Should we worry about the Reds?

[brwrsfan]

I know they are currently 6.5 back, but is everyone completely ruling out the Reds at this point? I thought we could bury them over the weekend, but they swept the Giants and have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. 6.5 is a lot of ground, but not impossible. Here is what they have left:

August:

3 @ Houston
3 @ Cubs
4 vs Rockies
3 vs Padres
3 @ Nationals
3 @ Pirates
3 @ Florida
3 vs Nationals
3 vs Phillies

Lots of road games there, but only 6 games against teams currently over .500 (Pirates and Phillies). Granted, the Reds are 2 games under .500 right now themselves.

September isn't much more difficult:

1 vs Phillies
3 @ Cardinals
3 @ Cubs
3 @ Rockies
4 vs Cubs
3 vs Brewers
3 vs Astros
3 @ Pirates
3 @ Mets

More winning teams there, but also 10 games against Cubs/Astros. They only have 3 left each against Milwaukee and St Louis, that probably works to their advantage considering that the Brewers/Cards have 12 left, so one of them is going to lose and give the Reds a chance to gain. Thoughts?

[fondybrewfan]

Jeez that August might be the easiest schedule I have ever seen. They could very well not play a team above .500 until the last series of the month.

 

They have a lot of ground to make up though; the Brewers schedule is only marginally harder so they can't expect to gain much ground unless they go 18-10 or something similar to that

[JohnBriggs12]

"Brewers/Cards have 12 left, so one of them is going to lose"

 

The trouble for the Reds is they have to overcome both, and one is going to win too. Brewers have 12 games left vs. Astros and Cubs and 9 vs. Pirates who they've owned.

 

I think they'll pass the Bucs, but I don't see them overcoming either the Brewers or the Cards much less both.

[Tbadder]

When I saw them the other day against the Mets, they were awful. They were phoning it in, making mistakes, whiny-pouty body language. I wouldn't be surprised if they went 14-14 in August even if they are playing mostly little leaguers. I think they'll stay in 4th.

[brwrsfan]

I'm not saying it's plausible, but they do have a super easy schedule going forward and could make a run.

[rluzinski]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

6.5 games back with 54 to play. They have to jump over three teams. It's not impossible but it's sure unlikely.

[pebadger]

If any team 6.5 back and trailing 3 teams has a shot, it would be the Reds on the basis of schedule. I don't think it will happen. Not because they won't win a bunch, but because I don't think they can avoid the one cold stretch that is all it will take to torpedo them.

 

Just for giggles let's give them a 9-3 record (heavy in wins against Pittsburgh) in their games against the Central contenders. And then suppose, in the best case scenario for the Reds, that all the other Central teams play as close to .500 ball against each other as possible.

 

That puts the records at:

 

Mil 74-63

StL 69-64

Pit 64-67

Cin 62-58

 

Now suppose Cinci plays just over .600 ball against everyone else. That puts the Reds at 88 wins.

 

If the Brewers go 14-11 they tie for the division under this scenario. With 9 of those 25 games against the Cubs and Astros and only 4 games against contenders from other divisions (and those 4 are a home series against the Phils).

 

In other words, even in a best case scenario for the Reds in terms of their opponents canceling each other out, the Reds still need to play at a pace better than any team in the NL other than the Phillies have all season, just to give themselves a hope that the Brewers fall down against their own favorable schedule.

[jmeks23]

Well first off the Pirates own the Reds this year for whatever reason. Secondly, we all are saying 'they don't play a team over .500 blah blah blah', well guess what? The Reds aren't even .500 themselves. They aren't that good this year honestly, contrary to how they look when they play the Brewers. Plus they stood pat at the deadline for whatever reason. They have prospects that are 'untouchable' who are MLB ready yet, don't bring them up to the MLB. Their supposed bevy of pitching talent has collapsed on them thus far. Volquez has been ineffective all year, Arroyo sucks, Leake hasn't been nearly as good as last year, Wood sucked, Homer Bailey has sucked, Cueto's been great but was injured for a while, same with Chapman. Not saying these guys don't have talent, but it seems pretty evident to me they have a lot of #3-5 pitchers mixed with Cueto, who seems to have figured it out this year. That's not a recipe for success if you've followed the Brewers the last 5 years.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The Reds remind me of the Brewers of the last couple seasons. Flashes of brilliance, a better than average team with a stud #1 starter...but too many holes to stay consistent. That schedule allows to make up some ground, but the Cards & Brewers schedules aren't much tougher other than having to play each other.

[spalmer69]

I know I was just accepted here so I'm a few days late on this topic but....there is no way my Reds will climb to the top of this division. It has been a pitiful team to watch this season. So very disappointing after last year. You could throw the Astros at us the rest of the way and we still wouldnt even come close. Love my team but it has been PATHETIC this year.

[Ennder]

They still have a chance, it just isn't a very good chance. Teams turn things around randomly all the time so how they have played this year means a lot less to me than how much talent they have and they have plenty of talent.

[spalmer69]

They still have a chance, it just isn't a very good chance. Teams turn things around randomly all the time so how they have played this year means a lot less to me than how much talent they have and they have plenty of talent.

and I would respectfully agree with that if it weren't for little league base running errors, throwing to the wrong bases, missing cutoff men etc etc etc. You can't get into August and have your team still making boneheaded mental mistakes. I would expect some of that in April. Not at this point in the season. I mean, it happened in our last (losing) series with Houston these past 3 days. You just cant do that type of stuff and expect to pull yourself out of a 7 game hole.

[DHonks]

my fear with the Reds is that we haven't beaten them much the last few years. We've handled the Cards and crushed the Pirates....but the Reds give us problems

[igor67]

The Reds do have the constellation of players a team would need to really come roaring back into it. It's not terribly likely, but it could happen.

[strawbossisevil]

[quote name= Ennder]They still have a chance, it just isn't a very good chance. Teams turn things around randomly all the time so how they have played this year means a lot less to me than how much talent they have and they have plenty of talent.

[rluzinski]

my fear with the Reds is that we haven't beaten them much the last few years. We've handled the Cards and crushed the Pirates....but the Reds give us problems

I never worry about that kind of stuff. To a very large degree, it's based on the relative team strengths and luck. That's why when you look at Vegas lines, they don't consider that kind of stuff. Of course, the 1-900 numbers you can call for gambling advice will tell you that it does!