Mark Kotsay in the Clutch

[JohnBriggs12]

I would use Gamel over Kotsay in high leverage situations after he gets called up, but I just don't think that's going to happen because of Roenicke's love for gritty veterans. I see where you are coming from, Russ, and I would rather have a better overall hitter, but at least Kotsay has come up big a few times this year despite his lack of ability.

No offense to Gamel, but he's facing guys that at best are the equivalent of the 11th and 12th guys on major league staffs and at worst are worse than that. Kotsay has faced major league starting pitching and major league closers and late inning specialists all year. If I need a hit late, I'll take the veteran.

[rluzinski]

The best way to increase the likelihood of clutch hits is to have good hitters for clutch situations.

 

Those guys are starters. To believe there is this supply of good hitters that are wiling to sit on the bench and wait for their moment is what seems far fetched.

I posted his current projection in this thread. No one expects great hitter off the bench but I expect a projected OPS higher than .650.

"To some, it doesn't matter what a player does for the Brewers this season, it's more important what he did over the past 4 seasons and what advanced statistics suggest he may do in the future."

Give me ONE good reason that I should limit myself to only looking at what Kotsay has done with the Brewers when trying to estimate his ability to play baseball? And you all really need to get over this "advanced statistics" silliness. Just look at his BA/OBP/SLG from the last few years, weighing his most recent performances more and also taking his age into account. That's not an "advanced", it's common sense.

[MJLiverock]

I can understand and agree with having the best hitter possible for use as a pinch hitter or in clutch situations. As was mentioned though, those consistent good hitters are starters and not bench players. A guy like Gamel should out produce Kotsay over the course of a season but as a limited action role player I'm not so sure. Guys complain about hating to DH where all they do is sit around between ABs, imagine being a PH'er and going days between AB's and then suddenly get up face a closer or situational specialist with guys on base. That is not the same as playing everyday and getting 3-5 AB's, there is a mental aspect to filling that role vs. playing everyday on top of having the ability to hit the ball. I think the vets get that role so often because of the mental aspect as well as they may still be decent hitters for that one moment of concentration vs. playing everyday and just not having the ability to keep it up all season long anymore.

 

Kotsay is fine in that role, like Kapler was before or Edmonds. I remember earlier when people were clamoring for Russell Branyan for the bench in place of Kotsay because he has power, but looking at The Muscle's stats since then he doesn't look like much of an upgrade in the PH role and it was a good thing they didn't dump Kotsay for Branyan.

[Baldkin]

Yuni B has been one of the best SS in all of baseball recently - roughly a 2 month stretch - should he be benched because he's sucked in the past? At some point you have to focus on what a player is doing today, not what he has done in the past - otherwise your never going to find the diamond in the rough and your always going to hold em when you should have folded.

Yes, he should be benched. His OPS the last 8 games is now down to about .661. When can we say the "hot streak" is over?

 

Your kind of thinking is why St Louis is starting Corey Patterson. Every Brewers fan should be glad for that.

 

As for Kotsay, bases empty, he's hit .189 this season. ONE EIGHTY NINE. Can one of you "He just knows how to be clutch" guys explain to me why he can't start a rally?

 

His wOBA with guys in scoring position is .308, that's bad. His wOBA in 'high leverage' situations is .275, that's really, really bad.

[rluzinski]

Projection systems attempt to intelligently and objectively looks at past performance to predict future performance. The methodologies they employ are based on statistical studies. For instance, if a player who's been a poor batter his whole life has two great months, his projection will go up but only by a modest amount. Why? Because history shows us that is what happens on the average. If a batter overperforms in the clutch over 50-some AB, history tells us that he will NOT continue to do so.

 

Are there exceptions? Of course. Does any of us know ahead of time who are the exceptions? No. All I know is it's unlikely that Betancourt will continue to beat his batting projections by anywhere near as much as he has been the last two months. It's also unlikely that Kotsay will continue to bat three-something with RISP. That doesn't make me a pessimist; that doesn't keep me from enjoying this wonderful season. It's just the reality of the situation.

[TheCrew]

Yes, he should be benched. His OPS the last 8 games is now down to about .661. When can we say the "hot streak" is over?

 

Your kind of thinking is why St Louis is starting Corey Patterson. Every Brewers fan should be glad for that.

 

As for Kotsay, bases empty, he's hit .189 this season. ONE EIGHTY NINE. Can one of you "He just knows how to be clutch" guys explain to me why he can't start a rally?

 

His wOBA with guys in scoring position is .308, that's bad. His wOBA in 'high leverage' situations is .275, that's really, really bad.

Huh? First off, I never said 'he just knows how to be clutch' - Secondly, Corey Patterson hasn't started a game for the Cards in a week and he isn't/wasn't starting because of a hot streak. He was starting because their idiot manager chased Rasmus out of town. Thirdly, Yuni hasn't been as hot over the past 8 games - given that he was just a notch below Tulo for a while, that's not surprising - but he's still been very good, I'd gladly take that production all season.

 

Mark Kotsay isn't a great player, I wouldn't even say he's a good player - that's why he's a bench player - and as the 24/25th guy on the roster, he is fine. Given that he has had multiple game winning hits in the past month, I frankly could care less what his WAR or UZR is and I could care less what it was over the past 2, 3 or 4 seasons. None of that matters at this point.

 

It's also a bit misleading to simply just look at wOBA in the clutch situations - he's got a pretty healthy triple slash lines in medium and high leverage situations this season (for a 5th of'er):

Medium lev. .321/.365/.462

High lev. .292/.320.333

 

It just gets old coming on this site and seeing the same ole "who cares what he did last night, advanced statistics suggest he will not do well over the remainder of the season - he should have never been signed, bla, bla, bla". At some point, you have to look at what a player is doing today - like I said previously, following the kind of thinking your suggesting will never allow you to find the diamond in the rough or breakout player and you'll always end up paying for a player past his prime. At some point, you look at what a guy is doing today.

 

Like it or not, Mark Kotsay and Yuni B are a big part of the reason the Brewes have a 7 game lead in the division and have won 20 of 25 games.

[reillymcshane]

Like it or not, Mark Kotsay and Yuni B are a big part of the reason the Brewes have a 7 game lead in the division and have won 20 of 25 games.

I'd say that Kotsay and Yuni are a big reason we don't have a bigger lead than 7 games. These two players, along with McGehee, have been a massive drag on our offense all year.

 

Have they had their successes? Yes. Many of them. But when a guy gets 200 or 300 or 400 ABs they are going to have moments and stretches of success. Kotsay had a great moment last night. Yuni did on Saturday with the home run. But the rest of the season is littered with, overall, bad play, including poor defense and bad to mediocre hitting.

 

Just because Kotsay or Yuni is on a successful team doesn't mean they have contributed that much to the success. Again, it doesn't take away the times they have had success. But baseball is like that - it's 162 games, and 'big hits' we all remember can cloud dozens of other moments that could be categorized as 'failures'.

 

I think Kotsay's issue is that he's played too much. Like someone said, he's a 24th or 25th guy. The more you play a guy like that, the less valuable he becomes. We should simply have a better player on the field most of the time than Kotsay.

[FVBrewerFan]

Are there exceptions? Of course. Does any of us know ahead of time who are the exceptions? No. All I know is it's unlikely that Betancourt will continue to beat his batting projections by anywhere near as much as he has been the last two months. It's also unlikely that Kotsay will continue to bat three-something with RISP. That doesn't make me a pessimist; that doesn't keep me from enjoying this wonderful season. It's just the reality of the situation.

 

It's unlikley that Betancourt will stay as hot as his last two months, but it is likely he can retain his current OPS for the rest of the season. Just as he isn't as great of a hitter as he has shown recently, he's also not as bad as he performed earlier in the year. As Denny Green would say "He is who we thought he would be."

 

As far as Kotsay goes, we just disagree. His stats for the past four years tells me one thing. He shouldn't be a starter. Guess what? He's not. His job is to PH, and he has done that well. Now to get that out of him, you do need to give him the occasional start to keep him sharp. That hurts a bit, but it's worth it to get a few game winning RBIs out of him.

 

As much as I wanted green up earlier this year, and still do, I wouldn't want either Green or Gamel in that role over Kotsay. I don't care if his OPS was .150 over the past 4 years. He's delivering when called upon THIS year, and that's all that matters. You mention what history shows us. THAT'S what history shows us. A player is in the right situation at the right time, and it just works. Stats may say it isn't supposed to happen, it just does.

[gregmag]

It just gets old coming on this site and seeing the same ole "who cares what he did last night, advanced statistics suggest he will not do well over the remainder of the season - he should have never been signed, bla, bla, bla". At some point, you have to look at what a player is doing today - like I said previously, following the kind of thinking your suggesting will never allow you to find the diamond in the rough or breakout player and you'll always end up paying for a player past his prime. At some point, you look at what a guy is doing today.

 

Like it or not, Mark Kotsay and Yuni B are a big part of the reason the Brewes have a 7 game lead in the division and have won 20 of 25 games.

For me, what gets old is reading posts that basically amount to "I have selected certain information that I choose to emphasize over all other information, I see no need to explain or justify my selection of that information, and anyone who disagrees with me, no matter what that person actually says, is guilty of using 'advanced statistics,' which are, by the way, witchcraft."

 

Also, your suggestion that people who use past stats to assess baseball performance "end up paying for a player past his prime" is way off the mark (in addition to being a really funny argument to make in defense of Mark Kotsay). Statistical analysis allows teams to predict aging players' declines more accurately and avoid overpaying them in their decline years. The point of using a few seasons' information rather than a few games' information to project future performance is that one is meaningful and the other is meaningless. You're absolutely right that we need to adjust those projections for expected aging decline, which only makes more clear what a bad bet Kotsay is.

 

As for finding the diamond in the rough, tell me who the next one is. You don't know and I don't know. Teams figure that stuff out by giving people chances and extending those chances when they perform well -- like with McGehee two years ago and Axford last year. What does Mark Kotsay's awful season, wrapped around three or four timely hits, have to do with finding a diamond in the rough?

 

I can't stress enough how happy and grateful I am for Mark Kotsay's good moments. He is indeed part of the team, and every time he helps the team is a plus. But this is a baseball discussion board. If you want to do nothing but cheerlead, that's fine, and I'll be there with you a good bit of the time. But I want to talk and read other people's thoughts about how to make this team better.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Are there exceptions? Of course. Does any of us know ahead of time who are the exceptions? No. All I know is it's unlikely that Betancourt will continue to beat his batting projections by anywhere near as much as he has been the last two months. It's also unlikely that Kotsay will continue to bat three-something with RISP. That doesn't make me a pessimist; that doesn't keep me from enjoying this wonderful season. It's just the reality of the situation.

 

So what you're saying is that even though there really isn't any way to accurately predict what could happen over a 2-month stretch of baseball based on even the most sophisticated sabermetric analysis of large sample sizes, you're going to insist that trying to predict the future by using other ways isn't "the reality of the situation"? To me, the reality is at this point in the season, I don't really care what anyone's career wOBA or average WAR is - I'd rather enjoy the ride instead of reading explanations of how a stathead could still enjoy watching the very players sabermetrics despises succeed for their favorite team.

 

Since there are only about 2 months left of baseball that the Brewers could play (playoffs included), put me in the camp rooting for the "small sample exceptions" to the positive for the handful of players on the Crew's roster that have been getting skewered on this board since about February of this year. To me, this is where statistical analysis should take a back seat to fandom, because there will be an entire offseason to crunch all the numbers and fold spreadsheets full of them into paper hats and origami...just think, there will be that much larger a sample size to work with, too!

 

I think sabermetrics' best use in baseball is player evaluation for contract negotiations. If the analysis is done properly by GMs it can really help build solid organizations. However, it's a slippery slope trying use something formulated on past events to predict short-term future outcomes. There are enough exceptions to the rule in baseball to essentially discount "the rule". Projecting a career arc for a free agent deal or arbitration contract is one thing, but continually leaning on sabermetrics to prove/discount small sample randomness is like timing a 100-meter sprint with a sundial.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sorry, but two/a handful of instances of a guy getting a hit don't prove anything. Kotsay has been junk this year, as should have been expected. His line against RHP is embarassing.

[FVBrewerFan]

Ok, then who should the Brewers use as the first and second options to PH vs RHP late in games?

[fondybrewfan]

Agreed we didn't have anyone even in camp that I would feel comfortable in Kotsay's spot right now. It would be ridiculous to have Green and Gamel in his spot. Dickerson, Boggs? No Thanks. Sure we could have traded from some hypothetical left handed bat I suppose but that is a whole other argument. Kotsay arguable is the best possible late inning pinch hitter that we had on the team heading into spring training. You could have tried a minor leaguer; but then you take the risk of another Brad Nelson

[Thurston Fluff]

Projection systems attempt to intelligently and objectively looks at past performance to predict future performance.

 

I agree. I also think they work better for regular players than part timers. Perhaps I'm wrong. If anyone knows I'm sure you could show me where. Back to my question that I haven't seen answered. What is the norm for players in Kotsay's role? We keep talking about how terrible he is but terrible compared to what? Starters getting 400 ab's? Of course he is. If he wasn't he'd be getting those ab's. What does that really tell us? Is he below average compared to guys who get 200ab's? The average player in the league? The hypothetical replacement player? Is he below average when compared to other bench players? What is he substandard in comparison to? Once we answer what we are comparing him to then maybe we can get closer to agreement on how well he's done. Until then I think it's just stating the obvious. He isn't a good everyday player anymore.

[gregmag]

Ok, then who should the Brewers use as the first and second options to PH vs RHP late in games?

Any two of Caleb Gindl, Mat Gamel, or Taylor Green. Right now, today. Cut Kotsay, Counsell, and Lopez, bring those three guys up, and then -- to make the traditionalists happy -- try 'em all and ride the hot hand.

 

Look, my view on this isn't about "advanced statistics." It's about simple statistics -- age and batting average will do -- plus my belief that nothing about pinch-hitting, or playing baseball in a pennant race, or playing baseball in general, is magically harder for rookies. That belief isn't quantifiable; it's just my best sense of the world from what I've seen.

 

I'm quite sure that, if Caleb Gindl had been with the team this year

and put up Mark Kotsay's numbers, many of the people who are defending

Kotsay would be crying out for an experienced veteran to replace Gindl. I understand that a lot of people, like Doug Melvin, prefer veteran experience and distrust rookies. I just don't see much to support that view.

[Raw Biz]

Ok, then who should the Brewers use as the first and second options to PH vs RHP late in games?

Gamel/Green. Give them spot starts to keep them fresh like Roenicke is doing with Kotsay. Obviously this is more likely with Green than Gamel since Gamel hasn't played much OF and is pretty bad at 3rd. If people are going to use Kotsay's "clutch" hits this year to defend him and ignore his otherwise terrible season, why not look at Green/Gamel? They are both OPSing near or at 1.000. Sure it's AAA but I doubt Kotsay could OPS 1.000 in AAA and I would bet that both could OPS more than Kotsay's .650.

I'm not saying that I'm not happy that Kotsay has gotten a few big hits. The problem is though, he's only gotten a FEW big hits. He's done nothing the rest of the year and probably will continue to play poorly. So while he may have contributed to a couple wins by getting the game winning/tying hit, his overall poor play has probably cost them more. It's just not as easily quantifiable/memorable because walk-off hits are easier to view as directly winning a game.

[logan82]

What is the norm for players in Kotsay's role?

 

I can't stress enough how much I don't care how a player in Kotsay's role typically hits. We have better options. They should be used.

[pitchleague]

Projection systems attempt to intelligently and objectively looks at past performance to predict future performance. The methodologies they employ are based on statistical studies. For instance, if a player who's been a poor batter his whole life has two great months, his projection will go up but only by a modest amount. Why? Because history shows us that is what happens on the average. If a batter overperforms in the clutch over 50-some AB, history tells us that he will NOT continue to do so.

 

Are there exceptions? Of course. Does any of us know ahead of time who are the exceptions? No. All I know is it's unlikely that Betancourt will continue to beat his batting projections by anywhere near as much as he has been the last two months. It's also unlikely that Kotsay will continue to bat three-something with RISP. That doesn't make me a pessimist; that doesn't keep me from enjoying this wonderful season. It's just the reality of the situation.

yep, I agree with you 100%.

 

I think the issue that some have is that the stathead's take their advanced sabermetrics and put them as the be-all end-all of discussion; as if they will not accept that there are exceptions.

 

I agree with the stats and what they tell me, historically, about a player. But every now and then those exceptions pop their heads up. Maybe for only a week. Maybe a month. Maybe an entire season. These outliers will "usually" resort back to the mean, but not always. It seems like a lot of sabermetric disciples on this board and across the internet will absolutely refuse to acknowledge the existence of any possibility at all of a player making a change and becoming a better player (Jose Bautista springs to mind as a player that stunk and stunk and even though the sabermetric statistics said that last year was a fluke, based on his previous 7 seasons or whatever it was, he has brought his game up and changed the complete perception of his abilities.)

 

Russ, I like your post as it seems that you are very open to variables and exceptions to the rule. Bravo!

 

edit: please understand that I am NOT advocating that Kotsay, Betancourt and the like are now "healed" and will change their game for the better. That's still to be determined. I believe that they will return to their mean numbers. However, I can accept that there is a chance, however small (cue the "Dumb and Dumber" clip again), that maybe they have turned a corner and become a different player, however slight of difference that may be.

[jwill535]

For his current role, he is a perfect bench player. As long as he PHs and only plays once a week(in corner) he is what you want in a bench player. Remember, it is easier to have a older vet on the bench, because they are more likely to accept the role and tend to know how to handle it and how to prepare. Most dont understand the importance of the mental portion of being a bench player. There is no way at this point I want Gamel in a high leverage position late in a game over Kotsay.

[gregmag]

Projection systems attempt to intelligently and objectively looks at past performance to predict future performance.

 

I agree. I also think they work better for regular players than part timers. Perhaps I'm wrong. If anyone knows I'm sure you could show me where. Back to my question that I haven't seen answered. What is the norm for players in Kotsay's role? We keep talking about how terrible he is but terrible compared to what? Starters getting 400 ab's? Of course he is. If he wasn't he'd be getting those ab's. What does that really tell us? Is he below average compared to guys who get 200ab's? The average player in the league? The hypothetical replacement player? Is he below average when compared to other bench players? What is he substandard in comparison to? Once we answer what we are comparing him to then maybe we can get closer to agreement on how well he's done. Until then I think it's just stating the obvious. He isn't a good everyday player anymore.

I don't have the means to do a real statistical study of your question, but let's look at a quick and dirty snapshot: 4th and 5th of types, on other NL contenders, this season, by OPS. I don't know the teams inside-out, so I'm trying to get the right guys -- anyone can correct me:

 

Atlanta: Hinske, .755; Heyward, .699, or McLouth, .677.

Philly: Mayberry .797, Brown .728, Francisco .685

San Francisco: Burrell .760, Rowand .645

Arizona: Bloomquist (?) .686; Nady, .646

St. Louis: Craig .860, Patterson .435.

 

The Cardinals' situation is in flux because of the Rasmus trade. Craig isn't really that good, and that's a tiny sample for Patterson, although he's pretty bad.

 

Kotsay, at a .657 OPS, is right near the bottom of that range. He also can't defend or run. Everybody but Arizona has at least one extra OF who is clearly a better hitter than Kotsay. Obviously this is a motley bunch of players in varying career situations. Some of these guys are young, breaking-in types who are still outperforming him. There are some other bad veterans, although Rowand and Nady arguably have better recent track records. In general, I think this comparison suggests that you don't have to settle for Mark Kotsay as your extra OF.

 

But the real question is whether Mark Kotsay is the best guy for his job that the Brewers control. I think you have to believe AAA baseball isn't really baseball at all to look at the Brewers' system and conclude that he is.

[monty57]

July 8th, bottom of the 9th, Brewers trail 7-6, 2 outs, bases loaded facing Cordero, Kotsay lines a 2 run single to RF, Brewers win 8-7.

 

Two days later: bottom of the 9th, 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, Brewers trail 3-2, Kotsay pinch hits and lines a hit off of Cordero into short CF driving in the tying run.

 

So he's the new Bill Hall. Put him against the Reds and he'll have a big hit in the 9th.

Is there some enjoyment you get in mocking the guy for what he's done? Would you rather he not come through in those games to back your opinion of him as a player? He's 8 for 28 as a PH, the toughest job in baseball. The team is 27-18 in games he's started, many of those coming in place of an MVP candidate.

 

What more do you naysayers want out of a bench player?

 

Funny, I thought they played the Dodgers last night.

 

Boy, this is serious. I can't even tell a joke.

 

I haven't had too much of a problem with Kotsay this season, and less so since Hart came back and Kotsay is in the role he was hired for. I thought we should've kept Boggs instead of him at the start of the season, but not a really big deal. I was upset when Roenicke started Kotsay over Hart because in his opinion "Hart isn't a player you want to see out there everyday," based on some PAs in 2009 Spring Training, and I didn't like seeing Kotsay start in CF two days in a row when Morgan and Gomez were both healthy, but it seems he's being utilized correctly now.

[logan82]

We will have a backup outfielder that can run after Gomez comes back.

 

I think Gamel or Green would accept a backup role in return for MLB service time and a MLB paycheck.

[Polish Falcons]

Ok, then who should the Brewers use as the first and second options to PH vs RHP late in games?

Gamel/Green. Give them spot starts to keep them fresh like Roenicke is doing with Kotsay. Obviously this is more likely with Green than Gamel since Gamel hasn't played much OF and is pretty bad at 3rd. If people are going to use Kotsay's "clutch" hits this year to defend him and ignore his otherwise terrible season, why not look at Green/Gamel? They are both OPSing near or at 1.000. Sure it's AAA but I doubt Kotsay could OPS 1.000 in AAA and I would bet that both could OPS more than Kotsay's .650.

I'm not saying that I'm not happy that Kotsay has gotten a few big hits. The problem is though, he's only gotten a FEW big hits. He's done nothing the rest of the year and probably will continue to play poorly. So while he may have contributed to a couple wins by getting the game winning/tying hit, his overall poor play has probably cost them more. It's just not as easily quantifiable/memorable because walk-off hits are easier to view as directly winning a game.

George Kottaras was OPSing 1.000 in PCL Nashville as well.

[fondybrewfan]

Why is everyone so sure that Green or Gamel could excel in Kotsay's role. Sure they are having great seasons at AAA while palying every day but that is quite different than getting 5-7 at bats a week in MLB while also many times facing very tough relievers. Its not that I think they couldn't do it; but its comparing apples and oranges and at this point in the season I don't know that the Brewers have the luxury of letting them sink or swim.

 

I mean how would any of the regulars fare in a pinch hitting role like Kotsay? Personally outside of Braun I think they would all suck at it. I just don't think it is as easy as bringing up your best everyday AAA players, cutting the veterans, and all of a sudden our bench will be world beaters

[jjfanec]

Why is everyone so sure that Green or Gamel could excel in Kotsay's role.

Because Gamel was great when he was up earlier this year