The Magical Magic Number is… (part 1)

[markedman5]

Ok guys help me out here. How can we be 100% to make the playoffs when we haven't clinched a playoff birth yet? However unlikely, it is it is still possible for us to miss until our magic number is zero....unless it has something to do with teams chasing us playing each other and being assured of losses but even that wouldn't be enough to assure us of a playoff spot if we lose out as far as I can tell.

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[Dragonbait]

RoCo... my wife caught that too.. thought it was funny.

[bthurley19]

My guess with the 100% thing is that our playoff percentage is actually something like 99.95% or better, so the system they are using rounds off to a tenth of a percentage point, hence it saying 100%.

[hawing]

Ok guys help me out here. How can we be 100% to make the playoffs when we haven't clinched a playoff birth yet? However unlikely, it is it is still possible for us to miss until our magic number is zero....unless it has something to do with teams chasing us playing each other and being assured of losses but even that wouldn't be enough to assure us of a playoff spot if we lose out as far as I can tell.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Huh, I could swear that I looked at the BP odds earlier this morning and it didn't read 100.0 for Milwaukee.

I can see Philadelphia being at 100.0 (they have been for a while), since they have the wild-card as a fallback, but otherwise I don't know what to tell you and will be interested to see how those more expert with stats answer.

 

As for that 1/3 of a game, clearly STL will make it up on their next half-off-day. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

And as for a "wild card magic number," I suppose a day might come when the Brewers will have clinched a playoff berth (whether wild card or division champion), but why would the WC magic number be all that different from the division magic number?

[sdcheezhd]

I think it's like games you have a 100% chance of winning even though they aren't over yet (like being up 12-0 in the 8th or 9th). No team has ever blown a 12 run lead in the 9th: no team has ever blown a 10.5 game lead with 20 to go, etc.

 

bigredrobbo posted the Bill James clinch formula (games ahead squared divided by 4 is greater than games left) awhile back and the Brewers are ahead of that (27+ v 20) although if they lose today behind it (18 v 19)

 

Anyway I can see why folks are looking around for other magic numbers.

[topper09er]

Ok guys help me out here. How can we be 100% to make the playoffs when we haven't clinched a playoff birth yet? However unlikely, it is it is still possible for us to miss until our magic number is zero....unless it has something to do with teams chasing us playing each other and being assured of losses but even that wouldn't be enough to assure us of a playoff spot if we lose out as far as I can tell.

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Come on students, read before you talk.

 

If you hover over their Playoff Pct column it says:

 

"The percentage of times a team makes the playoffs - either through winning their division or their league's wild card - in the simulated seasons."

 

This is not some statistical prediction, it is the results from X number of simulations

[topper09er]

Also what we really need to a Dbacks E number since clinching the #2 seed is extremely important, whoever doesn't will just lose 3 game to Phily and be out.

 

Right now the 2 seed E # = 18

[DuWayne Steurer]

Ok guys help me out here. How can we be 100% to make the playoffs when we haven't clinched a playoff birth yet? However unlikely, it is it is still possible for us to miss until our magic number is zero....unless it has something to do with teams chasing us playing each other and being assured of losses but even that wouldn't be enough to assure us of a playoff spot if we lose out as far as I can tell.

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

I'm not sure either. You'd think until it's actually clinched, it would be like 99.9% or something.

 

The 1995 Angels were standing at 99.9% on August 24th, went 11 and 24 the rest of the way, and didn't make the playoffs. That's the only 99.9% playoff odds team that didn't make the playoffs, at least at coolstandings.com. However, even just recently, the 2009 Tigers, 2007 Mets, and 2003 Mariners were all at one point, over 95%, and failed to reach the playoffs. That's why last week when the lead dropped to 7 1/2 after the St. Louis sweep, I wanted people to stop saying 'it's over' with absolute definition there. It's almost assuredly over, but nothing's over until it's clinched.

[monty57]

bigredrobbo posted the Bill James clinch formula (games ahead squared divided by 4 is greater than games left) awhile back and the Brewers are ahead of that (27+ v 20) although if they lose today behind it (18 v 19)

 

That's kind of funny. We clinched quite a while ago, but if we lose today we haven't clinched. I'll go out on a limb and guess that formula isn't 100% accurate :-)

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think it's like games you have a 100% chance of winning even though they aren't over yet (like being up 12-0 in the 8th or 9th). No team has ever blown a 12 run lead in the 9th: no team has ever blown a 10.5 game lead with 20 to go, etc.

 

bigredrobbo posted the Bill James clinch formula (games ahead squared divided by 4 is greater than games left) awhile back and the Brewers are ahead of that (27+ v 20) although if they lose today behind it (18 v 19)

 

Anyway I can see why folks are looking around for other magic numbers.

I'll never question Bill James' baseball genius, but it seems like he's not quite clear on the definition of the word 'clinch'. How can you go from 'clinched', meaning 'to settle a matter decisively' to not clinched?

 

To me, 'clinched' means there's absolutely zero mathematical chance that the outcome will now change. I'm not even asking if it's ever happened before. There doesn't have to be a precedent for something to be possible.

[Dollarbill13]

Ok guys help me out here. How can we be 100% to make the playoffs when we haven't clinched a playoff birth yet? However unlikely, it is it is still possible for us to miss until our magic number is zero....unless it has something to do with teams chasing us playing each other and being assured of losses but even that wouldn't be enough to assure us of a playoff spot if we lose out as far as I can tell.

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Their odds are based on simulating the rest of the season a million (or millions) of times. The odds are then derived based on what % of the simulations result in playoffs. And like was said earlier, I'm sure they round to the nearest 0.1

[RightFieldCoder]

They probably also simulate based on expected win percentage. The magic number assumes the leader has a 0% chance of winning and the team behind has a 100% chance of winning. It's mathematically possible for the Brewers to go 0-fer the rest of the year. It's very probable (rounded to 100%) that the combination of Brewers wins and Cardinal loses add up to 11.

[Dollarbill13]

The expected win % is listed on the playoff odds page. The Brewers' is .557 and the Cards' is .551

[sdcheezhd]

Anything is possible. It is possible the Pirates will take the division. I don't have a problem with declaring that at some point it 's like a 12-0 lead in the 9th. I do have a problem with Bill James' formula, mostly because it doesn't factor in head to heads where 1 outcome has the effect of 2 otherwise. I think I saw somewhere that there is at least 1 time when someone satisfied the formula and didn't win: 34 Giants losing to the 34 Cards. I don't think the 95 Angels and 51 Dodgers make it since their high points were with a lot of games left.

[Dollarbill13]

FWIW, I simulated it ~150,000 times in excel using BP's expected winning percentages. Looks like the actual playoff percentage is ~99.975% according to their sim.

[Kelbysdaddy]

if the brewers win tonight, the magic number goes from 11 to 9 correct? i was really looking forward to tigerbrews rooney pics.

[RockCoCougars]

if the brewers win tonight, the magic number goes from 11 to 9 correct? i was really looking forward to tigerbrews rooney pics.

 

Yes. Hopefully, Bob McClure and Andy Etchebarren are skipped in the next few days as well.

[Patrick425]

if the brewers win tonight, the magic number goes from 11 to 9 correct? i was really looking forward to tigerbrews rooney pics.

 

Yes. Hopefully, Bob McClure and Andy Etchebarren are skipped in the next few days as well.

..and David Puddy.

 

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