Mark Kotsay in the Clutch

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think I'm starting to buy into Kotsay's value on our team. He's not a good hitter anymore and has very little power, but his ability to put together a good AB with good pitch recognition and contact hitting makes him a good pinch hit option late in games with runners on base. He's almost like Counsell was a couple years ago where he won't put up big numbers, but he's used in crucial situations to put together a professional AB. What do you guys think?

[rluzinski]

ZiPS ROS Projection:

.250/.301/.338/.639

I would rather have a better hitter that doesn't have to perform significantly better in high leverage situations to worth anything. Why? Because even if Kotsay has done well in high leverage situations this year (I don't believe he has when you look at all his high leverage AB's this year), there is little reason to think it will continue, at least not to the magnitude required to make him even an average hitter in that situation.

It's very easy to identify players who have performed well in the clutch for a certain period of time. Good luck telling me who is going to perform better than expected going forward, however.

[RockCoCougars]

Kotsay is a decent bat off the bench, despite what WAR and the advanced metrics say. Definitely not deserving of the hate he's gotten on here. He is what he is, a 24th or 25th guy on the roster. He's hitting .321 with RISP and .352 with men on. He's a poor defensive outfielder, but if he's not playing everyday, that's not a big deal. Kotsay is underrated as a hitter mostly because he doesn't walk much. Vice versa, a pop gun hitter like Jamey Carroll is overrated because he will look for the walk. This year Carroll is probably hitting the softest .294 in MLB history, hitting .167 with RISP, and 10- count them, 10 RBI in 396 PA.

[chadomac]

I've also been converted. I didn't like him for a long time, but he's come up with some big hits for us this year.

[rluzinski]

Kotsay is a decent bat off the bench, despite what WAR and the advanced metrics say.

What about BA, OBP and SLG? Is that too advanced for you? Since 2006:

.255/.313/.369

And he's been even worse than that this year. As for RISP split (that's kind of advanced!) Kotsay batted .179 w/RISP in 2010. Are you honestly suggesting he might have aquired some clutch skill between 2010 and 2011 and that we should continue to expect him to overperform like that with runners on? I find that absurd.

It seems like a significant portion of baseball fans use the results of a handful of game ending AB's to determine if they like a particular player or not. A fan can like anyone they want but that has almost nothing to do with how talented or valuable a batter is going forward.

[Warning Track Power]

I agree with you.

I think if the roster was constructed a little bit differently his value would be more apparent to us fans. But when you have a bench full of punch and judy hitters like Wilson, Counsell, Kotsay and (to date) Lopez, his perceived value is almost nothing.

Now, if our bench had some thump in other places, and looked more like:
C: Kottaras
IF/OF: Hairston, Kotsay, 2009 Lopez
PH (Power): Branyan/Giambi-type
I think we as fans would be more apt to give love to Kotsay and his contributions.

Or if he was from Whitefish Bay.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I would use Gamel over Kotsay in high leverage situations after he gets called up, but I just don't think that's going to happen because of Roenicke's love for gritty veterans. I see where you are coming from, Russ, and I would rather have a better overall hitter, but at least Kotsay has come up big a few times this year despite his lack of ability.

[rluzinski]

I would use Gamel over Kotsay in high leverage situations after he gets called up, but I just don't think that's going to happen because of Roenicke's love for gritty veterans. I see where you are coming from, Russ, and I would rather have a better overall hitter, but at least Kotsay has come up big a few times this year despite his lack of ability.

If we are talking about what Kotsay has done so far this year, yes it's great that he's done well in some important situations. The question is what do we expect going forward though, isn't it?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Right, but managers tend to make decisions based on past performance so I'm sure that Kotsay will be our #1 bat off the bench in high leverage situations going forward until he proves otherwise.

[RockCoCougars]

I think if the roster was constructed a little bit differently his value would be more apparent to us fans. But when you have a bench full of punch and judy hitters like Wilson, Counsell, Kotsay and (to date) Lopez, his perceived value is almost nothing.

 

Agreed. As I said, Kotsay is a 24th or 25th man. On this team, he's probably a 20th or 21st. It's not his fault they are keeping guys like Counsell around with no good reason.

 

And he's been even worse than that this year. And I think RISP splits seems a little advanced to just be thrown around like that. Kotsay batted .179 w/RISP. Are you honestly trying to say he magically got some clutch skill between 2010 and 2011 and that we should continue to expect him to overperform like that with runners on? That's basically absurd.

 

I honestly could care less about the past at this point. That discussion should have taken place before he was signed. Bottom line, Kotsay is on the team, and has hit well in big spots this year. Sometimes, you catch lightning in a bottle and these guys do it all year. may as well ride things out. I'm sure that I do overrate guys who get clutch hits somewhat based on perception, but bottom line, these big hits are the difference between winning and losing. Without looking, my guess is the team as a whole is hitting a lot better with RISP this year.

[Thurston Fluff]

If we are talking about what Kotsay has done so far this year, yes it's great that he's done well in some important situations. The question is what do we expect going forward though, isn't it?

 

I think the question is how much better could we expect from that role? There aren't many guys who are good and willing to be part time players. The ones who are get expensive for that role. IF there was some guy who was young with a low ceiling who happened to be good at putting together good ab's in limited play then I can see replacing Kotsay. I just don't think low ceiling guys can put together good ab's as well as older guys with experience can. They may no longer be viable starters due to age but still have the knowledge to put together a good ab when called upon.

 

I also think Kotsay getting more work early is now paying off. Both in keeping Hart and Braun a little fresher in the dog days of August and Kotsay being kept sharp. Well as sharp as Kotsay can be anyway.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know how anyone defines "clutch", but by essentially every way Baseball-Reference does it, Kotsay has sucked: http://www.baseball-refer...ear=2011&t=b#clutc::none

[logan82]

RockCoCougars wrote:

 

That discussion should have taken place before he was signed.

It did. We thought he sucked then.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bottom line, Kotsay is on the team, and has hit well in big spots this year.

What are these big spots?

[mkm13]

Some of you are so negative. Yes, there are players on the team who are below average. Yes, some of them are struggling. All teams have that. A lot of people think Yuni is a giant liability and is the worst player in baseball, RR is a terrible rookie manager, McGehee is terrible and Melvin is a headcase for not replacing him with Green, Counsell should have been long gone, Wolf needs to grow up and allow Lucroy catch him against lefties, etc.

 

We have the 4th best record in baseball and we have are 2 games away from having the 2nd best...despite having pretty significant injuries on the year. Grienke was out for awhile and majorly set back because of his injury, Hart was out for awhile, Weeks will be out a month, Gomez will be out for a month plus. Obviously some things are going right..but people are so focused on the negative. Everyone wants to play the game on paper...well in reality it does not work like that. Yes, Yuni is a bad SS, McGehee has been struggling, Counsell has looked lost...that does not mean the solutions are as easy as everyone makes it. Enjoy the ride and stop being so negative.

[1992casey]

I don't know how anyone defines "clutch"…

 

For starters, I'd stay away from RISP stats because they totally ignore the "clutchness" of getting on base with the bases empty. If someone doesn't get on base to begin with, RISP situations don't exist.

[Thurston Fluff]

Does anyone know what the production norm is for players with 250ish ab's per year are? I get that Kotsay isn't good in the absolute sense but how good is the average bench player/pinch hitter? Where does he compare to that? What can we expect out of that role regardless of who is in it? I haven't a clue.

[monty57]

Are you honestly suggesting he might have aquired some clutch skill between 2010 and 2011

 

I think he learned that skill while kicking back having a few brews with Counsell this spring. Unfortunately, Counsell lost that ability by kicking back and having a few brews with Kotsay. It's like osmosis.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bottom line, Kotsay is on the team, and has hit well in big spots this year.

What are these big spots?

July 8th, bottom of the 9th, Brewers trail 7-6, 2 outs, bases loaded facing Cordero, Kotsay lines a 2 run single to RF, Brewers win 8-7.

 

Two days later: bottom of the 9th, 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, Brewers trail 3-2, Kotsay pinch hits and lines a hit off of Cordero into short CF driving in the tying run.

 

The value of Kotsay is that he's been in virtually every situation imaginable and he's not going to be overwhelmed by the situation. Does that mean he's going to magically perform better than his numbers? No, but more importantly, he's not going to succumb to the situation and perform below it either.

[gregmag]

Some of you are so negative. Yes, there are players on the team who are below average. Yes, some of them are struggling. All teams have that. A lot of people think Yuni is a giant liability and is the worst player in baseball, RR is a terrible rookie manager, McGehee is terrible and Melvin is a headcase for not replacing him with Green, Counsell should have been long gone, Wolf needs to grow up and allow Lucroy catch him against lefties, etc.

 

We have the 4th best record in baseball and we have are 2 games away from having the 2nd best...despite having pretty significant injuries on the year. Grienke was out for awhile and majorly set back because of his injury, Hart was out for awhile, Weeks will be out a month, Gomez will be out for a month plus. Obviously some things are going right..but people are so focused on the negative. Everyone wants to play the game on paper...well in reality it does not work like that. Yes, Yuni is a bad SS, McGehee has been struggling, Counsell has looked lost...that does not mean the solutions are as easy as everyone makes it. Enjoy the ride and stop being so negative.

I'm sure enjoying the ride, and I'm happy to give credit where credit is due, including to players I don't think should be playing -- Kotsay's walk-off hits, Yuni's hot streak, McGehee's 3-homer game, Counsell's . . . well, hit. Props to all of them for their achievements.

 

But we haven't won anything yet. I want to win the World Series, and if we can do things to improve our chances of winning, then we should do them. That's not negativity -- it's ambition and desire. You can decide that we live in the best of all possible worlds if that's what floats your boat. I think the best teams are the ones that never stop thinking about how to get better.

 

Kotsay, at this late stage in his career, is a bad player. That's not negativity either; it's having eyes in my head. He doesn't hit well, he doesn't field well, and he doesn't run well. Yes, he has caught a couple of lightning bolts in a bottle, and again, I give him credit for that. But it means squat going forward. The best way to increase the likelihood of clutch hits is to have good hitters for clutch situations.

 

 

[monty57]

Bottom line, Kotsay is on the team, and has hit well in big spots this year.

What are these big spots?

July 8th, bottom of the 9th, Brewers trail 7-6, 2 outs, bases loaded facing Cordero, Kotsay lines a 2 run single to RF, Brewers win 8-7.

 

Two days later: bottom of the 9th, 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, Brewers trail 3-2, Kotsay pinch hits and lines a hit off of Cordero into short CF driving in the tying run.

 

So he's the new Bill Hall. Put him against the Reds and he'll have a big hit in the 9th.

[JohnBriggs12]

What are these big spots?

July 8th, bottom of the 9th, Brewers trail 7-6, 2 outs, bases loaded facing Cordero, Kotsay lines a 2 run single to RF, Brewers win 8-7.

 

Two days later: bottom of the 9th, 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, Brewers trail 3-2, Kotsay pinch hits and lines a hit off of Cordero into short CF driving in the tying run.

 

So he's the new Bill Hall. Put him against the Reds and he'll have a big hit in the 9th.

Is there some enjoyment you get in mocking the guy for what he's done? Would you rather he not come through in those games to back your opinion of him as a player? He's 8 for 28 as a PH, the toughest job in baseball. The team is 27-18 in games he's started, many of those coming in place of an MVP candidate.

 

What more do you naysayers want out of a bench player?

 

Funny, I thought they played the Dodgers last night.

[RockCoCougars]

Kotsay has 17 hits with RISP this season in limited action. In my view, those are all big spots. As for batting average with guys on base, I don't see how that can be a bad stat. Yes, I'd rather have someone get a hit with a guy(s) on than lead off an inning with a walk/single. I know that it's trendy to bash RBI these days as a team stat, but scoring runs is the bottom line. As far as I'm concerned, runs scored and RBI are right up there as some of the most important stats. You don't drive in as many runs if you don't get the job done with guys in scoring position, and I don't think that hitting with RISP is a luck thing either. Some guys press with runners on, get distracted by the base runners, etc. while some guys seem to thrive on it. Despite what the stats from the past few years say, Kotsay is thriving on it this year. I say ride it out.

[Thurston Fluff]

The best way to increase the likelihood of clutch hits is to have good hitters for clutch situations.

 

Those guys are starters. To believe there is this supply of good hitters that are wiling to sit on the bench and wait for their moment is what seems far fetched. Teams have a hard time finding starters that are average let alone bench players. Look at the lack of talent league wide at third and short for example. I don't know if there are many players at all that would rather be bench players on even a good team if they have a chance to play regularly. Even if it's on a bad team. That leaves precious few who can even put together a professional ab let alone be good overall hitters.

[TheCrew]

To some, it doesn't matter what a player does for the Brewers this season, it's more important what he did over the past 4 seasons and what advanced statistics suggest he may do in the future.

 

Advanced statistics have their place, but some people put WAY too much value in them and use some pretty crazy logic in trying to defend them. Have to chuckle though as I remember a thread before the start of last season with a number of the advanced stat gurus praising Jack Z for the team he was putting together up in Seattle.......... saying he was the new Beane, etc. - well, Seattle went on to suck.

 

Yuni B has been one of the best SS in all of baseball recently - roughly a 2 month stretch - should he be benched because he's sucked in the past? At some point you have to focus on what a player is doing today, not what he has done in the past - otherwise your never going to find the diamond in the rough and your always going to hold em when you should have folded.