Cardinals' grassy-knollers are out..... [Update, reply #222: Molina suspended for five games]

[StearnsFTW]

They look like a pretty decent bunch to me, but what do I know? I've got dementia.

Ironically, I agree.

 

They all seem to think TLR is a deutschebanke too.

 

I give them a lot of respect for admitting/recognizing that fact.

[Funketown]

Edit: Double posts are silly. They're pretty much a statistical impossibility.

[adamb100]

Clearly other teams are stealing our signs when we play them on the road.

[endaround]

TLR made an official complaint about the light ribbon last night. Classy!

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/126621998.html

[splitterpfj]

I've got a lot of friends in southern Missouri....they're all diehard Cardinals fans...and they laugh at LaRussa all the time. Among the Cardinals fans I know, Dave Duncan is brilliant...Tony LaRussa is tolerated.

 

A lot of them blamed LaRussa for Scott Rolen's departure, which made them none too happy.

[YoGasKpose]

That JS Online article was hilarious.

 

Lighting around home plate? Wow.

 

Of course, that smells to me like it's more of a "Crazy, Imitation Sun Tzu Psych Out Tactic" than anything resembling a legitimate complaint. Someone should mail old Tony some night vision goggles to up the ante...

[Hammer]

Can't say much since we are the beer state but someone should also send LaRussa an alphabet chart for his next DUI http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[homer]

Basically, any time the Cards lose it's because the other team cheated. Got it.

[logan82]

TLR made an official complaint about the light ribbon last night. Classy!

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/126621998.html

I seem to remember another team complaining about the lights as well.

[theavrock]

I'll just say it because no one else has yet.

 

Well of course it was bright to LaRussa. Imagine how intense everything is when you're drunk.

 

Surprised that he didn't complain about the music being too loud or the fans being too close to the field.

[bill hAll Star]

http://gatewayredbirds.co...php?f=1&t=46600&start=10

 

What happened to the guy with all the statistical proof that said there was only one explanation and it was sign-stealing?

[bill hAll Star]

I think McGwire should have been the one who approached the league and umps about the cheating.

[brettac1]

What exactly was the Carpenter's son story, again? Was that the deal after the brawl?

[cwolf2012]

"What exactly was the Carpenter's son story, again? Was that the deal after the brawl? "

 

I believe that was a quote from him after they brawled.

 

"How will I explain this to my son?"

[TheRealMattKain]

So what is going on with the home/road splits? I thought it might be fun to look into this a little deeper.

Runs per Game at Home vs. Runs per Game on the Road
Below is a list of each team's runs per game at home and on the road and the percent increase from the lower to the higher.

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/bmp/0fd15b9c8d65dd32b0fbc6839c65641272b2859.bmp

Are the Brewers numbers so skewed that they must be cheating?
Based on the numbers above, the Brewers are scoring about 32% more runs at home than they are on the road. This is high, but not improbable. Teams playing in traditional hitters parks are seeing similar jumps (Texas scores 34% more at home, Colorado 37%). Similarly teams in pitcher's parks are seeing similar jumps when they go on the road (Tampa 36% more on the road, SF 29%, SD 26%). It's also important to mention that these numbers only show differences. A huge difference in home and road splits could be due to park factors, over-performance in one setting, under-performance in one setting, random variation, or who knows what. Note that Oakland plays in a pitcher's park yet scores 22% more runs at home than on the road. They must be stealing signs too.

2011 Team Results vs. Expected Results
Now if the Brewers *were* stealing signs at home then we'd expect to see performance similar to the predicted results on the road and a huge increase from predicted results to actual results at home. In 2010 the Brewers were 4th in the league in Runs per Game. In 2011, the following happened:
-The top 5 offensive players (Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, and McGehee) all returned.
-The starting catcher would be entering his sophomore year and age 25 season where one would expect improvements in offensive stats.
-The starting center fielder returned.
-The worst offensive player, Escobar, was replaced with Betancourt. Although Betancourt is in no way remarkable, his offensive track record implied that he would out-perform Escobar's 2010 offensive numbers.

Based on on this, it's fair to say that one would expect the Brewers' run production to be near the top of the league in 2011. Again, let's look at the numbers. In 2011, the Brewers are 3rd in the league in Runs per Game at Home. Nothing unexpected there. However, on the Road the Brewers are 15th (!!) in Runs per Game. Far, far below reasonable expectations. What this implies is not[/i] that the Brewers are scoring a ridiculous amount of runs at home, but rather[/i] they are scoring an improbably low number of runs on the road.

2010 Individual Results vs. Expected Results
The same as above, if the Brewers were cheating at home, then we'd expect to see several players with unexpected and potentially suspicious inflated offensive numbers since individuals would be getting this huge home field boost. Below are OPS+ ZiPS projections and the actual results from 2011 for Brewers with 200 PA (I threw in Kotsay who has 199).
http://images.yuku.com/image/bmp/7601579a8269da32bfe82796b1b788d75b51f7a.bmp
6 brewers are exceeding their ZiPS projections, 4 are below their projections. Braun and Fielder are having awesome years. Not shocking - they're offensive superstars. No Brewer is having a ridiculous outlier season (other than McGehee who is suddenly terrible) and Morgan who has been pretty good in a small number of PAs. All of the overall results seem attainable.

Conclusion
It actually appears that team offensive numbers look pretty reasonable. If anything, the Brewers' offense is performing abnormally terrible on the road (rather than abnormally amazing at home).

The way I see it one of two things is happening:
-Due to random variance over roughly 50 home games and 50 road games the Brewers' offense is performing about as one would expect at home and terrible on the road.
-All other teams have joined together and are cheating when the Brewers come to town. This is most likely done by using mirrors to shine light into the eyes of Brewers' batters just like in the movie Back to School. In fact, based on my research I think we can all agree that it's almost statistically impossible for other teams not to be cheating when the Brewers are on the road.

 

 

[brettac1]

"What exactly was the Carpenter's son story, again? Was that the deal after the brawl? "

 

I believe that was a quote from him after they brawled.

 

"How will I explain this to my son?"

Ah, ok. That's what I thought.

[cwolf2012]

TheRealMattKain, please check your PMs.

[pitchleague]

hey, guys, I don't know if anybody has noticed this yet, so keep it hush-hush. Garcia is having trouble locating his pitches and keeping them up in the zone tonight because they finally got the mound rubber hydraulics working again. Hopefully, TLR won't notice until the 8th inning or so and we can take advantage!

[ilovebeer]

Maybe all the teams are staying at the Phister and that ghost is putting them under a spell.

[Funketown]

Maybe all the teams are staying at the Phister and that ghost is putting them under a spell.

In all seriousness, I'd be nearly as willing to believe that as some of TLR's claims.

[DuWayne Steurer]

For the record, all I did was go over there and read. I didn't sign up to troll. That's not my style (anymore. Destroying the ESPN Giants board back in 2001-2002 was enough for me).

 

ANYways, it seems like just about any fan base, most of the guys over there seem pretty reasonable, and then there's a few going off the deep end, and the one nut with the Simpson avatar who can come to no conclusion but cheating. There is no other explanation.

 

So were the Brewers not stealing signs in innings 1-4, when Carp 1 hit them? I'm not sure, and I just want to be clear.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Oh, and I will say, speaking from a guy who goes to the games, the ribbon boards absolutely do influence the brightness in the stadium. I don't know (obviously) if there's any discernable affect on a hitter, but depending on what ad is up, it makes a difference. I never really noticed if they had the 'brighter' ads up while the Brewers were batting though.

[berniebrewer4life]

If we are stealing signs, we need to start doing it on the road, obviously.

[Funketown]

"BTW, I don't know why since everyone knows they are cheating anyway, but I actually did take the time to calculate a p value for jim, which was 0.057 through 50 home and 50 road games for the Brewers, after a generous allowance of 18.6% inflation of runs at home in Miller Park.

 

So yeah, admittedly only a 95% certainty that they are cheating."

 

Uhhh...Yeah, that's sound statistical analysis. Stupid people should be banned from taking Introduction to Statistical Methods.

[homer]

Molina had a very classy reaction to that strike call.