Toronto calls up Lawrie

[DuWayne Steurer]

I hope Lawrie has a great career for Toronto, but I'd still do the trade for Marcum every time. With Lawrie on this team as a mid-season callup and a Dave Bush type instead of Marcum, we don't make the playoffs this year.

The difference between Marcum and Estrada is almost assuredly not 9 1/2 wins.

 

 

EDIT: Because I didn't want to figure out what the difference would be between Estrada and some other random pitcher. So I decided instead to just replace Marcum with a Dave Bush type. A 5.25 ERA in those 176.1 innings results in 40 more runs allowed, or, 4 less wins, on average. We'd still be standing, in theory, 6 games ahead of the Cards.

Well yes, except the Brewers on a talent basis aren't 10 wins better than the Cardinals right now. There is almost no difference between the Cardinals and Brewers except luck and perhaps Axford.

The Brewers are 10 games up. Someone said without Marcum we'd not be headed for the playoffs. I replaced Marcum's innings with a 5.25 ERA, and that's 40 more runs allowed. I'm not going to try to figure out who replaces who, what, where, why, when and how. There's no way you can measure the Brewers expected W/L based on that, seeing as we're already pretty far ahead of the pythagorean. I'm simply replacing Marcum's innings with 170 replacement innings, regardless if it's 130 from Dave Bush and 40 from a replacement level reliever, doesn't matter.

 

ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up.

[fondybrewfan]

The difference between Marcum and Estrada is almost assuredly not 9 1/2 wins.

 

 

EDIT: Because I didn't want to figure out what the difference would be between Estrada and some other random pitcher. So I decided instead to just replace Marcum with a Dave Bush type. A 5.25 ERA in those 176.1 innings results in 40 more runs allowed, or, 4 less wins, on average. We'd still be standing, in theory, 6 games ahead of the Cards.

Well yes, except the Brewers on a talent basis aren't 10 wins better than the Cardinals right now. There is almost no difference between the Cardinals and Brewers except luck and perhaps Axford.

The Brewers are 10 games up. Someone said without Marcum we'd not be headed for the playoffs. I replaced Marcum's innings with a 5.25 ERA, and that's 40 more runs allowed. I'm not going to try to figure out who replaces who, what, where, why, when and how. There's no way you can measure the Brewers expected W/L based on that, seeing as we're already pretty far ahead of the pythagorean. I'm simply replacing Marcum's innings with 170 replacement innings, regardless if it's 130 from Dave Bush and 40 from a replacement level reliever, doesn't matter.

 

ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up.

Of course the problem would be that it would be impossible to say "All else remaing equal" because not having Marcum would have other unknown ramifications on the team (Bullpen usage, salary used elsewhere, etc). I feel comfortable that without Marcum that we would still be in the race; I just have no idea how close the race would be. The offseason could have progressed so much differently it really doesn't pay to speculate where the Brewers would be if they had never completed that trade. In hindsight if they could have found a different starter similar to Marcum that didn't require giving up Lawrie that would have been the best of both worlds; not sure that was possible though. Plugging in Lawrie at 3rd instead of McGehee would be amazing.

 

[istanbultaye]

Well yes, except the Brewers on a talent basis aren't 10 wins better than the Cardinals right now. There is almost no difference between the Cardinals and Brewers except luck and perhaps Axford.

The Brewers are 10 games up. Someone said without Marcum we'd not be headed for the playoffs. I replaced Marcum's innings with a 5.25 ERA, and that's 40 more runs allowed. I'm not going to try to figure out who replaces who, what, where, why, when and how. There's no way you can measure the Brewers expected W/L based on that, seeing as we're already pretty far ahead of the pythagorean. I'm simply replacing Marcum's innings with 170 replacement innings, regardless if it's 130 from Dave Bush and 40 from a replacement level reliever, doesn't matter.

 

ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up.

Of course the problem would be that it would be impossible to say "All else remaing equal" because not having Marcum would have other unknown ramifications on the team (Bullpen usage, salary used elsewhere, etc). I feel comfortable that without Marcum that we would still be in the race; I just have no idea how close the race would be. The offseason could have progressed so much differently it really doesn't pay to speculate where the Brewers would be if they had never completed that trade. In hindsight if they could have found a different starter similar to Marcum that didn't require giving up Lawrie that would have been the best of both worlds; not sure that was possible though. Plugging in Lawrie at 3rd instead of McGehee would be amazing.

And it could be argued that without acquiring Marcum, or an equivalent pitcher, we would not have been able to pick up Greinke, though who knows for certain.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well yes, except the Brewers on a talent basis aren't 10 wins better than the Cardinals right now. There is almost no difference between the Cardinals and Brewers except luck and perhaps Axford.

The Brewers are 10 games up. Someone said without Marcum we'd not be headed for the playoffs. I replaced Marcum's innings with a 5.25 ERA, and that's 40 more runs allowed. I'm not going to try to figure out who replaces who, what, where, why, when and how. There's no way you can measure the Brewers expected W/L based on that, seeing as we're already pretty far ahead of the pythagorean. I'm simply replacing Marcum's innings with 170 replacement innings, regardless if it's 130 from Dave Bush and 40 from a replacement level reliever, doesn't matter.

 

ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up.

Of course the problem would be that it would be impossible to say "All else remaing equal" because not having Marcum would have other unknown ramifications on the team (Bullpen usage, salary used elsewhere, etc). I feel comfortable that without Marcum that we would still be in the race; I just have no idea how close the race would be. The offseason could have progressed so much differently it really doesn't pay to speculate where the Brewers would be if they had never completed that trade. In hindsight if they could have found a different starter similar to Marcum that didn't require giving up Lawrie that would have been the best of both worlds; not sure that was possible though. Plugging in Lawrie at 3rd instead of McGehee would be amazing.

This is precisely why I have to make the argument "all else being equal". It's impossible to measure the effect of not having Marcum *except* to give a number to the runs allowed in the innings he pitched that others would replace. Would it have a trickle down effect on the bullpen? Maybe, maybe not. Would it have affected getting Greinke? Maybe, maybe not. The only thing that we can for sure measure is the amount of runs X pitcher(s) would surrender in Marcum's innings, and how many wins (pythagorean) we'd have less because of it. I'm not at all discounting the other factors, but trying to measure them is an exercise in futility.

 

Even so, I strongly disagree with the notion that without Marcum, this team is not playoff bound. Marcum's been very good, but he's not a 10 game difference maker by himself.

[dlk9s]

Scientists are currently working on recreating an alternate universe in which the Brewers do not trade Lawrie for Marcum, a non-event which eventually leads to the return of the dinosaurs and a Milwaukee Bucks NBA Championship.

[Dragonbait]

I thought that show was on FOX this fall?

[thebruce44]

ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up.

And going to Philly to get curb stomped in the playoffs with Wolf as our #3 and a burnt out bullpen.

[DuWayne Steurer]

thebruce44]

ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up.

And going to Philly to get curb stomped in the playoffs with Wolf as our #3 and a burnt out bullpen.

Wolf hasn't exactly been terrible this year, by any means. And the bullpen being 'burnt out' if we had a guy routinely going 5 -6 instead of Marcum's 6 or 7 is debatable. Asking the bullpen to pick up another 35 innings shouldn't be 'burnout' inducing.

[Bombers]

Roderick]

The Brewers received comp pick(s) for Linebrink, right? What did he(they) turn out to be?

I think one was Cutter Dykstra - who turned into Nyjer Morgan. Not 100% sure, but I think this was the case. not sure who the other pick was.

Well if that is the case, I guess I would tangentially call the Linebrink (Morgan) for Thatcher/Inman/Garrison as a net win.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

1. The Brewers lost Cordero and Linebrink after the 2007 season and received selections 35 (Evan Frederickson) and 54 (Cutter Dykstra) for losing Linebrink.

2. Cordero netted us selections 32 (Jacob Odorizzi) and 53 (Seth Lintz) ...

 

So all in all losing Cordero and Linebrink netted us Nyjer Morgan and the first installment on the Greinke trade. (No clue where Frederickson or Lintz are as I don't see them on the power 50 and I don't follow minor league ball a whole lot outside of top prospects.) Also in the 2008 draft we took a risk on drafting Brett Lawrie, the highest a Canadian player has ever been selected. Which in part you could say Doug took the gamble on as we held picks 32, 35, 53 and 54 (the first 3 of those picks were spent on pitching) ... if we didn't have those extra compensatory selections, Doug may not have taken a gamble on a positional player. So in effect losing Cordero and Linebrink may have helped us get Marcum.

 

For those who are wondering losing CC and Shouse netted us:

1. Sabathia - Kentrail Davis (#16 on the Power 50) and Max Walla (#30 on the P50)

2. Brian Shouse - Kyle Heckathorn (#6 on the P50)

 

 

 

[Never Outhustled]

RoCoBrewfan wrote:

ALL ELSE being equal, if you replace Marcum with crap, the Brewers would still be 6 games up.

And going to Philly to get curb stomped in the playoffs with Wolf as our #3 and a burnt out bullpen.

 

 

Or the Brewers crush philly with an unstopable offense including Lawrie, a long with continued good starts by Greinke and Gallardo.

[dadofandrew]

As pointed out before, Greinke does not agree to come to MIL if not for Marcum.

 

I have long said I would have never dealt Lawrie. However, I do understand it. Above average SP's are hardly ever available on the trade market, and they cost a lot.

[Bombers]

As pointed out before, Greinke does not agree to come to MIL if not for Marcum.

 

I have long said I would have never dealt Lawrie. However, I do understand it. Above average SP's are hardly ever available on the trade market, and they cost a lot.

Pitching definitely costs a lot ... the Red Sox traded Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett. Would the Sox like to have Hanley in their lineup for the last 5 years. I'm sure they would. But you have to give to get. (Especially when you are the Brewers and you are horrible at drafting pitching)

 

[pretendastronaut]

This is precisely why I have to make the argument "all else being equal".

 

You fully admit you can't really say everything stays the same except for Marcum, but you're saying it anyway and making a declaration about the result in a false scenario. In your false scenario, where you're just substituting numbers and there's no ramifications, yes, you're perfectly right. In any scenario that considers the ramifications (because you would have to), you might be right, but you're likely not as comfortably right.

 

I think Marcum's biggest value was the first month and a half of the season, when Greinke was hurt and Gallardo was getting knocked around, Marcum felt like our stopper. Without him we likely had an even worse start and then who knows what happens after that.

 

Yes, Lawrie looks like a player as exciting as Braun was/is. But we're seeing the effect good pitching has now. I'll take the trade off of at least 2 years of good pitching, versus having Lawrie come up and give us another bat, but no pitching.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This is precisely why I have to make the argument "all else being equal".

 

You fully admit you can't really say everything stays the same except for Marcum, but you're saying it anyway and making a declaration about the result in a false scenario. In your false scenario, where you're just substituting numbers and there's no ramifications, yes, you're perfectly right. In any scenario that considers the ramifications (because you would have to), you might be right, but you're likely not as comfortably right.

 

I think Marcum's biggest value was the first month and a half of the season, when Greinke was hurt and Gallardo was getting knocked around, Marcum felt like our stopper. Without him we likely had an even worse start and then who knows what happens after that.

 

Yes, Lawrie looks like a player as exciting as Braun was/is. But we're seeing the effect good pitching has now. I'll take the trade off of at least 2 years of good pitching, versus having Lawrie come up and give us another bat, but no pitching.

I don't know how any more plainly I can say that there's no way to measure the trickle down from not having Marcum, but I don't believe that it's a net loss of a full 10 wins.

 

I'm not even saying I don't like Marcum, or that I disapprove of the trade, or that we're not a better team with him than we'd be with Lawrie. I'm ONLY saying that I don't believe the difference between Marcum and pitcher(s) X is 10 wins.

[RockCoCougars]

Pitching definitely costs a lot ... the Red Sox traded Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett. Would the Sox like to have Hanley in their lineup for the last 5 years. I'm sure they would. But you have to give to get. (Especially when you are the Brewers and you are horrible at drafting pitching)

 

Agreed. Lawrie is off like gangbusters, but he's got a long way to go before they should start casting his HOF bust. It looks like he's going to be a very good hitter for many years, but Marcum has been better than advertised. Going further, Lawrie is in pretty much the perfect situation. There's no saying he would have even been in Milwaukee this season (or next, judging on how they've handled some of the younger prospects). In the end, even if Lawrie turns out to be a superstar, I'll be able to accept it if the team can make a deep run in the playoffs this year or next year- hopefully both. In a way, it's kind of similar to the Sheffield trade which instead of a playoff run I accepted because Sheffield was a major d-bag.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think there is a very good chance that Lawrie does not play in the bigs if he stays with the Brewers this year making anything he would or could do irrelevant.

[Never Outhustled]

I think there is a very good chance that Lawrie does not play in the bigs if he stays with the Brewers this year making anything he would or could do irrelevant.

Lawrie would have been called up before Green was. If the Breweers kept Lawrie, McGehee would have likely been dealt for pitching, with a stopgap playing 3rd until Lawrie was ready, which was back in May. Problem was, Melvin overvalued McGehee, while others team properly valued him, limiting his trade value. Hopefully Marcum helps us win the WS this year, then it won't bother me.

 

[istanbultaye]

Perhaps I am mistaken, but, wasn't Lawrie playing 2nd base? And if he was playing 2nd base, then he likely would have continued to do so, while Taylor Green played 3rd, and so Lawrie would have been stuck behind Weeks. And, if Green had to hit to the tune of a 1.000 OPS at AAA for basically the whole year, I presume that Lawrie would have had to do the same, even if he had been playing 3rd base, since even if the brewers had traded McGehee for a 'stopgap' the stopgap would likely have played as well as Casey did during the first half, if not better, and they would have preferred to keep the gritty veteran instead of calling up a rookie.

[Never Outhustled]

Perhaps I am mistaken, but, wasn't Lawrie playing 2nd base? And if he was playing 2nd base, then he likely would have continued to do so, while Taylor Green played 3rd, and so Lawrie would have been stuck behind Weeks. And, if Green had to hit to the tune of a 1.000 OPS at AAA for basically the whole year, I presume that Lawrie would have had to do the same, even if he had been playing 3rd base, since even if the brewers had traded McGehee for a 'stopgap' the stopgap would likely have played as well as Casey did during the first half, if not better, and they would have preferred to keep the gritty veteran instead of calling up a rookie.

Lawrie would have been moved to 3rd the second Weeks signed his extension. Don't forget that Taylor Green started the season at AA, he didn't get bumped to AAA until Zealous Wheeler was injured.

 

The Brewers believed in Lawrie more than they do Green. I love Green, but he is simply isn't in the same stratosphere as a prospect as Lawrie. The fact that Green was behind Zealous Wheeler tells us exactly what the Brewers thought of Green when the season opened.

 

[endaround]

Or that Green was coming off a long rehab process and they didn't want to push him until he was ready

[Never Outhustled]

Or that Green was coming off a long rehab process and they didn't want to push him until he was ready

 

 

You got your seasons mixed up, that was last year when he was coming off his 2nd surgery.

[thebruce44]

Or that Green was coming off a long rehab process and they didn't want to push him until he was ready

 

 

You got your seasons mixed up, that was last year when he was coming off his 2nd surgery.

The injury he suffered often takes a full year to recover from so endaround was correct in that he was coming off a long rehab process.

[bullox]

And, if Green had to hit to the tune of a 1.000 OPS at AAA for basically the whole year, I presume that Lawrie would have had to do the same

Lawrie had a 1.076 OPS in 329 AAA plate attempts this year.

[Never Outhustled]

Or that Green was coming off a long rehab process and they didn't want to push him until he was ready

 

You got your seasons mixed up, that was last year when he was coming off his 2nd surgery.

The injury he suffered often takes a full year to recover from so endaround was correct in that he was coming off a long rehab process.

 

Hamate breaks can take a full year to regain strength in the wrist. That was Green's 1st procedure. We're 3 years removed from that. The 2nd surgery was an uncommon procedure with no history to base a recovery time for.

[Never Outhustled]

And, if Green had to hit to the tune of a 1.000 OPS at AAA for basically the whole year, I presume that Lawrie would have had to do the same

Lawrie had a 1.076 OPS in 329 AAA plate attempts this year.

 

Yes, Lawrie was dominant from the beginning. He is a Fielder/Braun caliber prospect, and likely would have been called up as quick as Braun was.