State of lineups in baseball

[jjfanec]

Not sure if there is any statistic to back this up but it seems like there are a lot of bad lineups out there in baseball right now. Since the break a lot of the teams we have played have had really poor lineups. The Pirates, Astros, Giants, Dodgers, and Mets all lacked consistent firepower. Some of these teams were hurt by trades but they lineups were not that good before that. Even the Cubs lineup is pretty average at best right now. That does not take into account teams we havent played who have lineups that dont really strike fear into anyone like the Nationals, Marlins, Padres, etc.

 

I guess we could say all the good lineups are in the AL but a quick look at some of the teams seem to indicate that might not be true either. Outside of Texas the AL West is really poor. The AL central is not great either with the Royals, Twins and White Sox not being able to hit much. The East has some really nice lineups and then Baltimore.

 

So the question is in the post-steroids era has hitting gotten that much worse or have I just never noticed how bad most teams lineups are or are these teams better than I am giving them credit for?

[Invader3K]

I think it's a combination of no more PEDs, and the extremely dominant pitching we've been seeing the past couple seasons. It seems like most teams these days have one or two extremely good pitchers in their rotations (if not outright aces), if not three or even four strong starters.

[rluzinski]

Even the last few years has seen some significant reduction in offense:

 

2009: .262/.333/.418/.750

2010: .257/.325/.403/.728

2011: .254/.320/.395/.715

 

Teams are still averaging around 4.2 runs/game though, so not exactly small-ball era either.

[jjfanec]

Even the last few years has seen some significant reduction in offense:

 

2009: .262/.333/.418/.750

2010: .257/.325/.403/.728

2011: .254/.320/.395/.715

 

Teams are still averaging around 4.2 runs/game though, so not exactly small-ball era either.

I was figuring you would come in with the statistics! A drop of 35 points in OPS over two years is a pretty big difference. Interesting that runs are the same but slugging and OBP are down.

 

Part of what made me think about this is there were some people on this board saying the Brewers couldnt be considered serious threats with Yuni and Casey in our lineup but every team we faced seemed to have less threats than we did. We have Prince and Braun who are elite. Hart and Weeks (when healthy) are very good. Lucroy and Morgan are good for their positions. I dont feel like we have a dominant lineup but when matched up against a lot of the teams we have played I like ours a lot more.

[rluzinski]

Even the last few years has seen some significant reduction in offense:

 

2009: .262/.333/.418/.750

2010: .257/.325/.403/.728

2011: .254/.320/.395/.715

 

Teams are still averaging around 4.2 runs/game though, so not exactly small-ball era either.

I was figuring you would come in with the statistics! A drop of 35 points in OPS over two years is a pretty big difference. Interesting that runs are the same but slugging and OBP are down.

 

Part of what made me think about this is there were some people on this board saying the Brewers couldnt be considered serious threats with Yuni and Casey in our lineup but every team we faced seemed to have less threats than we did. We have Prince and Braun who are elite. Hart and Weeks (when healthy) are very good. Lucroy and Morgan are good for their positions. I dont feel like we have a dominant lineup but when matched up against a lot of the teams we have played I like ours a lot more.

I may have implied otherwise but runs/game are also going down:

2008: 4.65

2009: 4.61

2010: 4.38

2011: 4.25

 

Brewers' offense has the third highest OPS in the NL right now:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/league/nl/sort/OPS/order/true

Closer to middle of the road for rpg though (4.36). I think they need to sacrifice bunt more.

[whizkid]

No, I think they need to work on their clutchiness.

 

http://michaelbein.com/Baseball/MLR.JPG

Still at a relatively high level of scoring historically speaking. These things have always been cyclical. I was in my teen years in the mid-60s. Scoring was too low but I like what it's settling in to now better than the '90s, early 2000s. Aaron, Mays, Robinson etc. all played through that 60s era. That's why there are stats that attempt to adjust for the general level of hitting.

 

Obviously, OPS follows pretty closely:

 

http://michaelbein.com/Baseball/MLOPS.JPG

 

 

[SoCalBrewfan]

The team OPS is fine but we have such extreme values in the lineup, with two 950 ops guys, maybe two 800ish guys depending on the day, and then a bunch of 600s. I'm sure somebody has studied that; run the simulation and see how that compares to a 'balanced' lineup of nine 750s.

 

I'd guess off the top of my head that the variance in our R/G is higher than most, but don't know how to find that without doing it myself.

[rluzinski]

I don't think having a balanced lineup makes much of a difference but you should be able to explore that using this:

 

http://lineupsimulator.com/

 

Purposely making outs in front of our two .950 guys may hurt the Brewers more than having an uneven lineup.

 

As for run variance, I've looked at it many times throughout the years:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot...earch?q=run+distribution

 

It seems that every team is accused of having an "inconsistent offense" every year. I think it is just largely the mature of baseball. Teams might average 4.25 runs/game but those 6+ run games means you have to have a lot more games where you score 2 or 3 runs. If you want to look at the Brewers this year, you first have to estimate the expected run distribution for the Brewers' specific RPG (like I did in that link).

[FVBrewerFan]

New ballparks play a role as well. Citi and Target Field to be more specific.

[brettac1]

Purposely making outs in front of our two .950 guys may hurt the Brewers more than having an uneven lineup.

 

This. Roenicke should leave his hands in his pockets when the Brewers are hitting.