Power 50 Discussion Thread

[CheezWizHed]

Not trying to be flippant, but Fiers could be a #1 starting pitcher.

 

http://www.daviddarling.info/images/Bell_curve.jpg

 

If Fiers is most likely going to end up being a #5 SP, then "0" is being a #5 SP. Then somewhere around "1.5" might be his chance of being a #3 SP. Obviously a lower chance, but a chance nonetheless. Its all just probablity until its production.

[Never Outhustled]

Not really, I'm looking at his entire body of work:

R+: 580

A: 474

A+ 459

AA: 406

AAA: 486 (420 home/ 555 away)

 

I see a progression going the wrong direction.

He's 22. If he ever repeats a level a few times he'll finally play against players his age, and then you'll see the numbers you want.

 

 

At 22, its quite possible that he made a jump in strength. But I think you are giving him too much credit for being 22 also. I don't think there is that much more he can increase his slugging going forward. Players obviously gain strength as they age, but he is leaving the point where there is much more development there (still some, but I think 22-23 is the "knee of the curve").

 

Gind has the best raw power of the group.

 

This I seriously doubt. Schafer - yes. Green - probably not (wrist injury makes that hard to use history numbers). Gamel - not a chance.

 

So players don't develop power after age 22, but Gamel has uncomparable power? This statement in flawed and contradictary. Lets take a look at Mat Gamels 1st 3 pro seasons, which culminated in his age 22 season at BC.

 

R+: 5 HR

A: 17 HR

A+: 9 HR

 

I'm not seeing this massive power there. Mat's power didn't show until age 23, Gindl hasn't had an age 23 season yet. Now lets look at Gindl's 1st 3 pro seasons, all at the same level despite being 2 years younger.

 

R+: 5 HR

A: 13 HR

A+: 17 HR

 

Looks like Gindl has every bit as much power to me, despite being significantly younger. Now lets look at each players 1st stint in AAA.

Gamel: 11 HR, 473 slugging %

Gindl: 15 HR, 473 slugging %

 

Looks like your "not even close " statement doesn't hold water, even if we ignore age, and Gindl clearly has the advatage when the numbers are curved for age.

 

 

The main problem comparing Gindl, Green and Schafer is that Green and Shafer play positions where there are lower offensive expectations. If all three hit 820 at their positions (Gindl in RF, Shafer in CF and Green at 3B), you:

- Send Schafer to the all-star game

- Congratulate Green for an excellent year at 3B.

- Think about replacing Gindl in RF

I kindly take major dispute with your numbers. Replace an 820 OPS RF? The league average OPS in RF is just 780. Of course, if you want Gindl to look really good versus his peers, move him to LF, where the average OPS is just 725.

 

This is all before we get into a discussion of which players from this group is most likely to put up the highest OPS in the majors. If you curve their present numbers for age, it's clearly Gindl.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't think Green is necessarily a platoon candidate only. He's not awful against lefties. He's sort of just below average against them.

 

The MLE's for a 741 OPS isn't below average, it's awful. Green had a difference in splits in AAA of over 300 points. The only way he isn't a platoon player in the majors is if he's one of the top 5 hitters in the game. Schafer's splits are almost as bad.

 

I love Green, but he'll need to be paired with someone, not that this is such a bad thing. The fact that he kills righties is almost a positive. It's not like we need him to be the anchor of the line-up.

[endaround]

Not when he improved considerably since the beginning of the year. It was down around a 500 OPS in June. He's hit LHers since then.

[homer]

What alternate universe are you getting your numbers from?

Kind of ironic that you recently called someone out for being condescending and then you post something like this. Don't throw stones, dude.

[LouisEly]

I think one of the other things that Gindl has going against him perception-wise is the success of his own teammates. Green - .997 OPS, Kottaras - .991 OPS (small sample), Maldonado - .948 OPS (small sample), Katin - .938 (small sample), Schafer - .922 (small sample), Gamel - .921, Carroll - .825, Almonte - .816. Few if anyone would have said that some of those guys - with the exception of Katin and Gamel - would have posted those numbers even in samples as small as 125-150 PAs. The PCL is known as a hitters league to begin with, but the success of so many teammates kind of makes you wonder if the PCL had a below-average year for pitching quality, thus inflating numbers.

[Never Outhustled]

I think one of the other things that Gindl has going against him perception-wise is the success of his own teammates. Green - .997 OPS, Kottaras - .991 OPS (small sample), Maldonado - .948 OPS (small sample), Katin - .938 (small sample), Schafer - .922 (small sample), Gamel - .921, Carroll - .825, Almonte - .816. Few if anyone would have said that some of those guys - with the exception of Katin and Gamel - would have posted those numbers even in samples as small as 125-150 PAs. The PCL is known as a hitters league to begin with, but the success of so many teammates kind of makes you wonder if the PCL had a below-average year for pitching quality, thus inflating numbers.

Kottaras and Green are doing everything they can to prove their AAA numbers were legit. The PCL factor is overblown for teams in the eastern part of the league. I agree though that your saying that's just the perception, even if it isn't reality.

 

I think the other thing that hurts Gindl is that some here fail to curve numbers for age. Before he hit AA, people were comparing Khris Davis to Braun. That has died since he moved to an age appropriate level.

[LouisEly]

I did say "perception-wise". Just that - perception.

[Mr Southpaw]

New Top 50 any time soon?

[Mass Haas]

New Top 50 any time soon?

Not soon in the "within days" sense, but it will be available last week of September / first week of October. Thanks for your patience.

[paul253]

I'm excited to see how the top 5 turns out. I know Peralta will be #1 and Thornburg, Bradley, Jungmann and Lopez will make up the rest of the top 5, but I'm curious about the order.

[captkirk16]

I am watching the Florida/TN game and is Brewer playing DB for TN?

[Mass Haas]

I am watching the Florida/TN game and is Brewer playing DB for TN?

Back story from a June 2010 thread

[captkirk16]

Thanks Mass, I'm just getting old. He looked good yesterday though.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm excited to see how the top 5 turns out. I know Peralta will be #1 and Thornburg, Bradley, Jungmann and Lopez will make up the rest of the top 5, but I'm curious about the order.

 

 

Lopez is a very intriguing prospect, but has no business in a top 5 discussion. He was drafted in the same range as recent draft picks Evan Frederickson, Cody Adams, Seth Lintz, Max Walla, Cam Garfield, and Jimmy Nelson. Those guys show us we should value high quality AAA players over players drafted after round 1.

[LouisEly]

For once X and I agree on something! Yeah Gallardo was a 2nd round pick. But in addition to the guys X listed, you can also add Josh Murray and Brent Brewer. Some people around here bag on drafting college players, especially after the first round, saying they have "low ceilings". But if you look at the 2001-2004 drafts the top 5 players picked in the 2nd round each year are way more heavily weighted towards college players.

 

Point being, guys like Gallardo are the exception in the 2nd round, not the rule. For all that people ripped on the TGJ pick as having "no upside", in reality he was probably the 6th best pick in the 2nd round that year behind Ethier, Baker, Gorzelanny, Sweeney, and Schierholz. All college players except Schierholz, who was JC. There's roughly a 50% chance that Lopez never makes the majors.

[TheCrew07]

For once X and I agree on something! Yeah Gallardo was a 2nd round pick. But in addition to the guys X listed, you can also add Josh Murray and Brent Brewer. Some people around here bag on drafting college players, especially after the first round, saying they have "low ceilings". But if you look at the 2001-2004 drafts the top 5 players picked in the 2nd round each year are way more heavily weighted towards college players.

 

Point being, guys like Gallardo are the exception in the 2nd round, not the rule. For all that people ripped on the TGJ pick as having "no upside", in reality he was probably the 6th best pick in the 2nd round that year behind Ethier, Baker, Gorzelanny, Sweeney, and Schierholz. All college players except Schierholz, who was JC. There's roughly a 50% chance that Lopez never makes the majors.

Well many of those guys do have low ceilings, see Cole Gillespie... they just have relatively high floors, there's a good chance they'll at least be bench players.

 

The point is that you need a certain percentage of impact talent in your system, simply put you need a good mix of different types of talent, a Gamel type for every Green type. Some low ceiling guys might over achieve, certainly some high ceiling guys are going to fail, but I prefer a good mix of production vs raw talent in the system. Lopez might never make majors, but you can't field a pitching staff comprised of all 4s and 5s and compete either. Free agent pitching is far too expensive for the Brewers to ever consistently fill holes there, they will have to draft and develop pitching if they want to field legitimate contending teams. And while Lopez may never make the majors, Zach Jackson, Dave Bush, and Gabe Gross were never going to special and likely never good enough to be everyday regulars. All 3 of those guys were productive college players, high draft picks, but severely limited from a talent standpoint.

 

People didn't like when I said Gross was just a better version of Brady Clark because I didn't see anything when he played that made me think he was an everyday starter. Every argument that was made for him was statistical in nature, the McGehee discussion has been similar. When you watch him play you realize he's just not special, he's barely average athletically, and that's being generous. I've never said he can't be productive, what I've said all along is that he's not very gifted compared to his peers, I don't trust him to remain productive long term, and he has always been replaceable if the right deal came along.

 

I won't get into all of the different reasons I favor athleticism, that idea should sell itself. The kind of talent one can draft depends largely on where you are drafting and how well you are scouting and lets be honest, the Brewers scouting dept hasn't been the same since they lost all those people in a 3 year span. Once you get into the teens very few college players, especially pitchers, have amounted to much of anything, there's decades of drafts that bear out that fact. If you want legit talent in that range you're going to have to go after HS players, it's just incredibly tough to get Braun type talent that late in the draft.

 

The Brewers system is incredibly thin, the reemergence of a favorite of mine like Green doesn't change that fact, he's just not a super talented guy. Systems are rated on the depth of potential impact talent, we're very thin in that area after the 2010 winter trades. We have plenty of nice depth in the system, but we have very little at the top which projects to be even above average in MLB. Fiers has been fantastic, but his pure stuff is fringe average, he's a pitchability guy, and he's not going to turn many heads prospect wise. I cringe whenever I see comparisons to successful MLB pitchers that get by purely on pitchability, they tend to be the exceptions to the rule... like Marcum for example. I would love it if he turned out that well, but I have very difficult time projecting the best case scenario for players of that nature. That's why I never jumped on the Ross bandwagon early this season... let's see how guys like that do after every team has had an opportunity to see him in person and scout him before we get excited. Once teams have a chance to form a game plan then we'll see how good he is.... even in the low minors if you aren't able to make adjustments you aren't going to have much success and teams figured him out in a hurry.

 

I would rather the Brewers take a shot with a super athlete every year in the second round than start drafting pitchers like Jackson or position players like Gross.

[Mass Haas]

The Power 50 was once a one-man domain (and bi-weekly, yet -- Toby was a wonderful machine, all for our benefit), but for reference, here was Yovani Gallardo's P50 path (read from bottom to top).

 

And here's the July 10th, 2004 Power 50 in which Gallardo made his debut. Not a bad top four, huh? I counted 24 future big leaguers on that list (many for cups, or even sips, of coffee), and Jorge De La Rosa and Mike Adams have had impact careers elsewhere. Poor Tim Dillard was getting just dropped from the list even over seven years ago.

 

Thought it might be relevant given the Jorge Lopez placement speculation...

[paul253]

He was drafted in the same range as recent draft picks Evan Frederickson,

Cody Adams, Seth Lintz, Max Walla, Cam Garfield, and Jimmy Nelson.

Those guys show us we should value high quality AAA players over players

drafted after round 1.

 

I don't know a lot about Lopez and if he's not a top 5 prospect that's fine, but what do Cody Adams and all the other guys you listed have anything to do with where Lopez fits on our current prospect list? When those guys were drafted our system was better and to be honest some of them were reaches where they were picked. Lopez was considered more of a steal than a reach, and this was in a very deep draft. If you want to argue that we shouldn't be too excited about him because recent second round picks haven't turned out, that's one thing. But I don't see how Lopez's status should be affected by the lack of success of other players.

 

Those guys show us we should value high quality AAA players over players drafted after round 1.

 

I can agree with that but I thought the power 50 was more about ceiling than success in the higher levels. If you emphasize ceiling, Lopez would probably be ranked higher than Fiers. If you emphasize success, it'd be the other way around.

[Paulus88]

I would rather the Brewers take a shot with a super athlete every year in the second round than start drafting pitchers like Jackson or position players like Gross.

Not disagreeing with your general assertion but Gross was an elite athlete, he played Quarterback at Auburn. I would think he would be the example you're looking for, good athlete, one elite tool and hope for the best.

[YoungGeezy]

I'm excited to see how the top 5 turns out. I know Peralta will be #1 and Thornburg, Bradley, Jungmann and Lopez will make up the rest of the top 5, but I'm curious about the order.

 

Lopez is a very intriguing prospect, but has no business in a top 5 discussion. He was drafted in the same range as recent draft picks Evan Frederickson, Cody Adams, Seth Lintz, Max Walla, Cam Garfield, and Jimmy Nelson. Those guys show us we should value high quality AAA players over players drafted after round 1.

I agree, personally I'd include 1st round as well. Jungmann and Bradley are already close to a sure lock disappointment because they haven't even thrown a pitch and people are rating them #1 and #2 or right there with a proven Thornburg and Peralta. Pretty much these kids need to become aces because there is only one place to go from the top....down. Look at Arnett. He doesn't throw a pitch, people are already throwing him in the top 10 and near it, setting up unreal expectations, and he struggles and becomes a complete "bust."

 

As we have talked about before, do we rate base on pure projectability? Pure performance? A 50/50 blend? a 75/25 blend? 60/40 blend? which one needs to be weighted more? I could never ever throw a guy into a top 5, top 10 list without him ever suiting up for a game. That is rating solely on projectability and college/high school stats. (not a good marking) If Bradley comes out and has a good fall league (i believe he is pitching, right?) then yeah throw him in there. He comes out and just gets shelled, I start him in the #15 range ( hopefully the only place to go is up).

 

With Lopez, he pitched well is a small sample size. I'd keep Peralta, Thornburg, Scarpetta, all ahead of him for sure. Heckathorn, Bucci, Rivas I think still edge him, so fits in with Nelson, Manzanillo, Hall IMO. Note I rate closer to 55/45--60/40 projectablilty/performance. Lopez is just way to raw and unproven. I watched him on ESPN and in noway does he scream top prospect...yet.

 

Jungmann & Bradley I'd slot in behind the big 3 in my mind. Scarpetta is a stud and as of right now, I'd take his fastball/off-speed (curve) combo over either of them. It competes right there with Thorny's Fastball/Change and Peralta's Fastball/Slider. He just need to be more consistent and get that an effective 3rd pitch. He's only 23 as well.

 

Top 12 Pitchers (the way I rate)

1. Peralta

2. Thornburg

3. Scarpetta

4. Jungmann

5. Bradley

6. Rogers

7. Heckathorn

8. Bucci

9. Rivas

10. Nelson

11. Hall

12. Lopez

 

If you weight projectabilty and draft status very high like many do I could see something like:

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Peralta

2. Thornburg

3. Jungmann

4. Bradley

5. Rogers

6. Scarpetta

7. Lopez

8. Heckathorn

9. Bucci

10. Hall

 

Either way as of today:

Peralta/Thornburg > Jungmann/Bradley

Scarpetta > Lopez

 

Projectability is close between all (1-3 range), therefore performance gives them the advantage. It's good to project well, its another to back it up and until they do it doesn't change. Peralta I believe has the best chance out of bunch to get to that #1 guy.

[Mass Haas]

New Top 50 any time soon?

FYI -- we're now going to ride out the Brewer postseason first before re-focusing on a new P50 edition. Plenty to focus on at the big league level for now. Enjoy the ride.

[Mr Southpaw]

New Top 50 any time soon?

FYI -- we're now going to ride out the Brewer postseason first before re-focusing on a new P50 edition. Plenty to focus on at the big league level for now. Enjoy the ride.

Anytime soon?

[bamberger]

BOO-

not a Haloween type, either.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's almost like MassHaas & co. might have lives away from BF.net! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif