Mark Kotsay in the Clutch

[Raw Biz]

Ok, then who should the Brewers use as the first and second options to PH vs RHP late in games?

Gamel/Green. Give them spot starts to keep them fresh like Roenicke is doing with Kotsay. Obviously this is more likely with Green than Gamel since Gamel hasn't played much OF and is pretty bad at 3rd. If people are going to use Kotsay's "clutch" hits this year to defend him and ignore his otherwise terrible season, why not look at Green/Gamel? They are both OPSing near or at 1.000. Sure it's AAA but I doubt Kotsay could OPS 1.000 in AAA and I would bet that both could OPS more than Kotsay's .650.

I'm not saying that I'm not happy that Kotsay has gotten a few big hits. The problem is though, he's only gotten a FEW big hits. He's done nothing the rest of the year and probably will continue to play poorly. So while he may have contributed to a couple wins by getting the game winning/tying hit, his overall poor play has probably cost them more. It's just not as easily quantifiable/memorable because walk-off hits are easier to view as directly winning a game.

George Kottaras was OPSing 1.000 in PCL Nashville as well.

Yeah but we've seen what Kottaras can do in the majors. Gamel/Green have also been OPSing 1.000 over the entire season, Kottaras as only down there a couple of months. Sure Gamel has gotten a few chances in the past but they were sporadic. I think part of the problem is that while Kotsay is a fine 25th guy, he's being used as a 20th guy. To me, that means that guys behind him should be cut first. I would be fine keeping Kotsay and cutting one/two of Lopez/Counsell/Wilson for Green/Gamel.

I also agree that at this point in the season, it would be hard to throw a guy like Green into the mix and ask him to be your #1 PH. (I think he should've gotten the call two months ago and this point would be moot but that's another debate.). However, I don't believe that just because a guy is a rookie means he will automatically struggle. I think we should start preparing for the playoffs and since at least one of Lopez/Counsell/Wilson and possibly Hairston will be cut once Weeks/Gomez are healthy, we should just cut one of those guys now and get Green/Gamel eligible for post-season rosters. I would DFA one of those guys with the understanding they will be back up once September starts. Let's see what the young kids have so the option is at least there to use them in the playoffs.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't have much faith in Gamel being an impact late season pinch hitter. I think that the 'gritty vet' types like Kotsay are better suited for PH duty. Gamel needs to take his lumps as an every day player, hopefully sooner rather than later.

[gregmag]

Why is everyone so sure that Green or Gamel could excel in Kotsay's role. Sure they are having great seasons at AAA while palying every day but that is quite different than getting 5-7 at bats a week in MLB while also many times facing very tough relievers. Its not that I think they couldn't do it; but its comparing apples and oranges and at this point in the season I don't know that the Brewers have the luxury of letting them sink or swim.

 

I mean how would any of the regulars fare in a pinch hitting role like Kotsay? Personally outside of Braun I think they would all suck at it. I just don't think it is as easy as bringing up your best everyday AAA players, cutting the veterans, and all of a sudden our bench will be world beaters

I'm not at all sure that Operation Rookie Bench would succeed. I am sure that, based on the best tools we have for trying to figure this stuff out, Operation Rookie Bench would have a better likelihood of succeeding than continuing with the present group. To put it another way, turn your question around: How can you be sure that Kotsay will get more clutch hits? Of course we could never settle this argument one way or the other, because you can't play both groups of players at once.

 

As for the peculiar difficulty of Kotsay's job, you're basically arguing that pinch-hitting is something that certain hitters who aren't good enough to play regularly can do better than regulars. I don't see it; I think a better hitter makes a better pinch-hitter. Also, not to beat a dead horse, Kotsay hasn't done the job well, so it isn't like you'd be running a great risk that whoever replaced him in the role would bring down the level of performance.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

What is the norm for players in Kotsay's role?

 

I can't stress enough how much I don't care how a player in Kotsay's role typically hits. We have better options. They should be used.

In other words you don't know. I'm asking for actual evidence that there is someone more capable of this role. So far all I see is people comparing apples to oranges. WE know he isn't a good hitter in the absolute sense. I want to know if there is some quality that guys like Kotsay possess that is useful to that role. Is he better or worse than the average pinch hitter/backup? So far I haven't seen anyone show me he is or isn't the norm for his role. Hell I haven't seen anyone actually tell me what the norm is. I'm starting to believe nobody actually knows. If someone does please share.

[FVBrewerFan]

Here are the players with most PH for contending NL Team:

 

.286 Kotsay

.263 Burroughs (AZ)

.250 Hamilton (STL)

.241 Gload (PHI)

.239 Conrad (ATL)

.192 Burrell (SF)

 

.216 NL Avg for PH

 

Yes, like all stats this doesn't tell the whole story. It does tell me PH is even tougher than I thought. So, you bring up Green or Gamel tomorrow for the primary purpose of PH, and I find it hard to believe they could outperform Kotsay in that role.

[RockCoCougars]

Disclaimer: I'm of the belief that prospects are generally overrated here... but I really don't know who would be a better option than Kotsay at this point (I'm assuming that the 'better options' are in Nashville right now). For pinch hitting, I can't think of any rookies that have ever been good pinch hitters, I'm assuming the list is pretty short. As for a bench guy, are the guys in Nashville better players than Kotsay? Perhaps, but why would you bring them up to rot on the bench until their season is over? If Kotsay were starting in RF or something, I could see the argument, but he's starting 2 or 3 games a week.

[FVBrewerFan]

Disclaimer: I'm of the belief that prospects are generally overrated here... but I really don't know who would be a better option than Kotsay at this point (I'm assuming that the 'better options' are in Nashville right now). For pinch hitting, I can't think of any rookies that have ever been good pinch hitters, I'm assuming the list is pretty short. As for a bench guy, are the guys in Nashville better players than Kotsay? Perhaps, but why would you bring them up to rot on the bench until their season is over? If Kotsay were starting in RF or something, I could see the argument, but he's starting 2 or 3 games a week.

 

 

He is? Agreed with most of your post until your last sentence.

[RockCoCougars]

Disclaimer: I'm of the belief that prospects are generally overrated here... but I really don't know who would be a better option than Kotsay at this point (I'm assuming that the 'better options' are in Nashville right now). For pinch hitting, I can't think of any rookies that have ever been good pinch hitters, I'm assuming the list is pretty short. As for a bench guy, are the guys in Nashville better players than Kotsay? Perhaps, but why would you bring them up to rot on the bench until their season is over? If Kotsay were starting in RF or something, I could see the argument, but he's starting 2 or 3 games a week.

 

 

He is? Agreed with most of your post until your last sentence.

I'm not advocating it, but hasn't that been roughly how much he's started since Hart got back? I'm assuming with Hairston in the fold that number will probably be closer to 1 or 2.

[TheCrew]

I'd take Kotsay anyday of the week and twice on Sunday over Gamel as a pinch hitter - one big reason is Kotsay strikes out 1 in every 10 plate appearances at the MLB level. Gamel, while it is a small sample size, had struck out over 1 in 3 times. Not what I want from a pinch hitter, not to mention Kotsay has better numbers in every other area.

 

Sure Gamel/Green are younger, but that is all they have going for them in terms of value as PH over Kotsay. At this point in the season - with 6 weeks left to go in the regular season - do you really want to put a rookie who has not done well in short stints at the MLB level in that situation over a veteran who has produced multiple times in that role this year?

 

Green should have been up 2 months ago to platoon (at the least) with McGehee - but that's for another topic.

[TheCrew]

yep, I agree with you 100%.

 

I think the issue that some have is that the stathead's take their advanced sabermetrics and put them as the be-all end-all of discussion; as if they will not accept that there are exceptions.

 

I agree with the stats and what they tell me, historically, about a player. But every now and then those exceptions pop their heads up. Maybe for only a week. Maybe a month. Maybe an entire season. These outliers will "usually" resort back to the mean, but not always. It seems like a lot of sabermetric disciples on this board and across the internet will absolutely refuse to acknowledge the existence of any possibility at all of a player making a change and becoming a better player (Jose Bautista springs to mind as a player that stunk and stunk and even though the sabermetric statistics said that last year was a fluke, based on his previous 7 seasons or whatever it was, he has brought his game up and changed the complete perception of his abilities.)

 

Russ, I like your post as it seems that you are very open to variables and exceptions to the rule. Bravo!

 

edit: please understand that I am NOT advocating that Kotsay, Betancourt and the like are now "healed" and will change their game for the better. That's still to be determined. I believe that they will return to their mean numbers. However, I can accept that there is a chance, however small (cue the "Dumb and Dumber" clip again), that maybe they have turned a corner and become a different player, however slight of difference that may be.

Excellent post and put it into words much better than I could. Just seems like some have been anti-kotsay and anti-yuniB since the

season started - and the primary basis for that was WAR and UZR in most

cases - and there is zero flex with that, regardless of what they do on the field for the 2011 Brewers.

[logan82]

What is the norm for players in Kotsay's role?

 

I can't stress enough how much I don't care how a player in Kotsay's role typically hits. We have better options. They should be used.

In other words you don't know. I'm asking for actual evidence that there is someone more capable of this role. So far all I see is people comparing apples to oranges. WE know he isn't a good hitter in the absolute sense. I want to know if there is some quality that guys like Kotsay possess that is useful to that role. Is he better or worse than the average pinch hitter/backup? So far I haven't seen anyone show me he is or isn't the norm for his role. Hell I haven't seen anyone actually tell me what the norm is. I'm starting to believe nobody actually knows. If someone does please share.

Since you care, read post #44 this thread.

 

What I am saying is that if I thought Kotsay was the best option within our system I would have no problem with him. As it is we probably have 3 guys who have better talent it AAA right now who could be had for nothing. Of course we will never know with 100% certainty that any of those guys would be better but we don't know until we try. Kotsay has been a bad player and it just boggles the mind that there has been zero attempt to replace him.

[dlk9s]

This thread is just one big...

 

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/4709/rachelgp6.jpg

[theavrock]

I think people are arguing two different things here. No one is saying that Kotsay hasn't been good in a few moments this season or that if Green/Gamel had been in those spots they would have performed any better.

 

What the "sabers" are saying is that going forward Kotsay is less likely to provide such performance in those moments (or any other) than guys like Green and Gamel.

 

Baseball is a very unpredictable game and the goal of "sabers" is to try and provide what clarity can be provided. Just about anything can happen in 1 AB in 1 game, but the key is to put the players that are most likely to succeed in that situation. This is why people are clamoring for replacing guys like Kotsay.

 

I love that he has come through in some key situations, but I have no ideas of him being a better option off the bench than Green/Gamel or quite a few other people in the organization.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Clutchness is in absolutely no way, shape, or form, predictable. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist, or doesn't happen. If a career .150 hitter has 3 game winning hits in 2 weeks, that's clutch, but it doesn't predict future 'clutchness' at all.

 

If Kotsay's ZIPs for the rest of the season say he's going to hit about .260, I'd expect him to hit .260 in clutch situations. That doesn't mean he will, it just means with a large enough sample, that would be the expected production.

 

That is the only thing I think the 'statheads' are trying to say here. For some reason, 'statheads' and 'SABR' have seemingly become dirty words around here.

 

So in theory, if Gamel, Green, or anyone else is predicted to do better than Kotsay in 'normal' at bat situations, there's no reason to assume they'd do worse in 'clutch' situations.

 

That's not to say that there's not a human factor. I agree that being a 'gritty vet' may provide some unmeasurable benefit in such situations, but I don't know if that's something that roster decisions should be based on. I don't know that there's any substantial evidence that Gamel or Green would feel overwhelmed or daunted by pressure at bats in a playoff scenario. These aren't 13 year olds in the little leauge world series, they're professional ball players who've been preparing for the better part of the last decade to play in the major leagues.

 

Like any prospect, they may pan out, they may not. But decisions shouldn't be being made based on Mark Kotsay being a 'grizzled vet' when he's supplying the offensive punch of a backup catcher.

 

Clearly, in 2003, Miguel Cabrera's lack of veteran grittyness did not hold the Marlins back, nor did it prevent him from putting up an OPS over 1.100 in the LCS against the Cubs.

[rluzinski]

Are there exceptions? Of course. Does any of us know ahead of time who are the exceptions? No. All I know is it's unlikely that Betancourt will continue to beat his batting projections by anywhere near as much as he has been the last two months. It's also unlikely that Kotsay will continue to bat three-something with RISP. That doesn't make me a pessimist; that doesn't keep me from enjoying this wonderful season. It's just the reality of the situation.

 

Projecting a career arc for a free agent deal or arbitration contract is one thing, but continually leaning on sabermetrics to prove/discount small sample randomness is like timing a 100-meter sprint with a sundial

That is a terrible analogy. In fact, the opposite of what you are suggesting is true. I'm leaning on high school statistics to tell me that there is too much statistical noise in a small sample to give us much useful information. Whether it's baseball or flipping coins, the noise largely drowns out the signal. Your sundial is telling you that it MIGHT be useful, however.

[rluzinski]

Here are the players with most PH for contending NL Team:

 

.286 Kotsay

.263 Burroughs (AZ)

.250 Hamilton (STL)

.241 Gload (PHI)

.239 Conrad (ATL)

.192 Burrell (SF)

 

.216 NL Avg for PH

 

Yes, like all stats this doesn't tell the whole story. It does tell me PH is even tougher than I thought. So, you bring up Green or Gamel tomorrow for the primary purpose of PH, and I find it hard to believe they could outperform Kotsay in that role.

Kotsay's line as a PH: .286/.333/.286/.619 (28 AB)

The 2011 NL as PH .216/.293/.321/.614.

I think that tells me more about the quality of the type of batter that's asked to PH more than anything else. Making up numbers, we might expect those guys to OPS .650 as a starter, or something like that. Kotsay has performed about as expected as a PH because he's not a very good hitter overall (yes I know, if all you need is a single, he's done fine).

There is no question that players perform worse as a pinch hitter than when they start (it's been statistically proven). It's also fair to assume that some players will perform better in that role than others. I don't know if it's automatically fair to assume that veteran players will limit the gap between their expected performance as a starter and as a pinch hitter. I know it's stated as fact and it wouldn't surprise me if it were true but I've never seen any statistical evidence of it. I have to imagine it's been looked at, however.

 

[1992casey]

I can't think of any rookies that have ever been good pinch hitters

 

Along with the appropriate sample size disclaimer, here's Prince Fielder's 2005 pinch hitting line:

 

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
28	2	8	0	0	2	9	14	1	11	0	0	.286	.300	.500	.800

Given the line that Russ posted above, this doesn't look bad at all. It beats what a lot of pinch hitters are doing.

[endaround]

If Kotsay was only a pinch hitter I wouldn't care. The problem has been he's been starting and playing the field over much better players. He should never have started over Gomez for example.

[TheCrew]

Probably mentioned already, but how many starts has Kotsay had this season?

[monty57]

I'm not a "stathead" or "SABR zealot," so I'll put this the way my simple brain understands it:

 

I think everyone should be able to agree that some players are better than others, so let's assume that's a fact.

 

Everyone will probably also agree that Ryan Braun is a better player than a random A ball player, so let's also assume that's a fact.

 

However, in one PA, the random A-baller could have a better outcome than Ryan Braun. In fact, he probably has a decent shot in one PA of matching or beating Braun (Russ and others here could probably give you rough odds of that happening).

 

Over 20 PA, that random A-baller could still have a better outcome than Ryan Braun, but the odds would be less of that happening.

 

Over 200 PA, the odds get less. Over 600 (roughly a full season), the odds are even less. Over a career, the odds are almost non-existant.

 

The moral of the story is that we should try to put the best players on the roster, and to utilize the talent to maximize our efficiencies. If an inferior hitter is only going to get a handful of PA's (or an inferior defender only gets limited PT in the field), it's not as big a concern, as there is a chance a less talented player will outperform the more talented player. However, that doesn't mean we should just put lesser players on the team and say "it doesn't matter because they don't play much and can occasionally do well." The "sun shines on a dog's rear end" theory is not a good basis for roster management. Of course, there are concerns over service time, player development, etc, but for the most part, we should still try to put the best players on the roster.

 

The question then becomes: "Is Kotsay the best available player for his role?" I'd argue that Kotsay is better than Counsell/Wilson/Lopez, so he wouldn't be my first choice to jettison. I'd bring up a more talented player from AAA and drop one of Counsell/Wilson/Lopez. Then it would be up to Roenicke to determine how to allocate the PT to maximize talent. When Hart was out earlier in the year (meaning more starts for the backup) I would have liked us to have our most talented player for that role. There are pretty good arguements that Kotsay wasn't the most talented player, but he filled the role.

 

So yes, I'm happy when any player does something to help us win. I also think Kotsay is okay as long as he only gets a couple PA's per week. If he (and Counsell/Wilson/Lopez) are not the best options for Sept and the potential playoff games, I hope we get the best options onto the 25-man roster by Aug 31.

[endaround]

Probably mentioned already, but how many starts has Kotsay had this season?

45 from what I can tell.

[ninja33]

Kotsay starts

 

April/March: 13 (Hart injured)

May: 12 (Morgan injured)

June: 6

July: 11 (Braun injured)

August: 3

 

Total: 45

[The Truth]

45 starts is about 35 too many. And he should never start in CF unless in case of an emergency

 

Other than that, this thread is dealing with too small of a sample size for me to think its worth talking about his stats

 

I don't want Kotsay as a Brewer. I fear him in a clutch playoff situation, and I'm thrilled when I'm wrong about him!

[TheCrew]

I don't think we'll see him start much going forward - take away the injuries and there is a good chance he wouldn't even be at 20 at this point.

[rluzinski]

I'm not a "stathead" or "SABR zealot," so I'll put this the way my simple brain understands it:

 

I think everyone should be able to agree that some players are better than others, so let's assume that's a fact.

 

Everyone will probably also agree that Ryan Braun is a better player than a random A ball player, so let's also assume that's a fact.

 

However, in one PA, the random A-baller could have a better outcome than Ryan Braun. In fact, he probably has a decent shot in one PA of matching or beating Braun (Russ and others here could probably give you rough odds of that happening).

 

Over 20 PA, that random A-baller could still have a better outcome than Ryan Braun, but the odds would be less of that happening.

 

Over 200 PA, the odds get less. Over 600 (roughly a full season), the odds are even less. Over a career, the odds are almost non-existant.

 

The moral of the story is that we should try to put the best players on the roster, and to utilize the talent to maximize our efficiencies. If an inferior hitter is only going to get a handful of PA's (or an inferior defender only gets limited PT in the field), it's not as big a concern, as there is a chance a less talented player will outperform the more talented player. However, that doesn't mean we should just put lesser players on the team and say "it doesn't matter because they don't play much and can occasionally do well." The "sun shines on a dog's rear end" theory is not a good basis for roster management. Of course, there are concerns over service time, player development, etc, but for the most part, we should still try to put the best players on the roster.

 

The question then becomes: "Is Kotsay the best available player for his role?" I'd argue that Kotsay is better than Counsell/Wilson/Lopez, so he wouldn't be my first choice to jettison. I'd bring up a more talented player from AAA and drop one of Counsell/Wilson/Lopez. Then it would be up to Roenicke to determine how to allocate the PT to maximize talent. When Hart was out earlier in the year (meaning more starts for the backup) I would have liked us to have our most talented player for that role. There are pretty good arguements that Kotsay wasn't the most talented player, but he filled the role.

 

So yes, I'm happy when any player does something to help us win. I also think Kotsay is okay as long as he only gets a couple PA's per week. If he (and Counsell/Wilson/Lopez) are not the best options for Sept and the potential playoff games, I hope we get the best options onto the 25-man roster by Aug 31.

I think you laid that all out very well and I agree completely. I just hope the Melvin adds one or two more options off the bench before the playoffs.

I think we should really resist the urge of turning this into another general discussion on Kotsay. The topic of this thread was Kotsay's role on the team as a pinch hitter and whether we should expect him to perform well in high leverage situations going forward.