Chance of catching Philly?

[GreatEgret]

At the AS break, if you asked me if the
Brewers were going to win the way they have, I'd say no way. I'm
going on record saying that catching the Phils is possible. Here's
why:

The Brewers have 15 games at home and
13 on the road. The only teams above .500 the brewers will face will
be 13 games total. Six games will be played with the Cards, four
with the Phils, and three with the Red (who are barely above .500). Seven of these thirteen games will be at Miller park. Cubs, Pirates, Marlins, and the Rockies round out the rest of the
schedule. If the Brewers win 19 of their last 27 games, they will
win 100 games.

The Phils have 13 games each on the
road and at home. 14 of those games will be with teams with records
above .500. 10 games with two really hot teams in the Brewers (4)
and the Braves (6). The Cards won't be laying down with the fours
games they play. The phils also have two double headers and finish
the season with a series against the Braves.

The schedule favors the Brewers, but
they will have to play like they've been playing.

At the very least, if it's close, the
Phils will have a challenge to set their rotation for the playoffs while trying to beat the Braves the last three.

It will be a very fun last 27 games for
the Brewers.

[1992casey]

The Phils have 13 games each on the road and at home.

 

I'm counting 13 at home and 20 on the road. You might be looking at a schedule that doesn't include their make-up games.

 

Here's a schedule:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...hi/philadelphia-phillies

 

Welcome to the board. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

I think the last two weeks of the regular season are going to be very boring.

[razzzorsharp]

I think the last two weeks of the regular season are going to be very boring.

I hope.

[GreatEgret]

Six against the Cardinals (LaRussa never makes it boring) and four against the Phillies at Miller Park with a chance to win 100 games? I'm going to enjoy these games.

 

Thanks for the welcome Casey!

[fondybrewfan]

I have my best tickets of the year for the last Sunday game against the Marlins.

 

I am afraid that the lineup for that game is just going to be painful.

 

Thankfully for the Phils they will be able to bring up some additional bullpen help in Sep; otherwise they might be fried by the time October gets here.

 

Catching the Phils is still extremely unlikely; I think the goal should be to break the all time Brewers win record.

[pebadger]

This graph depicts the seasons of the Brewers, Cards, Reds, Pirates and Phils with the x-axis being games played over time and the y-axis shwoing wins/losses. I think it pretty decscribes pretty well in a visual form how long the Phils have been playing consistently well and just how extraordinary this explosion has been by the Brewers. For purposes of this thread, it also shows just how unlikely it would be to catch the Phils. The Brewers would have to continue their own torrid pace and the Phils would have to have a completely uncharacteristic breakdown.

http://images.yuku.com/image/png/279358d39bba811546646ba1f9c2c478427c51f.png

[Cracked Bat Collector]

Do we cheer for Philly or Cincy in this series. Cincy winning gets us closer to Philly but Cincy is in our division and only 2 gb of STL?

[MkeSouthSide]

Do we cheer for Philly or Cincy in this series. Cincy winning gets us closer to Philly but Cincy is in our division and only 2 gb of STL?

Definitely Cincy. The chances are so slim that the Reds come back to make the division. And it seems home field would be a huge advantage for the Crew in the playoffs. Of course the chances are very slim we can can the Phils, but there's still a shot.

[GreatEgret]

With the Brewers record since the AS break, ask yourself this: Can they win 19 game of the 27 remaining? If the answer is yes, catching the the Phis is in reach. It is really tough to win 100 games in the MLB. Even if the Brewers spit the six games against the Cardinals and the four against the Phillies, they can still win 19 of 27. The schedule is in the Brewers favor on all counts.

 

I'll be rooting against the Phillies in every series. Actually, I'm more afraid of the Braves than the Phillies in the playoffs. Teams that get hot near the end of the season usually do well in the playoffs.

[pogokat]

i want the phillies to keep the best record...i want the brewers to play the braves for strictly selfish reasons, namely so i can go watch a playoff game in atlanta in a brewers shirt

[fondybrewfan]

One other thing to consider.

 

If we do happen to catch Philly because they start losing a bit there is a decent chance that ATL could catch them as well. If ATL catches them then PHI is in the wild card spot.

 

I would much rather host ATL in the 1st round than I would PHI. So if we catch PHI , ATL better lose as well.

[brewtown82]

Because of the "you can't play your division in the first round" rule, the Brewers would either play the Braves or the NL West champ, depending if they get the #1 seed. Even if the Brewers catch the Phillies, I don't think the Braves have enough to take the division away from them.

[brewtown82]

The way I see it, the Brewers have played 7 more road games than the Phillies so far and are within 5 games of them. Considering how bad the Brewers were on the road early and how decent they are now, I think this favors Milwaukee heavily. Plus, because the Phillies have to make up a whopping 6 games on us in games played at this point, their pitching may be fatigued going in to the playoffs. I say if the Brewers are good enough to beat the Phillies in the regular season, why worry about facing them in the playoffs?

[bork]

It seems so strange to be discussing postseason matchups and home field advantage. I'm so used to just traying to make the playoffs, or just trying to get to .500, or just trying to avoid 90 losses.

[whizkid]

Staying ahead of AZ will keep my interest up and hopefully the Brewers too even after the division is clinched. Only 5.5 up on AZ now. Unlikey SF could catch the Brewers even if they catch AZ. Really don't want to face Philly in the first round.

[topper09er]

AZ literally plays their own division for the rest of the season except for 1 3 game series against the Pirates, and their division is not very good. More than anything we should pay attention to them and cheer for them to lose so we get home-field in the NLDS.

[FVBrewerFan]

There is a slim chance the Brewers catch the Phils, but it's the only goal left. So I'll be scoreboard watching until it becomes obvious the Phils can't be caught. Why? There was a slim chance the Brewers could play at thislevel for so long. Slim chance they could buils a 10 1/2 game lead so quickly. So making up 5 games on the Phils suddenly seems possible. Especially when they play them 4 times at home, and the Phils have to play a ton of games with no off days, DHS mixed in, and many games on the road. That will hold my interest for the rest of the regular season. Well, that and observing what antics LaRusa still has up his sleeve. Something just tells me a major brawl is coming at some point.

[letsgored2003]

How amazing is it that there is a Phillies / Reds game tonight, August 29, and we all will be rooting for the Reds?

[paul253]

Without looking at the schedule, I'd guess Philly has quite a few doubleheaders left. This 4 game series in Milwaukee is going to be something else. If the Brewers can win 3 of 4 you never know. It could happen.

[GreatEgret]

How amazing is it that there is a Phillies / Reds game tonight, August 29, and we all will be rooting for the Reds?

+1 Amazing and surprising, isn't it?

[pebadger]

Here are the magic numbers for all the meaningful standings goals:

 

To clinch a better record than the Phillies and likely home-field throughout: 36

To clinch a better record than Atlanta: 28

 

To clinch a better record than the DBacks and a first-round bye: 23

To clinch a better record than the Giants: 19

 

To clinch a better reocrd than the Cards: 18

To clinch a better record than the Reds: 16

 

The Brewers will not control their own destiny with regard to the Phillies until, within a given span of games, the Brewers win 9 and the Phils lose 9 with all other games being equal in that saame given span.

[whizkid]

First round bye?

 

I think it's clearer to give the Phillies' magic number to clinch best record since they're in front: 26

[pebadger]

Yeah, that should be first-round home-field.

 

Football is here already and so is the language.

[UeckerAddict]

Yeah, when it comes to us and the Phils, it's an elimination number, not so much a magic number.