Runner on 2nd in late tie games question

[danzig6767]

I'm not posting this as blame for the loss tonight, but as an observation as a whole and it came to play tonight.

 

On that Berkman flare, there were two outs and Holliday on secondbase. I know some wanted him walked to face Schumaker instead with firstbase open and i was wanting to see it even with two strikes on him, but that's a different question. So Berkman makes contact on a quality changeup by Estrada which falls perfectly in between Yuni/Braun and that ended up winning the game.

 

My question there though was why wasn't Braun and all three outfielders playing more shallow? I also wonder the same thing when this often arises in other similar situations whether it's the Brewers or another team. Once you hit the 9th inning with a tie game through extra innings, in the vast majority of cases, the next run wins the game. Well, with a runner on secondbase, he's going to end up scoring way more times on a single than an extra base hit.

 

If outfielders though aren't playing shallow, it not only increases the chances of a flare/bloop hit falling in for the winning run as happened tonight, it significantly reduces the odds of an outfielder having any chance to throw the runner out at the plate on say a harder hit grounder which simply finds some hole through the infield. Sure, the flip side to playing pretty shallow is that a well hit ball will end up going over an outfielders head for a run scoring double and it makes it tougher to run down a ball hit in the gaps, but the odds of that happening strike me as a noticeably less than a flare or ground ball single getting to the outfield.

 

Once a baserunner reached second like Holliday did in that tie game situation, it seems to me that the best odds for preventing that baserunner from scoring would be to always play the outfielders a lot more shallow than in any other situation, even if a power bat is up. Am i alone in thinking this and/or often wondering why when seeing highlights of a game winning flare or groundball single to the outfield, that the outfielder wasn't playing more shallow to at least have a chance to throw the runner out at the plate or to get to the flare before it dropped?

[logan82]

My guess is that Holliday is a slow runner so even a single wouldn't score him in most cases. They were defending against the XBH. I think if that is a clean single Holliday gets held at 3B. They only needed one out.

[pitchleague]

If outfielders though aren't playing shallow, it not only increases the chances of a flare/bloop hit falling in for the winning run as happened tonight, it significantly reduces the odds of an outfielder having any chance to throw the runner out at the plate on say a harder hit grounder which simply finds some hole through the infield. Sure, the flip side to playing pretty shallow is that a well hit ball will end up going over an outfielders head for a run scoring double and it makes it tougher to run down a ball hit in the gaps, but the odds of that happening strike me as a noticeably less than a flare or ground ball single getting to the outfield.

Yeah, in the situation here a double to gap is going to score the run anyways, so I can see why you might want to play more shallow than normal with a slow-ish runner on 2nd and 2 outs with a base open in extra innings. Of course, you gotta hope that your pitcher is pitching around the batter and not giving him anything to hit. And if the batter does hit one hard, a fly ball to the track that would normally be a catch for the 3rd out could end up dropping in if your outfielders are playing shallow.

[danzig6767]

My guess is that Holliday is a slow runner so even a single wouldn't score him in most cases. They were defending against the XBH. I think if that is a clean single Holliday gets held at 3B. They only needed one out.

I was asking more an in general question, not just tonight because once in awhile i'll see a team play their OF significantly more shallow in these type of situations, but more times than not the outfielders end up being to deep to have a pretty realistic chance to throw out a runner at the plate on a ground ball single or to prevent flare singles from falling.

 

As for just tonight, looking at how deep Braun was playing, unless a groundball single which got through the infield was hit like a rocket and directly at him, i think Holliday scores fairly easily because Braun was to far back to to charge a grounder and get a throw off to the plate before Holliday scores. Same with say a grounder that got through the middle. With Morgan not having a plus arm, in the time that it would have taken him to long to charge a single up the middle and then get a throw off which would have any sort of legit chance to throw out Holliday. Hart may have had a chance on a single, but with his inaccurate arm, it's likely futile either way.

[dlk9s]

I think in last night's situation specifically, it really all depends on what cleats Holliday is wearing. If he's wearing the special edition Ty Cobb attack spikes, then he's scoring from second regardless, so outfield positioning doesn't matter.

[Baldkin]

As for just tonight, looking at how deep Braun was playing, unless a groundball single which got through the infield was hit like a rocket and directly at him, i think Holliday scores fairly easily because Braun was to far back to to charge a grounder and get a throw off to the plate before Holliday scores. Same with say a grounder that got through the middle. With Morgan not having a plus arm, in the time that it would have taken him to long to charge a single up the middle and then get a throw off which would have any sort of legit chance to throw out Holliday. Hart may have had a chance on a single, but with his inaccurate arm, it's likely futile either way.

They were really playing for the best chance of catching the flyball, as opposed to getting him out on a hit. Although, I don't think Braun ever changes where he is positioned by more than two feet based on the situation (just one of my pet peeves after watching 4 or 5 two out doubles with a guy on first go over his head this year).

[DougJones43]

The Brewers still had to defend against the Cards scoring more than 1 run in the inning as well, since they were going to get a chance in the bottom to tie or take the lead. If the Cards had been the home team (meaning 1 run ends the game and any additional runs would be meaningless), I think the outfield may have been more shallow.