Thoughts on the 2012 roster

[adambr2]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm not that keen on re-signing Prince.

 

First of all, if we've learned anything the last 3 years, it's that pitching is king. Having Braun and Prince back to back in the lineup hasn't done us an ounce of good if they haven't had the starting pitching to back them up.

 

Also, I don't like dashing people's hopes, but in my opinion, any idea of Prince taking a hometown discount to stay here is unlikely at best, absurd at worst. I haven't seen any indication from Prince the last 6 years that he's going to settle for anything but top dollar, and we're talking about a 6 year contract minimum that has a chance to be a pretty bad deal on the back end of it. Prince isn't going to settle for $18M a year to give us a chance to keep Greinke and Marcum. He's had an outstanding contract year and IMO he fully intends to cash in on it. He wouldn't take $20M a year when we offered it, why on earth would he take it now that he finally made it to free agency?

 

I'm also concerned about a post contract year dropoff. Prince's career path has generally been an MVP caliber year followed by a pretty pedestrian year by his standards. Let him walk, take the draft picks and the savings, and use it to get a decent SS and keep some of the pitching that got us here in the first place. I want no part of a bidding war that ends up with us tying up $25M of our payroll in him each year for the next 6-7 years. Life will go on without him and we can still contend.

[MNBrew]

- I still think the odds are better that Fielder is gone, but it's not a given. Much depends on the other offers he gets.

- I don't share many folks' dread at the idea of Casey McGehee as our starting 3B. (No, I'm not blind.)

- Corey Hart's production & role (Gindl, Schaefer, etc.) should be far easier to replace than McGehee's, and trading Hart's $8M would come in very handy. Not saying it has to happen, but I see it as a logical move (esp. if he'd be the RH hitter w/ power Atlanta's been coveting for 2 years and such a move would net us one decent pitcher).

- It's SO worth keeping Greinke & Marcum beyond 2012 if at all possible. Pitching is what's made the difference. Those two are both aces.

 

Assuming Prince is gone....

OF: Braun, Morgan, Hart (or Gindl/Schaefer/etc.)

IF: McGehee, ??? at SS, Weeks, Gamel at 1B

C: Lucroy

bench: Gomez (OF), Hairston (OF/IF), Green (corner IF), Kottaras, Wilson (or someone comparable, middle IF)

SP: same as this year

RP: Axford, Saito, Hawkins, Loe, Estrada, 2 of Dillard/McClendon/Kintzler/Braddock/Parra/Peralta/Fiers/Rivas/etc..... (I'd take K-Rod back, but I don't see that as likely since he wants to close)

[Never Outhustled]

Berman at 1B for me. Deal Gamel to the Dodgers for SS Justin Sellers. Gamel won't be a top 1B, but he's better than Loney. Sellers is decent and cheap.

[RWeeksFan23]

Any chance Casey McGehee is non-tendered?

[nate82]

Berman at 1B for me. Deal Gamel to the Dodgers for SS Justin Sellers. Gamel won't be a top 1B, but he's better than Loney. Sellers is decent and cheap.

While I like Berkman wouldn't a Marcum to the Red Sox for Iglesias be a better trade or a Marcum to the Yankees for Yadil Mujica and Austin Romine. Not the greatest trades but I believe Mujica can be a very good defensive SS his bat though may not be anything special. Romine would be the biggest chip the Brewers would get and he could easily be the best Brewers catching prospect. He is much better defensively than Lucroy is and offensively he will probably be better also.

Not sure I would do that deal for Sellers with the Dodgers though.

There is no way the Brewers release McGehee as he will still be cheap it just doesn't make any sense to release McGehee as he still has value.

[Invader3K]

I really don't see us signing Berkman. I think he either stays in STL or retires.

[Never Outhustled]

I really don't see us signing Berkman. I think he either stays in STL or retires.

 

Berkman is not even considering retirement, as has stated so much. Why would he? He is completely healthy, has a 976 OPS, and will be looking at an 8 figure salary. If he signed with the Brewers he could pursue a ring. It might be smarter to sign Berkman than even pursue an extension with Prince. Berkman is a bad defensive OF, but play a pretty good 1B. It would be nice to improve defensively.

[Invader3K]

I thought I had read some talk that Berkman was looking at possibly hanging it up, but I think I'm probably just wrong at this point.

 

Here's an article from yesterday making it sound like Berkman wants to stay in STL.

[Warning Track Power]

If we lose Prince for Gamel and we lose K-Rod for ???, and we are not upgrading any positions (i.e. shortstop), then naturally we should be worse than this year. From your post, I'm guessing we still get Hawkins/Saito (or equivalents) in the pen. Our pitching is good enough that we'd probably still have a shot at the Central, if Gamel could produce decent numbers, Green/McGehee improve on McGehee's 2010 numbers and we don't have injuries. Therefore, if we could give ourselves a boost by upgrading SS in 2012, I think we should be in the playoff hunt.

 

Someone at the SS position who plays good defense will make our pitching even better (which is scary), and if we could find one who can play defense and get on base, we could have ourselves a more balanced offense, and one that certainly could be good enough to put up enough runs for our pitching staff.

 

Prince is a great offensive player, and I don't want to downplay what he's meant to this team. However, Gamel should put up decent numbers and will be our "property" for five seasons for around 2% the price of Fielder. The tailor-made time to let a great player go is when you have a young player to replace him and you don't have players to replace other positions. We don't have anyone to replace Greinke or Marcum at anywhere near the level Gamel should replace Fielder, so in my opinion, they're just more pressing. Losing Greinke, Marcum and Wolf in the same offseason is something that the Brewers will have no chance of recovering from.

My question was more, if all rosters stayed the same in 2012 and the Brewers received identical production in 2012 that they did in 2011 ( i.e. McGehee .240, 10 HR, 60 RBI, Braun .330, 25 HR, 85 RBI, Gallardo 3.40 ERA) in 2012 and simply substituted Gamel for Fielder, how good should we expect the 2012 Brewers to be? No upgrades or boosts to SS or 3B. Identical production in 2012 that we are receiving from all positions minus 1B. The question is more about what should our expectations be in 2012 if our roster stays the same minus Fielder. Even with Greinke and Marcum in 2012, will the Brewers take that big of a hit minus Prince's production that they can still win the NL Central?

 

Put another way, if Fielder was subtracted from the 2011 Brewers and Gamel was the 1B from Opening Day until now, what would our record be? Would we still be in 1st?

[Baldkin]

My question was more, if all rosters stayed the same in 2012 and the Brewers received identical production in 2012 that they did in 2011 ( i.e. McGehee .240, 10 HR, 60 RBI, Braun .330, 25 HR, 85 RBI, Gallardo 3.40 ERA) in 2012 and simply substituted Gamel for Fielder, how good should we expect the 2012 Brewers to be? No upgrades or boosts to SS or 3B. Identical production in 2012 that we are receiving from all positions minus 1B. The question is more about what should our expectations be in 2012 if our roster stays the same minus Fielder. Even with Greinke and Marcum in 2012, will the Brewers take that big of a hit minus Prince's production that they can still win the NL Central?

 

Put another way, if Fielder was subtracted from the 2011 Brewers and Gamel was the 1B from Opening Day until now, what would our record be? Would we still be in 1st?

The difference between Gamel (say, .850 OPS with average defense) and Fielder (1.000 OPS and below average defense) is probably about 2 wins on a full season. Give or take.

 

Carlos Santana's 2011 is probably about what we could expect from Gamel next season. Prince is at 4.2 WAR on the season, Santana is at 3.0.

[fondybrewfan]

I think it is asking an awful lot of Gamel to expect an .850 OPS in Year #1 as a full time starter. I was thinking more like .750

 

If he had Gamel starting all year this year with a .750 OPS would we be anywhere near the position we are right now? If the downgrade from Prince to Gamel is really only 4 games over the course of the year we would be sitting pretty.

[homer]

If the Brewers lose Prince, I think they need to shore up the infield defense significantly and play to their strength - pitching. Start Green at 3rd, find a stop gap shortstop with an awesome glove that won't kill you at the plate (Barmes?), and then you could trade McGehee, Gamel, and maybe Wolf (his value will NEVER be higher) for a 1st baseman or start Gamel at 1st and trade McGehee and Wolf for prospects or a good shortstop you have control over for a few years.

 

I realize trading Wolf sort of runs counter to the "rely on pitching" theme but he is due to fall off a cliff and I'd rather the Brewers get something for him while his value is high than wait and have him fall off the cliff next season. I'm fine with only one lefty in the rotation. Put Peralta or Fiers in there as the number 4 guy.

[Warning Track Power]

I'd take Carlos Santana's 2011 season with 30 games to play for Mat Gamel in 2012.

 

AVG: .238

OBP: .347

SLG: .437

OPS: .784

HR: 19

RBI: 62

 

Not exactly all-star numbers, but seeing as Gamel should be hitting in the #6 spot or so, it's not the worst thing in the world. It is depressing when you think of replacing Prince's numbers with that though.

[FVBrewerFan]

Just responding to various comments posted so far:

 

McGehee- Lots of talk about trading him, but they will probably better off keeping him. What would you really get? The time to trade him would have been after last season, as some here suggested.

 

SS- I'll repeat my desire to go after Tejada. If the Mets sign Reyes, Tejada is just too good to rot on the bench. You're not getting any power, but you get everything else...including defense.

 

Wolf- I agree this off-season would be a good time to "sell high." As with any trade, you just have to get fair value in return.

 

Gamel/Green/Berkman- Sounds stupid maybe, but to me it depends on whther the Brewers win the Worls Series this year. If they do, I want to go with Gamel and Green, and for that matter Gindl as the 4th OF. I don't consider it rebuilding, just that I would be more willing to take a chance on all these guys at once with a WS under my belt. If no WS, then bring in Berkman, I'm fine with that if we can get him. Green/McGehee would make a perfect platoon, except Casey can't hit LHP. Just play with it in April, and those things usually take care of themselves.

[rluzinski]

If we lose Prince for Gamel and we lose K-Rod for ???, and we are not upgrading any positions (i.e. shortstop), then naturally we should be worse than this year. From your post, I'm guessing we still get Hawkins/Saito (or equivalents) in the pen. Our pitching is good enough that we'd probably still have a shot at the Central, if Gamel could produce decent numbers, Green/McGehee improve on McGehee's 2010 numbers and we don't have injuries. Therefore, if we could give ourselves a boost by upgrading SS in 2012, I think we should be in the playoff hunt.

 

Someone at the SS position who plays good defense will make our pitching even better (which is scary), and if we could find one who can play defense and get on base, we could have ourselves a more balanced offense, and one that certainly could be good enough to put up enough runs for our pitching staff.

 

Prince is a great offensive player, and I don't want to downplay what he's meant to this team. However, Gamel should put up decent numbers and will be our "property" for five seasons for around 2% the price of Fielder. The tailor-made time to let a great player go is when you have a young player to replace him and you don't have players to replace other positions. We don't have anyone to replace Greinke or Marcum at anywhere near the level Gamel should replace Fielder, so in my opinion, they're just more pressing. Losing Greinke, Marcum and Wolf in the same offseason is something that the Brewers will have no chance of recovering from.

Put another way, if Fielder was subtracted from the 2011 Brewers and Gamel was the 1B from Opening Day until now, what would our record be? Would we still be in 1st?

Easily. No player is worth 10 wins over even a full season.

[monty57]

McGehee- Lots of talk about trading him, but they will probably better off keeping him. What would you really get? The time to trade him would have been after last season, as some here suggested.

 

I have to agree here. He really would be a good complement to Gamel & Green for the Brewers next year, and shouldn't cost too much. My only worry is whether or not Roenicke would allow him to be the small end of a platoon when both LHers are essentially rookies.

 

Wolf- I agree this off-season would be a good time to "sell high." As with any trade, you just have to get fair value in return.

 

For the right deal, I'd consider trading Wolf, but I really like the idea of having a good MLB rotation with a good "insurance" replacement at AAA. I think we've gotten kind of lucky with how good Estrada has been when filling in this season and with how few injuries we've had to our starting pitchers. While I'm happy to have had this luck, I wouldn't count on it for next year. I'd let Peralta play in AAA, pitching for the Brewers when injury dictates. If we weren't in a realistic playoff hunt, I'd be all over trading Wolf before he leaves as a FA, but since we'll go into next season with a good roster, I'd keep him. Plus, he does have an option year. If we aren't able to extend Greinke and Marcum, we may need to exercise Wolf's option simply to avoid utter collapse by losing 60% of our pitching staff in one season.

 

Really, the best thing I think Melvin can do this offseason is find a good SS and tell Roenicke to get used to the idea of two young players getting significant time at 1B/3B. Oh, and extend Greinke and Marcum.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think we need to look at things from a financial standpoint going into the future. Right now we have Weeks, Braun, and Hart locked up to big contracts. We also have Morgan/Gomez and McGehee heading for pay increases in arbitration. Assuming we either keep Betancourt or pay to get a different SS, and lose Fielder, the only starting position players we will have at minimal salaries are Lucroy and Gamel. We have 4 starting pitchers making good money, and Narveson at a bargain for another year. We then have Ax also at a minimal salary, and can probably fill the rest of the pen with low salaried guys and bargain veterans like we have right now in Saito and Hawkins. Basically, some guys will have to go if we plan to lock up guys like Greinke and Marcum, and also account for escalating salaries of other players. If we somehow keep Fielder, then we really need to save money.

 

First thing I would do is trade Wolf and Hart as many people have said. Replace Wolf with a cost effective prospect like Peralta, and replace Hart with Schafer/Gindl. That would save quite a bit of money. McGehee won't go anywhere if tendered, because no one will really want him. So keep him and Green at 3B. Go with the cheap option in Gamel at 1B, and go with cheap options on the bench like Hairston, Gindl, and maybe Farris.

 

I think if all this happens we'll be able to lock up Greinke and possibly Marcum. Either that or we should look to trade Marcum instead of Wolf. We have a better chance of getting a good SS prospect for Marcum anyway. I wouldn't trade both though. 1 spot should be easy to fill, but I wouldn't try filling 2 at this point. So basically we role with a rotation of Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum/Wolf, Narveson, Peralta, which isn't bad. Then we have an infield of Gamel, Weeks, new SS/Yuni, and McGehee/Green. Then an outfield of Braun, Morgan/Gomez, and Schafer/Gindl. A bench of possibly Hairston, Kottaras, McGehee/Green, Morgan/Gomez, and Schafer/Gindl. A bullpen of Ax, possibly Saito and Hawkins if they don't retire, Loe, Braddock, a long reliever like Estrada, and then fill-in the rest with cheap vets or guys like McClendon and Kintzler.

 

This really is a pretty good team still all things considered. Most importantly it's a mostly affordable team, at least for the near future. I really have a hard time believing that Doug won't trade some guys this offseason to cut costs to resign others. We have some talent in AAA ready to come up and fill the holes. I think a team like this is pretty realistic for next year.

[monty57]

PEM, the thing is, Wolf is only signed through next year, when Greinke and Marcum are already under contract. Extending them will not be effected by trading Wolf. Hart is under contract for two more years, so I agree he may need to be traded to extend Greinke & Marcum, but not necessarily until after next year.

 

The only reason we would need to trade Wolf or Hart this offseason for financial concerns would be if we were to re-sign Prince or sign a high-priced player at another position (like SS). Unless one of these occur, I would not trade Hart this offseason unless we get a really good return & we are fairly certain that someone like Gindl or Schafer are ready to take over. There is a good chance that we will already be going with two young bats in Gamel & Green, so I'd probably rather see Hart get one more year in Milwaukee before we trade him away next offseason. By then, it seems that at least one of our minor league OFs should be pounding on the door ready to play for the Brewers, and Gamel & Green should have a lot of MLB PAs under their belt.

 

Melvin can make this work financially, but as you noted we don't have a lot of pre-arby players hanging around allowing us to add many more big contracts. We will need guys like Green, Gamel, Gindl (the killer G's?), Peralta, Thornberg, etc to step in over the next few years. If they don't, we will probably need to start trading some good MLB players with big contracts for prospects. As the Weeks, Braun, Yo, etc contracts start to get bigger, we won't be able to pay million dollar contracts for our role players, relievers and bench players.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, that's a good point on Hart. I wouldn't mind holding on to him another year either. I mainly would trade him because of Schafer/Gindl, but another year in AAA for them wouldn't hurt too much. I'd rather keep the Morgan/Gomez platoon in CF than Hart in RF too. Mainly because Morgan/Gomez are far superior defensively to Hart, Schafer, and Gindl. But also they will come cheaper.

[Warning Track Power]

In my opinion sticking too many rookies in the lineup next season is a recipe to see Greinke and possibly Marcum walk away with Wolf after 2012 because I don't think the Brewers are competitive in 2012 in that scenario. If Prince walks, Gamel immediately becomes the 1B and Hart staying is a must. I like Gindl too but I think the best thing the Brewers did when Rickie, JJ, Prince, Braun and Hart started coming was to break them in individually and not all at once. JJ started 2005 as the SS, Rickie got some ABs about midway through 2005, Hart and Prince came in 2006, Braun in 2007.

 

This team without Prince may not be a playoff front runner but it is a playoff contender. Subtract Prince AND Hart and replace them with Gamel and Gindl and I think we are destined to be a low 80s win team. Subtract Prince, Hart and McGehee and replace them with Gamel, Gindl and Green and my expectations are under .500. 3 rookies, while I believe they all will be decent, is not an effective strategy to compete and maximize their contributions. A gradual break-in plan where Gamel begins 2012 as the 1B and Gindl and Green being midseason callups next season is a much more effective strategy in ensuring long term success for the Brewers and Gamel, Gindl and Green.

[istanbultaye]

JJ got to start in 2005 because there were 0 options at SS, and defensively he was ready. Offensively, it wasn't so much 'readiness' that was a concern as opposed to the fact that he had missed almost the entire prior year. Weeks then got called up in June after trading away Junior Spivey. The only reason Prince wasn't up more was because he was 'blocked' by Lyle Overbay, but he was up to DH. Braun wasn't even drafted until 2005, so there wasn't any realistic chance that he would have been called up. So, it doesn't seem to me that there was a particular plan of 'spacing' them out.

 

In my opinion, offensively, the Brewers are currently more capable of handling a black hole or two in the lineup than the lineups 3-5 years ago, as evidenced by this season. That said, I don't think we want to get rid of half of our current lineup and go with all rookies either. However, if/when Prince leaves, the only legitimate alternative I see at 1B is Mat Gamel. It would be a drop back to something more along the lines of Lyle Overbay circa '04/'05, but I don't think any one can deny that Overbay was a solid producer back then. Defensively, he'd fall somewhere in between Prince and Lyle.

 

Assuming we get some sort of solid veteran shortstop alternative to Yuniesky, I think the Brewers lineup could easily afford to take a 'chance' on Green platooning with McGehee at 3B. If Green isn't succeeding and McGehee is, then simply option Green back to AAA for more 'seasoning', and go with McGehee unless he starts playing like this year again.

 

I would avoid messing with the outfield at this time, since it is, a bigger part of the lineup than the infield. (2 of 6 solid contributors in IF this year, 3 of 5 solid contributors in OF, counting bench players).

 

/blueon Platoon Yovani and Gamel at 1B... or if Yo is pitching against a LHP, Greinke can take the platoon... ;-) (I still think Yo should bat 6th in the lineup of players we currently have, when he pitches).

[gregmag]

WTP, I don't get your logic in compounding the downside of rookies. Let's say we're a 90-win team this year. You're saying we'll be an 80-win team or worse with the three rookies in the lineup. Prince to Gamel I agree will cost us, but I think three wins is a reasonable estimate, assuming Gamel improves on Prince's defense. I have a hard time imagining that Green will be worse next year than McGehee has been this year. I'm pretty sure he'll be at least somewhat better, but let's call it a wash for the sake of argument. So that leaves Hart to Gindl -- Hart's a bad defender and baserunner at this point, I'm guessing about a three-win player for the year. If Gindl gave us anything at all -- an outcome we could help along by platooning him -- it seems like a bad scenario would be a two-win loss. So I can see the rookies costing us five wins, all else equal.

Now, that's a lot, for sure -- but five wins vs. ten is no trivial difference.

 

Then you have to keep in mind that these moves wouldn't occur in a vacuum. We could improve the team a lot by upgrading at ss and the bench. If we trade Hart, we get somebody for him who presumably improves the team. If we don't pay Fielder, we have more money to spend. So the rookies bring opportunity benefits with them. Getting a three-win shortstop in the shuffle would bring us back to two wins down, and bench improvements could get us close to even.

 

I'm not actually in favor of putting all three rookies in the everyday lineup. I think we should hold on to McGehee and start him at 1b or 3b every time we see a LHP. I think we should hold onto Hart unless we're blown away, and if the blow-away offer doesn't include his replacement, I would use some of our Prince savings to fill that spot, maybe working in Gindl as a fourth or platoon OF depending on how he looks. I think this plan would employ a good mix of rookies and veterans. But even if we did go with three rookies, I don't get how that plan would somehow doom our chances. Rookies are baseball players too.

[Warning Track Power]

Greg:

 

While I buy into advanced metrics such as WAR, I am also very old school and hold a belief that Fielder, Hart and McGehee's role on the team extends greater than their production versus their replacement's production. I think that given a scenario where Gamel, Gindl and Green would be opening day 2012 starters on the Brewers, you would see Braun, Rickie, Lucroy and Nyjer all press and not be as relaxed in their roles on the team as they all would be looked at to be consistent all season to overcome the type of ups and downs that are inherent to almost all rookies* (save the true great rookie seasons like Pujols in 2001 or Braun in 2007). I don't believe Gamel, Gindl and Green would be terrible, I just think the Brewers and teams in general are better to bring along rookies 1 or 2 at the most, at a team. I especially think this would be better given that I don't believe anyone outside of the Brewers organization believes any of the three to be can't miss prospects. Look I wouldn't have a problem with these guys all getting a shot in 2012. I believe Gamel will be a solid if unspectacular option for us at 1B and I think Gindl and Green could be decent upon their arrival.

 

However, given the scenario of all three being up at once. Let's say Green performs on par with McGehee and we receive on par production from our SS than YuBet has given us. Can a combination of Gamel and Gindl give us anything close to what Prince and Hart have to overcome those shortfalls at 3B and SS? Per FanGraphs, Prince is on pace for 35 HR, 121 RBI, Corey is on pace for 23 HR and 60 RBI. That is 58 HR and 181 RBI that Gamel and Gindl will have to make up. I think at best, we could realistically expect Gamel and Gindl to give us about half the HRs and 2/3 of the RBI that Prince and Hart would in 2012. Additionally, without Prince and Hart and McGehee in the lineup I strongly believe that Braun and Weeks production would dip.

 

Am I against the idea of having all three by 2013? Absolutely not. I just am not ready to have all three starting at the same time when budget is there to keep Corey, especially if Prince leaves, and the team would still have a dynamic top of the rotation in Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum and a solid back end in Wolf and Narveson.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm also intrigued what they do with Scarpetta, I don't believe he is ready for the majors but I don't know if they can get much for him in a trade either but he is out of options.

 

Others here know more than I about this subject, but I believe the Brewers are trying to get the MLB to grant an additional option year for Scarpetta. If they don't get it, then who knows what happens. Probably he either gets a bullpen role which he's probably not ready for, or they let him become a FA. He's from Rockford, IL.

 

Sorry to veer off topic, but I never put this together until I saw Rockford in this post. Anybody remember his dad, Dan? He was also a Brewer farmhand who got lots of ink in 'What's Brewing' back in the day. I met him in Rockford at some point in the 80's.

[Raw Biz]

Let's say Green performs on par with McGehee and we receive on par production from our SS than YuBet has given us. Can a combination of Gamel and Gindl give us anything close to what Prince and Hart have to overcome those shortfalls at 3B and SS? Per FanGraphs, Prince is on pace for 35 HR, 121 RBI, Corey is on pace for 23 HR and 60 RBI. That is 58 HR and 181 RBI that Gamel and Gindl will have to make up. I think at best, we could realistically expect Gamel and Gindl to give us about half the HRs and 2/3 of the RBI that Prince and Hart would in 2012.

Not saying I agree with putting 3 rookies in the lineup but using HR/RBI to strengthen your argument doesn't really work. RBI are affected by whether guys are on base in front of you, how many times that occurs, etc. If Gamel were hitting 4th this entire year (and assuming Prince wasn't there to drive in all those runs), I bet he would've finished around 100. Most cleanup guys should finish with at least 85 RBI just because of the number of opportunities. I'm not saying Gamel will hit clean-up next year or that I want him to but I just think RBI is a bad argument to use. And I also think you are ignoring any improvements that Gamel/Gindl would contribute to on defense.