Power 50 Discussion Thread

[Herm]

When you you expect you'll have post signing deadline Power 50 update. With nothing of consequence going on at the major league level to grab my attention, I'm curious how the pair of first rounders stack up in your informed opinions.

[And That]

We'll have one after the minor league seasons wrap up. Not sure yet if we'll wait until after the AFL season.

 

Jungmann, Bradley and Lopez are all in my top 5. So are Peralta and Thornburg. So... there are my thoughts for now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Never Outhustled]

We'll have one after the minor league seasons wrap up. Not sure yet if we'll wait until after the AFL season.

 

Jungmann, Bradley and Lopez are all in my top 5. So are Peralta and Thornburg. So... there are my thoughts for now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

So Caleb Gindl gets the shaft again? Besides Peralta, how many on that list will dominate AAA at age 22 like Gindl? Bradley was only average in college, and Lopez is a project. Thornburg is the same age as Gindl playing 2 levels lower. Gindl has been awesome the last 3 months. He has a higher OPS than Gamel since the all-star break.

 

[LouisEly]

X, the three who combine to vote on the Power 50 have always weighed ceiling for lower level guys over production for higher level guys. If you go back to the Power 50 archives you will see that after Arnett was drafted he debuted at #6 (6/30/09), ahead of Braddock, Green, Cain, and McGehee. Toby hinted the other day that Fiers wouldn't be ranked higher than Gennett or either K. Davis. Yes Gennett is 21 and in high A but he has a .329 OBP and only walked 23 times in >550 PAs; one Davis is 23 and struggling to make the adjustment to AA, and the other Davis is 23 and has a .318 OBP in high A. I would have a hard time ranking any of those three over a guy who profiles along the likes of Marcum/Collmenter and on the low end Carlos Villanueva (yes, Fiers is a little older, but he was also in AAA within two years of being drafted).

 

Gindl is a guy who does almost everything well but nothing great, and thus he is viewed as having a lower ceiling even though he is only 22 and having a good year in AAA. The comparison I made to Gindl in looking at everything but height was Luis Gonzalez - very similar minor league numbers in age at each level. So Gindl's ceiling would appear to be a pre-sudden-power-surge-at-age-30 Luis Gonzalez, and thus an average major league RF.

 

In Toby's defense, he only mentioned his top 5. I wouldn't rank Gindl over Gamel, Green, Peralta, or Thornburg. Gindl is a guy I have in the lower end of the Top 10 a notch below Schafer and splitting hairs with the two first rounders, Fiers, and Scarpetta. I have Lopez at #11 until he proves something.

[homer]

Plus Gindl's home and road splits are pretty dramatic leading me to believe his power numbers are inflated by the PCL effect. I still like him though and wouldn't mind him being called up if one of the corner outfielders was hurt. I think he needs another year in AAA so I can get a better read on the type of player he is.

[CheezWizHed]

Being around #10 for Gindl sounds about right. His SLG numbers have dropped consistently through this MiLB progression, until this year. And looking closer at his splits, he is slugging 420 at Nashville and 555 for away games. Given the "wild west" numbers at AAA, I'm not convinced that he can continue his current 486 slugging numbers moving up to the MLB level.

 

By constrast here are Schafer, Green, and Gamel's home/away slugging splits:

 

Schafer: 488/513

Green: 541/624

Gamel: 621/502

 

edit - Blast! I'm too slow of a typer... Homer snuck that in on me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Never Outhustled]

Being around #10 for Gindl sounds about right. His SLG numbers have dropped consistently through this MiLB progression, until this year. And looking closer at his splits, he is slugging 420 at Nashville and 555 for away games. Given the "wild west" numbers at AAA, I'm not convinced that he can continue his current 486 slugging numbers moving up to the MLB level.

 

By constrast here are Schafer, Green, and Gamel's home/away slugging splits:

 

Schafer: 488/513

Green: 541/624

Gamel: 621/502

 

edit - Blast! I'm too slow of a typer... Homer snuck that in on me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

Your reading way too much into small sample numbers. Gind has the best raw power of the group. He's improved at the most consistent rate of the group, and he blows away what the others did at this age. He has high ceiling tools, with a lightning quick bat, very good bat control, and a terrific eye. Unlike Green and Schafer, he's not a platoon player. Gindl is similar to Kirby Picket and Tony Gwynn in that he can produce a high OPS without high HR totals.

[CheezWizHed]

Your reading way too much into small sample numbers.

 

Not really, I'm looking at his entire body of work:

R+: 580

A: 474

A+ 459

AA: 406

AAA: 486 (420 home/ 555 away)

 

I see a progression going the wrong direction. At 22, its quite possible that he made a jump in strength. But I think you are giving him too much credit for being 22 also. I don't think there is that much more he can increase his slugging going forward. Players obviously gain strength as they age, but he is leaving the point where there is much more development there (still some, but I think 22-23 is the "knee of the curve").

 

Gind has the best raw power of the group.

 

This I seriously doubt. Schafer - yes. Green - probably not (wrist injury makes that hard to use history numbers). Gamel - not a chance.

 

with a lightning quick bat, very good bat control, and a terrific eye.

 

I've never heard anyone give him that much credit on bat speed, but otherwise I agree. His OBP numbers are great.

 

The main problem comparing Gindl, Green and Schafer is that Green and Shafer play positions where there are lower offensive expectations. If all three hit 820 at their positions (Gindl in RF, Shafer in CF and Green at 3B), you:

- Send Schafer to the all-star game

- Congratulate Green for an excellent year at 3B.

- Think about replacing Gindl in RF.

[homer]

I don't think Green is necessarily a platoon candidate only. He's not awful against lefties. He's sort of just below average against them.

[gregmag]

Yeah, I was dubious about the Green platoon comment too. I wouldn't dismiss Schafer that way either. Maybe X was just talking about how they should start out. On one hand, I like the idea of breaking hitters in as part of a soft platoon, to help them get their feet on the ground. But I don't think you dismiss anybody as a platoon-only player until you've seen some evidence that he really can't hit same-side pitching at the MLB level. I certainly think it's way too early to make that kind of judgment about Green or Schafer.

 

The splits on Gindl are interesting. I'd like to know how the park in Nashville generally plays, especially for LH flyball hitters, compared to the other PCL parks. I'm a big proponent of age/level, and I don't see why Gindl's stature should lead us to think his power won't develop further. He's a hard guy to project, as the lively discussions around here bear out. I like him enough that I want to see him get a serious chance, and as a LH fourth OF, with inevitable injuries, he's in line for that chance next year. Unless of course RR just desperately wants to see how many flies (the bugs, not the balls) will swarm to Mark Kotsay's dessicated corpse. (Personal to MK: I kid because I care. You've had a good career, and you deserve a happy retirement.)

[dadofandrew]

Gindl is the youngest, and has played very well at AAA at 22, just like Hart. I'm not sure what to think of Schafer, as he's missed so much time, but I like Gindl to at least be a platoon starter in LF/RF at some point. For a LH hitter, that's a full-time job.

[battlekow]

X, the three who combine to vote on the Power 50 have always weighed ceiling for lower level guys over production for higher level guys.

Ha, didn't we just get accused of the opposite, too?

[paul253]

Sorry to interupt the Gindl/Green/Gamel talk but I didn't want to start a brand new thread on this. Can someone comment on Michael Fiers ceiling? He seems to be one of the most underrated prospects, numbers wise, in the system. He's definitely old for still being a minor leaguer and I hear his fastball only tops out in the low 90's, but he's had more K's than IP's in every level he's been at, including now in AAA. Is there any chance he can be a major league starter and if so what does he top out at? Does he have any plus pitches? Can he be a #3 or is that asking too much? With him and Peralta having good showings in Nashville, it may make sense to trade a Wolf or a Narveson after the season to bolster the system a bit and/or save some money.

[LouisEly]

Yes he could be a #3. A scouting report that was posted about a week or so ago confirmed that he has an "outstanding" changeup, along with a very good slow curve. Either the change or the curve was around 76, so that's a 14-16 mph differential from his fastball to his change/curve which is nasty if you can replicate the delivery. That's along the lines of other successful major league pitchers with an outstanding changeup, such as Marcum (tops out at 89), Hellickson (tops out at 92), and Collmenter (tops out at 91-92). In fact I think that's more than Marcum because Marcum's change is around 80. At the low end he projects to a Carlos Villanueva, but Fiers has a few more ticks on the fastball than CV (who tops out at 88-89) and it sounds like he has a better 3rd pitch than CV.

[Hate those Rodents]

Maldanado deserves a big boost in the power 50. Is there any reason people were/are higher on Lucroy than Maldanado. I like Lucroy a lot, just sayin...

[jjfanec]

Maldanado deserves a big boost in the power 50. Is there any reason people were/are higher on Lucroy than Maldanado. I like Lucroy a lot, just sayin...

Because Maldanado never put up an OPS above .684 before this year. Lucroy's lowest OPS for a season was .767 but was frequently .800 or higher. Their bats were never comparable until this year and really only the second half of this year.

[And That]

X, the three who combine to vote on the Power 50 have always weighed ceiling for lower level guys over production for higher level guys.

Ha, didn't we just get accused of the opposite, too?

I'm pretty sure you could finish the sentence "The three who combine on the Power 50 have always..." with whatever and someone would find a way to argue for it.

 

I've seen:

"...been too stats oriented."

"...loved the high draft picks even though they haven't played."

"...weighed potential over output too much."

"...weighed output over potential too much."

"...hated A-ball relievers."

"...had no respect for Jeff Housman."

 

To borrow from Johnny Cash, "you can't hardly win, can you?"

[And That]

Hellickson (tops out at 92)

Tops out at 95, and each of his pitches are better than Fiers' counterpart. Including the change.

 

It's not fair to Fiers to start comparing him with guys like Hellickson or Marcum. It's like the old "he's a soft-tossing lefty, therefore... HE MUST BE LIKE MOYER."

[TooLiveBrew]

So you're saying Fiers is like a righthanded version of Moyer?

[CheezWizHed]

To borrow from Johnny Cash, "you can't hardly win, can you?"

 

Just a bunch of arm-chair GMs trying to keep you humble! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif But this is still the best run sports forum I've ever seen and I've learned quite a bit here. Even if you do hate Jeff Housman...

 

And since Fiers is right handed, shouldn't we compare him to Gregg Maddux instead? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif But I would think he could easily be a #4-5 SP at the MLB level.

[jjfanec]

And since Fiers is right handed, shouldn't we compare him to Gregg Maddux instead? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif But I would think he could easily be a #4-5 SP at the MLB level.

And considering our current number 4 pitcher cost 10 million a year, Fiers would be a huge help in allowing us to lock up other pitchers long term. If we can have Fiers and Peralta as low cost back end of the rotation pitchers that would free up some of money to sign Greinke and Marcum.

 

His numbers dont seem like your typical AAAA pitcher. He never gives up hits or walks. He strikes guys out effectively and it isnt like he FB is in the mid 80's all the time

[LouisEly]

Funny... when I watched Hellickson pitch against the Yankees a couple of weeks ago I never saw the gun read higher than 92.

[uwisfan]

Peralta

Jungmann

Thornburg

Bradley

Green

Lopez

Gindl

[And That]

Funny... when I watched Hellickson pitch against the Yankees a couple of weeks ago I never saw the gun read higher than 92.

He hit 94.2 in his last start and BA had him at 95 last year.

[paul253]

So.......can he be a #3? I"d seriously consider making a trade if I were Milwaukee. I think Peralta or Fiers could be an affective #5 next season and would allow them to pitch without the pressure they'd potentially have if they have to come up in 2013 and replace Greinke Marcum and Wolf.