Thoughts on the 2012 roster

[GAME05]

i thought that Berkman loved it in St. Louis and was more inclined to retire if he wasn't resigned there?

 

any remaining money not spent on a Marcum and/or Greinke extension i think would be best put not into upgrading the starters, but adding depth to both the bullpen and bench. i'd like to have decent infield backups in case McGehee and Green don't hit well at 3rd and same with Gamel at 1b.

[fondybrewfan]

The obvious major question marks going into next year are the bullpen and 1st base.

 

If we do lose Prince could we make up for it with a league average 1st basemen and improved performances at 3rd and SS? How much is Mark A really willing to throw at Prince?

 

Could we package Narveson & Hart for a SS or 1B, slide Green in at 3rd, Peralta as the 5th starter, and Gamel in RF (Assuming an entire spring training in RF would make him suitable to play out there)

 

Could we trade Wolf to free up some room to resign Prince?

 

We have to replace a large chunk of the bullpen; only Axford and Loe are locks to be back although I am sure Estrada has a leg up on the long man role again.

 

A ton of questions going into next year; but the good news is we could have the entire rotation of a 2010 playoff team back and will likely be able to improve SS and 3rd almost by default.

[monty57]

I fully assume Melvin will do something that will completely shock everyone, but that said, I expect most of the team to remain intact for another playoff run in 2012. I'd give Gamel 1B and Green 3B with McGehee getting plenty of starts backing up both positions. I doubt McGehee could return a lot in trade, so we're probably better off using his RH bat to supplement the two lefties in Gamel & Green. I'd probably use Gindl as the backup corner OF, but we'll probably bring in some random 38-year-old who most of us won't realize was still in baseball. Gindl seems to be the current heir-apparent to Hart in RF and does make trading Hart a real possibility. I'd guess we'll start with Hart in RF in 2012, as we probably won't add another rookie (along with Gamel & Green) in a year that we should be making a playoff push. To me, unless we need the money to sign Fielder, trading Hart after next year makes more sense.

 

I really think the Brewers are going to make a push for a top-tier SS for 2012. Whether that means making a run at someone like Reyes or making a trade, I think this is where our "offseason surprise" will come, as it's really the #1 spot we could upgrade to try to offset the loss of Fielder. I'm not familiar with the Mets' system, but if the Mets have an up-and-comer in Tejada, why would they trade him in favor of Reyes? They're hurting for money and not likely to make any realistic playoff push for a while, so why not play the young guy and let Reyes go?

 

In the 'pen, I'd offer Saito and Hawkins one-year deals, and hopefully they'll both return. If not, I'm sure we'll bring in at least one "name" pitcher to work a setup role. Hopefully, guys like Kintzler and Braddock will be able to play significant roles next year, but this year is showing that it's really nice to have some good, reliable arms ahead of Axford. Rogers in the 'pen is another intriguing idea, as I believe we'd lose him if something isn't worked out.

 

I too believe we'll make a big push at extending both Greinke and Marcum (although that would be more for the "Starting lineup for 2013 & beyond" thread). If the Brewers feel that Peralta is ready, I could see a possibility of trading Wolf (one year left plus option) or Narveson, but I'd certainly demand a high price tag after the seasons they're having (and Narveson's still cheap with a lot of control). That could really backfire on them if Peralta falters, and it's the opposite of what Melvin's been doing lately, so my guess would be that we go into 2012 with our current rotation with Peralta in AAA. Then, when an injury occurs, we will be able to bring up a really talented pitcher. Estrada has done admirably this season, and will probably be in the 'pen next year, but it would be nice to have someone like Peralta as our "AAA insurance."

[patrickgpe]

Its hard at this point to predict what they will do, I think Green, Schafer, and Gamel will be the minor leaguers up on opening day. I could see Peralta fighting for a roster spot but I think our rotation will be the same as this year.

 

I like the idea of moving McGehee to 1st and letting Green have a shot at 3rd if Gamel struggles at 1st though.

 

I can't see them bringing back Yuni B but at this point I don't see them making any changes minus Fielder not coming back.

[clancyphile]

The thing is... given that Jered Weaver extended with the Angels... is a Prince Fielder return really out of the question, especially if the Brewers are a contender?

 

I'm not entirely sure. If Prince stays, then the Brewers look very strong.

[fondybrewfan]

I am getting more optimistic by the day regarding Fielder. MLBTraderumors has a post up today saying the Nationals are not going to pursue Fielder and they had a post the other day listing the reasons there might not be a whole lot of teams involved. I know it is mostly speculation but there seems to be a perfect storm of circumstances building that would allow Fielder to stay in MIL.

 

If Fielder does stay; it will set off a huge chain of events that would likely include the Brewers trying to shed salary in other areas (With Hart, Wolf, McGehee (before he gets expensive) being the obvious candidates to be traded. They would have to shed some salary if they wanted to keep Marcum and/or Grienke around. The good news is if Fielder does sign we have capable replacements for Hart (Schaefer/Gindl/Gamel/Etc), Wolf (Peralta), and McGehee (Green) if we wanted to get rid of them plus I would have to imagine we could get a decent return for those guys as well.

[brewmann04]

My only Prediction is the Prince will remain a Brewer in 2012.

[CheezWizHed]

What is the point of this post?

 

The point is quite simple. 90% of the time for the past 20 years, the only baseball interest the Brewers generated in late August was trades, rookies and what do we do in the offseason.

 

I simply posted that I'm enjoying not doing that this year. No where did I castigate anyone for doing it.

 

If you don't want to sound like a jerk, don't type like one.

[Outlander]

I think I would leave Peralta in AAA for 2012 and then he'll be in the rotation in '13 after Wolf/Marcum/Greinke leave. I'm also intrigued what they do with Scarpetta, I don't believe he is ready for the majors but I don't know if they can get much for him in a trade either but he is out of options. I would like to see Green and Gamel start and have McGehee available for both postitions just in case.

[clancyphile]

I am getting more optimistic by the day regarding Fielder. MLBTraderumors has a post up today saying the Nationals are not going to pursue Fielder and they had a post the other day listing the reasons there might not be a whole lot of teams involved. I know it is mostly speculation but there seems to be a perfect storm of circumstances building that would allow Fielder to stay in MIL.

 

If Fielder does stay; it will set off a huge chain of events that would likely include the Brewers trying to shed salary in other areas (With Hart, Wolf, McGehee (before he gets expensive) being the obvious candidates to be traded. They would have to shed some salary if they wanted to keep Marcum and/or Grienke around. The good news is if Fielder does sign we have capable replacements for Hart (Schaefer/Gindl/Gamel/Etc), Wolf (Peralta), and McGehee (Green) if we wanted to get rid of them plus I would have to imagine we could get a decent return for those guys as well.

I'm not sure a trade would be necessary. They could do the job. Weaver's a Boras client, and he signed a good deal for all around. If Prince stays, what's to say he doesn't sign a deal that lets the Brewers keep Grenike and Marcum?

[Bernman23]

Put me in the camp with those who want to buy out Betancourt. That means whoever we'd sign in his place would theoretically be overpaid by 2 million dollars, but as a mid .600's OPS hitter who doesn't adjust his approach to a situation, plays horrible defense, and is slow on the basepads, he'd be overpaid by about 5 million dollars if he's kept.

 

As a leadoff hitter, Betancourt has taken 1 WALK in 96 plate appearances. He has taken 0 walks in 17 chances w/ the bases loaded. His BA w/ RISP has been below his overall average the last 4 years. I can't find his execution rate w/ a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, but that seems terrible as well from observation. He's the perfect example of a player who is even worse than his sub-standard OPS. It's really remarkable that the Brewers have achieved so much success with him, often in the sixth spot in the lineup. They've won in spite of him.

 

Defensively, he's 21st of 23 qualifiers in both zone rating and range factor.

 

This year, and throughout his career, Betancourt has been caught stealing just as many as he's swiped, reflective of how bad of a baserunner he is.

 

He just hurts the team in every conceivable area.

 

I don't have any replacements in mind off the top of my head, but it's time to eat the 2 million dollars and move on from the Yuni B. era.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm not sure a trade would be necessary. They could do the job. Weaver's a Boras client, and he signed a good deal for all around. If Prince stays, what's to say he doesn't sign a deal that lets the Brewers keep Grenike and Marcum?

I love the guy but Prince doesn't strike me as the type to leave too much on the table in terms of dollars. If he was that guy, he would've already been re-signed for the 5 year $100MM contract that was reportedly offered last season. Even at that, a 5 year $100MM ($20MM AAV) would likely be stretching the Brewers ability to re-sign Greinke and Marcum.

 

If Fielder were to re-sign, I would fully expect both a trade of Wolf and Hart, in effort to re-sign Greinke after 2012. Marcum would be the fall back option if Greinke were to walk. No chance they re-sign all three.

[monty57]

I'm also intrigued what they do with Scarpetta, I don't believe he is ready for the majors but I don't know if they can get much for him in a trade either but he is out of options.

 

Others here know more than I about this subject, but I believe the Brewers are trying to get the MLB to grant an additional option year for Scarpetta. If they don't get it, then who knows what happens. Probably he either gets a bullpen role which he's probably not ready for, or they let him become a FA. He's from Rockford, IL. Even if he goes FA, I doubt anyone would sign him to a MLB deal, so there's a chance that he would sign his minor league FA deal with the Brewers for the chance to stay close to home. Of course, some bottom-of-the-barrel team may sign him to a MLB deal and let him sink or swim if they think the potential upside outweighs the hammerings he'd take.

 

I'm not sure a trade would be necessary. They could do the job. Weaver's a Boras client, and he signed a good deal for all around. If Prince stays, what's to say he doesn't sign a deal that lets the Brewers keep Grenike and Marcum?

 

I doubt Fielder would take a home-town discount, and even if he does, I don't think there will be any way to afford Fielder and extensions for Greinke and Marcum. If the TV deal's as good as some say, maybe, just maybe we could squeeze in Fielder and one of the two (probably Marcum), but not all three. Braun, Yo and Weeks will all start to get expensive and we do need to field a 25-man roster without having a really strong minor league system.

[JohnBriggs12]

Tim Dierkes on his MLBtraderumors chat when pressed for one team he thinks will sign Fielder: "Brewers".

 

He also gave an outstanding answer to this burning question: "If the Brewers lock up Prince (along with the rest already under deals) will they ever be able to build a team around them when Greinke and Marcum move on?"

 

Dierkes answer: "Of course, what's to stop Melvin from drafting/discovering a few decent prospects and flipping them for SPs like he did with Greinke/Marcum? Or a few SPs could come out of the woodwork like they do every year in MLB."

 

Exactly my sentiments Tim. You nailed it.

[paul253]

Dierkes answer: "Of course, what's to stop Melvin from

drafting/discovering a few decent prospects and flipping them for SPs

like he did with Greinke/Marcum? Or a few SPs could come out of the

woodwork like they do every year in MLB."

I have serious reservations about re-signing Fielder because I think it means they can't resign Greinke and Marcum.....definitely not both. You can't build the team around Braun and Fielder. They tried that for 4 years and it didn't work. This organization needs to be built around pitching. If they can sign Fielder while still locking up Greinke and Marcum, I'd be thrilled. But if the option is two of the three, I'd have to let Fielder go.

 

What's to stop Melvin from drafting a few decent pitching prospects? I don't know...what's been stopping him from doing it the last 8 or 9 years? There is Peralta of course. Thornburg seems like the real deal. Odorizzi and Jeffress were good prospects. Rogers made it last season before falling off dramatically this year. Scarpetta is ok I guess. Gallardo obviously. That's 7 pitchers. But only one of them has experienced any major league success. My point being that developing prospects to trade is easier said than done. Any eventually, like now, you're going to run out of prospects that other teams want. All of the trades for the aces (Greinke, Marcum, Sabathia) were built more around position players than pitching prospects and because of that the system is barren of high ceiling position prospects. And the pitchers they currently have in the sysyem, only two of them really stick out to me (not including the newest draftees). It's not a coincidence to me that the year the Brewers dramatically improve the pitching staff is the year they experience so much success. I desperately hope Milwaukee doesn't go back to the days of all hitting and no pitching by overpaying Prince Fielder.

[monty57]

Tim Dierkes on his MLBtraderumors chat when pressed for one team he thinks will sign Fielder: "Brewers".

 

He also gave an outstanding answer to this burning question: "If the Brewers lock up Prince (along with the rest already under deals) will they ever be able to build a team around them when Greinke and Marcum move on?"

 

Dierkes answer: "Of course, what's to stop Melvin from drafting/discovering a few decent prospects and flipping them for SPs like he did with Greinke/Marcum? Or a few SPs could come out of the woodwork like they do every year in MLB."

 

Exactly my sentiments Tim. You nailed it.

My problem would simply be years like 2015, where you will have Weeks ($11.5) and Braun ($12) with Axford and Lucroy in 2nd year arby, so say another $10MM there. If we add even a "discount" $20MM for Prince, that's $53.5MM in five players. Yo's option would be for $13MM, so if we'd want him back, that's $66.5MM for six players. Even if we have a $100MM payroll, that leaves $33.5MM for 19 players. In that scenario, we can't simply "flip prospects for SPs," as we wouldn't have the salary room to add two top of the rotation guys' contracts, or any "proven" players for that matter. You're looking at an average of around $1.7MM for the remaining 19 guys, and that's if we have a $100MM salary. Flipping your prospects for a Greinke-type contract would leave around $20MM for 18 guys, and you wouldn't have any prospects to fill those 18 holes. League minimum goes up every year, so even pre-arby guys will be over $500k by then, making it even tougher to field a team where much of the salary is eaten up in a handful of players.

In reality, signing Prince to an extension would probably mean we'd have to do the opposite of what Dierkes is saying. We would need to trade vets like Weeks and Yo before they become FAs for MLB ready, pre-arby guys. And, we would have to be dead on in all of our drafts, and show willingness to start rookies in pressure situations. Or, we would simply extend "going all in" through maybe 2014 (if we indeed "flip prospects for SP" when Greinke, Marcum and Wolf leave) and then completely overhaul the team like the Florida Marlins have done when they've won World Series.

 

I will add the disclaimer that I don't think Prince will sign a 4- or 5-year deal. If he'd do that, then I'd be more able to believe the Brewers could afford him. I think he'll demand an 8-to 10-year deal, which would seriously hamper the Brewers. That is the main reason I think it's more likely to extend Greinke and Marcum than it is to sign Fielder... they'd be gone, so we'd avoid the salary crunch described above and have flexibilty to continue to operate effectively.

[fondybrewfan]

I honestly don't think any team would be stupid enough to offer Prince a 8-10 year deal. Not to say that it won't happen but I would be very suprised. I give it about a 1% chance that an NL team would sign Fielder for 8 years, an AL might be more willing to take that risk. I think a 6 year deal is more likely to happen than an 8. I think Fielder ends up signing for 6 or possibly 7 years at an AAV of $23-$25 Million. So that is a minimum of 6/138 and a maximum of 7/175 but probably somewhere in between.

 

6/138 would really be pushing MIL's budget; there would almost certainly have to be some deferred money involved

[Mr Southpaw]

Can anybody tell me what they think Reyes will get? If you can get 6 years under $100 million I think your getting a relatively fair deal. I would much rather have a high quality SS and Gamel than Prince and Yuni.

[nate82]

Can anybody tell me what they think Reyes will get? If you can get 6 years under $100 million I think your getting a relatively fair deal. I would much rather have a high quality SS and Gamel than Prince and Yuni.

It won't be under $100m. Reyes may not get the 6 or 7 years that he is looking for or the Crawford contract that he is looking for but he still will get something over or at $100m.

[Hate those Rodents]

If Reyes signs something like 6/105, and Pujols resigns somewhat reasonably in STL, I wonder if Fielder's price becomes relatively rationale (say 6/125.

[Raw Biz]

If Reyes signs something like 6/105, and Pujols resigns somewhat reasonably in STL, I wonder if Fielder's price becomes relatively rationale (say 6/125.

This is starting to turn into just a Fielder thread but I wouldn't even want Prince at that price. I don't want him for anything at $20 mil or over. I think even $18 mil is pushing it. Sure the guy is amazing on offense. But he plays at arguably the easiest position to replace while providing below-average defense. Like others have said, we've tried to build around offense for seemingly the past 20 years. Pitching is the key so I would rather use that money to lock up Greinke and Marcum. So even if Prince would take a "discount" of $20 mil, I wouldn't want to do it.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm curious as to what you guys think our record would be in 2012 if we merely have a repeat of 2011 minus Fielder and an obvious FA departure in K-Rod. In this scenario, all 2011 MLB rosters transfer to 2012 because it is impossible to predict trades and FA. Assuming we receive equivalent production from our position players (minus subbing Gamel for Prince), our rotation gave us similar prodcution and our bullpen was the same (minus K-Rod), are the 2012 Brewers a 90 win team, an 85 win team or a sub .500 team? What should are expectations be in 2012 in that scenario?

[monty57]

I'm curious as to what you guys think our record would be in 2012 if we merely have a repeat of 2011 minus Fielder and an obvious FA departure in K-Rod. In this scenario, all 2011 MLB rosters transfer to 2012 because it is impossible to predict trades and FA. Assuming we receive equivalent production from our position players (minus subbing Gamel for Prince), our rotation gave us similar prodcution and our bullpen was the same (minus K-Rod), are the 2012 Brewers a 90 win team, an 85 win team or a sub .500 team? What should are expectations be in 2012 in that scenario?

 

If we lose Prince for Gamel and we lose K-Rod for ???, and we are not upgrading any positions (i.e. shortstop), then naturally we should be worse than this year. From your post, I'm guessing we still get Hawkins/Saito (or equivalents) in the pen. Our pitching is good enough that we'd probably still have a shot at the Central, if Gamel could produce decent numbers, Green/McGehee improve on McGehee's 2010 numbers and we don't have injuries. Therefore, if we could give ourselves a boost by upgrading SS in 2012, I think we should be in the playoff hunt.

 

Someone at the SS position who plays good defense will make our pitching even better (which is scary), and if we could find one who can play defense and get on base, we could have ourselves a more balanced offense, and one that certainly could be good enough to put up enough runs for our pitching staff.

 

Prince is a great offensive player, and I don't want to downplay what he's meant to this team. However, Gamel should put up decent numbers and will be our "property" for five seasons for around 2% the price of Fielder. The tailor-made time to let a great player go is when you have a young player to replace him and you don't have players to replace other positions. We don't have anyone to replace Greinke or Marcum at anywhere near the level Gamel should replace Fielder, so in my opinion, they're just more pressing. Losing Greinke, Marcum and Wolf in the same offseason is something that the Brewers will have no chance of recovering from.

[Hate those Rodents]

Let's state the goal most of us have...

 

1) Resign Fielder, Greinke, Marcum

 

If we can trade Wolf and Hart for salary relief and prospects of some degree, is this realistic at all?

[Raw Biz]

Let's state the goal most of us have...

 

1) Resign Fielder, Greinke, Marcum

 

If we can trade Wolf and Hart for salary relief and prospects of some degree, is this realistic at all?

It would be realistic for next year and maybe the year after but the problem would be what to do for the 4+ years after Wolf's contract would be up. I would have no problem paying Prince for the next 2 years but once the Yo/Weeks/Braun contracts start to escalate (and adding in Greinke/Marcum resignings) there would just be too much money tied up. I just don't think it's prudent to put 20+ mil into one player for multiple years (especially a 1st baseman).