Expectations for the St. Louis Series

[davego]

I'm with Augie, when Prince and Corey are throwing booze around...then life will be good.

[Invader3K]

I wonder if Carpenter isn't hurting. I know that he didn't look very good on Saturday and that LaRussa made a mound visit instead of the Lilliquist.

 

This could be a crazy series. I hope that our bats come alive. I know that the odds are in our favor but I also know that we have a tougher schedule over the next couple of weeks than what we have had. If we lose a couple of games in a row I could see us tightening up. It would happen to most teams. I won't relax until after I see a division title celebration. We have made the play-offs 3 times. In 81 clinched on the next to last day, in 82 we clinched on the last day, and in 2008 we clinched on the last day of the season. In 82 and 08 we had a small cushion and played poorly in September. I am therefore conditioned to believe that it will happen again.

The difference this year is that we should have some late season help with the returns of Weeks and Gomez.

I am going to be very optimistic and think we can clinch during the Reds series that goes Sept. 16-18. That would give the Crew about a good week and a half of playing relatively meaningless games.

 

[djoctagone]

i'm expecting that the brewers, in the interest of having more players eligible for post-season play, will not activate carlos gomez until game three of the series (1 september).

 

having said that, it's imperative for the brewers to win game one, lest management feel pressured that gomez is a must-have for game two.

 

i'm also expecting the brewers to cut a pitcher and bring up a position player not on the disabled list by the end of game two.

[rluzinski]

Anything but getting swept is fine for the Brewers in the long run. If we go 1-2 we are up 9 1/2 with 24 to play.\

Agreed. I'd be fine with the Brewers finishing 2-4 against the Cards because that's basically the end of them.

Dickson is making his first big league start and I know we usually struggle in those games...

How do you know that?

[jjfanec]

Dickson is making his first big league start and I know we usually struggle in those games...

How do you know that?

How do I know Dickson is starting or that we struggle in game like that?

 

Here is the link to GatewayRedbirds and their fans talking about an article from the local St. Louis Paper saying Dickson is starting Thursday. From the article itself

Dickson is scheduled to start tonight for Class AAA Memphis. He is 8-9

with a 3.73 ERA. La Russa said it is a "good time" to get Carpenter an

extra day of rest. Carpenter was scheduled to make the start Thursday,

but instead the Cardinals will go with Dickson on short rest instead of

the ace.

[homer]

I think he's asking how you know we struggle in games against first time starters.

[jjfanec]

I think he's asking how you know we struggle in games against first time starters.

Well that just seems to be the eye-ball test. I am not sure if there are any stats to back it up but it does seem like they dont hit a ton against guys making their first start. It gets talked about a lot on this board as well, but maybe it is one of those things that gets talked about a lot but has no statistical backing

[jmeks23]

If he throws hard we'll light him up ALA Tommy Hanson's first start. If he is a finesse pitcher then yeah, the bats will be quiet. Our guys like big juicy fastballs that don't move.

[brwrsfan]

The only thing that can't happen here is a sweep by the Cardinals. Granted, we'd still have a big lead but this could give them life and momentum, especially since we play again next week. This is a chance to really bury them, but as long as we can just go 1-2, we'll still have a nice 9.5 game lead, and more importantly, 3 more games will be removed from the calendar.

 

It seems like the pitching matchups are definitely in our favor for all 3 games if Carpenter doesn't go, and we're at home. Those things together would seem to make it very unlikely that we don't win at least one game. Anything more than that and the race will be all but over I think.

[Dragonbait]

Just think... a sweep of both series puts our magic number (assuming the Reds stay under Stl) well into the single digits.....

[topper09er]

Last 10 career debuts as a starter vs the Brewers

 

Gcar	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
1	Paul Maholm	2005-08-30	PIT	MIL	W 6-0	8.0	4	0	0	3	5	0	0.00
1	Boof Bonser	2006-05-21	MIN	MIL	L 3-5	6.0	5	1	1	3	8	0	1.50
1	Rick Vanden Hurk	2007-04-10	FLA	MIL	L 2-3	4.2	5	1	1	3	5	0	1.93
1	Jonathon Niese	2008-09-02	NYM	MIL	W 6-5	3.0	7	5	5	4	2	1	15.00
1	Anthony Swarzak	2009-05-23	MIN	MIL	W 6-2	7.0	5	0	0	2	3	0	0.00
1	Tommy Hanson	2009-06-07	ATL	MIL	W 8-7	6.0	6	7	6	1	5	3	9.00
1	Alfredo Figaro	2009-06-20	DET	MIL	W 9-5	5.0	8	2	2	2	7	1	3.60
1	Ryan Sadowski	2009-06-28	SFG	MIL	W 7-0	6.0	4	0	0	3	2	0	0.00
1	Cesar Carrillo	2009-08-13	SDP	MIL	L 9-12	2.1	4	8	8	2	1	3	30.86
1	Thomas Diamond	2010-08-03	CHC	MIL	L 3-4	6.0	7	3	3	3	10	0	4.50
1	Aaron Thompson	2011-08-24	PIT	MIL	W 2-0	4.1	4	0	0	2	1	0	0.00

This doesn't include Randy Wells who appeared in 4 games in relief before his first career start vs us. Here is his line from that game

 

Gcar	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
5	May 8	CHC	MIL	L,2-3	5.0	5	0	0	2	5	0	0.00

 

The average line from these 11 games is

5 2/3 IP, 5.8 H, 2.7 BB, 4.9 K, 3.75 ERA.

 

The Brewers' record in these games is 5-6

[igor67]

That's a pretty good ERA, when you look at the pitchers that's an excellent ERA. Well I suppose it's nice to know that we aren't imagining this problem with pitcher debuts. Well at least we can all remember benefiting from Chris Saenz' one major league start. Too bad his arm exploded.

[kilgore37]

Another classy move by Sir Albert, he caught a foul ball and the acts like he's going to give the ball away only to pull it back at the last second.

[pitchleague]

topper, that's 11 games http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

Anyway, I'm surprised there's only been 11 of these instances since 2005. Sure seems like more than that.

[topper09er]

topper, that's 11 games http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

Anyway, I'm surprised there's only been 11 of these instances since 2005. Sure seems like more than that.

I didn't say it meant anything, just showing the stats.

 

There may have been more, this only found players who made their first career start as their first career game. I just caught Wells because I remember that one, anyone else remember any 1st career starts against us that I didn't list? If so those guys must have had a few relief appearances before their first start.

[rluzinski]

Last 10 career debuts as a starter vs the Brewers

 

Gcar	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
1	Paul Maholm	2005-08-30	PIT	MIL	W 6-0	8.0	4	0	0	3	5	0	0.00
1	Boof Bonser	2006-05-21	MIN	MIL	L 3-5	6.0	5	1	1	3	8	0	1.50
1	Rick Vanden Hurk	2007-04-10	FLA	MIL	L 2-3	4.2	5	1	1	3	5	0	1.93
1	Jonathon Niese	2008-09-02	NYM	MIL	W 6-5	3.0	7	5	5	4	2	1	15.00
1	Anthony Swarzak	2009-05-23	MIN	MIL	W 6-2	7.0	5	0	0	2	3	0	0.00
1	Tommy Hanson	2009-06-07	ATL	MIL	W 8-7	6.0	6	7	6	1	5	3	9.00
1	Alfredo Figaro	2009-06-20	DET	MIL	W 9-5	5.0	8	2	2	2	7	1	3.60
1	Ryan Sadowski	2009-06-28	SFG	MIL	W 7-0	6.0	4	0	0	3	2	0	0.00
1	Cesar Carrillo	2009-08-13	SDP	MIL	L 9-12	2.1	4	8	8	2	1	3	30.86
1	Thomas Diamond	2010-08-03	CHC	MIL	L 3-4	6.0	7	3	3	3	10	0	4.50
1	Aaron Thompson	2011-08-24	PIT	MIL	W 2-0	4.1	4	0	0	2	1	0	0.00

This doesn't include Randy Wells who appeared in 4 games in relief before his first career start vs us. Here is his line from that game

 

Gcar	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
5	May 8	CHC	MIL	L,2-3	5.0	5	0	0	2	5	0	0.00

 

The average line from these 11 games is

5 2/3 IP, 5.8 H, 2.7 BB, 4.9 K, 3.75 ERA.

 

The Brewers' record in these games is 5-6

First, thanks for doing the homework.

You apparently listed the last 11 debuts (you said 10). The last 10 starting pitching debuts against the Brewers has a 4.65 ERA against the Brewers. The Brewers have a 1.59 WHIP in those games. That's a completely arbitrary cutoff of course and I should probably include Wells in there but I don't see anything out of the ordinary. Sometimes they do well and sometimes they don't. I just think sometimes the expectation around here is that the Brewers should pummel every starting pitcher making his debut. That's just not the way it works.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The thing is, I really don't think this just happens to us. I remember when Steve Woodard brilliantly went toe to toe with Roger Clemens in his debut, going 8, giving up 1 hit, 1 walk, and punching out 12 Blue Jays.

 

Chris Saenz in 2004 came up and started agains the Cards, and went 6 ip, 2 hits, 3 walks, and 7 punch outs.

 

I think what's really going on is it's a pitcher nobody in the lineup has seen, there's no advanced scouting, and probably little film. It's a guy coming into a situation where the opponent knows very little about him, and it's not all that uncommon where a guy goes through a league the first time around better than you might expect.

[pitchleague]

I agree with you 100% RoCo. I think your analysis is spot on.

 

Those times that a rookie in his debut who struggles are probably (note: this in my opinion, not a fact) the rookies that are having the butterflies, jitters, and nerves that they can't control. Those that pitch well are the ones that can probably contain their apprehensions and pitch well with no advanced scouting on the guy.

[RockCoCougars]

This 'struggle against guys making their first start' thing has been going on since I've been following the team. Thanks for the list... I'd love to see it going back to the 70's. I went to one at County that has always stuck in my mind, in I believe 1989. A couple of buddies and I were talking about this phenomenon over a few pops in the parking lot when we saw Dave Eiland was pitching. One buddy disagreed and started talking smack when Molitor lit him up with a leadoff homer. I think that was the only hit that he gave up (maybe one or two more), but Righetti came in and blew the game.

[topper09er]

Here is the complete list with a little manual compiling since I do not subscribe to the play index search tool at bb-ref.

 

Gcar	Player	Date ?	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
1	Aaron Thompson	2011-08-24	PIT	MIL	W 2-0	4.1	4	0	0	2	1	0	0.00
1	Thomas Diamond	2010-08-03	CHC	MIL	L 3-4	6.0	7	3	3	3	10	0	4.50
1	Cesar Carrillo	2009-08-13	SDP	MIL	L 9-12	2.1	4	8	8	2	1	3	30.86
1	Ryan Sadowski	2009-06-28	SFG	MIL	W 7-0	6.0	4	0	0	3	2	0	0.00
1	Alfredo Figaro	2009-06-20	DET	MIL	W 9-5	5.0	8	2	2	2	7	1	3.60
1	Tommy Hanson	2009-06-07	ATL	MIL	W 8-7	6.0	6	7	6	1	5	3	9.00
1	Anthony Swarzak	2009-05-23	MIN	MIL	W 6-2	7.0	5	0	0	2	3	0	0.00
1	Jonathon Niese	2008-09-02	NYM	MIL	W 6-5	3.0	7	5	5	4	2	1	15.00
1	Rick Vanden Hurk	2007-04-10	FLA	MIL	L 2-3	4.2	5	1	1	3	5	0	1.93

Gcar	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
1	Boof Bonser	2006-05-21	MIN	MIL	L 3-5	6.0	5	1	1	3	8	0	1.50
1	Paul Maholm	2005-08-30	PIT	MIL	W 6-0	8.0	4	0	0	3	5	0	0.00
1	Anthony Reyes	2005-08-09	STL	MIL	W 5-2	6.1	2	2	2	1	5	1	2.84
1	Zach Duke	2005-07-02	PIT	MIL	L 3-5	7.0	5	3	3	1	9	1	3.86
1	Chin-hui Tsao	2003-07-25	COL	MIL	W 7-3	6.1	8	3	3	1	5	2	4.26
1	Kirk Saarloos	2002-06-18	HOU	MIL	L 1-7	4.2	6	6	6	3	4	1	11.57
1	Nate Teut	2002-05-04	FLA	MIL	L 4-6	4.1	8	5	5	1	3	0	10.38

Gcar	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
1	Josh Pearce	2002-04-20	STL	MIL	L 3-5	4.2	6	3	3	3	0	0	5.79
1	Juan Cruz	2001-08-21	CHC	MIL	L 1-3	6.0	3	2	2	1	8	0	3.00
1	Carlos Zambrano	2001-08-20 (2)	CHC	MIL	L 2-10	4.0	4	7	7	4	3	1	15.75
1	Jose Acevedo	2001-06-19	CIN	MIL	L 8-10	4.0	4	6	6	2	4	3	13.50
1	Adam Eaton	2000-05-30	SDP	MIL	W 6-3	5.1	5	3	3	2	4	1	5.06
1	Brian O'Connor	2000-05-13	PIT	MIL	W 11-8	2.0	7	6	6	2	0	1	27.00
1	Buddy Carlyle	1999-08-29	SDP	MIL	W 5-4	7.0	2	4	1	2	5	1	1.29
1	Dan Reichert	1999-07-16 (2)	KCR	MIL	W 12-10	1.2	5	7	7	4	1	0	37.80
1	Brian Meadows	1998-04-04	FLA	MIL	L 2-6	3.2	10	6	6	2	3	0	14.73
1	Brian Moehler	1996-09-22	DET	MIL	W 7-5	5.1	6	5	0	4	1	1	0.00

Gcar	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
1	Steve Wojciechowski	1995-07-18	OAK	MIL	L 0-4	5.0	8	3	3	3	2	0	5.40
1	Tim VanEgmond	1994-06-26	BOS	MIL	L 4-5	7.2	5	5	5	4	7	1	5.87
1	Gar Finnvold	1994-05-10	BOS	MIL	L 5-9	5.0	4	2	2	2	4	0	3.60
1	Mark Holzemer	1993-08-21	CAL	MIL	W 7-6	6.0	9	5	5	3	2	0	7.50
1	Steve Karsay	1993-08-17	OAK	MIL	W 6-3	6.1	6	2	2	1	3	0	2.84
1	Bob Wickman	1992-08-24	NYY	MIL	W 9-8	6.0	6	5	3	0	2	0	4.50
1	Denny Neagle	1991-07-27	MIN	MIL	W 7-4	3.0	4	2	2	1	5	1	6.00
1	Wade Taylor	1991-06-02	NYY	MIL	W 7-4	5.1	7	4	4	1	4	0	6.75
1	Denis Boucher	1991-04-12	TOR	MIL	W 5-4	5.1	5	4	3	1	1	2	5.06
1	Scott Aldred	1990-09-09	DET	MIL	W 5-0	5.0	4	0	0	5	2	0	0.00

Gcar	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
1	Alex Fernandez	1990-08-02 (1)	CHW	MIL	W 4-3	7.0	5	2	2	2	4	1	2.57
1	Dave Eiland	1988-08-03	NYY	MIL	L 5-6	7.0	3	1	1	2	3	1	1.29
1	Al Leiter	1987-09-15	NYY	MIL	W 4-3	6.0	4	1	1	4	8	0	1.50
1	Bob Tewksbury	1986-04-11	NYY	MIL	W 3-2	7.1	9	2	2	1	2	0	2.45
1	Jeff Sellers	1985-09-15	BOS	MIL	W 4-2	6.1	8	2	1	3	1	0	1.42
1	Joel Davis	1985-08-11	CHW	MIL	W 4-1	7.0	5	1	1	2	6	0	1.29
1	Mark Langston	1984-04-07	SEA	MIL	W 3-2	7.0	4	2	2	3	5	1	2.57
1	Allan Ramirez	1983-06-08	BAL	MIL	W 7-3	7.0	5	2	2	5	2	0	2.57
1	Stefan Wever	1982-09-17	NYY	MIL	L 0-14	2.2	6	9	8	3	2	1	27.00
1	Rich Barnes	1982-07-18	CHW	MIL	L 3-9	1.2	5	6	6	1	0	0	32.40

Gcar

Player

Date

Tm

Opp

Rslt

 

IP

H

R

ER

BB

SO

HR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ERA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

Dan Petry

1979-07-08 (2)

DET

MIL

L 1-3

 

7.1

10

3

3

1

2

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.68

 

 

 

<

[RockCoCougars]

You are the man, onlinetopper09er! I've been looking for such a list forever. Thank you very much. On a related off topic note, didn't Frank Thomas debut in the same game as Fernandez? A Friday twi-night doubleheader I believe.

[RockCoCougars]

Wow, there was something to this afterall. Look at the 11 season stretch from 1983 to 1993. 1-14 with the only win the aforementioned Righetti blow up. Thanks again for the list, I've been to a handful of these games.

[rluzinski]

I agree with you 100% RoCo. I think your analysis is spot on.

 

Those times that a rookie in his debut who struggles are probably (note: this in my opinion, not a fact) the rookies that are having the butterflies, jitters, and nerves that they can't control. Those that pitch well are the ones that can probably contain their apprehensions and pitch well with no advanced scouting on the guy.

I'm somewhat skeptical of the "advanced scouting" or "jitters" phenomena. Of course, you could attempt to test it by looking at the spread of "debut starting pitcher" performance and compare it to everyone else.

[twobrewers]

Did anyone else catch Furcal during Prince's at bat in the 9th inning?

 

He appeared to line up at SS, and then right before the pitch, he would sprint towards second base. It looked like a pick-off play at second base. This didn't happen once either. On every pitch, you could see Furcal flash on the bottom of the television screen as he sprinted towards second base.

 

On the D-List today, Haudricourt suspected it might have been LaRussa messing with Prince during his at bat by having a player running into his line of site behind the pitcher.

 

Anyone have any other explanation?

[topper09er]

Did anyone else catch Furcal during Prince's at bat in the 9th inning?

 

He appeared to line up at SS, and then right before the pitch, he would sprint towards second base. It looked like a pick-off play at second base. This didn't happen once either. On every pitch, you could see Furcal flash on the bottom of the television screen as he sprinted towards second base.

 

On the D-List today, Haudricourt suspected it might have been LaRussa messing with Prince during his at bat by having a player running into his line of site behind the pitcher.

 

Anyone have any other explanation?

No he did that in the 6th inning when Prince had a runner on 3rd < 2 outs. TLR was trying to show the infield was playing back to concede the run, hoping Prince would just ground out to tie the game (which he never do anyways and probably get mad if someone told him to do that) and then Furcal would be there to throw the runner out at home.