Logan's run...

[igor67]

to AAA. First off I'm petitioning to officially change Logan's middle name to 'Gamer' so he can fit in with the other killer G's. I'm open to other G suggestions.

Second how do we rate him in at this point? Green, Gindl, and Gamel frankly all have doe enough with the bat for long enough that they have fairly established narratives and profiles. Green is the return from injury guy, Gamel is the Ken Phelps All-star dejour, and Gindl is the guy you think can't make it who just keeps hitting.

Logan on the other hand I really didn't have back on my radar as his AA numbers at first glance weren't all that exciting. Well now he's up over 100 PAs at AAA with no evidence that his hot streak is over. I wonder if AA is really hurting the power numbers this year? Logan's clearly shown he can hit for average, make pretty good contact, and keep a solid BB rate. Is his defense still as good as earlier in his career?

 

Clearly there's not a huge immediate need for him next year, but it kind of matters whether he's destined to be another potentially acceptable CFer (which is certainly valuable) or if he can push that to an all around .850 OPS guy with defense?

[DHonks]

given that all of our prospects are tearing the cover off the ball in AAA, along with several journeymen, I have to wonder if it's genuine or if it's a creation of the PCL

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Schafer is the reason the Brewers were willing to move Komatsu for Hairston. Imo Schafer is going to be the 4th OF in Milwaukee for the next few seasons.

[igor67]

Is that his ceiling? I've been pretty happy with T-plush and Gomez in his role. However Morgan's hitting his really been driven by a much higher batting average than the rest of his career, so when combined with the lack of walks he is unfortunately a guy I can see the helium coming out of next year.

[logan82]

This is the lowest BB rate of Morgan's career. I would expect him to continue hitting as well as he has this year over the next few years, especially if he is platooned which he should be with Gomez also on the roster.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is that his ceiling?

 

His ceiling (imo) is probably a upper-.700s to low-.800s OPS hitter with solid (but not great) defense in CF. Here's part of Toby's profile of Schafer for Disciples of Uecker:

Is Schafer capable of being the Brewers’ full time center fielder? He’s a bit on the old side for a prospect – he turns 25 next month – but playing well in AAA as a 24 year old (and older) has led to MLB success for many players. The production is there, even if his walk rate (1 BB for every 11.6 PA this year) isn’t ideal.

 

Walks will have to become part of Schafer’s game with the Brewers because he lacks anything more than gap power and does not possess premium bat speed. Schafer knows that his game has to be to get on base and hit line drives. Some scouts have doubts that he’ll become a big league regular because of the lack of power coupled with his average eye at the plate. He’s regarded as a “gamer” that has to make the most of mostly average skill.

 

He lacks great speed on the basepaths, but is more than a station to station runner. He has a relatively slight frame that the Brewers hope will fill out a bit in the next couple of years. A healthy off-season may aide Schafer in adding some muscle. Schafer is a decent bunter and has the advantage of being able to start his run to first from the left-handed batter’s box.

 

Schafer won’t be a power-alley-to-power-alley center fielder like the Brewers have in Morgan and Gomez because he doesn’t have great speed. He does have good instincts which give him average range. Schafer has an average arm. He is a solid, if not elite, defender in center. He can also man the corner outfield spots well, but his lack of power at the plate probably won’t let him play regularly in left or right.

 

All in all, Logan Schafer provides the Brewers with solid insurance in center field in the immediate future, and I like his chances of getting regular playing time in Milwaukee at some point. He doesn’t have a ton of tools, but he’s a smart baseball player who can play defense and has an idea at the plate.

[homer]

given that all of our prospects are tearing the cover off the ball in AAA, along with several journeymen, I have to wonder if it's genuine or if it's a creation of the PCL

Green and Gamel have pretty decent home and road splits. I think they are legit. Gindl's splits really favor the road so my enthusiasm for him isn't quite as high.

[SoCalBrewfan]

given that all of our prospects are tearing the cover off the ball in AAA, along with several journeymen, I have to wonder if it's genuine or if it's a creation of the PCL

 

That's a wise caution. However, it's worth remembering that the PCL, while a high-offense league, includes two quite different sets of ballparks, and while the design of the parks might be a bit of a factor, it's mostly altitude that gives the split. Nashville and most of the low-altitude teams of the old American Association play as pitcher's parks within the context of the PCL. The old PCL includes pretty extreme hitters' parks like Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs, Tucson, Reno, and Las Vegas. (Tacoma and Portland are western teams but at lower altitude and each plays more like Nashville, Memphis, or New Orleans.) That said, the league as a whole is one of the highest run environments in the minors, and they get those road games at altitude, so even a guy playing in a neutral park by run factor (e.g., Fresno, Oklahoma City, Round Rock) has stats inflated compared to, say, the other AAA league (International League).

 

Usually you'll see a vast difference in hitting and pitching stats based on that split. Right now Las Vegas and Reno have TEAM batting averages of .310; Nashville is .283, and most of the low-altitude teams are in the .270s and .280s. Reno has scored 840 runs, Oklahoma City is at 522 (Nashville is 643). The pitching of course goes the other way; Colorado Springs has a team ERA over 6. Nashville is 4.38, third-best in the league.

 

There's various numbers out there, and the ones I know best come from BTF (the ZiPS guy compiles them); his list includes all the minors so the link below is easier to read, including only the PCL. In the list, 1.20 means that the park inflates offense by 20% relative to the league (which again is already high). Nashville weighs in at 0.95 so cuts offense a bit (5% doesn't sound like a lot but in most leagues a lot of parks are very close to average...the PCL is odd in that the 'average' parks are more uncommon and there are lots of outliers, again due to the geography). Multiply that by the league numbers and you'd get something like 10% higher run environment for a Nashville player than he'd experience in the major leagues. Albuquerque is more like 40%. (!)

 

http://rainierscurto.word.../baseball-for-breakfast/

 

So I'm quite a bit more impressed by the 1000 OPS put up so far by Taylor Green than I am by the slightly higher OPS put up by David Cooper in Las Vegas or Ryan Langerhans in Reno, but there's still a little bit of air to be let out.

 

It used to be that Brewers farm teams in places like El Paso and Denver, later High Desert, gave us skewed numbers for minor league hitters, giving us fake phenoms who always disappointed in the show. Now we're closer to neutral, except for Brevard County which is just about to pitchers what High Desert was to hitters.

[LouisEly]

Schafer has an average arm.

I somewhat question this, as Schafer had 13 assists in his only full season in 2009 (107 games) and has 8 assists this year in 78 games. Maybe not great, but to have that many assists suggests at least above average. I'd be curious to see where that ranks in terms of minor league CFs.

 

I think Schafer is the reason the Brewers were willing to move Komatsu for Hairston.

It's exactly the reason they were willing to move Komatsu. DM said it in an interview after the trade that Komatsu was behind Schafer (and Gindl) on the organizational OF depth chart.

 

When the Brewers brought Schafer with them to their last two spring training games in LA in 2009, and he was the first OF reserve off the bench in those two games, I knew that the Brewers were really high on him. They didn't send him to minor league camp until after the last spring training game.

[And That]

Schafer has an average arm.

I somewhat question this, as Schafer had 13 assists in his only full season in 2009 (107 games) and has 8 assists this year in 78 games. Maybe not great, but to have that many assists suggests at least above average.

That many assists doesn't suggest anything. Players get lots of outfield assists for two very different reasons:

1. Their arm isn't that good, and guys run on them all the time to test it. It's why Carlos Lee is regularly among league leaders in OF assists. Nyjer Morgan had 13 a few years ago.
2. Their arm is exceptional, and guys keep getting cutdown being overzealous on the basepaths. Aka, Jeff Francoeur.

Schafer is closer to Morgan than Francoeur.

[CheezWizHed]

Well, at least its accurate then. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif