Division Race

[jpat]

Alright, so we have the day off today and we're nine games into an 18 game stretch against all division opponents. Outside of the Cardinals and the Phillies (one series in September), I don't think we're slated to face one more team who is currently at .500 or better. As I'm sure you know, we're 3.5 games ahead of the Cardinals, 6.5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7.5 games ahead of the Reds.

What do you think of the division race? Is it down to the last two horses? Or are the Bucs/Reds still in this thing?

Sidenote: I'm currently in an argument at work (I work in Chicago) with a Cubs fan who insists that the Pirates are still in the race and that he expects their pitching to continue perform as they have all season. It's driving me insane to keep hearing how our domination of the Pirates over the past few years doesn't matter. Or how it's just as likely that the Bucs sweep the Brewers as the Brewers sweeping the Bucs in their next series. Tell me I'm not crazy.

[Ennder]

The Pirates were never realistically in it and still aren't. The Reds could still factor in things but it would take a really strong hot streak to do it.

[StearnsFTW]

Alright, so we have the day off today and we're nine games into an 18 game stretch against all division opponents. Outside of the Cardinals and the Phillies (one series in September), I don't think we're slated to face one more team who is currently at .500 or better. As I'm sure you know, we're 3.5 games ahead of the Cardinals, 6.5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7.5 games ahead of the Reds.

What do you think of the division race? Is it down to the last two horses? Or are the Bucs/Reds still in this thing?

Sidenote: I'm currently in an argument at work (I work in Chicago) with a Cubs fan who insists that the Pirates are still in the race and that he expects their pitching to continue perform as they have all season. It's driving me insane to keep hearing how our domination of the Pirates over the past few years doesn't matter. Or how it's just as likely that the Bucs sweep the Brewers as the Brewers sweeping the Bucs in their next series. Tell me I'm not crazy.

I would be very very confident betting that the Brewers finish 10 games ahead of the Pirates.

 

It's a two horse race. I would say there's a less than 2% chance of anyone other than The Brewers or Cardinals winning the division. Haven't looked it up yet, but that's my guess.

[LS Brewer]

It's a two horse race. I would say there's a less than 2% chance of anyone other than The Brewers or Cardinals winning the division

 

 

In fact, Baseball Prospectus says there is an approximately 3.1% chance of someone other than the Brewers or Cardinals winning the division.

[Warning Track Power]

(Just going off of my gut and no statistical analysis about players and schedules)

 

I'm not quite ready to count Cincinnati out yet. They have had terrible years from most every starter not named Johnny Cueto. Arroyo, Wood, Volquez have been awful. Bailey has finally looked like he may reach his potential but he's still relatively unproven. Leake has been a strong #4 or #5. Wood and Volquez may just be experiencing a Sophomore Slump and a still recovering from TJ Surgery but Arroyo looks more and more like Jeff Suppan. Leake may develop into the #3 but I think that is probably a more realistic goal for 2012 and 2013.

 

The talent on offense is obviously there and if just 1 of Volquez/Wood/Arroyo manage to turn back into the 2010 version of themselves or a #2 SP, I could see them catching fire at some point and rattling off a 16 of 20 streak. Combining a renewed #2 with Cueto at #1, Bailey at #3, Leake at #4 and Willis #5 is a good, deep staff. Cincinnati scares me...a lot.

[jpat]

Part of my conversation with my co-worker was just something I came up with off the top of my head, but I told him that I bet there wasn't another team in the past 20 years, who was at least 6.5 games back at this point in the year AND was in 3rd place. I later wrote this email to him as a follow-up:

I found a couple of comebacks in the past 20 years that fit most of the criteria:

2. 2007 New York Mets

They led by seven games on Sept. 12, and with Pedro Martinez back on the mound after missing the first five months rehabbing a torn rotator cuff, New York was a big favorite in a weak National League field. Then the bottom fell out as the Mets lost five in a row, then won four of five, then lost six of their final seven to finish the season one game behind the surging Philadelphia Phillies, who swept a three-game series at Shea Stadium in mid-September. An aging pitching staff and a terrible bullpen caught up with the Mets. Tom Glavine, who won his 300th game earlier in the season, lost on the final day, giving up seven earned runs in one-third of an inning of a 9-1 loss to the Florida Marlins.

3. 1995 California Angels

The Angels led by 11.5 games on Aug. 9 but blew it, going 12-27 in their final 39 games and allowing the Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs for the first time. The Angels won their final five to force a one-game playoff with the Mariners, but Seattle ace Randy Johnson put the Angels out of their misery with a 9-1 win. Seattle stunned New York in the first year of the Division Series round, then lost to Cleveland in the American League Championship Series.

http://baseball.about.com.../tp/pennantcollapses.htm

Like I said, it’s not impossible, but incredibly unlikely. When the Mets lost their lead, they did it in less time with a slightly larger lead, but the Phillies were in 2nd place on September 12. When the Angels lost their lead, they had a bigger lead, but again, the Mariners were in 2nd place on August 9. So while it’s possible, it hasn’t happened in the last 20 years. There’s no reason for me to reasonably believe they still have a legit shot.

Anyway, just wanted to talk a little more on this subject with someone who isn't directly interested in seeing the Brewers lose.

[dlk9s]

No, it's not out of the question for Pittsburgh or Cincy to make a run, but realistically, I think it's down to Milwaukee and St. Louis.

 

While I don't thumb my nose at the Pirates, I'm not concerned about them at this point. As for Cincy, the thing that team has going for it is its weak schedule. The thing is, I just don't think they can make up all those games. For math's sake, let's just take that half game out and say they are 7 back with 50 left. If the Brewers go .500, which I think we'd all consider disappointing, the Reds would have to go 32-18 in those final 50 just to tie. I don't see it. If the Brewers go just a bit over .500, say 27-23, that mean's the Reds would have to go 34-16. I just don't think they have that kind of run in them.

[sdcheezhd]

Coolstandings has the Reds at 11.9% to win the division (14.3 to make the playoffs) and the Pirates at 6.6 and 7.5

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Unlike the other teams in the division, the Bucs had a tough stretch waiting for them on their schedule. It's been a great story, but they had a favorable schedule early. To their credit, they are a better team than anyone thought and they've played well...especially the pitching, but .500 is their bogey.

 

The Reds remind me of the last couple of Brewers teams...some select talent, but injuries and a couple holes in the pitching staff keeping them from hitting full potential. I could see them passing one, but not both teams. The Cards & Brewers play each other a bunch...one could get hot. The Reds only have 3 each vs. those two. Tough for both to fade when they are playing each other and have a bunch of games vs. the dregs.

 

I think it's Cards vs. the Brewers. The injury to Rickie & the Cards recent upgrades make these teams very even.

[StearnsFTW]

It's a two horse race. I would say there's a less than 2% chance of anyone other than The Brewers or Cardinals winning the division

 

 

In fact, Baseball Prospectus says there is an approximately 3.1% chance of someone other than the Brewers or Cardinals winning the division.

Darn it, too confident........thanks for doing the legwork for me....