How critical is the #2 Seed?

[lcbj68c]

58 days to go until the end of the regular season, yet I can't help but feel the #2 seed is critical to how I'll view this season. Winning a division title would be fun, but I think I'd be disappointed with losing in four games to the Phillies again.

Philadelphia and Atlanta have all but clinched the #1 and #4 seeds, imho and can't play each other. That would mean that the Brewers as a #3 seed would play at Philly. I know we won a series there in April, but I feel they made some moves at the deadline for starters, while we just kind of got infield depth at backup slots and an 8th inning guy who might not matter if playing from behind. Obviously despite our pre-season pitching acquistions, their starting pitching is talked about as being better.

I think it is absolutely imperative that the Brewers overtake SanFran or Arizona (though I think they will fade) for the #2 seed and get that opening series vs Atlanta in Milwaukee.

Giants and Brewers scheds seems alike. Giants have some rough series in August (@Philly & @Atl), but face all weak NL West teams in the month of Sept. The Brewers dont seem to have any tough stretches in Aug/Sept, but do have a tough series with Philly at home and cards/reds mixed in a bunch. I don't mean to poo-poo a division title, but I'll be rooting daily for the Giants to lose or Atlanta to fade and a non-NL east team getting the wild card. A #3 seed would mean a very quick exit unfortunately.

[brwrsfan]

Yes, I would agree we don't want to face Philly in the first round, but we're getting a tad ahead of ourselves at this point I think. Gotta get there first.

 

I also don't think it's 100% that Atlanta gets the WC. They're the favorite at this point, but they're only 3 up on the Brewers (should we not win the division) and only 3.5-4 up on Arizona. Atlanta has really struggled to score runs this year (though Bourn should help) but any team that can't score could possibly be setup for a losing skid. One long one at this time of year could really let a lot of teams back in it. If the WC were to go to Arizona or Milwaukee/St Louis, we might be able to avoid the Phillies in the first round.

 

So to me, it's too far out to worry about this until we actually have a playoff spot secured, there are just too many games and too many variables to consider when you still have 1/3 of the season to go.

[topper09er]

If Mike Cameron catches a ball that hit his glove in game 1 and Brett Myers is called out on an obvious strike in game 2 we could have swept the Phillies. Playing Philly in the first round is certainly not an auto-exit.

 

Infact, I might actually prefer to play them first because it may be easier to beat them in a 5 game series instead of a 7 game series

[Rillo]

I was thinking about this the other day as well. Another reason it may be a positive to play the Phillies in the first round is that it may be easier to set up our rotation to maximize Yo, Greinke and Marcum. Granted they'd have the same advantage with Halladay, Lee and Hamels. However, say we played the Braves in the first round and win it in 5 games, while the Phillies beat the NL West winner in 3. That could push whoever pitched game 5 back to the fourth pitcher for the series against the Phillies while they would be able to start at the top of their rotation.

[Warning Track Power]

I was thinking about this the other day as well. Another reason it may be a positive to play the Phillies in the first round is that it may be easier to set up our rotation to maximize Yo, Greinke and Marcum. Granted they'd have the same advantage with Halladay, Lee and Hamels. However, say we played the Braves in the first round and win it in 5 games, while the Phillies beat the NL West winner in 3. That could push whoever pitched game 5 back to the fourth pitcher for the series against the Phillies while they would be able to start at the top of their rotation.

If we were able to win in the NLDS, I would be absolutely fine with whoever pitched Game 5 being the fourth pitcher against Philadelphia or San Francsico. This means we won a playoff series! Hooray! More importantly though, it is for this exact scenario that we have 3 stud pitchers in Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum. One of those guys most likely would have 3 or 4 days at least worth of rest to pitch Game 1 on schedule.

[GoudaBrew]

Playoff series are rare for the Brewers. Our magic number is 52. In 5-6 weeks we can hopefully worry about this.

[lcbj68c]

I was thinking about this the other day as well. Another reason it may be a positive to play the Phillies in the first round is that it may be easier to set up our rotation to maximize Yo, Greinke and Marcum. Granted they'd have the same advantage with Halladay, Lee and Hamels. However, say we played the Braves in the first round and win it in 5 games, while the Phillies beat the NL West winner in 3. That could push whoever pitched game 5 back to the fourth pitcher for the series against the Phillies while they would be able to start at the top of their rotation.

If Gallardo went in game #5 vs Atlanta on 10/7, he would be on normal rest for the NLCS #3 on 10/12, but I get your point. Halladay/Lee/Hamels vs Greinke/Marcum/Gallardo.

 

[lcbj68c]

Yes, I would agree we don't want to face Philly in the first round, but we're getting a tad ahead of ourselves at this point I think. Gotta get there first.

So to me, it's too far out to worry about this until we actually have a playoff spot secured, there are just too many games and too many variables to consider when you still have 1/3 of the season to go.

I don't think it's a lock we get there, that's not the point. My point is I do think that Philly is the #1 seed and should we beat out ATL for the Wild Card, we'd still be at Philly for NLDS. Regardless of whether we win the central, I'll root for SF to lose on a daily basis for the next two months leading up to Sept. 28th.

 

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Anything can happen in a short series so I really don't care who we play. When we get there, it's a crap shoot where the team that gets good pitching and timely hitting ends up winning the World Series.

[jjfanec]

I dont really care who we play in the first round, but I really care where we play them. A home playoff series would be huge for this team and for the fan base. It would be great to see the atmosphere at Miller Park. The atmosphere at Game 3 versus the Phillies was good but seemed tempered by being down 2-0

[lcbj68c]

If Mike Cameron catches a ball that hit his glove in game 1 and Brett Myers is called out on an obvious strike in game 2 we could have swept the Phillies. Playing Philly in the first round is certainly not an auto-exit.

 

Infact, I might actually prefer to play them first because it may be easier to beat them in a 5 game series instead of a 7 game series

Really? I was under the impression that if you take care of business at home as the Brewers have all year, that a 7 game series gives you 4 chances to steal one as opposed to 3 chances. I remember the Cameron play being huge. But didn't remember the Myers non-call, nor the fact that it was responsible for pretty much all 5 runs in that game. I was still mad at Sveum for trotting out CC in game #2 on 3 days rest. Let Suppan take the game #2 loss and let CC go in game #3 or #4 and try to force a winner take all game #5.

 

[rluzinski]

MIL: 88-74

ATL: 90-72

PHI: 95-67

 

Assuming that represents their true talent level, I have the Brewers beating Atlanta 49% of the time and Philli 40%. Big difference but the suggestion that the Brewers have no chance is just not correct. Lot's of luck involved in a short series.

[monty57]

Infact, I might actually prefer to play them first because it may be easier to beat them in a 5 game series instead of a 7 game series

 

That was my first thought when I read the original post. A home series would be great, but the Phillies look like the most talented team in the NL, and it should be easier to beat them 3-out-of-5 than 4-out-of-7.

 

I always cheer against any team that could be in any kind of a race against the Brewers, so I'll hope for SF/Ari to lose, and I'll hope for Philly and Atl to lose. But really, I'm most interested in the Brewers winning the NL Central. If they can do that, then our team can make noise in the playoffs.

[topper09er]

---

Really? I was under the impression that if you take care of business at home as the Brewers have all year, that a 7 game series gives you 4 chances to steal one as opposed to 3 chances. I remember the Cameron play being huge. But didn't remember the Myers non-call, nor the fact that it was responsible for pretty much all 5 runs in that game. I was still mad at Sveum for trotting out CC in game #2 on 3 days rest. Let Suppan take the game #2 loss and let CC go in game #3 or #4 and try to force a winner take all game #5.

If by taking care of business you are assuming the Brewers are a lock to win exery single home game then yes Id prefer the 7 game series, but just because we are good at home does not mean we are perfect there.

 

2008 NLDS, game 2

Bottom of the 2nd, Phillies Batting, Behind 0-1, Brewers' CC Sabathia facing 5-6-7
b2	0-1	0	---	4,(2-1) BSBX	O	PHI	P. Burrell	C. Sabathia	-3%	42%	Flyball: LF
b2	0-1	1	---	4,(1-2) BCSX		PHI	J. Werth	C. Sabathia	4%	46%	Double to CF (Line Drive)
b2	0-1	1	-2-	2,(1-0) BX	R	PHI	P. Feliz	C. Sabathia	11%	57%	Double to LF (Line Drive); Werth Scores
b2	1-1	1	-2-	4,(0-2) CCFX	O	PHI	C. Ruiz	C. Sabathia	-3%	54%	Groundout: 1B unassisted; Feliz to 3B
b2	1-1	2	--3	9,(3-2) SSBF*BF*BFB		PHI	B. Myers	C. Sabathia	1%	55%	Walk
b2	1-1	2	1-3	4,(3-0) BBBB		PHI	J. Rollins	C. Sabathia	2%	58%	Walk; Myers to 2B
b2	1-1	2	123	4,(1-2) BCFX	RRRR	PHI	S. Victorino	C. Sabathia	29%	86%	Home Run (Fly Ball); Feliz Scores; Myers Scores; Rollins Scores
b2	5-1	2	---	3,(0-2) CFS	O	PHI	C. Utley	C. Sabathia	-0%	86%	Strikeout Swinging

 

Sabathia had Myers looking but the umpire gave the benefit of the doubt to Myers with 2 outs which was an absolute horrible call. You never know how things would have gone if the game was 1-1 after the 2nd inning but the soul crushing Grand Slam would not have happened.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Russ - Does that factor in being at home vs. ATL and on the road vs. PHI? Just curious.

 

PHI, ATL and SF all seem like similar teams...great starting pitching, solid bullpens and better defense, but weaker lineups than the Brewers. Maybe the Phils with Utley are on par or better, but the Braves & Giants aren't. They are all beatable in a short series.

[Warning Track Power]

MIL: 88-74

ATL: 90-72

PHI: 95-67

 

Assuming that represents their true talent level, I have the Brewers beating Atlanta 49% of the time and Philli 40%. Big difference but the suggestion that the Brewers have no chance is just not correct. Lot's of luck involved in a short series.

Interesting fact...if the Brewers finish .500 the rest of the way (27-26 since there are 53 games left), they go 87-75. Rluz, your prediction has them going 28-25 the rest of the way? Just curious as to why? Based on their schedule, I would think a 30-23 or so record would be a reasonable expectation given the amount of games against Houston (6 games), Chicago (6 games) and Pittsburgh (10 games) or teams they have played very well against in 2011.

[bigredrobbo]

I'm just delighted the NL won the All Star Game because it means we play the Red Sox at home first when we get to the World Series. Whaddya mean we still have a bunch of games to play? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[RockCoCougars]

I'd much rather face Philly in the 5 game series. Heck, I'd rather face them in a sudden death. I really don't fear the Giants or the Braves as much.

[lcbj68c]

MIL: 88-74

ATL: 90-72

PHI: 95-67

 

Assuming that represents their true talent level, I have the Brewers beating Atlanta 49% of the time and Philli 40%. Big difference but the suggestion that the Brewers have no chance is just not correct. Lot's of luck involved in a short series.

I didn't really mean to assume that the Brewers didn't have a shot at beating Philly. I'd just be disappointed if we did have to play them and lost in 4 games. I want this playoff appearance to feel "better" or more accomplished than the 2008 run. The same outcome would be disappointing to me. For that reason, I'd love to have home-field in the NLDS round at a minimum. Maybe not so much as avoiding the Phillies.

 

I'm not all over the Phillies, but I think they are the team to beat. We'll see who's healthy come October and who can get hot and win it. Phillies are the team to beat, no doubt as they have the most wins at this point. However, it should be noted that only 1 time in the past 10 years has the team with the best regular season record gone on to win the World Series. That was the Yankees in 2009. Being the team to beat in July means didly-poo except that you are probably making the tournament..that's it. If you are strictly talking about the National League "team to beat", it's even more of a case. Only 1 time in the past ten years in the National League, has the #1 overall seed actually won the NL pennant to get to the World Series.....in fact 60% (6/10) of the time, it's been the wild card or the team with the worst record in the NL that won the pennant. So much for being the team to beat, in my honest opinion.

 

 

[fondybrewfan]

I would prefer to have to play the Braves or Giants over the Phils IF we make the playoffs; but I don't know that there is much seperation for the Phillies as most people think.

 

Assuming the Brewers, Braves, Giants, and Phillies all make the playoffs; I believe it would be a crapshoot since all 4 have incredible Top 3 starting pitchers. If Weeks can come back healthy; I am not so sure that we don't have the best offense. The Phillies are tough but they aren't the Red Sox or Yankees on offense

 

Phillies:

Halladay

Lee

Hamels

 

Brewers:

Grienke

Marcum

Gallardo

 

Braves:

Jurjjens

Hanson

Hudson

 

Giants:

Lincecum

Cain

Vogelsong

 

 

Those staffs are ridiculous

[JohnBriggs12]

Clinching early so you can set your rotation is more important than seeding.

[rluzinski]

MIL: 88-74

ATL: 90-72

PHI: 95-67

 

Assuming that represents their true talent level, I have the Brewers beating Atlanta 49% of the time and Philli 40%. Big difference but the suggestion that the Brewers have no chance is just not correct. Lot's of luck involved in a short series.

Interesting fact...if the Brewers finish .500 the rest of the way (27-26 since there are 53 games left), they go 87-75. Rluz, your prediction has them going 28-25 the rest of the way? Just curious as to why? Based on their schedule, I would think a 30-23 or so record would be a reasonable expectation given the amount of games against Houston (6 games), Chicago (6 games) and Pittsburgh (10 games) or teams they have played very well against in 2011.

I didn't put much thought into those win totals to be honest. I was more concerned with estimating the relative talent differences of the teams in question. Those were not final record predictions. As for the strength of opponent adjustment, I'd like to see what the Brewers strength of schedule is before commenting. Anyone give that in-season?

And yes, I gave the Brewers home field advantage against ATL.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Really, most playoff series come down to a few key hits or plays. If it's between playing the Phillies, Giants, and Braves, there really won't be a huge difference. All 3 teams have very good pitching this year, and so do we. Either way we'll need to get through 2 of the 3 teams to get to the World Series. Just gotta come up big when it counts. Braun and Fielder are good players to have when you need big hits. However, as was said before the difference is home field advantage. If we play the Braves, then we'll have home field. Otherwise we'll likely be playing against the Phillies without home field. In that situation, I'll take home field.

[ecjimg]

If Mike Cameron catches a ball that hit his glove in game 1 and Brett Myers is called out on an obvious strike in game 2 we could have swept the Phillies. Playing Philly in the first round is certainly not an auto-exit.

 

Infact, I might actually prefer to play them first because it may be easier to beat them in a 5 game series instead of a 7 game series

I love this post. I bring this up often to my GF, but I call it the ball Cameron dropped in the rain and CC walking the pitcher (right before a two out grand slam). She tells me to get over it.

 

[The Truth]

Playoffs?! Playoffs?! First lets see if we can win a Series at home vs the Cardinals with Roenicke starting a questionable lineup yet again