Toronto calls up Lawrie

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't know if Mike Adams was a 'prospect' anymore, but he was shipped to the Mets for Jeremi Gonzalez in 2006, and look how that turned out.

 

Michael Brantley's having a decent (101 OPS+) year in Cleveland, though I suspect we're not feeling that sting because of Morgan. Still, there is a big age difference, and Brantley at 24 certainly has room for improvement, and he's showing at least some marginal power this year (7 homeruns). I don't at all think he's perennial all star material, but he looks like he could be a starting caliber big league CF for the foreseeable future.

 

LaPorta is scuffling a bit, he's got 10 homers, but his OBP has dipped below .300. Can't be getting a .700 OPS out of your 1B. I'm hoping he can turn it around, but he might not get a lot of playing time if he can't get that OBP up to at least mediocre levels.

 

De la Rosa had a few decent seasons in Colorado, but nothing special, and I don't think anyone's losing sleep over him not being a Brewer these days.

 

Cruz........yeah, that stings a little bit, but he was old, and as someone else said, he actually passed waivers in Texas, and nobody claimed him. Apparently, Doug wasn't the only one who thought Cruz wasn't a viable major league player. His rise to prominence wasn't all that predictable. His minor league strikeout numbers were atrocious. I don't put much, if any stock into strikeout rates, but at the minor league level, a strikeout rate as high as he had could be predictive as to how a guy might struggle at the big league level.

 

Joe Thatcher had a couple really good years as a loogy for SD, but is hurt this year. In hindsight, I'd say with the production that Thatcher has shown that that trade would be a net loss. Inman still hasn't cracked a big league roster (6.06 ERA this year in the PCL) and Garrison I see has pitched a grand total of 2/3rds of an inning at the bigs for the Yankees this year. His minor league numbers don't look all that special.

 

 

So yeah, it's safe to say that it doesn't look like Melvin has ever traded away a future superstar. The Greinke trade........time will tell. I really hated to lose Cain, but again, Morgan has eased some of that sting this year.

 

On the flip side of the coin though, some of the big name prospects that the Brewers have traded for, likewise, haven't really panned out. Jose Capellan had one semi-productive year for us out of the bullpen. I don't really know if Overbay and Capuano were 'prospects' at the point the Crew acquired them. I can't really think of any other 'prospects' the Brewers traded for that were highly touted. I know at one point Helms was one of the Braves top prospects, but he was certainly not a prospect at the point the Crew acquired him.

[jjfanec]

Brantley has played more LF than CF this year and I remember reading he was not much of a CFer. If that is true could you imagine him out there with Hart and Braun!

[thebruce44]

I agree with the premise but to be fair DM has typically traded for prospects in his tenure here as opposed to trading them away. And when he has traded prospects, the other team has often had their pick of several players instead of Doug shipping off the ones he knows won't be stars.

What prospects have we traded for since DM became GM?

Chad Petty, Noochie Varner, Wes Obemueller, Alejandro Machado, Greg Bruso, Mike Crudale, Overbay, Cappy, Moeller, De La Rosa, Villanueva, Glenn Woolard, ect.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/gm-trade-histor.html

Here is the whole list. Its way too long to type here.

[jjfanec]

I agree with the premise but to be fair DM has typically traded for prospects in his tenure here as opposed to trading them away. And when he has traded prospects, the other team has often had their pick of several players instead of Doug shipping off the ones he knows won't be stars.

What prospects have we traded for since DM became GM?

Chad Petty, Noochie Varner, Wes Obemueller, Alejandro Machado, Greg Bruso, Mike Crudale, Overbay, Cappy, Moeller, De La Rosa, Villanueva, Glenn Woolard, ect.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/gm-trade-histor.html

Here is the whole list. Its way too long to type here.

Almost all those trades were before this team was competitive. Since they have become a playoff contender he has definitely not been one to trade for prospects. Even the Carlos Lee trade was for major leaguers.

[thebruce44]

What prospects have we traded for since DM became GM?

Chad Petty, Noochie Varner, Wes Obemueller, Alejandro Machado, Greg Bruso, Mike Crudale, Overbay, Cappy, Moeller, De La Rosa, Villanueva, Glenn Woolard, ect.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/gm-trade-histor.html

Here is the whole list. Its way too long to type here.

Almost all those trades were before this team was competitive. Since they have become a playoff contender he has definitely not been one to trade for prospects. Even the Carlos Lee trade was for major leaguers.

Then shouldn't your post have been "what prospects have we traded for since we have been competitive?"

 

The original premise of my post was that I don't think you can say DM is good at trading away prospects who wont do much and that in his time here he has typically traded for prospects. It seems like you are disagreeing with this but I can't really tell why or what you are disputing.

[reillymcshane]

Gotta give Lawrie credit - he's mashing in the bigs. 6 doubles, 4 triples, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 1.072 OPS, .381 OBP, 4 SB - all in 97 ABs.

 

It's a small sample, but getting big enough to show he can be really special. And he's only 21. Jays fans have to be excited about watching him play in the future.

[tigerbrew]

Gotta give Lawrie credit - he's mashing in the bigs. 6 doubles, 4 triples, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 1.072 OPS, .381 OBP, 4 SB - all in 97 ABs.

 

It's a small sample, but getting big enough to show he can be really special. And he's only 21. Jays fans have to be excited about watching him play in the future.

 

Plus Lawrie is Canadian, that has to add to excitement for Jays fans.

[Raw Biz]

Gotta give Lawrie credit - he's mashing in the bigs. 6 doubles, 4 triples, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 1.072 OPS, .381 OBP, 4 SB - all in 97 ABs.

 

It's a small sample, but getting big enough to show he can be really special. And he's only 21. Jays fans have to be excited about watching him play in the future.

As big of a tool that he seemed like from his facebook pictures (though to be fair, he was like 19-20), I was always a big fan of what he did on the field. I'm glad we got Marcum, as we wouldn't be where we are now without him, but it would be nice to have Lawrie manning the hot corner for the next 6 years. Although with Roenicke, he probably wouldn't even have been called up and/or played.

[DHonks]

Actually, Lawrie would probably be playing 2b and we'd be wondering why he hadn't tried 3b or 1b, much like we did with Farris

[BrewCrewForever]

Love that we have Marcum, but Lawrie has a chance to be a very special player. But as they say, you have to give something up to get something back.

 

Flags fly forever.

[jjfanec]

Lawrie has been a beast. Looks like a solid trade for both sides. In Marcum's last 5 starts he has went 34 2/3 innings giving up just 4 ER, 20 H, 10 BB

[Roderick]

Joe Thatcher had a couple really good years as a loogy for SD, but is hurt this year. In hindsight, I'd say with the production that Thatcher has shown that that trade would be a net loss.

The Brewers received comp pick(s) for Linebrink, right? What did he(they) turn out to be?

[reillymcshane]

Joe Thatcher had a couple really good years as a loogy for SD, but is hurt this year. In hindsight, I'd say with the production that Thatcher has shown that that trade would be a net loss.

The Brewers received comp pick(s) for Linebrink, right? What did he(they) turn out to be?

I think one was Cutter Dykstra - who turned into Nyjer Morgan. Not 100% sure, but I think this was the case. not sure who the other pick was.

[TheCrew07]

Chad Petty, Noochie Varner, Wes Obemueller, Alejandro Machado, Greg Bruso, Mike Crudale, Overbay, Cappy, Moeller, De La Rosa, Villanueva, Glenn Woolard, ect.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/gm-trade-histor.html

Here is the whole list. Its way too long to type here.

That's a laughable defense of Melvin... the best players on that list weren't actually prospects anymore when they were acquired... Overbay, Cappy, Moeller, Obemueller.... the only potential impact player on that entire list talent wise was JDLR., the best performer stat wise was Cappy. Pointing to trades of incredibly midling prospects as proof that Melvin does indeed trade for young talent is disingenuous at best. It's like pointing to Wolf as proof his FA pitching acquisitions have been successful on the whole. It's as silly a claim as when Chase Wright was acquired to provide quality starting pitching depth. I really like Villy, always have, he's one of the few soft tossers I've ever gotten behind, but he overachieved his prospect status by a wide margin, look who we traded for him.

 

I've basically said all I've had to say about the way Melvin cycles talent in 100s of previous posts. I think acquiring Morgan for Dykstra saved the season, and he basically stole K-Rod for peanuts. Short of that he's usually overpaid talent wise to acquire the name the players he's gone after, people will try to circularly justify the trades, especially if they happen to like Melvin. Objectively, there's simply no way Marcum and Lawrie was an even deal talent wise, I posted it at the time, and I still believe it now, and this is coming from a poster that always thought Marcum should have been the focus of the Overbay deal with Toronto. Again, he's one of the few soft tossers I've ever latched onto, though when I latched onto him he was throwing significantly harder than he is now.

 

People are going to believe what they want to believe, but trading for warm bodies or players with high floors isn't the same as trading for young talent.... to trade for young talent the player actually has to possess talent, he has to have a high ceiling. We haven't traded for any young impact talent since the Sexson deal and 1 player in that deal had the talent to be an all-star caliber player year in and year out, that was JDLR. All the rest of the players were league average stop gaps just pushing the club towards respectability while we waited for the cavalry from our minor league system to arrive.

[lukevan]

It really must not be fun for you to be a Brewer fan.

 

If DM would've followed your model, 2008 and 2011 would never have been playoff seasons. For me, if we stink again in 5 years, so be it.

[endaround]

Yes, yes if we discount all the young players Melvin traded for he has never traded for young players.

[Invader3K]

I hope Lawrie has a great career for Toronto, but I'd still do the trade for Marcum every time. With Lawrie on this team as a mid-season callup and a Dave Bush type instead of Marcum, we don't make the playoffs this year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I hope Lawrie has a great career for Toronto, but I'd still do the trade for Marcum every time. With Lawrie on this team as a mid-season callup and a Dave Bush type instead of Marcum, we don't make the playoffs this year.

The difference between Marcum and Estrada is almost assuredly not 9 1/2 wins.

 

 

EDIT: Because I didn't want to figure out what the difference would be between Estrada and some other random pitcher. So I decided instead to just replace Marcum with a Dave Bush type. A 5.25 ERA in those 176.1 innings results in 40 more runs allowed, or, 4 less wins, on average. We'd still be standing, in theory, 6 games ahead of the Cards.

[endaround]

I hope Lawrie has a great career for Toronto, but I'd still do the trade for Marcum every time. With Lawrie on this team as a mid-season callup and a Dave Bush type instead of Marcum, we don't make the playoffs this year.

The difference between Marcum and Estrada is almost assuredly not 9 1/2 wins.

 

 

EDIT: Because I didn't want to figure out what the difference would be between Estrada and some other random pitcher. So I decided instead to just replace Marcum with a Dave Bush type. A 5.25 ERA in those 176.1 innings results in 40 more runs allowed, or, 4 less wins, on average. We'd still be standing, in theory, 6 games ahead of the Cards.

Well yes, except the Brewers on a talent basis aren't 10 wins better than the Cardinals right now. There is almost no difference between the Cardinals and Brewers except luck and perhaps Axford.

[Invader3K]

It's tough to summarize things like that, because it doesn't factor in stuff like additional usage of the bullpen. Plus, how much better do we look going into the playoffs with Marcum instead of Bush or Estrada in the rotation?

[Never Outhustled]

Its tough to say without Marcum we'd have some scrub. If we kept Lawrie, we might have dealt McGehee. Then Melvin would look smart. We could have picked up Brandon McCarthy for almost nothing, as I requested numerous times. Lawrie is a potential Braun type hitter. OK deal for Milwaukee, but a franchise changing move for Toronto.

[Roderick]

Joe Thatcher had a couple really good years as a loogy for SD, but is hurt this year. In hindsight, I'd say with the production that Thatcher has shown that that trade would be a net loss.

The Brewers received comp pick(s) for Linebrink, right? What did he(they) turn out to be?

I think one was Cutter Dykstra - who turned into Nyjer Morgan. Not 100% sure, but I think this was the case. not sure who the other pick was.

Well if that is the case, I guess I would tangentially call the Linebrink (Morgan) for Thatcher/Inman/Garrison as a net win.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers received comp pick(s) for Linebrink, right? What did he(they) turn out to be?

I think one was Cutter Dykstra - who turned into Nyjer Morgan. Not 100% sure, but I think this was the case. not sure who the other pick was.

Well if that is the case, I guess I would tangentially call the Linebrink (Morgan) for Thatcher/Inman/Garrison as a net win.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

Truthfully the Morgan deal was a salary/character dump by Washington.

[CheezWizHed]

Sorry, DM. Washington was just trying to get rid of Morgan, so you don't get credit for jumping in and buying low on the guy.

 

K-Rod was a salary dump. Doesn't make either one of them worse trades from our end. A GM that takes advantage of another team's needs for his own team's benefit is a good thing.

[thebruce44]

Chad Petty, Noochie Varner, Wes Obemueller, Alejandro Machado, Greg Bruso, Mike Crudale, Overbay, Cappy, Moeller, De La Rosa, Villanueva, Glenn Woolard, ect.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/gm-trade-histor.html

Here is the whole list. Its way too long to type here.

That's a laughable defense of Melvin... the best players on that list weren't actually prospects anymore when they were acquired... Overbay, Cappy, Moeller, Obemueller.... the only potential impact player on that entire list talent wise was JDLR., the best performer stat wise was Cappy. Pointing to trades of incredibly midling prospects as proof that Melvin does indeed trade for young talent is disingenuous at best. It's like pointing to Wolf as proof his FA pitching acquisitions have been successful on the whole. It's as silly a claim as when Chase Wright was acquired to provide quality starting pitching depth. I really like Villy, always have, he's one of the few soft tossers I've ever gotten behind, but he overachieved his prospect status by a wide margin, look who we traded for him.

 

I've basically said all I've had to say about the way Melvin cycles talent in 100s of previous posts. I think acquiring Morgan for Dykstra saved the season, and he basically stole K-Rod for peanuts. Short of that he's usually overpaid talent wise to acquire the name the players he's gone after, people will try to circularly justify the trades, especially if they happen to like Melvin. Objectively, there's simply no way Marcum and Lawrie was an even deal talent wise, I posted it at the time, and I still believe it now, and this is coming from a poster that always thought Marcum should have been the focus of the Overbay deal with Toronto. Again, he's one of the few soft tossers I've ever latched onto, though when I latched onto him he was throwing significantly harder than he is now.

 

People are going to believe what they want to believe, but trading for warm bodies or players with high floors isn't the same as trading for young talent.... to trade for young talent the player actually has to possess talent, he has to have a high ceiling. We haven't traded for any young impact talent since the Sexson deal and 1 player in that deal had the talent to be an all-star caliber player year in and year out, that was JDLR. All the rest of the players were league average stop gaps just pushing the club towards respectability while we waited for the cavalry from our minor league system to arrive.

I'm glad my silly and laughable defense of Melvin brightened your day. However, if you had followed my posts you would have realized I wasn't defending Melvin.

I was simply stating that in general he has traded for prospects as opposed to sending them away, never mentioning if that was a positive or a negative in terms of how I view his overall performance. If you want to qualify that by the quality of the prospects he has brought back go for it, I was just providing the raw numbers. Interpret them and disqualify certain players by your arbitrary rules all you want, it doesn't effect that overall list or his intentions at the time of those trades.