Cubs fire GM Jim Hendry; Latest: Epstein about to become GM?

[BrewCrewRising]

The home grown guys being keys to Theo's success is a fair point.But part of the skill in being the GM is knowing who to hold on to, or at least what to spend the prospect on, and Theo has done that well.

 

It's not like he threw in Nelson Cruz as an afterthought in a Carlos Lee trade only to see the guy slugging for a WS contender.

[chuckiehacks]

It's not like he threw in Nelson Cruz as an afterthought in a Carlos Lee trade only to see the guy slugging for a WS contender.

 

But he did pass on Cruz when he was DFA'd, just like every other GM in baseball.

[RockCoCougars]

Good. Can't wait for him to pillage the farm system and blow his initial allotment of monopoly money on whoever is the 'best free agent available'. Maybe he will get lucky and some guys will 'Hulk up' for him like Ortiz and Manny. Is Mr. Minitab going to bring Bill James with him? That would help him keep his street cred.

[TooLiveBrew]

Disclaimer: I don't like the Red Sox. At all.

 

I know smaller market teams' fans (not all of them) like to rag on the huge markets like NY or BOS at almost any opportunity, but I don't know how anyone can be critical of the job Epstein did in Boston. He oversaw a highly-rated farm system (which turned out actual talent/production as well), & put together some incredible teams in the past decade. Yes, he sank a lot of money into huge contracts... some of them worked out, some of them didn't, but such is life as a large-payroll MLB team/GM. Two WS titles in four seasons is nothing short of legendary in present-day MLB. The Red Sox & Phillies will be remembered as the teams in the league for the first decade of the 2000s, and whether anyone likes it or not, Epstein will be remembered as the architect of the Boston teams.

 

 

Can't wait for him to pillage the farm system and blow his initial allotment of monopoly money on whoever is the 'best free agent available'.

 

I don't expect him to pillage the farm system, since he never did that in Boston. I think the trade for Adrian Gonzalez -- really the only deal I can think of that comes close to selling off prospects in a manner like Melvin did this past offseason -- has to be looked at as a smart move; the Red Sox absolutely should have been in win-now mode heading into the 2011 season. Aside from that move, what 'pillaging' moves did he make?

[RockCoCougars]

The heavy majority of trades that he made in Boston, especially early on, involved trading prospects for veterans. He got pretty lucky in that outside of Hanley, none of them really came back to bite him. I'm also assuming that he's going to pillage the system because the Cubs have a ton of bad contracts for the next few years. They won't be able to spend as freely to overpay on the free agent market, so they'll have to trade for guys.

[jjfanec]

Disclaimer: I don't like the Red Sox. At all.

 

I know smaller market teams' fans (not all of them) like to rag on the huge markets like NY or BOS at almost any opportunity, but I don't know how anyone can be critical of the job Epstein did in Boston. He oversaw a highly-rated farm system (which turned out actual talent/production as well), & put together some incredible teams in the past decade. Yes, he sank a lot of money into huge contracts... some of them worked out, some of them didn't, but such is life as a large-payroll MLB team/GM. Two WS titles in four seasons is nothing short of legendary in present-day MLB. The Red Sox & Phillies will be remembered as the teams in the league for the first decade of the 2000s, and whether anyone likes it or not, Epstein will be remembered as the architect of the Boston teams.

 

 

Can't wait for him to pillage the farm system and blow his initial allotment of monopoly money on whoever is the 'best free agent available'.

 

I don't expect him to pillage the farm system, since he never did that in Boston. I think the trade for Adrian Gonzalez -- really the only deal I can think of that comes close to selling off prospects in a manner like Melvin did this past offseason -- has to be looked at as a smart move; the Red Sox absolutely should have been in win-now mode heading into the 2011 season. Aside from that move, what 'pillaging' moves did he make?

Epstein was a good gm but I do have a question why he gets credit for drafts for Boston but some here only give Jack Z credit for draft in Milwaukee. Not saying that is true for you toolive.

 

Also other moves that Epstein made involving trading big prospects include Beckett for #1 overall and #40 overall prospects Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. Trading one time #60 prospect and #44 prospect (Masterson and Hagadone) and a former first round pick for Victor Martinez. Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen were both top 70 prospects he traded for Jason Bay. He has traded a lot of top end prospects for guys in the past. And most of the trades have worked out. My main point is the Cubs dont have a lot of top end guys. How many top 100 prospects do they have?

 

His contracts lately have not been near as good. The Beckett extension looks questionable. The Crawford deal looks bad. The Dice-K deal was terrible. The Drew deal was bad. Letting Bay walk was good. He has been fairly hit or miss recently. I think he is a good baseball guy but I question him really being the savior of the Cubs

[BrewCrewRising]

I can't fault Theo for signing Crawford. If Prince sucks next year does that mean it was a mistake to sign him?

He also did not trade a lot of good talent. In any case though there have been some good points made above: Theo inherited great farm talent and a lot of talent was provided for him (not sure what is role was in drafts, etc.)

Theo being the GM of the Cubs doesn't lock them in a WS title, but the Cubs won three division championships with the less than competent Jim Hendry at the helm. They have a lot of resources to use and Theo at the helm is scarier than Hendry at the helm.

[TooLiveBrew]

What are the heavy majority of trades*, and what would you want a win-now GM to do? I just find it ironic that a fan of a smaller-market team that sold almost its entire farm system for an all-in season or two would criticize the GM of a huge market team for doing the same, when the big market teams can actually sustain that type of strategy. Also, the Red Sox have been regarded as having a good farm system for basically Epstein's entire tenure iirc.

 

I think the most valid criticism that can be leveled at Epstein is that he oversaw an organization that appeared to embrace PED use (or at least, try to take advantage of it). I'm definitely not happy to see him go the the Cubs, since I think he can rebuild that team into a contender. Fortunately for Brewers fans, they have a long way to go. The amount of money they have coming off the books is scary, and there's going to be some very legit FA talent available this offseason (especially pitching).

 

 

* EDIT: Thank you jjfanec for examples of the trades RockCo was referring to. I think when you analyze the trades he noted, Epstein & his scouting staff have to get high marks for talent evaluation.

[jjfanec]

I can't fault Theo for signing Crawford. If Prince sucks next year does that mean it was a mistake to sign him?

 

He also did not trade a lot of good talent. In any case though there have been some good points made above: Theo inherited great farm talent and a lot of talent was provided for him (not sure what is role was in drafts, etc.)

 

Theo being the GM of the Cubs doesn't lock them in a WS title, but the Cubs won three division championships with the less than competent Jim Hendry at the helm. They have a lot of resources to use and Theo at the helm is scarier than Hendry at the helm.

Signing Crawford at his age and for that contract was a mistake. He is definitely better than Hendry but I am interested to see what he does with that farm system

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, or more snarkily, 'what farm system?' I think the best course of action Epstein could take at this point would be a complete rebuild. There's probably never going to be a better time for a complete, blow-it-up type rebuild for the Cubs -- the current MLB team's bad overall & isn't just a couple star players away from contending. Cubs fans & ownership don't have the same win-now-always mentality that you find in Boston or New York, and Theo comes riding in on Shadowfax to save the world of men. He probably has carte blanche, & it's going to be interesting imo to see what he does.

 

By the way, I know this is during the NLCS & all, but discussions like this one are what makes BF.net's forums great. Excellent discussion.

[RockCoCougars]

What are the heavy majority of trades, and what would you want a win-now GM to do?

 

Look at the rosters for the championship teams. Most of those guys were not Red Sox draftees. They were either bought or traded for. Epstein added a good of pieces, trading prospects for guys like Schilling, etc. He just got very lucky that most of the guys he traded busted out elsewhere. As pointed out above, most of his free agent acquisitions have been brutal, but that's easy to overlook when you have monopoly money to spend.

 

Here's hoping he takes the same plan with the Cubs. The last wunderkind GM with two rings that they snatched up (McPhail) pretty much fell flat on his face.

[TooLiveBrew]

Look at the rosters for the championship teams. Most of those guys were not Red Sox draftees. They were either bought or traded for. Epstein added a good of pieces, trading prospects for guys like Schilling, etc. He just got very lucky that most of the guys he traded busted out elsewhere.

 

I don't think it was all just luck that the players traded away under

him for elite or elite-ish vets didn't pan out. The Braves have been

getting credit for making those kinds of trades for decades now, &

rightfully so imo.

 

 

As pointed out above, most of his free agent acquisitions have been brutal, but that's easy to overlook when you have monopoly money to spend.

 

Agreed, I just think a huge-market GM's job is a bit different from someone like Melvin's.

[RockCoCougars]

Yes, but the Red Sox had Pedro, Manny and Nomar and more in place. They were a good team from the get go. They also had stacks of monopoly money for Theo to play with. The Cubs have Cra-Z and Soriano. MLB also has steroid testing now. In my view, the Cubs should have bought out Aramis and used the money to lure Terry Ryan, because at this point they need someone with his philosophy. I'm glad they are taking this route though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes, but the Red Sox had Pedro, Manny and Nomar and more in place. They were a good team from the get go.

 

I don't disagree, but I also don't think that's mutually exclusive to saying Epstein did a good job as GM there.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't disagree, but I also don't think that's mutually exclusive to saying Epstein did a good job as GM there.

 

Point taken, but there is a big difference in taking over a 90 win team with stars in their primes as opposed to taking over a 90 loss team saddled with lots of dead money. In my view, the Cubs have Castro, Garza and a handful of OK players. It's going to be a major rebuild.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree that it'll be a major rebuild, and also that it should be. I would also personally put Soto in the group with Castro & Garza... but I also think that Garza & Soto would be the most prized pieces the Cubs could dangle on the trade market.

 

The Cubs' payroll in 2012 could wind up being roughly $40-50M less than 2011. What they choose to do right away will be very important long-term, imo. Sure, they can afford to go out & bid on Fielder, Pujols, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, etc. But I think they'd be better served to build around Castro & just start over. As of today, there are some interesting targets in the FA class for 2013, as well... and of course there always seem to be high-priced 'proven' players available in whatever FA season. Plus, if the Cubs focus on rebuilding their farm system, they're also in the position the Red Sox were/are -- able to trade prospects to take on big-money players, like Adrian Gonzalez, whose original or current clubs can no longer afford.

[sveumrules]

This move doesn't concern me much in the short term, but with the Cubs sure to adopt more "new-school" methods of player evaluation and acquisition Theo could get them turned around in a few years.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm now scared to death that Theo will target Prince in the offseason. However, I'm still holding out hope that he'll target pitching more. Definitely worried though.

[berniebrewer4life]

I'm now scared to death that Theo will target Prince in the offseason. However, I'm still holding out hope that he'll target pitching more. Definitely worried though.

as long as they vastly overpay for Prince, i have no problem with it. a 25m a year, for 8 year contract would cripple the Cubs for a while(especially the back end). I can live with that.

[monty57]

The Cubs' payroll in 2012 could wind up being roughly $40-50M less than 2011. What they choose to do right away will be very important long-term, imo. Sure, they can afford to go out & bid on Fielder, Pujols, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, etc. But I think they'd be better served to build around Castro & just start over. As of today, there are some interesting targets in the FA class for 2013, as well... and of course there always seem to be high-priced 'proven' players available in whatever FA season. Plus, if the Cubs focus on rebuilding their farm system, they're also in the position the Red Sox were/are -- able to trade prospects to take on big-money players, like Adrian Gonzalez, whose original or current clubs can no longer afford.

 

Money allows the big market teams to rebuild differently than a small market team. The Cubs could sign a young, proven player like Prince to a longer-term deal without giving up any prospects. Prince would put up his normal, MVP-caliber numbers, giving the fans something to cheer about while the team "rebuilds." This helps keep fans in the seats and viewers watching on TV, helping revenue streams remain high. Meanwhile, they can build the system through the draft and trades, and over the years they will have money to pick up some "salary dumps" without giving up many prospects. Sure, they have some bad contracts, but they'll probably lose Ramierez this off-season, Zambrano next year, and Soriano in a few seasons. If they play their cards right, they could be good in a few years, and at least be an entertaining team to watch as they put the pieces together. That in itself has historically been enough for fans to take a day off work to spend the afternoon in the sunny ballpark drinking a beer. Theo is better than most at "playing the cards right," so I think the future NL Central titles just got a little tougher to win.

[TooLiveBrew]

Very good points, Monty. Sadly, I think Fielder is an excellent fit for the Cubs, precisely for the reasons you lay out.

[danzig6767]

What are the heavy majority of trades, and what would you want a win-now GM to do?

 

Look at the rosters for the championship teams. Most of those guys were not Red Sox draftees. They were either bought or traded for. Epstein added a good of pieces, trading prospects for guys like Schilling, etc. He just got very lucky that most of the guys he traded busted out elsewhere. As pointed out above, most of his free agent acquisitions have been brutal, but that's easy to overlook when you have monopoly money to spend.

 

Here's hoping he takes the same plan with the Cubs. The last wunderkind GM with two rings that they snatched up (McPhail) pretty much fell flat on his face.

Theo was also saved by a few moves he tried making, but never happened

 

He put Manny on waivers hoping someone would take on the contract and had someone actually claimed Manny, Theo and Boston may not have those two rings.

 

He put in a big offer trying to lure in Jose Contreras, only to be bailed out when the Yankees trumped the Sox offer.

 

Besides the bigger name free agent blunders, he gave big contracts to both Renteria and Lugo, then had to pay other teams to take them off his hands.

 

That said, even though i think Theo is overrated somewhat, he likely should be significantly better than Hendry and it makes sense for him to take the Cubs job. The franchise is in as bad a shape as it's been in awhile and just getting them to the playoffs in a few years will have him being viewed as a savior in Chicago.

[RockCoCougars]

I may be missing someone, but Theo's best free agent acquisition remains Papi by far- and that was hardly a big move at the time. He's still living off that nearly 10 years later. Look at all the failures: Drew, Dice K, Cammy, Lackey, etc. and likely Crawford as well. If Theo does go after Prince, while good for his pocketbook it may not bode well for the rest of his career.

[Thurston Fluff]

Also, the Red Sox have been regarded as having a good farm system for basically Epstein's entire tenure iirc.

 

He won WS titles with no players drafted by him in 04 and two of significance in 07. As has been stated he didn't really trade away many prospects that have had a big impact in the majors. I think his drafting capabilities are overrated. Not saying he wasn't good only that his championships were won by means other than his drafting.

 

The advantage Epstein had was the same as Billy Beane and the Yankees (the forgotten early sabre disciples) had. Namely they were the only ones doing it. Now that virtually everyone is to one extent or another the advantage is gone. Now I think he's just another guy with a calculator. If you read the Boston Globe article it appears he missed on personalities this time around. Earlier on he either ignored attitude and got lucky or took those things in to greater consideration back then. Or the players changed. Given success they had I could see players simply getting lazy. Long story short he's an upgrade but to hope for a repeat of Boston would be ignoring the fact when other teams caught up with the approach he took his teams started to decline.

[TooLiveBrew]

I

may be missing someone, but Theo's best free agent acquisition remains

Papi by far- and that was hardly a big move at the time. He's still

living off that nearly 10 years later. Look at all the failures:

Drew, Dice K, Cammy, Lackey, etc. and likely Crawford as well. If Theo

does go after Prince, while good for his pocketbook it may not bode well

for the rest of his career.

The Ortiz pickup was an incredible move given how much value the Red Sox got from it. It's like one of the waiver wire deals we love Melvin for, except they got HoF-caliber production. Downplaying the impact & payoff of that move by saying it wasn't a big deal at the time is head-scratching to me. If I'm a GM, & there's one move that people wind up using to define me, I'll take the Ortiz signing about every single time. It's the type of FA deal you seem to demand more of for you to consider Epstein a good GM.

 

It feels like, to me, that you're building your argument around the already-decided "Epstein is overrated". I think if you're more fair about it, you see something different. Bill Mueller was a good FA signing, along with Mike Lowell, & Hideki Okajima -- certainly not the big money deals, but all guys that contributed three or so good seasons in Boston. And why limit it to free agency? Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez, even Kevin Millar ('traded' by FLA for cash) were big positives on the trade front.

 

It seems like the big, long-term deals he gave out haven't worked, but it's way too early imo to say that about Crawford. Even if you thought (which I know you do from previous posts) that Crawford was overrated coming into it, there's no way you reasonably predict that he'd hit over 60 points worse than his career AVG, & at least 100 OPS points below his career norms. I fully expect Crawford to rebound. Not to be worth the contract, but to play to his career norms. (and yes, I agree it was an unwise deal, much like Fielder's big FA payday will likely wind up being)

 

And why lump Cameron in as a significant Epstein FA failure? Come on -- I know you loathe the dude, but that was a 1-yr. deal that doesn't belong on that list except out of spite. If you count one-yr. deal players, (most recently Adrian Beltre) there were several that also worked out well for Epstein.

 

I don't think Epstein is the greatest GM ever or anything, but to me he looks decidedly above-average given the type of team he was operating. That's certainly more than you can say for Hendry, or any Cubs GM in some time.

 

 

If Theo does go after Prince, while good for his pocketbook it may not bode well for the rest of his career.

 

I can't disagree that it might not. I also don't think it's necessarily a good idea even if it doesn't wind up costing him his job. Being a GM in the NL now may give him greater pause on signing a DH-type like Fielder, but even with Boston he targeted the far better defender (& long-term projection) in Gonzalez over Prince.