Thoughts on the 2012 roster

[Warning Track Power]

Let's say Green performs on par with McGehee and we receive on par production from our SS than YuBet has given us. Can a combination of Gamel and Gindl give us anything close to what Prince and Hart have to overcome those shortfalls at 3B and SS? Per FanGraphs, Prince is on pace for 35 HR, 121 RBI, Corey is on pace for 23 HR and 60 RBI. That is 58 HR and 181 RBI that Gamel and Gindl will have to make up. I think at best, we could realistically expect Gamel and Gindl to give us about half the HRs and 2/3 of the RBI that Prince and Hart would in 2012.

Not saying I agree with putting 3 rookies in the lineup but using HR/RBI to strengthen your argument doesn't really work. RBI are affected by whether guys are on base in front of you, how many times that occurs, etc. If Gamel were hitting 4th this entire year (and assuming Prince wasn't there to drive in all those runs), I bet he would've finished around 100. Most cleanup guys should finish with at least 85 RBI just because of the number of opportunities. I'm not saying Gamel will hit clean-up next year or that I want him to but I just think RBI is a bad argument to use. And I also think you are ignoring any improvements that Gamel/Gindl would contribute to on defense.

Yes I am absolutely excluding defense because I can't speak to it because I have never seen Gamel/Gindl v. Fielder/Hart. I can't make that comparison fairly.

 

As for HR and RBI, to me HR is a demonstration of production and your ability to put a run on the board. RBI, while dependent on people being on base, also demonstrates your ability to produce, whether it be via a hit or out, in getting those runners in. Please use a different stat to prove me wrong that Gamel/Gindl can even approach half of Fielder/Hart's production? I would love for you to prove me wrong because I think that my current viewpoint makes the Brewers worse and I am all for any stat that makes the Brewers look better minus Fielder/Hart.

[dlk9s]

I think I'd just blow up the team, sign a bunch of really cheap rookies with high ceilings, then play the Lovely Ladies every game to maximize revenue and eventually power up every player until I have a team full of Hall of Famers.

[Baldkin]

As for HR and RBI, to me HR is a demonstration of production and your ability to put a run on the board. RBI, while dependent on people being on base, also demonstrates your ability to produce, whether it be via a hit or out, in getting those runners in. Please use a different stat to prove me wrong that Gamel/Gindl can even approach half of Fielder/Hart's production? I would love for you to prove me wrong because I think that my current viewpoint makes the Brewers worse and I am all for any stat that makes the Brewers look better minus Fielder/Hart.

RBI's are a team function, and this magical idea that Fielder is someone who has some amazing clutch skill when last year he couldn't even top 100 RBI's last year.

 

If you're going by RBIs, Rickie hitting 4 will at least double the RBI's he gets, and without Gomez hitting 2nd in the lineup for 2 months, he'll have even more opportunities. Gamel hitting 5th will get WAY more RBI's than McGehee has this season, as (last I checked) he was in the top 5 in the league in AB's with RISP.

[reillymcshane]

Keep it simple for next year. This team is good. Even losing Prince won't change that. So don't make too many changes.

 

Gamel for prince

Resign Hairston, saito, Hawkins

Cut yuni, add a guy like Barmes, or a young SS with a good glove

Green competes w/ McGehee. (or McGehee can platoon with Gamel or Green)

Keep rotation intact, add an arm in the pen (peralta, scarpetta, whomever)

Gindl for Kotsay

 

Improve the defense, run out the same rotation, give some young players a chance. We can finance this. We'd be able to make a move if someone fails.

[Raw Biz]

Yes I am absolutely excluding defense because I can't speak to it because I have never seen Gamel/Gindl v. Fielder/Hart. I can't make that comparison fairly.

 

As for HR and RBI, to me HR is a demonstration of production and your ability to put a run on the board. RBI, while dependent on people being on base, also demonstrates your ability to produce, whether it be via a hit or out, in getting those runners in. Please use a different stat to prove me wrong that Gamel/Gindl can even approach half of Fielder/Hart's production? I would love for you to prove me wrong because I think that my current viewpoint makes the Brewers worse and I am all for any stat that makes the Brewers look better minus Fielder/Hart.

I agree with everything Baldkin said. And I used RBI in my previous statement to show that Gamel could come close to Fielder's production (depending on which year you choose). If you put Gamel at cleanup, he should drive in close to 100 runs just because of the sheer volume of opportunities. So I still think RBI is a bad stat to use for your argument.

[Warning Track Power]

You guys make this sound that Prince is just another guy and that his production level is merely a function of his place in the lineup. I understand that you believe RBI is a team function. I understand your prerogative. However, neither of you, Baldkin or Rawbecht, have given me a reason to believe that Gamel/Gindl could replace Fielder/Hart's production. Is this merely your perspective and opinion? I'm find it hard to believe that the Brewers can replace an MVP candidate and 2x All-Star's production with a couple of guys in Triple AAA that aren't even a blip on the top 100 prospects in baseball list.

[RockCoCougars]

I like Gamel, but he will come nowhere close to the production of Prince. HR and RBI aside, Prince's OBP is through the roof. Personally, I'd be thrilled if Gamel could hit .280 with 15-20 home runs in a full season and comes within 75 points of Prince's OBP- somewhere in the .340 to 350 range. Even in the best case scenario, Gamel is much closer to Lyle Overbay than Prince Fielder. If Prince walks, I think that you have to add another power bat to the lineup- the main question is, where? The off season free agent market isn't exactly teeming with these guys either. Most of the guys with some power are either long in the tooth 1B or outfielders. Unless you move one of the current starters, I think we are looking at third or short- no one really out there. It's most likely going to have to be down through a trade.

[monty57]

I'm with 'ya reilly. Keep it simple.

 

WTP, I also think it's important for Hart to stick around next year. He's a proven MLB hitter whom we should have no problem affording next year. I think it's a given that Gamel will start at 1B, and I think Green starting at 3B with McGehee getting starts at 1B/3B makes us better all around. But there is really no reason to trade Hart just to bring Gindl up. If Gindl were a can't miss prospect or if we needed the salary relief, then maybe I could see it, but we shouldn't do it just to do it.

[logan82]

You guys make this sound that Prince is just another guy and that his production level is merely a function of his place in the lineup. I understand that you believe RBI is a team function. I understand your prerogative. However, neither of you, Baldkin or Rawbecht, have given me a reason to believe that Gamel/Gindl could replace Fielder/Hart's production. Is this merely your perspective and opinion? I'm find it hard to believe that the Brewers can replace an MVP candidate and 2x All-Star's production with a couple of guys in Triple AAA that aren't even a blip on the top 100 prospects in baseball list.

Nobody thinks Gamel can replace Fielder's production. He can replace part of Fielder's production and the rest can be made up in other areas. Mainly SS and 3B.

 

Fielder is one of the worst 1B in the league. Without knowing anything about Gamel we could safely assume he would be an improvement on defense. WE know a little more than that. Mainly that he is athletic, compared to Fielder, and most of his problems on defense are problems throwing. Moving him to 1B puts him where he will not have to throw much.

 

Keep it simple for next year. This team is good. Even losing Prince

won't change that. So don't make too many changes.

 

Gamel for prince

Resign Hairston, saito, Hawkins

Cut yuni, add a guy like Barmes, or a young SS with a good glove

Green competes w/ McGehee. (or McGehee can platoon with Gamel or Green)

Keep rotation intact, add an arm in the pen (peralta, scarpetta,

whomever)

Gindl for Kotsay

 

Improve the defense, run out the same rotation, give some young players a

chance. We can finance this. We'd be able to make a move if someone

fails.

That's what I would do. That would be the goal anyway. I don't think Saito and Hawkins will return.

[MNBrew]

Reillymcshane & WTP are making tons of sense to me, by & large. I foresee relatively little change outside of a Prince departure.

 

Frankly, Hart & McGehee are strong rebound candidates. Everyone's bashing of McGehee seems rather extreme given his recent (relative) surge & productivity again, improved defense (relatively) lately (in that his uber-ugly fielding slump coincided with his most putrid stretch of hitting and now is a bit further in the rear-view mirror), and the fact that I put plenty of stock in his VERY productive '09 & '10. I love what Taylor Green is doing in AAA, and I want him pushing for serious MLB playing time in 2012, but I don't see him being a given to start over McGehee at all -- and given that we usually just see stats whereas Melvin & the other organizational decision-makers know these guys inside & out, I'd be inclined to think their faith is more in Casey (and very justifiably so).

 

I honestly believe with minimal changes, the Brewers should be just as strong contenders in 2012 as they initially projected to be this year.

 

I also think, based on '11 vs. the previous few years, that the team can live with a hole or two in its lineup FAR MORE than any holes in its pitching staff, esp. its rotation. For that reason, I'd be hugely surprised if the rotation didn't remain the same next year w/ every effort made to extend Greinke & Marcum.

[RWeeksFan23]

You guys make this sound that Prince is just another guy and that his production level is merely a function of his place in the lineup. I understand that you believe RBI is a team function. I understand your prerogative. However, neither of you, Baldkin or Rawbecht, have given me a reason to believe that Gamel/Gindl could replace Fielder/Hart's production. Is this merely your perspective and opinion? I'm find it hard to believe that the Brewers can replace an MVP candidate and 2x All-Star's production with a couple of guys in Triple AAA that aren't even a blip on the top 100 prospects in baseball list.

Nobody thinks Gamel can replace Fielder's production. He can replace part of Fielder's production and the rest can be made up in other areas. Mainly SS and 3B.

 

Fielder is one of the worst 1B in the league. Without knowing anything about Gamel we could safely assume he would be an improvement on defense. WE know a little more than that. Mainly that he is athletic, compared to Fielder, and most of his problems on defense are problems throwing. Moving him to 1B puts him where he will not have to throw much.

 

Keep it simple for next year. This team is good. Even losing Prince won't change that. So don't make too many changes. Gamel for prince Resign Hairston, saito, Hawkins Cut yuni, add a guy like Barmes, or a young SS with a good glove Green competes w/ McGehee. (or McGehee can platoon with Gamel or Green) Keep rotation intact, add an arm in the pen (peralta, scarpetta, whomever) Gindl for Kotsay Improve the defense, run out the same rotation, give some young players a chance. We can finance this. We'd be able to make a move if someone fails.

That's what I would do. That would be the goal anyway. I don't think Saito and Hawkins will return.

Why don't you think Saito and Hawkins will return?

[Roderick]

add a guy like Barmes, or a young SS with a good glove

I don't see any Barmes types that are going to be available as free agents from scanning the baseball prospectus lists. Either they are ancient like Carroll, Renteria or they are pricey like Reyes, Rollins.

 

Be interesting what happens with Furcal. Only played 100 games in 1 out of 4 years. Looks like he has a team option.

[monty57]

If Prince walks, I think that you have to add another power bat to the lineup- the main question is, where?

 

I think a SS who plays good defense and gets on base a lot would be a better target than a "slugging SS." It would change the face of the team, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. This season, Prince is once again getting on base at a tremendous clip, only to have McGehee & Yuni unable to produce behind him. Let's just say we made a big run at Reyes and got him. He's currently 100 OBP points and 230 OPS over what Yuni's given us this season. If we added him at the top of the order, we could put Weeks, Braun, Hart, Gamel, Morgan/Gomez, McGehee/Green, Lucroy in any order behind him, and it would amount to a lot of runs scored. To the RBI arguement above, our #3/4 hitter combo would be weaker next year, but it would have more RBI opportunities. Meanwhile, our 5/6/7/8 stretch would likely be stronger than this year's group.

 

Reyes is 28 and is making $11MM this season. I don't know what it would take to get him, or if it's possible. He's at an age where he may be willing to sign a 4-year deal, which could make it doable for the Brewers. Regardless of whether or not Reyes is a possibility, our biggest area of improvement next year has to be SS or 3B. I doubt they add a 3B, as they will likely go with some combo of McGehee and Green, so an improvement at SS will be a big part of how our offense shapes up. With the way the lineup looks to stack up I'd prefer the OBP/top-of-the-order guy who will allow us to have Hart & Weeks in the 3 & 5 holes (in whatever order). If we can find that top-of-the-order SS, I think our offense will still be fine, and may be a little more consistant than this year.

[homer]

I don't see any Barmes types that are going to be available as free agents from scanning the baseball prospectus lists.

Isn't Barmes himself available?

[logan82]

Why don't you think Saito and Hawkins will return?

They are old so I am not sure how much longer they can remain effective. So I guess I am not sure we will want to resign them and if we do we may not want to offer enough to keep them.

[jmeks23]

homer]

I don't see any Barmes types that are going to be available as free agents from scanning the baseball prospectus lists.

Isn't Barmes himself available?

Yes, he signed on a one year deal. Unless they have an extension in place, which to me is highly doubtful considering the financial situation of the Astros.

[reillymcshane]

I don't see any Barmes types that are going to be available as free agents from scanning the baseball prospectus lists.

Isn't Barmes himself available?

Yes, barmes is a FA. He doesn't qualify as a Type B or Type A. I would think he'd like a chance to play on a better team than Houston - but you never know.

 

You could also look at low level trades - target a guy like Brendan Ryan. He would cost something in a deal, but I'm not sure what. A guy like Ryan, you can give him 120-130 starts. Give the others to Hairston (who can also grabs starts all over the field when guys need a break or are hurt).

 

Ryan or Barmes at SS, with Gamel at 1B, would improve defense a lot. Plus if you have Green at 3B, full time or on a platoon, that would help as well.

[monty57]

RWeeksFan23 wrote:

Why don't you think Saito and Hawkins will return?

They are old so I am not sure how much longer they can remain effective. So I guess I am not sure we will want to resign them and if we do we may not want to offer enough to keep them.

 

Just a guess, but I think Hawkins will look for a multi-year deal, which I hope the Brewers don't offer. If Saito would come back on another 1 yr / $1.5MM deal, I'd jump all over that. Basically, I'd like to have either or both back on one-year deals, and I think that's more likely with Saito.

[MNBrew]

Tagging onto my point above re: how McGehee's playing much better (which supports my feeling that he's still considered the starting 3B next year regardless of Green or Gamel, tho' I very much want to see those two on the team):

 

offense:

- 7/26-8/24: .296 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI

- outside of his putrid May & June (.199 BA), McGehee's BA for the year is .275 -- not stellar, but still in the realm of acceptable for him

 

defense:

- through 6/20: 13 errors (slightly <3 months)

- 6/21-8/24: 4 errors (slightly >2 months)

 

What Casey really had was a nasty-ugly-killer two-month, two-way (offensive & defensive) slump. Otherwise, he's played rather respectably. And given that production, I'm not concerned about him being in the lineup at all . . . . but I'd still agree that having competition from Green & Gamel to push him & anyone else is still a good thing.

[Raw Biz]

Tagging onto my point above re: how McGehee's playing much better (which supports my feeling that he's still considered the starting 3B next year regardless of Green or Gamel, tho' I very much want to see those two on the team):

 

offense:

- 7/26-8/24: .296 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI

- outside of his putrid May & June (.199 BA), McGehee's BA for the year is .275 -- not stellar, but still in the realm of acceptable for him

 

defense:

- through 6/20: 13 errors (slightly <3 months)

- 6/21-8/24: 4 errors (slightly >2 months)

 

What Casey really had was a nasty-ugly-killer two-month, two-way (offensive & defensive) slump. Otherwise, he's played rather respectably. And given that production, I'm not concerned about him being in the lineup at all . . . . but I'd still agree that having competition from Green & Gamel to push him & anyone else is still a good thing.

So he's had 3 average months and 2 bad months? You can't just ignore 2 months of data and say other than that, he's been fine. I was a big McGehee fan when we first signed him. I looked at his minor league numbers and while they weren't amazing, I thought he could be a valuable addition. And he was for the last two years but this year not so much. He could improve on this year's numbers next year but I think he will be closer to this year than the past 2. I also think that Green would post better numbers (because of age, stats in the minors, makeup, etc.). I don't want to see McGehee cut but I would like to see some sort of platoon next year.

As to WTP, I don't think I said that I thought Gamel would replace Fielder's production. I was just saying that RBI was a bad stat to use to support your argument. I think RockCo makes a good point in Gamel won't touch Prince's OBP. However, WTP mentioned that Gamel wasn't even a blip on the Top 100 prospects. Well that's because he's not really considered a prospect anymore because he's had some time in the majors. A couple of years ago he was pretty highly regarded. Obviously things change over a few years (i.e. Brandon Wood) but I still think he will be a valuable contributor.

My main point is basically that I don't think losing Prince will make them go from a division winner to fringe playoff team. Pitching is key and we will still have it. While Gamel won't put up Prince's numbers, I think he will more than hold his own. I could see .280/.350/.450 with 20 HR/85 RBI (depending where he hits in the order).

 

[MNBrew]

So he's had 3 average months and 2 bad months? You can't just ignore 2 months of data and say other than that, he's been fine. I was a big McGehee fan when we first signed him. I looked at his minor league numbers and while they weren't amazing, I thought he could be a valuable addition. And he was for the last two years but this year not so much. He could improve on this year's numbers next year but I think he will be closer to this year than the past 2. I also think that Green would post better numbers (because of age, stats in the minors, makeup, etc.). I don't want to see McGehee cut but I would like to see some sort of platoon next year.

I'm not ignoring 2 months of data. It was a slump, and a very ugly one. But you're suggesting that those 2 months (now nearly 2 months behind us) provide more than a sufficient justification for a prediction that his "norm" going forward will be more like this year than the past 2 years plus over half of this year? I can't agree with that.

 

For two full years plus over half of this year, he's been fine. I'm all for open competition & that he have to keep earning his spot. But I just don't see throwing the baby out with the bathwater, which seems to be what several folks have been advocating (in many threads, not necessarily here, and I'm not putting those words into your mouth/text).

 

I really like that Green & Gamel are pounding AAA pitching and that for the first time in a few years, we've got some really solid-looking depth at the corner IF spots. That reality sure beats the present SS situation!

[RockCoCougars]

Barmes would be a solid get, but judging from how strangely Houston was acting about Barmes at the deadline, they've probably got a 4 year/$50 million extension in the can with him or something. I think Reyes will end up costing nearly as much as Prince. If so, I'd prefer giving the money to Prince. Outside of this contract year, Reyes has never been that great at the plate, and I think he's overrated in general. He seems like he could end up being a major bust.

 

As for Hawkins and Saito, I'd be open to both. I can't see either commanding that much cash or more than a year plus an option year on the open market at their age.

[monty57]

For two full years plus over half of this year, he's been fine.

 

McGehee by month (avg/OBP/SLG/OPS):

 

April - .280/.343/.409/.752

May - .218/.275/.318/.593

June - .177/.214/.208/.422

July - .253/.306/.360/.666

August - .289/.348/.518/.866

 

Season - .241/.294/.356/.650

 

If you take his one 3HR game from August 3 out, his August becomes .265/.330/.392/.722

 

I'd say he had a so-so April, horrible May-June, and so-so August with one really good game. I am glad it came against St. Louis.

 

After this season, I doubt they'd get much for him in trade, but I also doubt he gets a big payday in arby. Therefore, I believe his biggest value to the team in 2012 will be on the Brewers roster. Since we'll have two young LH corner IF, I think there will be plenty of playing time for all three of them at 1B/3B.

[Bernman23]

So he's had 3 average months and 2 bad months? You can't just ignore 2 months of data and say other than that, he's been fine. I was a big McGehee fan when we first signed him. I looked at his minor league numbers and while they weren't amazing, I thought he could be a valuable addition. And he was for the last two years but this year not so much. He could improve on this year's numbers next year but I think he will be closer to this year than the past 2. I also think that Green would post better numbers (because of age, stats in the minors, makeup, etc.). I don't want to see McGehee cut but I would like to see some sort of platoon next year.

I'm not ignoring 2 months of data. It was a slump, and a very ugly one. But you're suggesting that those 2 months (now nearly 2 months behind us) provide more than a sufficient justification for a prediction that his "norm" going forward will be more like this year than the past 2 years plus over half of this year? I can't agree with that.

 

For two full years plus over half of this year, he's been fine. I'm all for open competition & that he have to keep earning his spot. But I just don't see throwing the baby out with the bathwater, which seems to be what several folks have been advocating (in many threads, not necessarily here, and I'm not putting those words into your mouth/text).

 

I really like that Green & Gamel are pounding AAA pitching and that for the first time in a few years, we've got some really solid-looking depth at the corner IF spots. That reality sure beats the present SS situation!

It's not just 2 months of data. He posted a .666 OPS in July. That's barely over his season # in that department which you're agreeing has been sub-standard. He'd be bottom 5 in the majors among 3rd base starters extrapolating the July OPS over the entire season. So he's had 3 bad months. And he was average in April, posting an OPS that placed him 16th in the majors. 3 bad months (2 particularly atrocious), 1 average month, 1 almost complete good month = a VERY bad 5/6 of a season.

 

Granted, that is a smaller sample than in which he's been an above average major league 3rd baseman. However, you're exaggerating the length of time in the majors where he's been successful. He had far from a full season of AB's in 2009; <60% of plate appearances as he had the following year. So we're talking closer to a year and a half of success. As far as counting over half this year in his favor, as aforementioned that's far from accurate, and you're employing a double standard by cherry picking months this season where he played better while ignoring months in the previous years where he was worse. Let's be consistent and call it .83 of a season of poor play vs. 1.59 of strong play.

 

However, overall in McGehee's professional career there is far more data to suggest he's illegitimate than legit. In 4 minor league seasons, not once did he post an OPS over .776, before surprisingly having a good first year and a half plus in the majors. The only difference between Scott Podsednik's minor league to 1st year and a half in the majors is that Podzilla spent a couple more years in the minors. Now, for McGehee, this is the 5th season where he hasn't looked like on the way to, or an average major league 3rd baseman. Nearly 5 bad seasons vs. just over 1 and a half good seasons.

 

In comparison, Taylor Green, surrounding the hamate injury, has had 3 good professional seasons vs. a bad near half season (his first as a 19-year old pro).

 

So Taylor Green probably will be the Brewers' best bet for success at 3B in 2012. They shouldn't have qualms about naming him a starter as opposed to Casey McGehee.

[Bernman23]

On the issue of who to start at 1B, to me Gamel is a no brainer. He never had a bad season in the minors, he hit .760 in his only extended major league opportunity, and since the year he accomplished that he has raised his AAA OPS by almost 100 points (improving proportionally each year). I think an .800+ OPS is a conservative projection for him if he starts on opening day and Roenicke sticks with him (as he does w/ the veterans). And he'll do it on a minimum contract. If you don't elect to start him, then you'd have to trade him instead, and what would he fetch as a 26-year old minor leaguer. He wouldn't net near as much as he's worth from those who don't understand the circumstances as to why he's remained in the minors this long. Mat Gamel should be your starter at 1B in 2012.