What happened to Yuniesky Betancourt?

[Baldkin]

His last 19 games, since he's raised his BA from .238 to .268.

BA OBP SLG OPS

.397 .416 .589 1.005

 

BABIP: .419

 

There is absolutely a 0% chance he keeps this up. If we regress to his career babip of .284.... his BA drops to .269. OBP of .286.

[brettac1]

Yeah, basically enjoy it while it lasts, which won't be much longer.

[fondybrewfan]

I am just going to assume that every player who has ever had an extended hot streak has had a higher than normal BABIP. No one is expecting the guy to hit .400 the rest of the year. Even if he were able to hit .280 the rest of the way with decent power numbers I will be content. Yuni hasn't made many awful defensive plays this year; he has been pretty good converting "Outs into Outs" like Rock likes to say; of course the problem is turning non-routine grounders into outs which is something he can't really do.

 

It amazing that there is now a 7 page thread started by someone praising a guy for going on a good hot streak which has morphed into "He still sucks". Just ride the momentum; when he crashes he crashes; but I am riding the Yuni train right now.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It amazing that there is now a 7 page thread started by someone praising a guy for going on a good hot streak which has morphed into "He still sucks". Just ride the momentum; when he crashes he crashes; but I am riding the Yuni train right now.

But that's just it. the thread title is 'what happened'? A bad player got on a hot streak, which all bad players do from time to time. A guy with a .670 OPS doesn't have a .670 OPS every day or every month. He's going to have ups and downs. Way too much is put into 75 plate appearance samples when someone's struggling or when someone's hot, and I readily admit that I'm just as guilty of that as many.

 

I started a 'road wooahs' thread, asking when crappy road play stopped being bad luck, and the Brewers are 8-6 on the road after the all star break. Deviation happens. Nothing has happened (IMO) that suddenly Yuni's a good hitter. He's a crappy hitter going through a hot streak.

[Oldcity]

A lot of people who are backing Betancourt were panicking about Greinke. Should we be bumping up that thread to say I told you so because he's had a good stretch?

[Ennder]

As an example, here is one post that says "Betancourt very well may be the worst full time player in major league baseball." http://forum.brewerfan.net/search.php?keywords=685058/How-many-of-you-are-willing-to-give-Betancourt-a-shot#reply-685058

 

He probably is the worst full time SS in baseball over the past 4 years or so, that is a very different sentence than saying he is the worst SS in baseball though. That full time means a lot especially when you are talking multiple seasons.

 

Betancourt should be a platoon player at best or he should at least be moved to 2B to hide his defense some. His offense won't play anywhere else but SS or 2B at all.

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

Ugh... with Daniel Murphy going down I just had to pick Yuni up for my fantasy league... (yes, my middle infield situation is abysmal)

[rluzinski]

I think it's somewhat important to note that Hairston has only played in 145 games in his career at SS, and his total innings there equal about 114 games. He's a 35 year old whose career high games started at SS was last year with 53 games. I do think that he should be getting time at SS, but I don't think he should be expected to be decent defensively over a large number of games. As a point of comparison, Hairston has a -8/150 UZR at 3B in 767 innings played.

Let's look at how he's done at the 3 infield positions:

SS: 2.3 UZR/150; 114 full games

3B: -8 UZR/150; 85 full games

2B: 6.2 UZR/150; 546 full games (over 3 seasons worth, decent sample)

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=144&position=2B/OF

The average difference between a SS and 2B is around 5 runs, so Hairston's 6.2 UZR/150 at 2B suggests he might be around average at SS. Still, he's old (as you pointed out) and has had a long career (so some of this data is older), so let's not get carried away. I think that is fair to project him as a little below average at shortstop defensively but I suspect he would still be a sizable improvement over Betancourt's D. Couple that with him possible being a marginal upgrade offensively as well and it seems almost a no-brainer to give him at least SOME starts at shortstop.

[kramnoj]

He probably is the worst full time SS in baseball over the past 4 years or so, that is a very different sentence than saying he is the worst SS in baseball though. That full time means a lot especially when you are talking multiple seasons.

 

The issue here is that using the adjective worst is useless. It doesn't provide any value or meaningful distinction. By continuing to use this word, it distorts the understanding of where Betancout fits with his peers. It might lead someone to assume that he is below replacement level, without actually bothering to look it up.

[DuWayne Steurer]

He probably is the worst full time SS in baseball over the past 4 years or so, that is a very different sentence than saying he is the worst SS in baseball though. That full time means a lot especially when you are talking multiple seasons.

 

The issue here is that using the adjective worst is useless. It doesn't provide any value or meaningful distinction. By continuing to use this word, it distorts the understanding of where Betancout fits with his peers. It might lead someone to assume that he is below replacement level, without actually bothering to look it up.

He was below replacement level 2 of the past 4 years. And he was less than 2 WAR (starting player level) the other 2 years.

[fondybrewfan]

A lot of people who are backing Betancourt were panicking about Greinke. Should we be bumping up that thread to say I told you so because he's had a good stretch?

I admit I panicked about Grienke; whats your point? Its not even close to the same situation. I am not really backing Yuni; I don't expect this hot streak to continue all year, I know he sucks at defense, and in no way do I want the guy back next year. I just find it ridiculous that people are ripping on him so much in the middle of an extended hot streak. No matter what the guy does, certain posters just go out of their way to hate on the guy any chance they get.

[DougJones43]

I just find it ridiculous that people are ripping on him so much in the middle of an extended hot streak. No matter what the guy does, certain posters just go out of their way to hate on the guy any chance they get.

You have to keep in mind that recently, most of these comments have been a response to all of the "eat crow" and "told you so" stuff that's occurred due to Yuni's hot streak.

[kramnoj]

He was below replacement level 2 of the past 4 years. And he was less than 2 WAR (starting player level) the other 2 years.

 

Where do you see that he was below replacement level for 2 of the past 4 years? Neither WAR on B-ref or fangraphs has that. You might be seeing that he was below replacement level with two teams in 2009. That actually supports my claim. There is such an air of despair created here that it can lead someone to assume the worst about him without closely looking at the facts.

[JJHardy7]

I was also going to say that I am amazed that people are puffing out their chests over the play of Yuniesky Betancourt, but we can't be the first fanbase to have seen that.

 

I can't say this for everyone, but I'm not puffing out my chest. It is nice to see Yuni contribute in a good way for however long it lasts. It's nice to see it to be honest. It doesn't change what he is, but during the stretch w/o Weeks so far Yuni picked the best time to go on a hot streak. I don't think that can be said enough. We lost Weeks and we're still rolling. Hopefully he can keep it going to a certain extent/Weeks comes back soon.

 

I don't see any way Yuni is back with the Brewers. He'd have to play multiple IF positions and who knows what that would look like. He'd also have to take a paycut.

[rluzinski]

Ugh... with Daniel Murphy going down I just had to pick Yuni up for my fantasy league... (yes, my middle infield situation is abysmal)

Fantasy baseball doesn't care about defense and many don't even give you points for a walk. Yuni starts almost every day and has a little pop, so I wouldn't think he's that bad of a guy to start, is he?

[Ennder]

You generally want to stay away from guys who bat as low in the order as he does. Though SS is pretty shallow in quality so I'm sure Yuni is a fine option in many fantasy leagues.

[DuWayne Steurer]

He was below replacement level 2 of the past 4 years. And he was less than 2 WAR (starting player level) the other 2 years.

 

Where do you see that he was below replacement level for 2 of the past 4 years? Neither WAR on B-ref or fangraphs has that. You might be seeing that he was below replacement level with two teams in 2009. That actually supports my claim. There is such an air of despair created here that it can lead someone to assume the worst about him without closely looking at the facts.

He's at 0 WAR this year.

1.3 WAR in 2010

a staggering -1.8 WAR in 2009

a 0.2 WAR in 2008

 

You go back to 2007, and he was a 2.2 WAR player. So you have to go back 5 seasons to find when he was an adequate player fit for every day use.

[MadScientist]

What are the options for next year? Are there any free agents worth getting, as I don't think there are good options in the minors right now.

[kramnoj]

So you have to go back 5 seasons to find when he was an adequate player fit for every day use.

 

I'm saying that there shouldn't be an assumption that he's below replacement level. He's been that for one year in his career. He was genuinely awful that year, no question.

 

I personally feel that if one year is such an aberration for a player's career, a standard Marcel projection might not be as useful. There were people here who didn't want want Ray Durham as a Brewer because of his awful year the year before. I felt that the bulk of his career and his season to date performance was more relevant than the outlier year.

 

I feel the same way about Betancourt. For his career, he's been around replacement level. Certainly a player you would like to replace given the option.

[kramnoj]

Here are the free agents for next year, but a moderator might feel this belongs in the rumors section

 

Clint Barmes (33)

Yuniesky Betancourt (30) - $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Orlando Cabrera (37)

Jamey Carroll (37)

Ronny Cedeno (29) - $3MM club option with a $200K buyout

Craig Counsell (41)

Rafael Furcal (34) - $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout

Alex Gonzalez (34)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)

Omar Infante (30)

Cesar Izturis (32)

Julio Lugo (36)

John McDonald (37)

Augie Ojeda (37)

Nick Punto (34)

Edgar Renteria (35)

Jose Reyes (29)

Jimmy Rollins (33)

Ramon Santiago (32)

Marco Scutaro (36) - $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout

Miguel Tejada (38)

Jack Wilson (34)

 

I know some were hoping that we could acquire Barmes, and he looks like a decent target to me.

[DuWayne Steurer]

So you have to go back 5 seasons to find when he was an adequate player fit for every day use.

 

I'm saying that there shouldn't be an assumption that he's below replacement level. He's been that for one year in his career. He was genuinely awful that year, no question.

 

I personally feel that if one year is such an aberration for a player's career, a standard Marcel projection might not be as useful. There were people here who didn't want want Ray Durham as a Brewer because of his awful year the year before. I felt that the bulk of his career and his season to date performance was more relevant than the outlier year.

 

I feel the same way about Betancourt. For his career, he's been around replacement level. Certainly a player you would like to replace given the option.

Ray Durham was a freqeunt 3 to 4 WAR player for a long stretch of his career. Betancourt has never been above 2.2. I'm sorry, but that's a terrible comparison.

 

Seasons in which Betancourt was a 0 WAR and 0.2 WAR are hardly glowing endorsements for not being 'below replacement'. Seasons of being basically a replacement level player doesn't make the -1.8 an aberration, that was a terrible season in the middle of a bunch of bad seasons.

[kramnoj]

Ray Durham was a freqeunt 3 to 4 WAR player for a long stretch of his career. Betancourt has never been above 2.2. I'm sorry, but that's a terrible comparison.

 

I'm not comparing the players themselves. I'm comparing aberrant seasons.

 

Seasons in which Betancourt was a 0 WAR and 0.2 WAR are hardly glowing endorsements for not being 'below replacement'.

 

Well, I don't know how many people are endorsing Betancourt. I'm endorsing accuracy. It's something that can be sometimes lacking.

 

Seasons of being basically a replacement level player doesn't make the -1.8 an aberration, that was a terrible season in the middle of a bunch of bad seasons.

 

I'm really wondering if this is an argument that you would make about another player. You are saying that a 2 Win difference between his worst season and his second worst season isn't an aberration? What is the level of difference that would require you to accept that definition?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm really wondering if this is an argument that you would make about another player. You are saying that a 2 Win difference between his worst season and his second worst season isn't an aberration? What is the level of difference that would require you to accept that definition?

If a 5 WAR player suddenly has a 7 WAR season, I wouldn't call that an aberration. A great player had a fantastic season. When a bad player (0 WAR) has a terrible season, again, I don't see that as an aberration. I see it as a bad player having a really bad year.

 

If Yuni was a guy who was even a 2-3 WAR guy more than once? Then yeah, that -1.8 would really stick out. But since he's shown for most of his career to be a subpar player, no, that really bad season doesn't stick out to me. It all depends on context.

[Thurston Fluff]

Ray Durham was a freqeunt 3 to 4 WAR player for a long stretch of his career. Betancourt has never been above 2.2. I'm sorry, but that's a terrible comparison.

 

As is using WAR to decide how good a player is.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, I'm out, we've got 2 Betancourt threads where we're arguing whether he's just REALLY bad, or REALLY REALLY bad.

 

No matter what, the stat guys and the "He doesn't look THAT bad" guys are not going to agree.

 

It also seems to me that the "he's not THAT bad crowd" are usually (but not always) the same types of guys (and gals) that will root for a guy who's wearing a uniform that says "Brewers" on it, no matter what.

 

I'm not that way. Everyone can be a fan in whatever way they choose, but facts are facts, and I can't find ANY facts that support arguments that Betancourt isn't one of the worst starting players in the league.

 

Again, this argument is circular, and going nowhere. I'll bow out. I've said everything I've needed to say, and presenting more stats isn't going to sway anyone anyways. There's a mountain of data that's out there, and if at this point, people want to ignore it, that's their prerogative.