The REAL Magic Number

[bigredrobbo]

Bill James, I believe it was (heading out to the game so not looking it up!) once calculated that the ACTUAL magic number for elimination was based on the equation "games back, squared < 4 x remaining games"

 

So, if the Cards are 7 games back, and we pretty much win at the same pace going home, then 7 squared = 49, which divided by 4 = 12.25.

 

So the magic number is actually 38 games left - 12 = 26 games.

 

I think!

 

 

If we get to, say, a 10 game lead, that magic number drops dramatically. My head hurts , now - no math on gameday!

[sdcheezhd]

I think he's saying something different. He's saying if you are 7 up with 12 to go you've effectively clinched (49 v 48). So that's not really saying the magic number is 26, it's saying if we are in the same place (7 up) 26 games from now we've effectively clinched.

 

Spinning it out, it's 8 up with 15 to go, 9 up with 20 to go, 10 up with 24 to go, 11 up with 30 to go, 12 up with 35 to go, 13 up with 42 to go.

 

So another week like this last one and we've Bill James clinched.

 

I guess it's like saying there are games you have a 100% of winning even though they aren't over yet. But it doesn't look like the formula takes into account how many of the remaining games are head to head and I think the 64 Phils are a counterexample (7 up with 10 to go). So I will stick with the regular magic number.