Wild Card Watch

[Bernman23]

The Brewers are now 2nd in the Wild Card standings, 3 games out of 1st after the Braves lost today.

 

The Wild Card became an afterthought for a while, but it's becoming more and more of a realistic fallback option to make the playoffs. Both the Brewers and Cardinals should pick up games on the Braves if there is a fair amount of parity in their head to head match-ups. Most of the games the rest of the way are inter-divisional match-ups, and of course the East is a lot better than the Central.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yeah, the Braves are gonna struggle to score runs right now. The addition of Bourne helps, but at this point, they're certainly not out of reach.

[pebadger]

The Wildcard race is a nice fallback to have, but I really want no part of second place. First, because I think it's still probably a longshot for the WC to come out of the Central. Second, it's second place. At some point the Brewers need to win this division. It's there to be had. Two division titles in the history of the franchise probably isn't much to ask.

 

I'd rather the team focus on winning the division and then catching the Giants rather than catching the Braves.

[Raw Biz]

The Wildcard race is a nice fallback to have, but I really want no part of second place. First, because I think it's still probably a longshot for the WC to come out of the Central. Second, it's second place. At some point the Brewers need to win this division. It's there to be had. Two division titles in the history of the franchise probably isn't much to ask.

 

I'd rather the team focus on winning the division and then catching the Giants rather than catching the Braves.

Obviously the team wants to win the division but what if other teams in the division continue to win and suddenly the Central winner has to win in the low 90s. I'm not saying that is going to happen but it's always a possibility and it would be nice if teams like the Braves, Giants, etc. continue to lose to provide that fallback. Basically just keep winning and try to make the playoff anyway possible.

[owbc]

I know it doesn't really matter, but I really want them to take the division. There are still 2 months to go but I already am tempted to get the magic number clock going.

 

Also, the San Francisco Giants are suddenly only 1 1/2 games ahead. Winning the division and finishing with a better record than the Giants means home field advantage in the NLDS.

[Vgmastr]

I know it doesn't really matter, but I really want them to take the division. There are still 2 months to go but I already am tempted to get the magic number clock going.

 

Also, the San Francisco Giants are suddenly only 1 1/2 games ahead. Winning the division and finishing with a better record than the Giants means home field advantage in the NLDS.

It would also mean we get to face the Braves. Not that that's any easy feat, but I'd rather face them instead of the pitching staffs of the Phillies or Giants.

[RockCoCougars]

Yes, the wildcard is a viable option- I've been cheering against the Braves pretty hard for the past month or so. People weren't considering this in '08 either until the Mets imploded. To me, playoffs are playoffs, I could really care less about the matchups.

[fondybrewfan]

I don't know that it matters if you are playing the Phillies, Braves, or Giants in the first round; they all have crazy good teams (Although I would prefer the Giants, Braves, Phillies in that order). Whats more important, especially considering our home/road splits is to somehow get ahead of the Giants & Braves so we are hosting.

 

I still think with our pitching that we could shut down Atlanta or SF; I am not quite so confident in shutting down the Phils. If I had to choose I would also rather face Lincecum and Cain / Jurrjens and Hanson than Halladay & Lee

[And That]

FWIW, as of this morning Baseball Prospectus gives the Brewers 2.2% odds of making the playoffs via Wild Card. The Braves have the starting pitching to weather offensive droughts and their bullpen is fantastic. They sit at 71.5% odds to reach the playoffs via Wild Card. It'll be tough, if not impossible, for the Brewers to make up that gap.

 

They give the Brewers 61.6% odds of winning the division.

[Yeti73]

Tons of games left to play. I'm sure we'll have another disappointing spell as well as another little hot streak, just depends which is longer. If we continue to beat up the bottem feeders, we'll be in great shape because our schedule is pretty easy. So long as we don't lose any more players to the DL, I like our chance, but you never know.

 

Once the playoffs start, anything can happen and it'd be great to add a banner into left field.

[endaround]

FWIW, as of this morning Baseball Prospectus gives the Brewers 2.2% odds of making the playoffs via Wild Card. The Braves have the starting pitching to weather offensive droughts and their bullpen is fantastic. They sit at 71.5% odds to reach the playoffs via Wild Card. It'll be tough, if not impossible, for the Brewers to make up that gap.

 

They give the Brewers 61.6% odds of winning the division.

Yeah but that percentage only occurs where the Cardinals finish ahead of the Brewers for the division while the Brewers still finish ahead of the Braves. Most likely if the Brewers have a better record than the Braves they'll win the division. The Cardinals have a 4.0% shot at the WC after all.

[And That]

Those are good points, but they have the Braves winning 4 more games than the Brewers. That's because the two teams have essentially equal talent on their teams. Brewers need luck to make up ground.

[davego]

Just. Get. In.

[BadgerFan]

Just. Get. In.

^^^^This^^^^

[craigharmann]

I think they'll win the division. The Pirates are still a year away, the Cards bullpen needs help, and they really just have Poo, Holliday and Berkman as the only decent hitters in their lineup.

[The Truth]

I think they'll win the division. The Pirates are still a year away, the Cards bullpen needs help, and they really just have Poo, Holliday and Berkman as the only decent hitters in their lineup.

And the mighty Rafael Furcal, for at least 1/3 to 2/3 of the remaining season, depending on injuries, slumps, the cycles of the moon and whatever else rules Furcal's inconsistent career path

[Bernman23]

Those are good points, but they have the Braves winning 4 more games than the Brewers. That's because the two teams have essentially equal talent on their teams. Brewers need luck to make up ground.

They get it in the form of comparative schedules, or at least the luck starts to even out. The Braves have played the least inter-division games of any NL East team, and in those games they are 21-18. The Brewers are 26-17 and most of their remaining games are inter-division. 10 games left with the Pirates. They are going to rip them apart, so hard. Also, the Brewers got gouged more in Inter-league because they had to play the Yankees and Red Sox on the road. There is no inter-league play the rest of the way.

 

BTW, it would have been adjusted to a 3-game difference after today.

 

If we don't get hammered head to head by the Cardinals, and St. Louis gets hot outside those games, we will probably still win the Wild Card.

[strawbossisevil]

Their 3B is hitting pretty well, as well. I think the Cards have the better offense. I like our pitching staff better than theirs mainly because our bullpen is a bit better.

 

Either way, it should be a fun home-stretch.

[brwrsfan]

Braves lost again tonight, pulls us within 2 of them at this point. The WC is still possibly an option if we don't get the division.

[brwrsfan]

I know nobody wants to think about the WC at this point, but we've now pulled even with the Braves. It obviously wouldn't be as nice as winning the division, but it potentially could still get us into the playoffs if we falter and lose the division down the stretch. Obviously this could lose us the WC slot as well, but it would be nice to have 2 chances to make the playoffs.

[MoreTrife]

at this point if we lose the division it means we are really struggling which means we will likely fall behind atlanta again.

[cubfan1126]

If our pathetic 15 games under .500 team can take 2 of 3 in Atlanta, your guys should have no trouble whatsoever with them.

[brwrsfan]

Yes, we would struggle and lose the division, but there is no reason to think that Atlanta couldn't struggle as well. It's a least a possiblilty that they played just as poorly as we do down the stretch. It's something to watch as a fallback option I think, and we've now pulled even with them.

[OglivieHomePerm]

Yes, the wildcard is a fallback....but the odds of us ending up with the wildcard are very slim. The Brewers, Braves, and either the Giants or the D-Backs would all have to struggle down the stretch for it to happen.

 

BP currently has the brewers winning the wild card only 2.2% of the time. The good news is that we win the division 86% of the time....so I can live with that.

 

Crazy things happen in sports....and the Brewers winning the wild card this year would qualify as something crazy.

[monty57]

The Brewers, Braves, and either the Giants or the D-Backs would all have to struggle down the stretch for it to happen.

 

Or the Brewers play decent, but the Cards go on a Rockies-esque finish to the season to take the Central. Other than head-to-head with the Brewers, the Cards have played very well lately. Thankfully, the Brewers have taken 4-of-6 of the head-to-head games and pulled out to a five game lead. These games are fun to watch, but I won't be comfortable until the Magic Number thread shows a picture of Robert Parrish.