Toronto calls up Lawrie

[jjfanec]

Only a .936 OPS so far this month ... what a bum

 

 

I didnt say he was a bum did I? I said his numbers are coming back to where he will likely end up which is still very good. I also never said an ops of only .936 I said a BA of only .268. I was just pointing out that as he spent more time in the majors his numbers have decreased some, even though they are still very good.

[TooLiveBrew]

"he has only hit .268 in Sept with an OPS of .936."

 

I took "only" as applied to both AVG & OPS. Oh well.

 

There's just a lot of denial about this guy amongst BF.netters imo. Can someone point to the post that said he's going to be a HoF player? Because otherwise let's drop the "ushered into the HoF" stuff.

[Funketown]

TLB, I think the bulk of us really wish we still had the guy, even if we make fun of his frat-bro mentalities.

 

He has had a great year so far. I am curious to know what Money would have said about Lawrie in AAA...

[JJHardy7]

I thought and think this guy will be really good...only question is how good and if he can stick in the outfield.

 

In regard to his attitude, I agree with homer. It does matter to the Crew (see Money's flattering comments regarding Gamel, Mat).

[jjfanec]

"he has only hit .268 in Sept with an OPS of .936."

 

I took "only" as applied to both AVG & OPS. Oh well.

 

There's just a lot of denial about this guy amongst BF.netters imo. Can someone point to the post that said he's going to be a HoF player? Because otherwise let's drop the "ushered into the HoF" stuff.

You are right the HOF talk was hyperbole. There was at least one person in this thread saying he will for sure be an all-star. What denial is there? Almost everyone has said he is a very good player but some here are acting the like the Marcum trade was a big mistake (not you) because of how Lawrie has started. Just like people were saying the same thing when Odorizzi was dominating and Greinke was struggling. Odorizzi cooled down and Greinke looked better. I think it less denial and more restraint.

 

I dont want to come off like I think Lawrie is going to be a bust. I think he is going to be a very solid player. However, reading this makes me feel the same way the Greinke trade threads did in May. I am not going to regret trading Lawrie until he keeps this up for a couple years.

[mothershipconnection]

After watching him a couple of times, I'm just glad he was traded to a team I don't hate, or there could've been major salt in a wound in the future. The Jays, OTOH, I feel bad for and actually want to see them do well.

[RockCoCougars]

Lawrie has been scuffling a bit lately

 

He must not have washed all the 'Brewer' off yet.

[GB12]

http://media.thestar.topscms.com/images/d7/46/10e23f864ec08444ec510e657229.jpeg

On the right

[TheCrew07]

I think what TLB is getting at, is that many posters around here will trade any minor leaguer, no matter how much potential they have, for proven MLB talent 100 times out of 100, and that's no way to build an organization or sustain success over a number of years at MLB. As far as the the standard unsupportable hyperbole regarding prospects who haven't proven anything yet, I've addressed my disdain for such throw away comments over the years. Bring a legitimate argument regarding why a prospect won't ultimately succeed or don't say anything at all, most of the posters on the MLB forum don't follow the minors enough to possess a well informed personal opinion on a prospect, regardless of the name. Honestly, that's always bothered me because there's a wealth of analysis on a daily basis just a click away on the Minor League forum. Yes prospects will fail, but that's actually an argument for building a strong farm system and having more prospects, so the organization has multiple options, it's not an argument to drain the well dry like Melvin did to address a decade's worth of inactivity/ineptitude in acquiring/drafting/developing young starting pitching.

 

I've written it many times, Marcum is one of the few tossers I've ever latched onto, but many people just aren't being objective about the relative talent acquired in this deal or the Greinke deal. Marcum is an over achiever for the course of his career, getting a ton of milage out of 1 very good pitch. Greinke has the stuff to be an ace but has only managed to pitch at that level for 1 season in his 9 year career.

 

In the case of Marcum, Lawrie was at the time of the trade, still is, and forever will be a more gifted player, he was the only potential impact position player in our entire organization at the time of the trade. Melvin did not trade for equal talent. Marcum has pitched like he always has, but his good results do not reflect his natural talent as a baseball player, in the same way McGehee's success doesn't represent his true athletic talent. Not to mention he'll be 30 years old next season and becomes a bigger injury risk with each passing year. I would have traded for Marcum in 2006, I wouldn't have traded him for in 2010 as a 29 year old coming off TJ surgery with 2 years of arbitration left. I compared Lawrie's attitude to Braun on numerous occassions and I believe that to be a fair comparison. It's seems to me that people are grasping at straws as justification or in support of Melvin.

 

As far as Greinke goes, I've been steady in my opinion of the deal since the day it happened, we overpaid. Odorizzi cooling off has nothing to do with anything, it's about the amount of talent given up for the talent acquired. Greinke simply doesn't pitch like a #1 year in and year out, despite having the talent to do so, but Melvin paid for him as if he was a #1, and many posters on this expected him to pitch like Sabathia, which just wasn't going to be the case.

 

Everything has broken the Brewer's way this season, especially health wise as the starting pitching stayed healthy. The only significant loss was Weeks and his loss coincided with the best pitching stretch of the season. Very few teams can afford to continually buy MLB talent with prospects and sustain success, especially a team like the Brewers who isn't able to spend market value financially to retain proven talent they've drafted and developed, while at the same time haven't been drafting the same quality of player since Z left for Seattle. A team like Boston has made it work by continuing to draft and develop quality talent with those comp picks. Yes high compensation draft picks can potentially help the Brewers as well, but the Brewers haven't exactly hit homeruns with those picks over recent years, the talent well has been steadily running dry. Heckathorn is probably the best supplemental pick of the bunch at this time, and he's looking like a back of the rotation guy if he makes it.

 

The combination of moves Melvin made with prospects has worked out wonderfully for the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers, they might even make the WS though I personally don't see it. However those moves came with a price, the organizaiton is not positioned well to sustain success. Melvin paid a steep price to acquire Marcum and Greinke, but then offset those relatively expensive moves with deals for Morgan and K-Rod which were relatively cheap and added productive talent. For example, I never viewed Loe as a black hole as a reliever, I always felt the problem was RR's use of him, but adding K-Rod for essentially peanuts was a wonderfully cost effective move especially given the way Braddock's career has panned out. Trading Marcum for Lawrie would have made little difference for the 2011 Brewers without the moves that came behind the original deal. I'll give Melvin his due, he's certainly had his best season as a GM this year, but I don't agree with his overall team building philosophy.

 

I will always believe that the Brewer's pitching situation didn't have to become as dire as it did coming out of 2010, Melvin bungled said situation horribly from about 2005 through 2010 which backed him into the corner that ultimately led to him making the Marcum and Greinke trades... but there were plenty of young, cheap, and productive pitches available over the years that Melvin never made the move for. Off the top of my head Cain, Niemann, and Buccholz were all on the block in successive years, 2 of those 3 guys would have made a huge difference in our staff from 2009 till now, and wouldn't have cost us a total of LaPorta, Brantley, Bryson, Escobar, Cain, Jeffress, Odorizzi, and Lawrie to get there.

 

I've always maintained it's much easier to find a cost effective position player to fill a hole than a pitcher, and I'd feel a ton better about a combination of Lawrie+Gamel together replacing Prince's production next season than I do hoping McGehee bounces back or a McGehee/Green platoon gets the job done with Gamel. I'm not a huge fan of platoons to begin with, though I do understand the relative necessity of them, but neither McGehee or Green is especially athletic, and I'm always looking to become more dynamic athletically as an organization. I want to build on youth and mix in veteran talent to fill the holes, I realize that's different philosophy than many posters on this site and Melvin himself. I wouldn't have ever traded 8-9 years of Lawrie (assuming a deal that I want to make with all young impact/core players from the system to buy out 2 years of FA) for 2 years of Marcum. Simply put, it's not a deal for equal talent or equal production... in the short term it can be, but over the course of their tenure with their respective teams it won't be. I tend to favor a longer term view of the organization which is one of the reasons I tend to despise rental player deals by default. I'd rather be the seller than the buyer, cycling talent back around it on itself acquring prospects, rather than selling any prospects of value for short term solutions and draft picks as the value of the draft picks is just impossible to quantify.

 

Value wise the only way this trade works out in the Brewer's favor on it's own merits is if Lawrie ends up being a below average MLB player, which seems unlikely at this point in time. The combination of trades that Melvin made have worked out wonderfully, but both the Marcum and Greinke deals on their own were significant overpays. It's difficult to separate the various deals and view them independently, especially given the success of the MLB team this season, but it's not impossible to be somewhat objective and evaluate the deals on their own merits. I believe the sum of deals is better than the individual parts, the Morgan trade was at least as important to the MLB club as the Marcum trade, and it was infinitely more cost effective.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Value wise the only way this trade works out in the Brewer's favor on it's own merits is if Lawrie ends up being a below average MLB player, which seems unlikely at this point in time. The combination of trades that Melvin made have worked out wonderfully, but both the Marcum and Greinke deals on their own were significant overpays. It's difficult to separate the various deals and view them independently, especially given the success of the MLB team this season, but it's not impossible to be somewhat objective and evaluate the deals on their own merits. I believe the sum of deals is better than the individual parts, the Morgan trade was at least as important to the MLB club as the Marcum trade, and it was infinitely more cost effective.

 

I'll take the two trades, regardless of how much some people think the Brewers overpaid, 100% of the time when put in the context of this being Fielder's last season in Milwaukee. Would I like to have kept Lawrie? Sure, but I'd rather make the playoffs and have a team with a shot at doing some playoff damage than treading water for multiple seasons. The trades Melvin made this year have made the MLB team so much better than it would have been. Without Greinke and Marcum, the Brewers don't make the playoffs this year, and with Lawrie and company from the other trades, the Brewers don't make the playoffs in future years once Fielder leaves if the pitching still isn't addressed.

[RWeeksFan23]

I agree with pretty much every word, TheCrew07. Just out of curiousity though, why aren't you too keen on platoons?

[jjfanec]

.

 

As far as Greinke goes, I've been steady in my opinion of the deal since the day it happened, we overpaid. Odorizzi cooling off has nothing to do with anything, it's about the amount of talent given up for the talent acquired. Greinke simply doesn't pitch like a #1 year in and year out, despite having the talent to do so, but Melvin paid for him as if he was a #1, and many posters on this expected him to pitch like Sabathia, which just wasn't going to be the case.

 

. Off the top of my head Cain, Niemann, and Buccholz were all on the block in successive years, 2 of those 3 guys would have made a huge difference in our staff from 2009 till now, and wouldn't have cost us a total of LaPorta, Brantley, Bryson, Escobar, Cain, Jeffress, Odorizzi, and Lawrie to get there.

Cain and Buccholz alone would have cost a ton. I think you undervalue what it takes to get pitching. The Cubs gave up really good prospects to get Garza. St. Louis gave up Rasmus for E. Jackson and a couple okay relievers. Bryson and Jeffress did not have a ton of value even if we loved them as prospects and neither are really of much value anymore. Escobar was shown to be one some scouts thought he was - an all-field no hit shortstop. Cain is a solid but not great outfield prospect same with Brantley. LaPorta, Odorizza and Lawrie are the only guys who are top 100 type prospects. Lawrie looks like a potential stud. Odorizzi looked dominant until he got to AA ball but he has time to turn it around and LaPorta has been ok at best.

 

Cain alone would have cost a haul close to Greinke when you wanted to trade for him

Buccholz was the #4 prospect in baseball in 2008. No guy on this list was top 20 except maybe Lawrie last year but you would have had to package a player like Lawrie and another to get Clay.

Neimann was young and under control for a long time and peaked as #20 on the prospect list. He would have cost a lot too.

 

You under-estimate what it would cost to get major league ready pitching. Especially pitching under control for 4 plus years like all these guys were.

 

Greinke has been an ace since the break. He had a rough start because he didnt have Spring Training but his 2.23 ERA and peripherals are ace like. Maybe not Sabbathia-like but still terrific.

 

I could go one with your post with where I agree and disagree but I dont have the time. I do agree people (inlcuding myself) at times are trying to down play how good Lawrie is. He has the potential to be a star player and he was overpaying (not by as much as you think) for Marcum. However, I will never agree we overpaid for Greinke. Of the 4 prospects only two were guys I miss even a little.

[strawbossisevil]

Jjfanec, that is exactly right. Top end pitching prospects are currently overvalued. Getting one in a trade like Buccholz or Niemann would have cost us at least as much as the Greinke or Marcum trades, if not more and when you consider the flame out rate of prospect pitchers, it's even harder. For every Buccholz there is a Homer Bailey.

 

I think my biggest issue with ThCrew's argument is that it is always based on these hypothetical prospect pitcher trades, but please look around baseball. How many top pitching prospects change hands? It hardly ever happens. It happened with the Rays getting Garza, but they had to give up baseball's top rated prospect to get him. Of course one can always point to the absolute fleecing of the Mets a few years earlier by the Rays, but that had to do more with absolutelty horrific GMing by the Mets (there is a reason that GM is no longer running a club).

 

Point is trades for top rung pitching prospects happened only a couple of times over the past decade. The argument isn't very realistic. As other's have pointed out, if the Brewers wouldn't have made this offseason's trades they would have remained in their "good" but not "great" run. Very few teams have been ever able to make postseason runs using the prospect only model. The only modern example was the Rays in 2008. Despite that one year of success, the Rays since then have remained in that "good" but not "great" category of teams, and that has been the case despite having the best farm system of any team in recent memory. If their farm system leaves them out of the playoffs more often than in the playoffs, what would that mean for the Brewers if they followed that model?

[rluzinski]

The Brewers got something like $15 mil of production out of Marcum for $4 mil this year. They have a good chance of getting $10+ mil of net production out him next year as well. Lawrie may prove to be the real deal but he might have to give Toronto something like $25+ mil of production for them to even break even on the trade. Long way to go.

 

And what level of raw athleticism Marcum possesses or how many plus pitches he throws is basically irrelevant.

[jjfanec]

And what level of raw athleticism Marcum possesses or how many plus pitches he throws is basically irrelevant.

Exactly. I dont care about athleticism or plus pitches if the guy gets results. Marcum has been very good for us. I dont care what he runs the 40 in, how high his vertical is, how much he can bench, or whatever. Even it the athleticism was in regard to how fast he throws. Ubaldo Jimenez throws really fast but Marcum has completely outperformed him. Would it have been better if we traded for Jimenez instead?

[cwolf2012]

Lawrie still had some major question marks when we traded him as well. He was coming off a season where he hit .285/.346/.449 in AA. Very good for a 21 year old, but not world beating. He also had a .350 BABIP on a paltry 15% LD rate. He also had terrible scouting reports for his glove.

 

Apparently he completely rectified all of those concerns in Toronto. It's not like DM could have known that.

 

Stop evaluating trades in hindsight.

 

EDIT: Also, where was Lawrie going to play when we traded him? LF? No. RF? No. 2B? Not after Rickie resigned. 3B? Casey was coming off 2 good seasons. There were plenty of reasons to make that trade. The Brewers were more likely than not going to lose in total value, but the 3 WAR Marcum's providing from the SP3 position is more of an upgrade this season and next than the possible extra 1-2 WAR we'd get at 3B over McGehee.

[jjfanec]

Lawrie's glove is still a big question mark. Scouts are split if he can stay at 3B. However his bat should play anywhere. He move valuable as a 3B, but depending whether he is more like August or September determines his overall worth. He is young and his power could continue to improve but he definitely cooled off after his hot start. His OPS in Sept while still respectable is .839. His walks are still solid and I am sure he will be fine going forward.

 

The trade has been made and Marcum has really helped us. We have no idea if Lawrie is going to be Ryan Braun (MVP caliber), Corey Hart (All-star candidate) or Jay Bruce (loads of potential but just solid) or one of the many guys who just havent lived up to the hype.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Brewers were more likely than not going to lose in total value, but the 3 WAR Marcum's providing from the SP3 position is more of an upgrade this season and next than the possible extra 1-2 WAR we'd get at 3B over McGehee.

I realize this is a bit nitpicky, but in 1/3rd a season, Lawrie's already at 2.7 WAR, and McGehee is at -.7. I realize that given a full season, I would expect Lawrie to regress some from his red hot start, but I don't think it's a stretch to say over 100 more games that Lawrie could put up another 1.5 WAR, making him a 5 win difference over McGehee if given a full season, and conservative estimates on how Lawrie would have performed over a full 150 games.

[jjfanec]

I realize this is a bit nitpicky, but in 1/3rd a season, Lawrie's already at 2.7 WAR, and McGehee is at -.7. I realize that given a full season, I would expect Lawrie to regress some from his red hot start, but I don't think it's a stretch to say over 100 more games that Lawrie could put up another 1.5 WAR, making him a 5 win difference over McGehee if given a full season, and conservative estimates on how Lawrie would have performed over a full 150 games.

This is nitpicky as well but Lawrie would not have had that 150 games. Even if you bring him up when Toronto was going to before he got hurt in early July you definitely dont get a 150 games. He wasnt going to win the job over Casey in Spring Training and we had our own 3B prospect raking in the minors that took us a while to callup

[DuWayne Steurer]

I realize this is a bit nitpicky, but in 1/3rd a season, Lawrie's already at 2.7 WAR, and McGehee is at -.7. I realize that given a full season, I would expect Lawrie to regress some from his red hot start, but I don't think it's a stretch to say over 100 more games that Lawrie could put up another 1.5 WAR, making him a 5 win difference over McGehee if given a full season, and conservative estimates on how Lawrie would have performed over a full 150 games.

This is nitpicky as well but Lawrie would not have had that 150 games. Even if you bring him up when Toronto was going to before he got hurt in early July you definitely dont get a 150 games. He wasnt going to win the job over Casey in Spring Training and we had our own 3B prospect raking in the minors that took us a while to callup

So let's use just the numbers that exist. Lawrie has a 3.4 WAR advantage over McGehee, in just the short time he's been up. Marcum's a 3.3 WAR player for the entire season.

 

Again, I'm not saying that I wouldn't do the trade if given teh opportunity again, I'm only calling into question that Lawrie would only be a 1-2 win improvement over McGehee. In just 50-ish games, he's almost 3.5

[jjfanec]

So let's use just the numbers that exist. Lawrie has a 3.4 WAR advantage over McGehee, in just the short time he's been up. Marcum's a 3.3 WAR player for the entire season.

 

Again, I'm not saying that I wouldn't do the trade if given teh opportunity again, I'm only calling into question that Lawrie would only be a 1-2 win improvement over McGehee. In just 50-ish games, he's almost 3.5

That is crazy. In that small amount of time he is a 3.5 win improvement? That is impressive and depressing at the same time. I wonder what Taylor Green would be?

[DuWayne Steurer]

So let's use just the numbers that exist. Lawrie has a 3.4 WAR advantage over McGehee, in just the short time he's been up. Marcum's a 3.3 WAR player for the entire season.

 

Again, I'm not saying that I wouldn't do the trade if given teh opportunity again, I'm only calling into question that Lawrie would only be a 1-2 win improvement over McGehee. In just 50-ish games, he's almost 3.5

That is crazy. In that small amount of time he is a 3.5 win improvement? That is impressive and depressing at the same time. I wonder what Taylor Green would be?

To be fair, it's just as much a condemnation of how truly bad McGehee has been. Lawrie's a 2.7 WAR. If you times that over a full season, he's about an 8 WAR (MVP type season). Like I previously said, I don't think he's going to put up a .970 OPS over an entire season as a rookie, but I don't think an .800 - .825 is unreasonable. Surprisingly, he's a .8 WAR defensively so far. I realize that the sample size defensively is pretty small, but he's got an above average fielding percentage and UZR as it stands.

 

I wouldn't be surprised next year to see a slash line from Lawrie around .340/.475/.815 with 25 homers. I'd guess that he'll be a 3-4 WAR player next year (and that's being 'safe').

[rwa12]

I find it hard to knock Melvin for these 2 trades. He was put into the "all in" situation by Fielder's status, and ownership expectations. The majority of the offensive talent on this team was home grown, they aren't doing anything much different than what the Marlins did when they won their last WS. Build enough to come close, and then go out and acquire the difference makers. The interesting thing to me will be next year when Prince is gone. Do they try to maintain mediocrity, or do they sell chips like Hart, Greinke, and Marcum for pieces of the next championship run? Melvin isn't worried about the future of the franchise at the moment, the future is now. Lawire is a stud, he will most likely hit in this league for a long time, but he couldn't pitch for us, and that is what we needed.

[NievesNoNO]

rwa12[/b]]I find it hard to knock Melvin for these 2 trades. He was put into the "all in" situation by Fielder's status, and ownership expectations. The majority of the offensive talent on this team was home grown, they aren't doing anything much different than what the Marlins did when they won their last WS. Build enough to come close, and then go out and acquire the difference makers. The interesting thing to me will be next year when Prince is gone. Do they try to maintain mediocrity, or do they sell chips like Hart, Greinke, and Marcum for pieces of the next championship run? Melvin isn't worried about the future of the franchise at the moment, the future is now. Lawire is a stud, he will most likely hit in this league for a long time, but he couldn't pitch for us, and that is what we needed.

 

I was basically going to post something similar. Call it what you will "all in mode" or whatever they aquired two frontline starters for guys they didn't know weather or not they would be good, great or nothing. Lawrie appears to be the real deal thus far. Perhaps the others will also be very good too, but when you're close you take a shot. Yes, you need to restock the farm and do a complete rebuild from time to time, but spending each year trying to build for a potential mythical future and turn a blind eye to an opportunity that's right in front of you is a disservice to the organization and fans.

 

I think the loss of Fielder will be less impactful than what people think, at least next season. If they return Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo they'll compete for the division. Throw in an upgrade at SS and I don't see much of a slip.

[homer]

Greinke simply doesn't pitch like a #1 year in and year out, despite

having the talent to do so, but Melvin paid for him as if he was a #1,

and many posters on this expected him to pitch like Sabathia, which just

wasn't going to be the case.

He has almost pitched like Sabathia since the all star break....which is about how long the Brewers had CC.

 

Greinke post all star break: 2.29 ERA 86.1 innings 92 Ks 23 BB 1.08 WHIP

Sabathia post all star break in 2008 1.56 era 115.2 innings 114 K 19 BB .97 WHIP