Simulated Final Record

[rluzinski]

Just threw this together real quick. I used Baseball Prospectus's "3rd Order Win Percentage" for an estimated talent level for the Brewers and their remaining opponents. You can find them here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

I get a .474 SOS, meaning an average team would win about 85 games against them over 162 games. The Astros and Cubs are brutally bad and, despite their average record, the Pirates aren't far behind. Brewers are .526 (85 win team).

Anyway, here is what I get when I simulate the rest of the season:

http://i53.tinypic.com/k21fsh.gif

Average number of expected wins is 89.5. The gives the Brewers around 75% chance of making the playoffs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Better than 50% chance of winning 90......I'll take it.

 

90 should be a pretty sure bet to make it into the playoffs.

[chadomac]

I like those odds, too. I did a very scientific run-through of the last two months and have them winning 87 or 88 games, and I think that will be enough to win the division. I'd love to be wrong and win more, of course.

[rluzinski]

I like those odds, too. I did a very scientific run-through of the last two months and have them winning 87 or 88 games, and I think that will be enough to win the division. I'd love to be wrong and win more, of course.

I have to say, I was surprised to see their odds so high, as they've barely outscored their opponents. But a soft schedule plus good secondary stats suggests they should do well.