Extension for Jered Weaver: 5 years, $85 million

[jvrocksaz]

Buster Olney reports Jered Weaver signs a 5 year $85 mil extension to stay with the Angels... Boras client was just a year away from becoming a free agent.

http://tinyurl.com/Buster-tweet-Weaver

[pogokat]

I think that number similar to what greinke will get...

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I hope Melvin is on the phone tonight offering Zack the exact same contract. 5/85 would be a great signing for the Brewers

[jvrocksaz]

I am shocked that a Boras client didn't wait for Free Agency! I would love for the Brewers to offer Greinke this exact same deal...

[DHonks]

I agree about Greinke. I'd try to win Braves-style. Let Fielder walk and try to sign Greinke to 5 years and Marcum to 4 years.

[nate82]

I agree about Greinke. I'd try to win Braves-style. Let Fielder walk and try to sign Greinke to 5 years and Marcum to 4 years.

Yes to Greinke but no on Marcum. I don't believe Marcum will be very good in the middle of that contract. I would rather just take the picks for Marcum assuming there is still compensation then.

[sveumrules]

Does it seem weird to anyone else that Greinke is younger than Weaver?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think that number similar to what greinke will get...

Don't you go getting my hopes up.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd give Greinke this deal, or a little more in a heartbeat. As for Marcum, he will be 31 when he hits free agency, and I just don't think that guys with his skill set age very well. For whatever reason similar lefties seem to have a better shelf life.

[fondybrewfan]

I would think someone like Marcum would age well. He doesn't rely on a balzing fastball or anything and I doubt age will effect his ability control all that much. I would be fine extending both Grienke and Marcum

 

5/80 of Grienke

4/44 for Marcum

 

Even though we will see gains from Fielder leaving; there are a lot of positions to fill next year. You probably need 3 new relievers, a SS, a 1B, and a 3B. You can't rely on rookies everywhere. I don't now how excited I would be to bring back Hawkins or Saito next year; Doug will probably spend a good chunk of change on the bullpen next year.

[monty57]

I would be fine extending both Grienke and Marcum

 

5/80 of Grienke

4/44 for Marcum

 

I would be fine with that as well. It would set us up to be a playoff contender for years, and even if he falls off some, I don't think Marcum would get so bad that $11MM would be an outrageous sum for him to be in the rotation.

 

there are a lot of positions to fill next year. You probably need 3 new relievers, a SS, a 1B, and a 3B. You can't rely on rookies everywhere. I don't now how excited I would be to bring back Hawkins or Saito next year

 

Hopefully Kintzler, Braddock and de la Cruz can play a bigger role in the pen next season. Saito's pretty cheap, and I wouldn't mind bringing him back if we could once again get him on a 1 year/$1.5MM contract. Hawkins may look for a multi-year deal, and I'd steer clear of that. I'd probably be happy if he'd come back on a 1-year deal. We are seeing how nice a luxury it is to have some solid bullpen arms this year, and how much Loe hurt us in that role, so I agree we will look to at least have a solid "8th inning guy." Whether that's Hawkins, Saito or someone else, we'll probably spend some money there.

 

Gamel, Green and McGehee should be able to cover 1B/3B. I just worry that Roenicke would start McGehee everyday. Hopefully Hairston will return, as he's a great utility guy. Our big hole to fill is SS, and that's probably where Melvin will try to spend a chunk of the money he's saving with Prince, Yuni, Hawkins, Counsell and Saito going away.

 

Boras client was just a year away from becoming a free agent.

 

That's the big surprise. Has Boras suddenly realized that his clients' interests are more important than his own? I wonder if Adenhart played into this, with Weaver realizing that you can't take anything for granted, and getting a guaranteed $85MM is better than taking significant risk to potentially get a little more.

[Warning Track Power]

I too would give this deal to Greinke in a heartbeat.

 

$17MM AAV is $3.5MM AAV more than what he currently makes, which makes for a nice raise for Greinke. Additionally, look at this list and tell me Zack should be asking for much more:

 

*Jered Weaver: 2012-2016 (5 years $85MM)

*Justin Verlander: 2010-2014 (5 years $79.5MM)

*Felix Hernandez: 2010-2014 (5 years $78MM)

 

Without going too far into career statistics (because I don't have the time, being at work) I don't think you can consider Greinke any worse or any better than those three. This should be the extent of what the Brewers should go to for Greinke as I don't think the Brewers should be setting the market anytime soon for signing starting pitching. If Greinke all of a sudden were to come back and say 5 years, $100MM, I'd have to let him leave almost based on principle alone.

 

The real underlying issue here for me is this...How will Prince's likely departure affect Greinke's willingness to stay in Milwaukee? As most reports at the time of the deal indicate Prince's presence in Milwaukee was a driving factor in Greinke waiving his no-trade clause, I'll be curious to see if Prince leaving via FA will make Greinke think twice about staying long term in Milwaukee.

[rluzinski]

I agree that Greinke is roughly comparable but all those guys signed with at least a year before free agency. When you adjust for that, they are all basically making around $20 mil/year in "free agent" money. So Greinke might be looking at something closer to 5/$100. Certainly not 5/$80.

[RockCoCougars]

If anything, this signing illustrates that Boras hasn't completely brainwashed his clients, and they have at least some say in their destiny. Even more surprising since this is a guy who dropped like a rock in the amateur draft from pretty much a lock #1 to mid first round because of his 'signability' (wouldn't it have been nice to take him instead of Rogers in hindsight?). Let's just say that Prince would sign for $25 per and Greinke would sign for $20 per. We are talking a $15 million annual raise over this year for the two combined. In that case, if Hart and Wolf were moved in the off-season, would the payroll be workable factoring in the raises due to Rickie, Yo, Braun and the other arby guys? It would be for sure in 2012, but I don't know going forward. You could fill the role of Hart and Wolf with young guys (Gindl, Gamel, Peralta- bumping Narveson to #4, etc.) or sign a cheap vet. Most of the other 'key' guys- Lucroy, Axford, Morgan etc. should be relatively cheap moving forward.

[Invader3K]

One thing to remember with Weaver is that he is a California native, and he went to college at California State University as well. Clearly this was something of a hometown discount situation, so there are no guarantees Greinke would sign a similar deal in Milwaukee.

[rluzinski]

Is Weaver's contract really a discount? Like I said, it's about $20/year in "free agent" money. And how many starting pitchers get longer than 5 year deals these days? Since 2008, Sabathia... Santana... anyone else? (EDIT: Cliff Lee got 5/$24) Pitchers just get hurt too often. It seems like 5/$20 is the default for the best pitchers, unless they are going to a New York team apparently.

 

Boris can spout whatever he wants publicly but Weaver's largest concern may have simply been getting hurt before he could sign his big free agent deal..

[monty57]

Let's just say that Prince would sign for $25 per and Greinke would sign for $20 per. We are talking a $15 million annual raise over this year for the two combined. In that case, if Hart and Wolf were moved in the off-season, would the payroll be workable factoring in the raises due to Rickie, Yo, Braun and the other arby guys?

 

The problem is that Prince will probably sign an 8-10 year $200MM+ deal, which could become a huge anchor on the franchise for years. Braun's deal is risky. Prince's deal could be catastrophic.

 

It would be for sure in 2012, but I don't know going forward.

 

That's the key. Even if we no longer had Wolf and Hart in 2013, Braun ($8.5MM), Weeks ($10MM) and Yo ($7.75MM) will account for $26.25MM. If Greinke got $17MM and Prince got $23MM, that would be $66.25MM of our $85-ishMM payroll. Ax and Lucroy would be pre-arby, with guys like Narveson, Gomez and Morgan in arbitration. We'd probably have $10MM or so to cover 2 SP, our bullpen, SS, 3B and the bench. In 2014, Braun, Weeks and Yo get an additional $6MM, Ax & Lucroy go to arby and Morgan and Narveson are in final year of arby. It would really start to get tight.

 

It may be doable, especially if the payroll goes up (inflation or extra from playoffs), but it would certainly be tight. I don't think it would be possible to do Greinke, Marcum and Fielder, so one thing to consider is the marginal difference in the dropoff between Marcum vs. his replacement and Fielder vs. Gamel. In other words, would we be better by extending Marcum and Greinke, starting Gamel at 1B with Hart and Wolf and an additional $10-15MM to spend, or would we be better by trading Hart and Wolf (and might as well trade Gamel if we have Fielder) and letting Marcum walk in order to keep Fielder?

 

Assuming Greinke would be extended in either case, and given my scenario above, I would probably prefer to extend Marcum at 4/$44 rather than extending Fielder at 8-10/$200MM+. Of course, there are a lot of variables, such as what we'd get in trade for Hart & Wolf, how much payroll will rise in the future, how much insurance would cost on Fielder's contract and how certain we are that we'll have rookie pitchers ready to step into the MLB rotation over the next couple seasons.

 

Then there's the scenario of "what if Greinke asks for $20MM/year?" Then, the possibility of extending Marcum & re-signing Fielder would be on the table. If Greinke/Fielder is remotely possible, then Marcum/Fielder should be feasible.

 

Edit: On second thought... In 2016, Braun starts making $19MM. If Fielder were signed for $20-25MM, those two players would combine for roughly half of our current salary. We will likely have a higher payroll five years from now than we do today, but I doubt it will be that much higher. That would be the biggest reason Fielder will not be a Milwaukee Brewer beyond 2011. A 5-year deal for Greinke (2012-2016) may even be pushing it, as there's a chance we'd have to trade him before the final year. A lot can happen in five years, so we don't know who else we will have and tieing up even $36MM that far out is risky. Five years is really as far as I would like to go, and four years would be much more comfortable and give us a lot more flexibility in the future.

[RockCoCougars]

I honestly don't see Prince getting 8 years. I'm sure GM's have the same fears that many here do, especially how he will age given his size and the fact that he is already poor defensively at first. Would you really want to commit for 8 years to a guy who is arguably best suited as a DH now? I guess if someone is stupid enough to give Jayson Werth 7 years, anything is possible though.

 

If I'm the Brewers, I'd offer him a 5 year deal with an automatic vesting option for the 6th based on games played (not sure if you can offer multi-year vesting stats or if you would have to go off year 5). I'd also allow him an out after year 3. I agree with those who say that Baltimore would probably be the most likely option for him, with possibly Anaheim in the mix. Washington is another name they were speculating on Saturday, and the Cubs are a looming threat. I guess all it would take is one team with a ridiculous offer to render this moot, but I have to think the Brewers are going to make another run at him.

[monty57]

Not that I've researched it, but what I've heard the TV pundits say is that Pujols is likely to get the higest yearly avg, but Prince will likely get the biggest contract because he's younger so someone will give him a long-term deal. If he wins MVP this year, then he'll really be in the driver's seat. Throw in that we've got Gamel as an in-house replacement, and I'd concentrate my energy on Marcum and Greinke.

[Warning Track Power]

I think it is mandatory to the fan base that one of Greinke/Prince are re-signed. I'm not talking about to the die hards that post on here that just want the Brewers to be competitive year in and year out. I think it is mandatory to the Brewer product perception and to the bottom line of the Brewers that one of them are re-signed. I doubt the Brewers will be able to continue to pull in the band wagon and fair weather fans needed to get to 3 million fans, if both are allowed to leave via FA. Same old Brewers will be the cry from those fans who will only come back after years of being mediocre allows us enough time to draft and develop a new farm system equivalent to Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hardy and Hart.

 

Even us die hards, without being privy to the Brewer financials, all seem to believe that the finances are there to afford one more mega contract. I know I for one believe it is mandatory to keep one. If Greinke won't re-sign, I say pay Fielder. After seeing the Weaver deal, I don't believe we should go to $20MM AAV for Greinke. The Weaver deal seems appropriate and if Greinke is deadset on more then I'd go to the amount needed for Prince, deal Hart, McGehee, Wolf and whoever else is becoming expensive, and fill in the gaps around Braun, Fielder, Weeks and Lucroy (Gamel RF, Schafer at CF, Green 3B, SS prospect in a Hart or Wolf deal) as the everyday core and build around Yo, Axford and a re-signed Marcum for the pitching core.

 

As for re-signing Prince, if anyone is looking for Prince to do a hometown discount, I think you have to add years and not necessarily AAV. For example, if the Cubs or Orioles were to offer Prince 8 years @ $200MM ($25MM AAV), and the Brewers were to come in at 10 years @ $200MM, I believe Prince would take the Brewers offer and not the others simply because of his comfort in Milwaukee and having been a Brewer since being drafted. Prince at 8 years takes him to age 36, 10 to age 38. While the Brewers would likely dread the end of the deal, I think Prince would realize that he likely won't be commanding too many more million as a FA year at age 36 given the way players with his body type GENERALLY age. Even if he were to get a 2 year $15MM or $20MM deal at age 36, that means he would have left the Brewers for $15MM more dollars. Pure speculation but I think Prince cares more abput his perception and his place in baseball history more than say $15 or $20 million dollars. Him and Ryan Braun very easily could be career Brewers and HOF together and own Milwaukee the way Robin Yount currently does.

 

Like I've said previously, it may not be the best way to build a team on the field but the Brewers will not lose both Fielder and Greinke. I just don't see how that improves the Brewers purely from the name brand standpoint and business side of the sport in the short or long term.

[nate82]

Not to get this thread off even further but there are not that many teams that can afford Prince that will be looking to sign Prince. First you have the Yankees and Red Sox both need starting pitching over a bat. With the Red Sox I doubt they are ready to give Prince a big deal after giving Crawford and Gonzalez big contracts. The Yankees have to worry about Sabathia possibly hitting free agency he will probably get more money from the Yankees and I doubt the Yankees take Prince just to play DH at $25m a year about. That now leaves the Nationals, Brewers, Orioles, Cubs, and the Cardinals. Other teams that maybe in on Fielder are the Rangers, Angels, Astros, and the Dodgers. These four teams will have interest but will not go over $18-20 mil per year for Prince nor will they go over 5 years so that will eliminate them.

Now for the other clubs the Nationals look like they are set at 1B with Morse. The Cubs owner sounds like they are going to be going into a rebuilding phase where they are not going to be signing a big name free agent this year. The Orioles look as though they are going to be looking for a 3B versus looking for a 1B as Reynolds and Davis will be their starting 1B and DH in 2012. Now that leaves the Brewers and the Cardinals going for Prince and Pujols and that isn't even looking at Reyes another player who may get a big deal also.

The Brewers could afford Fielder and Greinke but that wouldn't be a smart financial decision by the Brewers. If the Brewers did that I wouldn't be surprised if Gamel, Green, Hart, or McGehee were traded in the off season or even Marcum. I could see Marcum being traded to the Yankees or the Red Sox in the off season. Depending on how desperate the Yankees or Red Sox are for pitching the Brewers could get Iglesias from the Red Sox for Marcum. Iglesias is an all defense and absolutely no offense at all SS.

I believe it will be a mistake if the Brewers extend Marcum I would rather see the Brewers just sign Greinke or Fielder to a long term contract. Marcum just doesn't look like he will age well at all.

[danzig6767]

I agree that Greinke is roughly comparable but all those guys signed with at least a year before free agency. When you adjust for that, they are all basically making around $20 mil/year in "free agent" money. So Greinke might be looking at something closer to 5/$100. Certainly not 5/$80.

Were all three of these deals roughly 5yrs/80-85 million tacked on to

start after their final arbitration year is over, so basically the teams

own that pitcher for 6 years? Either way, i'm not understanding your math here because all three would have likely received at least 15 million in their final arbitration year without the extensions, so how are you turning their deals from 5yrs/80 million to 5yrs/100 million?

 

Keep in mind, people here are saying that Melvin should offer a similar deal this offseason while Greinke has one year left, jest as Weaver, Felix, and Verlander had.

[DHonks]

Nate, I fully expect the Yankees, Red Sox, O's, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Dbacks, Rangers, and Mariners to be openly bidding for Fielder. Some would want him to DH, others would want him just to boost their lineups.

[nate82]

Nate, I fully expect the Yankees, Red Sox, O's, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Dbacks, Rangers, and Mariners to be openly bidding for Fielder. Some would want him to DH, others would want him just to boost their lineups.

Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, and Mariners fine but the Dbacks, Giants, and Blue Jays? No way are they going to be openly bidding on Fielder especially the Giants and Dbacks. I also don't see the Mariners going after Fielder they have Smoak at 1B and I just do not see them being able to fit in Prince financially as a DH. The Rangers also do not seem to be a fit as they have enough players who can fit that DH role on their roster already Cruz, Hamilton, Young, and others. The Rangers also will have to try and resign Wilson which is going to take a lot of their budget along with them giving Cruz a long term contract. I just do not see how the Rangers could fit Prince financially into their budget.

The Yankees have other pressing needs and they do not need to be adding another bat. I don't see Cashman having much if any interest in Fielder at all as he has enough players on his roster that can fill in the DH spot mainly Alex Rodriguez or Jeter will be playing some time at DH there. The Red Sox also do not make much sense at all. Are they really going to pay Prince $25m a year to DH? The answer is no when they get someone at a cheaper price in Berkman. If they wanted a DH/1B type they would just go after Pujols instead who would make more sense for them. Though Berkman makes even more sense for the Red Sox than either Pujols or Prince do. Don't forget both the Red Sox and the Yankees have huge holes in their rotations. The Yankees have an ace and a bunch of #4, 5, and 6 type of pitchers in their rotation. The rotation for the Yankees is Sabathia and then Hughes and that is it. Cashman knows he has to make the rotation better next year as he is not going to get another fluke year out of Colon and Garcia again. Burnett is horrible and is being paid like a top pitcher but performs like a #4 or #5 pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if he is traded to the Cubs for Zambrano in the off season. Now the Red Sox also have problems with their rotation but it is not as bad as the Yankees but the bullpen for the Red Sox is a real problem. Papelbon is a free agent after this season and he is going to get a big payday. Can the Red Sox afford to lose Papelbon? Yes and no. If the Red Sox lose Papelbon in free agency they are going to look to first upgrade the bullpen krod looks to be the best option out there as a possible closer or setup man. Not sure how high the Red Sox still are on Bard at this time. Now onto the Orioles as I have stated previously it looks as though Baltimore is going to go with Davis and Reynolds as their 1B/DH options.

[fondybrewfan]

I have a hard time believing the Red Sox or Yankees are going to go hard after fielder. They both have a good 1st basemen already and more than a couple aging veterans that are DH's now or will be shortly. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have far more pressing concerns than offense anyways. They both need pitching although NY much more so.

 

I think it comes down to the Orioles, Nationals, Giants, Cubs, and Brewers with the Blue Jays being a darkhorse.