What happened to Yuniesky Betancourt?

[Funketown]

If Yuni has changed his approach and become a much better hitter, that's awesome for him. It's just really difficult for me to accept that conclusion after only ~100 PA's.

 

Look, here's what Yuni has done this season with the bat: .268/.286/.391 (wRC+ 80). Here's what Yuni has done over the past 3.5 seasons as a defender: UZR of -49.1, DRS of -65, FSR of -50 from 2009-2010.

 

Edit: Over that time period, the net lowest UZR among qualified SS is -17.7. The next lowest FSR is -19. The next lowest DRS is -32. He is far and away the worst defensive starting SS in the game.

[mkm13]

I agree Yuni is bad defensively, but can you provide some data that has a better year to year correlation than 0.5 (about half of OPS..despite the fact defense should be more consistent)? What does FieldFX have to say?

 

Conisdering you are using 3 significant figures to describe Yuni's terribleness, I have a feeling you think they are much more accurate than they really are.

[scrapiron]

No, he doesnt, he is a horrible hitter, currently he has an 80 wRC+, which is WORST in all MLB for qualifying SS

No he doesn't. According to the link you provided 3 SS have a worse wRC+, Alcides Escobar, A Gonzalex and Ian Desmond.

I

[logan82]

This team is set up to make a serious run at the World Series as their roster stands right now. Yuni and Casey do hurt them that is for sure, but they have the enough bats and enough pitching to make a serious run.

 

I think most would agree with this. The problem is that there are some changes that can be made to improve our chances. If the odds of getting to the World Series are 50% I want Melvin to be making moves to improve those odds to 51% if he can.

 

It's hard to go game by game and say "Well if there had been an average SS playing, the opponent would not have had those two singles which led to two more runs."

 

When Yuni only misses a ball by a step or two I think it is a safe assumption that an average SS would have made the play.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I almost think some of this is a misconception of statistics, the gambler's fallacy. If a .300 hitter goes 0 for 7, that doesn't mean that statistics predicts that he will be 3 for his next 3 to get back to .300. If the true ability level of the player (and that's a sticky part) is that he's a .300 hitter, then our best guess would be 1 hit (actually .9) in the next 3 AB. The part of the season that's already happened is in the books and can't be changed without a Delorean; the deep question is whether we use that first-half record to revise our estimation of the true talent level or not.

 

At the same time, there's a tendency to over-emphasize the most recent data points. That makes you think the guy is done in May and then, at the same time, that he's a resurgent star in August.

 

If your'e projecting in a statistical sense, you try to avoid those fallacies and biases to make a best guess. For Betancourt, his established performance level was already pretty grim, and that remains part of the record that you must consider. Then, after the first half of the season, when he was even worse than that, there is a question of how to project his second half performance. Four caricatured answers:

 

1. He's due...he was so bad in the first half that he's certain to have an MVP-like second half, just to get back to his career norms. (the gambler's fallacy)

2. His first half shows that he's done at 29. To heck with his career norms...the guy's just lost it completely and we should dump him. (the recency effect)

3. The best guess for his second half is to use a projection based on his career norms, as though the first half never happened, or with a small adjustment to reflect recent performance / aging / whatever.

4. I've taken a look at the details and he has a new stance / tends to hit better in the second half / gets motivated by a contract year / got Lasix / hurt his wrist so his established talent level needs to be adjusted in a way that statistics doesn't really predict.

 

A lot of baseball journalism is a mix of 4 and 1, or maybe 2. If these were coin flips and not human beings, both 1 and 2 would be terribly flawed, but it might be that scouting lends support to the notion that a guy has lost bat speed or has vision problems or something. A caricatured stat zealot might instead tend to 3, with a careful adjustment of estimated true talent level to account for the most recent data. (When Russ posts the rest-of-season ZiPS this is what they reflect I believe.) A lot of 4 tends to be after the fact justification that is hard to use to project future outcomes, but sometimes those are real effects there...a guy learns a new pitch or changes his approach at the plate or has his injured wrist finally heal. It's hard to predict sudden changes in ability, and many if not most perceived changes can be accounted for by random variation. Flipped coins will come up heads several times in a row, just by chance...it doesn't necessarily mean anything. That said, it might be that for some reason Yuni really is a second half hitter...I hadn't noticed that trend and it could well be real.

 

If you go by #3, the hot streak is a short-term phenomenon, and I think you'd still be dissatisfied with Yuni going forward, suggesting that Hairston should play some short down the stretch. What Russ was asking is whether there's any evidence for #4, that he's really a different hitter than he used to be.

[Thurston Fluff]

No, he doesnt, he is a horrible hitter, currently he has an 80 wRC+, which is WORST in all MLB for qualifying SS

 

But he's still a better option than Counsell which is who you suggested would help us beat Philly more than Yuni would. I suppose it is possible having no chance to hit against Halliday or Lee for better defense is better than a little chance to hit against them. Then again it is possible that defense upgrade will not be needed even once. It doesn't really matter. Counsell or Yuni will not be the reason we win or lose. Our good players have to be better than their good players.

 

As far as it being very smart to trot out an all defense team against a good pitcher just don't agree. I think this season so many of us are so focused on our weak defense we seem to forget it hasn't hurt us from being in first place three games up. There is a reason poor fielding hitters find jobs in the majors when the minors are littered with good fielding guys who can't hit. It isn't a 50/50 deal. Offense is necessary defense is nice.

[topper09er]

But he's still a better option than Counsell which is who you suggested would help us beat Philly more than Yuni would

I have no doubt Counsell is a better option against Roy Halladay

 

Counsell or Yuni will not be the reason we win or lose.

Completely false, a 5 game playoff is such a small sample even 1 game makes or breaks you. Its a team game. There have been several games this season when our stars have hit Hrs but Yuni's defense has cost the team the game. Yuni turning a routine DP into a reached on error can easily cause the Brewers to go from winning the series to losing it. If in game 1 in 2008 Mike Cameron catches a ball that hit his glove we would have forced a game 5 with Sabathia on the mound.

 

As far as it being very smart to trot out an all defense team against a good pitcher just don't agree.

I only mean if the offense is even then go with the better defender, I believe vs Roy Halladay Counsell's offense = Yuni's offense.

 

I think this season so many of us are so focused on our weak defense we seem to forget it hasn't hurt us from being in first place three games up.

But it has hurt us from being 5 or 7 or 9 games up which may end up costing us the playoffs or home-field advantage in the 1st or even 2nd round of the playoffs.

There is a reason poor fielding hitters find jobs in the majors when the minors are littered with good fielding guys who can't hit.

 

And they play 1B/LF/RF/DH

 

Offense is necessary defense is nice.

Ozzie Smith would like to disagree, actaully the only thing that is necesary is overall positive value.

[Funketown]

I agree Yuni is bad defensively, but can you provide some data that has a better year to year correlation than 0.5 (about half of OPS..despite the fact defense should be more consistent)? What does FieldFX have to say?

 

Conisdering you are using 3 significant figures to describe Yuni's terribleness, I have a feeling you think they are much more accurate than they really are.

FieldFX is not publicly available.

 

I am using 3 figures to describe Yuni's terribleness because they aren't that accurate. The fact that all three of these say he is horrendously awful is pretty telling.

[rluzinski]

"The implication has pretty much been that YB would not be better than the .220 hitter he was early in the year."

 

That is not the implication, at not by anyone who understands statistics He was a .272 career batter through 2010. A bad half season is not going to change his projected BA by nearly that much. So unless you are lumping in anyone who knows how to look up a batting line in with the "stats oriented" group, I don't agree with you. As for your UZR comment, I took that as an attempt to suggest that Yuni may not be as bad defensively as some claim. If it had to do more with Counsell, fair enough. But AGAIN, people who are truly "stats oriented" should look at Counsell's PROJECTED offense and defense, not a small sample of his stats from this year.

 

I may have missed a few posts because I don't really understand what we are arguing about anymore. I don't think anyone is arguing that Betancourt is good or even average, are they? So we are arguing whether he is just bad or terrible? It seems like the ones who are arguing that he is merely bad are questioning the notion that Melvin could have realistically upgrading the position. On the other hand, the people who think he is terrible think there is no question Melvin could have found an upgrade, as Betancourt set the bar so low. If that is correct, everything else just seems someone irrelevant.

[RockCoCougars]

My argument is that Betancourt is better than Escobar at this point in time. Can one of the stats guys explain how Escobar has a positive offensive WAR when he's been nearly worse than he was last season and his statistics are clearly worse than Betancourt's?

[logan82]

There are a few parallels with this streak and Gomez in Spring Training. Hitting well and still no walks. Change in approach, or is it?

[mothershipconnection]

This is "Franklin v Kinney" and "should we keep Ginter?" all over again. Hair-splitting is not merited with Betancourt, as it's pretty obvious after 917 games what he is - a crappy fielder with poor plate discipline who occasionally shows good power for his position and has one month of an .800 or better OPS every season (and is .786 in 630 career AB's in August).

 

It seems like the ones who are arguing that he is merely bad are questioning the notion that Melvin could have realistically upgrading the position. On the other hand, the people who think he is terrible think there is no question Melvin could have found an upgrade, as Betancourt set the bar so low. If that is correct, everything else just seems someone irrelevant.

 

This seems to be the gist of it.

[mkm13]

FieldFX is not publicly available.

 

I am using 3 figures to describe Yuni's terribleness because they aren't that accurate. The fact that all three of these say he is horrendously awful is pretty telling.

I know it is not publicly available. Just pointing out that a baseball team that spends hundereds of millions of dollars just might have access to that or other defensive metrics that are not free and available to everyone. Now, I agree that Yuni is bad defensively for a SS, but I have a hard time buying into the ones you are using to make such definite claims considering the year-to-year correlation is only 0.5 and about half of OPS.

 

[umphrey]

There are a few parallels with this streak and Gomez in Spring Training. Hitting well and still no walks. Change in approach, or is it?

I don't see any parallels between exhibition games and inter divisional playoff stretch baseball

[The Truth]

My argument is that Betancourt is better than Escobar at this point in time. Can one of the stats guys explain how Escobar has a positive offensive WAR when he's been nearly worse than he was last season and his statistics are clearly worse than Betancourt's?

I'd also be interested in finding out how Escobar's offensive WAR is better than Betancourt's. One guess might be the speed that Escobar brings to the table with stolen bases etc. Escobar has 15 stolen bases as compared to Betancourt's 4. Escobar has 5 triples as compared to Betancourt's 2. With that said, Escobar has a .610 OPS compared to Betancourt's .677. They both have poor OBP (.283 and .286). Is WAR based on League? i.e. is Escobar only compared to other AL SS's, or all of MLB?

 

Not sure how Escobar's offensive WAR is 0.9 but Betancourt's is 0.4 ... I do get why Escobar has a 1.0 defensive WAR (honestly I thought it'd be higher) and Betancourt's is -0.4 (honestly I thought it'd be worse

 

Because of Escobar's superior defense, I get why his overall WAR is higher than Yuni B's.

[Funketown]

Now, I agree that Yuni is bad defensively for a SS, but I have a hard time buying into the ones you are using to make such definite claims considering the year-to-year correlation is only 0.5 and about half of OPS.

I don't think they are the be all end all either, but the fact that the fans, UZR, and DRS all say he is far and away worse than any other starting SS in baseball has to mean something. Using three statistics probably does take some of the noise out of these statistics. You continue to bring up the year to year correlation as a reason not to use these statistics or to question their validity. That's why people generally don't (or shouldn't) use them on a year-by-year basis. Over three or four years, these statistics are much more accurate, and over three or four years, these statistics have said Yuni is awful at defense. They're obviously imperfect and probably nowhere near as good as FieldFX, but when all of them say Yuni has been that bad I think it's pretty telling.

 

Like Rluz said, I think this is pretty much us just rehashing the same "Yuni is terrible" vs. "Yuni is bad" conversation.

 

If some day FieldFX is made available, we'll be able to settle this whole Yuni debate with more precision.

[logan82]

I don't see any parallels between exhibition games and inter divisional playoff stretch baseball

 

Between the actual games no but how the results are being interpreted yes.

[endaround]

Where are people getting Escobar's offense being better? Betancourt is at -7.6 and Escobar is at -16.2 before positional adjustments. Escobar comes in at about 2 wins better defensively.

[mkm13]

No, I am not saying not to use the statistics. Have never said that. I am saying don't use them to make such definite and extreme statements. I guess I don't understand how a defensive stat can have a year to year correlation so low..when in my opinion defense is more consitent than offense. Everyone knows how streaky offense is...it raises a big red flag to me when a defensive statistic has half the correlation of OPS.

 

Again, I agree Yuni is bad defensively. I just don't believe the defensive metrics people use allow one to make claims like he is easily the worst defender in the league, etc.

[KCBrewerfan34]

It's great to see the "experts' on the board eating some crow http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Go Yuni go!!!!

[DuWayne Steurer]

Again, I agree Yuni is bad defensively. I just don't believe the defensive metrics people use allow one to make claims like he is easily the worst defender in the league, etc.

But when EVERY statistical measure says he is the worst defensive SS, along with the scouts and the fans, how much more do we need?

 

I haven't seen a single statistic, not one, that indicates he's anything other than a complete butcher. I grant that defensive stats are somewhat sketchy, but when EVERY method used tells us the same thing, we have to accept that there's something there, don't we?

[DougJones43]

It's great to see the "experts' on the board eating some crow http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Go Yuni go!!!!

I haven't really seen anybody eating crow. It seems to me that people have maintained their positions.

 

The anti-Yuni crowd's mind isn't going to be changed because of one good month. They're still looking at his larger body of work, and projections moving forward (as they have been the entire time).

 

It seems the pro-Yuni crowd feels they've finally been legitimized by his hot streak, even though his overall numbers are still bad for the season and they willingly admit he's a bad (but not terrible!) defender.

[DougJones43]

Again, I agree Yuni is bad defensively. I just don't believe the defensive metrics people use allow one to make claims like he is easily the worst defender in the league, etc.

I don't quite understand what your ultimate goal is with this argument. Let's say, hypothetically, you're correct -- that Yuni is a "bad" defender, but it can't be proven beyond a shadow of a doubt he's the worst in baseball. Wouldn't you still want him replaced? Since when is "bad but possibly not the absolute worst" a good argument in favor of something? Why would you want somebody you know/admit is bad on the team?

[Invader3K]

His defense still is extremely questionable, but I would say his offense is making up for it at this point. His ABs are no longer as despicable as they once were. I wonder if Sveum got him to adjust his swing or something? Before the All-Star break he was just flailing away...now it indeed seems like he is "waiting back" as Rock says.

[JJHardy7]

Boy...I hope we don't pick up his contract. I'm so sick of the Yuni threads repeating the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over...and over again. Yuni is hitting the ball well. Go Yuni! What's wrong with that? Seriously...the guy could hit a game winning HR in the clinching game of the world series and some folks would mention right away that he sucks at defense...we get it.

 

This thread (I think) was to give Yuni some props. It doesn't say Yuni = MVP or anything like that. It doesn't say he's awesome at defense. It does say IMO that while we were screwed when Weeks went down Yuni has big-time picked us up on offense. If you think about it (sorry stat folks), this is/was the perfect time for Yuni to do that. I hate to say it...but offensively we'd be hurting w/o Yuni. I know that's against all logic since Yuni is the worst player to ever play for the Brewers. I'm sick and tired of the Yuni hate and even if he played for free next year I'd pass...I don't want another 100 page thread telling me how bad he is, if he is the worst in baseball, etc. I'm just going to enjoy this season. He's not the best, he's not great, he makes bad plays, etc. So what? Yuni is what we're going with and I say go Yuni!

 

* I don't think we should pick up his option or anything like that. He'd have to be real cheap. I just don't think he's so bad that the sun won't rise tomorrow. We can win with him. We should focus more on 3B where we have in option in AAA to replace a guy. SS...we don't have much. And...it takes moves like that to get pitching. Again, I ask what SS should we have traded for? If Yuni sucks, fine...who should be SS of the Brewers right now?