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2011-08-21 Brewers (Gallardo) at Mets (Dickey) - 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers sweep, 6-2]

1992casey

By 1992casey,
in Archived Game Threads

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Bernman23 Draft Eligible

Bernman23

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Posted
Posted
Lucroy swung at ball 3 instead of taking all the way. If he did the next pitch would have drawn a walk. Some of these hitters need to stop trying to be a hero, get on base if the pitcher is going to concede it, and trust their teammates.

 

At least Hairston was able to bail out McGehee and Yuni B after another one of their terrible AB's though.

I'm not going to disagree about some of the bad approaches at the plate.

 

However, this line of thinking has always bothered me. When people say, "If this then it would have been this..." it indicates that they believe that the next action would be exactly the same even though the situation would have been different. This is simply not the case. Each pitch is a new event in a new situation so you never know what the pitcher would have done if the count were different before that pitch.

 

This argument is used all the time in sports for various situations and it just really bothers me... not trying to take it out on you specifically!

You are taking it out on me specifically, but it's somewhat deserved. No, you're right, maybe he would have guided the ball over the plate on the next pitch or maybe he wouldn't have.

 

I don't think that events are entirely independent though. If there have been a string of pitches where he's had control issues then it increases the likelihood it would have happened again. Regardless, you take all the way 2-0 in that situation, especially if you're Jonathan Lucroy.

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Bernman23 Draft Eligible

Bernman23

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Posted
How many RBIs would an average hitter have hitting behind Morgan / Braun / Fielder have this year? 75? 80? 90?
We might be the first team in major league history who will win 90+ games while having their #5 and 6 hitters hit under a .700 OPS.
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razzzorsharp ACL Brewers

razzzorsharp

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Lucroy swung at ball 3 instead of taking all the way. If he did the next pitch would have drawn a walk. Some of these hitters need to stop trying to be a hero, get on base if the pitcher is going to concede it, and trust their teammates.

 

At least Hairston was able to bail out McGehee and Yuni B after another one of their terrible AB's though.

I'm not going to disagree about some of the bad approaches at the plate.

 

However, this line of thinking has always bothered me. When people say, "If this then it would have been this..." it indicates that they believe that the next action would be exactly the same even though the situation would have been different. This is simply not the case. Each pitch is a new event in a new situation so you never know what the pitcher would have done if the count were different before that pitch.

 

This argument is used all the time in sports for various situations and it just really bothers me... not trying to take it out on you specifically!

You are taking it out on me specifically, but it's somewhat deserved. No, you're right, maybe he would have guided the ball over the plate on the next pitch or maybe he wouldn't have.

 

I don't think that events are entirely independent though. If there have been a string of pitches where he's had control issues then it increases the likelihood it would have happened again. Regardless, you take all the way 2-0 in that situation, especially if you're Jonathan Lucroy.

I love walks as much as the next guy but in this situation, already up 2, with a runner in scoring position, and two outs, I don't mind Lucroy trying to get a run in is he gets a pitch he thinks he can hit.
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natronek8780 College Ball

natronek8780

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Lucroy swung at ball 3 instead of taking all the way. If he did the next pitch would have drawn a walk. Some of these hitters need to stop trying to be a hero, get on base if the pitcher is going to concede it, and trust their teammates.

 

At least Hairston was able to bail out McGehee and Yuni B after another one of their terrible AB's though.

I'm not going to disagree about some of the bad approaches at the plate.

 

However, this line of thinking has always bothered me. When people say, "If this then it would have been this..." it indicates that they believe that the next action would be exactly the same even though the situation would have been different. This is simply not the case. Each pitch is a new event in a new situation so you never know what the pitcher would have done if the count were different before that pitch.

 

This argument is used all the time in sports for various situations and it just really bothers me... not trying to take it out on you specifically!

You are taking it out on me specifically, but it's somewhat deserved. No, you're right, maybe he would have guided the ball over the plate on the next pitch or maybe he wouldn't have.

 

I don't think that events are entirely independent though. If there have been a string of pitches where he's had control issues then it increases the likelihood it would have happened again. Regardless, you take all the way 2-0 in that situation, especially if you're Jonathan Lucroy.

I think we agree that the approach is the problem, but to say that we know the results of the at bat after the count would have been 3-0 is the problem. I would not argue that it's statistically likely he walks there but to say, if he would've taken he would've walked is where I don't agree.

 

And you're completely right in saying that not all events are independent, that actually is why my logic makes even more sense. A 3-0 pitch is completely different than a 2-1 pitch and that's what it's not predictable. If the events were truly 100% independent, the count would never matter, nor would the score.

 

It's way more prevalent in football, where fans may say something like, "If we would've scored a TD there, we would've won the game," when there is still time left... no, you would've had the lead and then who knows what the other team would have done now that they are trailing!

 

And finally, I did attack your statement and sorry for making it feel personal. It truly wasn't! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

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pebadger First Round Pick

pebadger

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Why would the Brewers pitch Narveson first? Why not pitch him 2nd behind Zack G. in case they need Frankie for a couple innings in a blowout? It doesn't make sense to me at all.

 

I think the thinking is that the greater likelihood that something bad for the bullpen will happen in Game 1. If that is the case, you have the knowledge of that outcome going into the second game and it also give RR the ability to use as much pen as he needs in an effort to get the first game of the DH without worrying about Greinke. If Greinke somehow stinks in Game 1 and you burn your pen trying to get that one, they would end up in real danger of being swept with no BP cover in he second game.

 

I think this order also leaves open a better window to make a roster move after the first game if need be.

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jvrocksaz Draft Eligible

jvrocksaz

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Posted
Yuni B and McGehee are pathetic baseball players and they are our #5 and 6 hitters. Those spots need to be fixed by the return of Weeks and promotion of Green. Stop delaying on the latter.
I tend to agree with you with one exception... This team has GREAT chemistry to it right nowand is winning... They have to be careful to not rock the boat too much! Getting Weeks back is a given (which will move McGehee and Yuni down the order) but don't expect much more than that...

 

 

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