.

 

Using MiLB stats only to evaluate how a young player is progressing leaves quite a bit of room for error. He's only 22 this season, & has succeeded at AA & AAA this year -- that's far more important that whether or not he's had an ERA under 3 somewhere. Peralta doesn't profile as a #1 starter or anything, but at this point does profile as like a #3 or #4. He's very legit, & this season's stats really do a nice job of illustrating that.

[endaround]

I don't get why people are so hyped to trade away pitching depth. The Brewers have zero depth after Peralta. Wolf isn't going to bring much back and at 1 year/ $10m its worth it to buy one more cheap year of Peralta and protects you against injury. The Brewers have been exceptionally lucky this season with pitcher injuries with only Greinke missing significant time and Estrada able to cover all the starts. They are the only team to have used only 6 starters this year. What would have happened of Narveson cuts his thumb in April and if it was more serious causign him to miss more time? What if a pitcher develops a blister problem? The Brewers don't have anything else to really spend money on and will have a decent amount freed up next year anyway.

[homer]

The Brewers have zero depth after Peralta.

 

You don't consider Fiers depth?

[jjfanec]

The Brewers have zero depth after Peralta.

 

You don't consider Fiers depth?

I am not sure of who else is being mentioned but if this is in regard to trading starter so Peralta can start you would still have Estrada as depth. Fiers would be there as well. Thornburg will be in AA next year. So there would still be some depth

[filthyfrog]

Frog, I agree that I'd like to see Peralta keep this level of production

up before I get confident that he really is this good. But I don't

think the comparisons you're suggesting hold much water. Peralta is

young, his scouting reports back up his production, and he's healthy.

Also, we aren't talking about putting him at the top of the rotation.

We're probably talking about making Narveson our #4 and Peralta our #5,

or maybe even breaking him in as a long reliever, with Estrada, Fiers,

and de la Cruz as insurance. That's hardly pinning our hopes on him.

Breaking him in as a long reliever would not count as pinning our hopes on him, but handing him a rotation spot without (in my opinion) him really earning it would be. I'm not saying it would make or break the season, but each of your five starters plays a vital role over the course of the season. I don't think Peralta's done enough yet to justify that role.

If only his fastball had been recorded in the upper 90s at numerous times in his MiLB career, including this season, and experts/scouts had endorsed how good he is.

Yes, scouts like him and I do too. But the fact remains that he has never been a dominant pitcher for an extended period of time. DHonks said it best when he said he's been living on potential. He has lots of it and has really shown it over his last six or eight starts (I can't find a game log for his AA stats). But it's too early to tell if that's a hot streak or a true improvement.

 

I'm not saying he would be an utter failure if we handed him a rotation spot next Spring. I am saying that there's no need to rush him since we have a quality rotation under contract, it would do him good to continue to refine his pitches before hitting the big time, and it would do the team good to make sure he really is ready, to have him as insurance for injuries, and to delay his arbitration clock.

[dadofandrew]

I don't see any way they pencil a guy into the rotation with 3-4 AAA starts, especially a 22-23 year-old. He might end up starting if they lose a SP or two to injury, but not in the top five.

[kramnoj]

This is a guy who has never put up an ERA under 3 at any level,

 

How did you decide that this should be a reason not to use Peralta? Marcum never had an ERA under 3 for a full season in the minors. Neither did Wolf,

[Never Outhustled]

gregmag1 wrote:

 

X, I don't get why you think our only two realistic options are trading Peralta or having a bad SS. I agree that an SS upgrade is our most important offseason priority, notwithstanding Briggs' belief that since we're winning, we don't have to worry about anything, and of course Peralta is our best minor league asset. But we have other trade chips, as others have mentioned, and we're talking about upgrading a replacement-level player at best. I think at the stage Peralta's at, he has more value to us as a player than as a trade chip.

I agree with everything your saying Greg, that's why I said I think they'll explore trading Marcum or Wold for a SS. I never said deal Peralta, I said he'll start for us. Finding a worthwhile SS to deal for is the hard part though, I guess.