Extension for Jered Weaver: 5 years, $85 million

[jjfanec]

A team like the Yankees could sign Fielder and just eat the contract of one of those older veterans or try to trade them. If the Yankees decide they need Prince to have the best offense in baseball they will look at him. I dont think Andruw Jones or Jorge Posada are enough to keep the Yankees from drooling over Prince batting in a lineup with Granderson, Arod, and Tex

[Baldkin]

I agree that Greinke is roughly comparable but all those guys signed with at least a year before free agency. When you adjust for that, they are all basically making around $20 mil/year in "free agent" money. So Greinke might be looking at something closer to 5/$100. Certainly not 5/$80.

Were all three of these deals roughly 5yrs/80-85 million tacked on to

start after their final arbitration year is over, so basically the teams

own that pitcher for 6 years? Either way, i'm not understanding your math here because all three would have likely received at least 15 million in their final arbitration year without the extensions, so how are you turning their deals from 5yrs/80 million to 5yrs/100 million?

 

Keep in mind, people here are saying that Melvin should offer a similar deal this offseason while Greinke has one year left, jest as Weaver, Felix, and Verlander had.

All the deals, other than Weavers, were signed with two years left before FA. So, if you sign a deal, buying out 3 years of FA and 2 years of Arby, it's really (by the 40-60-80 rule), like signing a 4.4 year deal, so 85/4.4 = 19.3M.

[HiAndTight]

I have a hard time believing the Red Sox or Yankees are going to go hard after fielder. They both have a good 1st basemen already and more than a couple aging veterans that are DH's now or will be shortly. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have far more pressing concerns than offense anyways. They both need pitching although NY much more so.

 

I think it comes down to the Orioles, Nationals, Giants, Cubs, and Brewers with the Blue Jays being a darkhorse.

Exactly, just because they're the Red Sox and Yankees doesn't mean they'll automatically get into the bidding.

 

Buying 7 10K Italian suits for a 5 day business trip is one thing, but you don't need to spend 20 for an 8th and a 9th. Neither have any "need," for Prince. Sure, he'd be nice, but with two GG caliber defenders and close to equal offensive players already locked up to long term deals...the question is why? Why would they go after him?

 

The Cubs have quietly suggested they're more into the youth movement than more big FA signings before they're ready.

 

I think it REALLY comes down to;

 

1-Nationals

That's a team that could have a SICK lineup 2-3 years into Prince's time there. Zimermann and Strausburg(if the latter can stay healthy, he's a once in a generation pitcher...which many of us have forgotten because of the aforementioned issue). Throw in Detwiller and then a Lannan, Marquis, or they've got a couple other arms that could develop.

 

An IF of Prince/Rendon/Espinoza/Zimmerman is one of the best you could imagine should Rendon work out.

In the OF you've got Harper who could be all time great with the 80 power and 70-80 arm...which is a bit underrated. Werth in RF who I think will settle in as a Corey Hart type player once his contract isn't the focal point, and then they have several CF options.

 

Throw in a Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen SU/CL situation and that's a nasty back of the pen combo...(though I suspect that will look a little differently by this time comes around, just saying if you were to project now, it's difficult to project a rise in a Clippard type pitcher, but I imagine they'll be alright as long as they've got Storen closing out games. Easy to mold a BP around a CL which is one reason I think many on here underrate the closer position).

 

Anyway, enough on them.

 

2-Baltimore

They've got a ton of money also. They, like the Nats have been looking to spend it for years. The Nats may have found their way with Werth, but we'll see if they can pony up for another. But this offense looks potentially incredible as well with Prince. I still believe Weiters can be Mauer with power, Jones is in his early/mid 20's yet, Markakis IS overrated, but still a good player. And they've got other very nice pieces there offensively.

 

And let us not forget the 5 starters under the age of 25 who are all highly touted. And they always seem to have a dynamic pen.

 

Angelos almost seems to need to spend on someone for his ego and I think Prince will be the target this year.

 

3-Seattle

Another bigger market team hidden under the guise of a small market. They'll draw if they're decent, and Jack Z picked Prince. Plus, with a young pitching staff of King Feliz, Pineda, Blevan just to start, I think they have the pieces in place to have a nice rotation.

Add in Ackley and the 1B from the Rangers who I just can't recall at this moment, but who was up there with Hosmer in terms of prospect status.

(Edit-Smoak is the guy who I couldn't come up with. He's a legit prospect. Guy hits for power and he draws a ton of walks. Could be perfect in front of Prince with his walk rates).

 

I think he'd be a poor fit here, but I think they'll go hard after him.

 

4-LAA

Morales has now missed two full years, and while I just can't fathom taking on Wells and that deal, and that could hamstring them as they have too many OF/DH combos with Trumbo, Trout, Wells, Hunter, and Bourgouis(and correct me if I'm wrong, again, the young CF defensive studs name is partially eluding me at the moment). Prince doesn't fit with what they do, but if they DID get him, throw Trout into CF, Hunter into RF and Trumbo into LF and just eat Wells and maybe deal their young CF defensive stud, that could be nasty.

 

 

5-Brewers

They've got the new TV deal and I just for the life of me do NOT understand why people continue to throw out the 85 million dollar payroll limit. The new TV deal, while not releasing it's public numbers is rumored to be at the absolute minimum 10 million, and please feel free to dismiss this all you'd like, but I have friends who work for both FSN and the Brewers who speculate it could produce an additional 20 million annually. But aside from that, the Brewers have been more than willing to easily exceed the 90 million dollar mark AS-IS, and they're going to be again coming off a year in which they have a VERY successful season at the turnstiles and in merchandising(there was just an article in the MJS) talking about this.

 

And frankly, Mark A is more of a baseball guy than a fan. Now he IS a baseball guy, but I think the 45 pct baseball guy in him can be convinced by the 55 pct fan in him that 6 years 150-160 million in worth it for Prince, and I think he could stretch that to 7 years 175.

 

Would I do it? Wouldn't even think about it.

 

I think this team could be better without Prince. This teams needs a little bit of a face lift, and I say that as a HUGE homer.

 

 

As of right now they've got a GREAT pitching staff, a very good BP. They've got a couple arms coming up that are going to REALLY supplement their arms. Lock up Greinke for the 5 years 85 million. I think that's about as good a bet as you can get for a long term deal as a pitcher.

Offer Marcum 3 years 36 million. I don't like that one, but whatever.

 

With Peralta, Thornburg, Heckathorn, Fiers, Manzanillo and other young pitchers coming up I think you really supplement the pitching ala the Atlanta Braves(not quite as good as their guys, but we're no slouches here). Throw in Jungman and Bradley and it could be very pretty. Expensive atop the pen and rotation and cheap in the back.

 

And then in the field, turn that money into DEFENSIVE minded players at 3rd and short who can hit McGehee and Betancourt's weight. Now their own, I'm hoping for athletic players, but the key here is to turn this defensive nightmare into as good of a defensive team as you can by improving 1st, 3rd and short while you have a nice CF and an average C. With great pitching and an average lineup, that gives you a great chance to sustain long term success IMO.

[RockCoCougars]

Great analysis above. Though I agree with most of it, I strongly disagree with this:

 

I think this team could be better without Prince. This teams needs a little bit of a face lift, and I say that as a HUGE homer.

 

I will qualify my statements below with my belief that it's 95% that Prince is gone, but....In my view, Prince is the heart of this team. What would they do without him? Fortunately, we have never had to find out because the big guy never misses a game. Take that big bat out of the lineup and I think some dominoes start to fall in my view. If you use the money at short or third, who will you spend it on? The cupboard is pretty bare outside of Reyes, who will be demanding the same kind of money that Prince will- and hasn't held a candle to him offensively over his career (yes, he has been playing out of his mind this season). Defense at these positions is nice, but those guys shouldn't be very expensive. Actually if you use the money somewhere else, where? The Brewers history of signing 'free agents from another team to multi year deals is short and spotty at best.

[danzig6767]

I agree that Greinke is roughly comparable but all those guys signed with at least a year before free agency. When you adjust for that, they are all basically making around $20 mil/year in "free agent" money. So Greinke might be looking at something closer to 5/$100. Certainly not 5/$80.

Were all three of these deals roughly 5yrs/80-85 million tacked on to

start after their final arbitration year is over, so basically the teams

own that pitcher for 6 years? Either way, i'm not understanding your math here because all three would have likely received at least 15 million in their final arbitration year without the extensions, so how are you turning their deals from 5yrs/80 million to 5yrs/100 million?

 

Keep in mind, people here are saying that Melvin should offer a similar deal this offseason while Greinke has one year left, jest as Weaver, Felix, and Verlander had.

All the deals, other than Weavers, were signed with two years left before FA. So, if you sign a deal, buying out 3 years of FA and 2 years of Arby, it's really (by the 40-60-80 rule), like signing a 4.4 year deal, so 85/4.4 = 19.3M.

Thanks

 

Sounds like Boras/Weaver took a pretty team friendly deal then which is surprising.

[Invader3K]

Sounds like Boras/Weaver took a pretty team friendly deal then which is surprising.

I think everyone missed my post where I noted that Weaver is a California native. He obviously loves pitching there, hence why he wanted to stay long term.

[Ayt]

I agree about Greinke. I'd try to win Braves-style. Let Fielder walk and try to sign Greinke to 5 years and Marcum to 4 years.

Yes to Greinke but no on Marcum. I don't believe Marcum will be very good in the middle of that contract. I would rather just take the picks for Marcum assuming there is still compensation then.

Why? With his intelligence and variety of pitches combined with a truly nasty change up he should be effective well into his 30's.

 

[Invader3K]

Why? With his intelligence and variety of pitches combined with a truly nasty change up he should be effective well into his 30's.

People think he's another devastating injury waiting to happen, due to his past surgery. Really he's probably no more injury prone than any other MLB starting pitcher.

[rluzinski]

Sounds like Boras/Weaver took a pretty team friendly deal then which is surprising.

I think everyone missed my post where I noted that Weaver is a California native. He obviously loves pitching there, hence why he wanted to stay long term.

Since we are just repeating ourselves, my point was that it wasn't particularly team friendly. It was pretty much the going rate for great starting pitchers. Only Santana, Cliff Lee and Sabathia has gotten better deals since 2007.

[JohnBriggs12]

Before everyone chimes in on what a great deal getting Greinke for 5 years at $85 million would be can I just remind all of you that those figures are pretty close to what the Yankees gave A J Burnett, the Red Sox gave John Lackey, and the Cubs gave Carlos Zambrano.

 

How are those deals working out? Last I check Greinke's ERA is back over 4. Granted he's pitched better than that but what if he should regress?

 

Long term deals with pitchers are inherently more risky than with position players and it's not just do to the injury risk. Just take a look back 5 years at the pitchers who had the best years, and see where they are now. A great example is Scott Kazmir.

 

Brewers were extremely pitcher intensive in this year's draft. To me I'd rather have Fielder in the fold and develop young pitching.

[Ayt]

The real underlying issue here for me is this...How will Prince's likely departure affect Greinke's willingness to stay in Milwaukee? As most reports at the time of the deal indicate Prince's presence in Milwaukee was a driving factor in Greinke waiving his no-trade clause, I'll be curious to see if Prince leaving via FA will make Greinke think twice about staying long term in Milwaukee.

I think Greinke agreed to come to Milwaukee because of our overall young talent base that had the ability to contend. It wasn't just Prince. We should still be quite good next year because of our starting pitching and some upgrades to our position player roster.

[jjfanec]

Before everyone chimes in on what a great deal getting Greinke for 5 years at $85 million would be can I just remind all of you that those figures are pretty close to what the Yankees gave A J Burnett, the Red Sox gave John Lackey, and the Cubs gave Carlos Zambrano.

 

How are those deals working out?

 

Long term deals with pitchers are inherently more risky than with position players and it's not just do to the injury risk. Just take a look back 5 years at the pitchers who had the best years, and see where they are now.

 

Brewers were extremely pitcher intensive in this year's draft. To me I'd rather have Fielder in the fold and develop young pitching.

Greinke is just a better and younger pitcher than Lackey was when Lackey got that deal. Greinke is 5 years younger than Lackey and Lackey signed with Boston 2 years ago.

 

A.J. Burnett was a guy who was consistently hurt and showed up big a couple years but had at least 2 years older than Greinke would be when he signed.

 

Zambrano might be the closest comparison but Zambrano's arm did not let him down as much as his head did

[RockCoCougars]

If and when Marcum loses a few MPH on the fastball, he'll be a lot more hittable unless he has pinpoint command. I'm not giving him anything more than a three year deal, that's for sure.

[Warning Track Power]

Before everyone chimes in on what a great deal getting Greinke for 5 years at $85 million would be can I just remind all of you that those figures are pretty close to what the Yankees gave A J Burnett, the Red Sox gave John Lackey, and the Cubs gave Carlos Zambrano.

 

How are those deals working out?

 

Long term deals with pitchers are inherently more risky than with position players and it's not just do to the injury risk. Just take a look back 5 years at the pitchers who had the best years, and see where they are now.

 

Brewers were extremely pitcher intensive in this year's draft. To me I'd rather have Fielder in the fold and develop young pitching.

I keep hemming and hawing over Prince v. Greinke but today I think I am leaning more toward this line of thinking as well. I know what 2009 and 2010 looked like without good pitching but if we re-sign Prince, we could have basically the same team in place next season for another try in 2012 extending this window by a year. After the 2012 season, we let Greinke walk and attempt to re-sign Marcum. At that point, we would hope Peralta, Thornburg and maybe Jungmann and/or Bradley would all be ready or competing for a spot in the rotation. While we no doubt would take a little swoon after 2012 minus Greinke in the rotation, the hope is that with Gallardo and Marcum re-signed, Narveson still around, that two of Peralta, Thornburg, Jungmann and Bradley could be in the rotation and maybe become the next Sheets or Yo.

 

With our farm system in its current state, I think it is far more likely we find Greinke's replacement in house than the .300/.400/.550-.600, 40 HR, 120 RBI that Prince brings to the table.

[monty57]

They've got the new TV deal and I just for the life of me do NOT understand why people continue to throw out the 85 million dollar payroll limit. The new TV deal, while not releasing it's public numbers is rumored to be at the absolute minimum 10 million, and please feel free to dismiss this all you'd like, but I have friends who work for both FSN and the Brewers who speculate it could produce an additional 20 million annually.

 

I certainly won't dismiss it. I hope it's true. I just used the $85MM number because it's our current salary (according to BF.net's salary page), and I said Prince & Braun would take up roughly half of this year's salary. Simple 3% inflation would take the salary to roughly $98.5MM by 2016, but the last time I mentioned that the discussion got into the economy, and I didn't want to open that can of worms. If the TV deal would produce even $10MM more annually, 3% inflation would take the team's payroll to around $110MM by 2016 (using $95MM as the 2011 base... current $85MM + $10MM for TV). Of course, these numbers are subject to a lot of variables, and are only there for point of reference.

 

Braun will be paid $19MM. Assume $23MM for Fielder, and you're still looking at 38.18% of your payroll on two players. Currently, our top two players, Fielder and Greinke, take up 34.11% of payroll. So, if inflation and the new TV deal can increase our payroll by around 30% over the next five years, then I think it's possible to sign Fielder. That's an "if" which only the Brewers' can answer. I'd love to see them sign Prince and extend Greinke and Marcum. Only the Brewers' brass knows for certain what their financial situation looks like.

 

At the very least, the Weaver deal gives both the Brewers and Greinke (and his agent) a base to start negotiations. I'd certainly rather use that as a base than the Sabathia deal.

[Baldkin]

With our farm system in its current state, I think it is far more likely we find Greinke's replacement in house than the .300/.400/.550-.600, 40 HR, 120 RBI that Prince brings to the table.

Greinke has the ability to be one of the top 5 pitchers in the game. Prince, on the other hand, might be the 3rd best 1B in his own division. 1B production is relatively easy to find and replace. Maybe not at Prince's level, but if you can get 80% of Prince at 10% of the price....

[RockCoCougars]

You've got to think the TV contract the Brewers will command will generate some cash. The bandwagon is nearly full, and the ratings have to be sky high. I'd love to see their ratings from August 2011 compared to August 2001. I'd be shocked if they weren't at least double or triple. You'd think this would allow Fox Sports to attract a more diverse bunch of advertisers lined up for next year. Chef Jerry Garcia, the Fox Sports and Fox Sports North ads and the 'flash mob' commercial are starting to wear on me. Maybe they can actually locate a studio in Milwaukee as opposed to Minneapolis as well. I'm assuming that this goes back to the 'MSN' days.

[Invader3K]

You've got to think the TV contract the Brewers will command will generate some cash. The bandwagon is nearly full, and the ratings have to be sky high. I'd love to see their ratings from August 2011 compared to August 2001. I'd be shocked if they weren't at least double or triple. You'd think this would allow Fox Sports to attract a more diverse bunch of advertisers lined up for next year. Chef Jerry Garcia, the Fox Sports and Fox Sports North ads and the 'flash mob' commercial are starting to wear on me. Maybe they can actually locate a studio in Milwaukee as opposed to Minneapolis as well. I'm assuming that this goes back to the 'MSN' days.

I know they signed a new deal that either kicks in this year or next (I think). Hopefully that will help some, yes. I remember reading that the Brewers are one of the most highly rated teams broadcast by Fox Sports.

[Warning Track Power]

With our farm system in its current state, I think it is far more likely we find Greinke's replacement in house than the .300/.400/.550-.600, 40 HR, 120 RBI that Prince brings to the table.

Greinke has the ability to be one of the top 5 pitchers in the game. Prince, on the other hand, might be the 3rd best 1B in his own division. 1B production is relatively easy to find and replace. Maybe not at Prince's level, but if you can get 80% of Prince at 10% of the price....

Greinke does have that ability but has arguably only shown that ability over an entire season once in his career. While I agree with you that an all-star 1B like Prince is more easily replaceable than an ace SP like Greinke, my point only was that I think the Brewers farm system as currently constituted is more likely to produce another Greinke than another Prince. With that being the case, it might make more sense to re-sign Prince.

 

If we could pencil in Gamel (or equivalent) for 80% of Prince right now, and pay him 10% of Prince ($2MM-$2.5MM per year), I might be more apt to agree with you:

 

(80% of Prince .300/.400/.550-.600, 40 HR, 120 RBI)

AVG: .240

OBP: .320

SLG: .440-.480

HR: 32

RBI: 96

 

However, that line looks eerily similar to a $10MM year player named Carlos Pena. Whose numbers to date this season are:

 

AVG: .225

OBP: .345

SLG: .455

HR: 23

RBI: 67

 

I think it may be a little more difficult to replace Fielder's production than we all, myself included, tend to let on. Additionally, Prince's departure could have a negative domino effect on the rest of the lineup surroudning the cleanup spot i.e. Braun, Weeks, Hart and McGehee.

[logan82]

You forgot to factor in Fielder's crappy defense and how much it hurts the other infielders.

[nate82]

You forgot to factor in Fielder's crappy defense and how much it hurts the other infielders.

It is not a guarantee that Gamel will be better than Fielder at 1B either or how much better Gamel will be than Fielder.

[logan82]

Considering Fielder is one of the worst defenders at 1B in the majors and what we have seen of Gamel I think we can assume Gamel will be a better fielder. As long as we don't move Braun to 1B we will be ok.

[pitchleague]

what have we seen of Gamel at 1B? Most of us haven't seen him in the minors this season playing 1B.

 

In my opinion (note: that means, this is not a fact), Gamel played 3B like a slightly improved version of Ryan Braun at 3B. Which means that I wasn't all that impressed. He looked slow and unsure of his footwork and his arm was very erratic.

 

How does that translate to playing 1B? Not entirely sure but the arm only is a factor, for the most part, on plays at the plate (since we have the infield in so much) and on relay throws. But slowness and footwork issues could very well be just as good as Prince, worse than Prince, or better than Prince.

 

And, again, my opinion, there is no way that Gamel will replace Fielder's numbers at the plate. Or his leadership. Or his smile. Or his goofy laugh. I said it three years ago and I'll say it again: Gamel, to me, seems like a Greg Brock type player at best for his career.

 

 

On topic, I am glad to see Weaver get this extension. He has CERTAINLY deserved it. I, too, believe that he enjoys the West Coast and was probably a factor in going over Boras' head (speculation here) and re-upping with the Angels.

[danzig6767]

Considering Fielder is one of the worst defenders at 1B in the majors and what we have seen of Gamel I think we can assume Gamel will be a better fielder. As long as we don't move Braun to 1B we will be ok.

One of Fielder's biggest weaknesses at first IMO is consistently digging out poor throws in the dirt. Does anyone know how Gamel is doing at that? A firstbaseman never gets an error for failing to dig out a poor throw in the dirt and they shouldn't get an error, but some guys at that position certainly do it better than others.

 

Speaking of firstbase, the guy i'd like to see playing first next year is Hart and Gamel in RF if he can play there decently. Not only would Hart's height and length be a bonus on various different poor throws from infielders, his defense in RF is really going downhill as his speed diminishes. He has always struggled a lot at reading balls hit over his head, just look at a few fly balls he butchered in this current series with the Pirates. His arm is also terrible and inaccurate. The one strength he used to have in the outfield though was his speed to run down balls hit in the gap or to the left of him, but with his speed noticeably diminishing, there isn't much left to like about his defense in RF.

[jvrocksaz]

Love it!

 

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/6889644/jered-weaver-bucks-scott-boras-advice-new-los-angeles-angels-deal