Disappointed in Brewers Deadline Moves

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure I understand why people keep talking about Mark A's deep pockets all the time? He's not paying anyone directly out of his pocket, and if the organization ends up in the red he just borrows against the value of the franchise to meet payroll.

 

He bought the team, but he's certainly not paying anyone out of his own checking account.

[TheCrew]

I'm not sure I understand why people keep talking about Mark A's deep pockets all the time? He's not paying anyone directly out of his pocket, and if the organization ends up in the red he just borrows against the value of the franchise to meet payroll.

 

He bought the team, but he's certainly not paying anyone out of his own checking account.

I brought it up because he had to approve the K-Rod deal. From the sounds of it, Melvin didn't do much except bring it to Mark to get approved. Probably a good thing because I doubt Melvin was creative enough to put that together.

 

Unless

Axford got hurt within 2 weeks of KRod coming over, there was almost no

risk with that option. And in the end, there's ZERO risk if Mark A

wanted it to be zero.

Ummm - no. If Axford got hurt, and they used a different guy then K-Rod it would run the risk of a grievance and I can't see the Brewers winning that one. It, in fact, came with a TON of risk - $17.5 million dollars worth next season - which of course, all went away once K-Rod agreed to waive the option next year.

 

I know some think that the Brewers could have plugged Saito in there or whoever they wanted and it would have been fine - but that would all hinge on whether K-Rod would fight it and with Boras as his agent......... Never the less, I'm glad it's a road that that Brewers never have to go down because it could (and I stress could) have ended badly and left the Brewers in a no-win situation next year.

[TheCrew]

It's from the movie The Princess Bride. And it's dumb. Why can't we just refer to him as Roenicke? Nicknames can be funny but sometimes it gets annoying when people try to come up with "clever" nicknames for the entire organization.

Great point RBT!

[homer]

It's from the movie The Princess Bride. And it's dumb. Why can't we just refer to him as Roenicke? Nicknames can be funny but sometimes it gets annoying when people try to come up with "clever" nicknames for the entire organization.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_wBT9om5vlsE/TTouCqYnHKI/AAAAAAAAB5U/8kCkd9n-8eQ/s320/debbie_downer.jpg

[rluzinski]

Ummm - no. If Axford got hurt, and they used a different guy then K-Rod it would run the risk of a grievance and I can't see the Brewers winning that one. It, in fact, came with a TON of risk - $17.5 million dollars worth next season - which of course, all went away once K-Rod agreed to waive the option next year.

 

If Axford would have gotten hurt the DAY the KRod was traded for, KRod could have still gotten plenty of save opportunities. I would have loved to see KRod file a grievance for "only" getting twenty save opportunities out of thirty-some appearances. It's one thing to sign a guy to be your closer and bench him with a couple of saves to go before a vested option; it's quite another to trade for a guy to be your setup man and because of injury, give him some save opportunities. Is there a precedent of a player winning a grivance in a situation even remotely similar? What are you basing your claim that he would have a good chance of winning on?

 

So multiply the odds of Axford having a season ending injury within, say three weeks by the the odds that KRod files a grievance by the odds that he wins the grievance by ($17.5 - KRod's worth to the Brewers next year) and that's what The Brewers were risking. Making up some super-conservative numbers as an illustration:

 

25% x 50% x %50% x ($17.5 - $5 mil) < $1 mil.

 

In reality, I would put the odds of KRod winning a grievance at near zero but regardless, the risk was low.

[TheCrew]

If Axford would have gotten hurt the DAY the KRod was traded for, KRod could have still gotten plenty of save opportunities. I would have loved to see KRod file a grievance for "only" getting twenty save opportunities out of thirty-some appearances. It's one thing to sign a guy to be your closer and bench him with a couple of saves to go before a vested option; it's quite another to trade for a guy to be your setup man and because of injury, give him some save opportunities. Is there a precedence of a player winning a grivance in a situation even remotely similar?

 

So multiply the odds of Axford having a season ending injury within, say three weeks by the the odds that KRod files a grievance by the odds that he wins the grievance by ($17.5 - KRod's worth to the Brewers next year) and that's what The Brewers were risking. Making up some super-conservative numbers as an illustration:

 

25% x 50% x %50% x ($17.5 - $5 mil) < $1 mil.

 

In reality, I would put the odds of KRod winning a grievance at near zero but regardless, the risk was low.

You can't not play players to avoid paying options/bonuses and it wasn't just save opp., it was finishing out games.

 

If K-Rod could prove the Brewers were going with a lesser option in these situations (Saito would be a lesser option imo)........ really wouldn't be hard for him to win such a grievance. All he'd have to say is "Hey, who has the most saves in baseball over the past 5 season? ............ oh, me..... awesome, how many does Saito have? A handful............. hmmm, that is odd. He's not young either, so please Brewers organization, explain why you would go with a guy who is older, not signed for next season and has a fraction of the saves I have over the past 5 years and limited experience in closing games?"

 

The point is it came with a lot of risk, you really think the Brewers were the only team the Mets called looking to do this? It was reported a few teams weren't interested or turned the Mets away - the team with the deepest pockets in the league were one of these teams(Yankees). Bottom line is, in a worse case scenario - and yes, I realize a lot would have had to happen to get to the worse case - the Brewers organization could have been hampered severely next year if the option vested and it would have made it fiscally difficult to resign Marcum/Greinke and would have all but guaranteed Prince's departure. It could have been a huge blow to the Brewers and I think it gets overlooked by almost everyone.

 

Agree to disagree, either way I don't see any point in continuing this because it doesn't even matter as:

- Ax is kicking ass

- K-Rod dropped the option

[gregmag]

Doesn't it seem likely that, when the Brewers traded for Rodriguez, they already had a pretty good idea that they could/would bargain the option away? If so, then the Brewers never really undertook that risk, however big or small it was.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure I understand why people keep talking about Mark A's deep pockets all the time? He's not paying anyone directly out of his pocket, and if the organization ends up in the red he just borrows against the value of the franchise to meet payroll.

 

He bought the team, but he's certainly not paying anyone out of his own checking account.

I brought it up because he had to approve the K-Rod deal. From the sounds of it, Melvin didn't do much except bring it to Mark to get approved. Probably a good thing because I doubt Melvin was creative enough to put that together.

Regardless it has nothing to do with deep pockets, just a calculated risk. I realize this is a matter personal preference but I'm not thrilled about the idea of borrowing against the value of the franchise either, I'd rather they actively look to reduce the debt than operate right on the edge of profitability as they have since 2007.

[endaround]

They've been insanely profitable. And who cares if they run operating deficits each year when the franchise value continues to climb?

[TheCrew]

Regardless it has nothing to do with deep pockets, just a calculated risk. I realize this is a matter personal preference but I'm not thrilled about the idea of borrowing against the value of the franchise either, I'd rather they actively look to reduce the debt than operate right on the edge of profitability as they have since 2007.

I was summarizing and yes, it has everything to do with available funds. It might not come directly out of Mark A's pockets, but - correct me if I'm wrong - at the end of the day, he would have the yes/no say on whether the Brewers would take on the salary and he is (for lack of a better term) the "face" of that money being paid out to players.

 

My main point was that I don't think Melvin did much to make that trade happen.

[dlk9s]

Dread Pirate Roenicke... because he makes logan say "inconceivable!" so often.

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/158/11088121348889101550027.jpg

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

They've been insanely profitable. And who cares if they run operating deficits each year when the franchise value continues to climb?

People thought the same things when housing prices were going up every year. The McCourts took out money to pay themselves instead of the players...look where that got them.

Yes, they've made money on the increase in franchise value and probably some equity levered returns through debt paydown, but I doubt they've been insanely profitable. Given their payroll and revenue base, the margins are probably low. Mark A and the ownership group deserve a ton of credit for plowing the revenue back into the team and the fans in Milwaukee deserve a ton of credit for supporting the team. Everyone has done their share to put a winner on the field.

[Funketown]

Hairston now has 14 AB's in his six games as a Brewer, with his only two starts coming in CF. Counsell is starting at 3B today, Yuni at SS, and Lopez at 2B.

 

He's a better hitter than McGehee, Betancourt, and Lopez. He's a better fielder than McGehee, Betancourt, and Lopez. Anybody know why he isn't playing?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Hairston now has 14 AB's in his six games as a Brewer, with his only two starts coming in CF. Counsell is starting at 3B today, Yuni at SS, and Lopez at 2B.

 

He's a better hitter than McGehee, Betancourt, and Lopez. He's a better fielder than McGehee, Betancourt, and Lopez. Anybody know why he isn't playing?

He's not a gritty battler?

 

I have no idea, honestly.

[Funketown]

Hairston is pretty much the definition of a grizzled veteran though. He has a K-Rate <12%, has played for 8 different teams, and has nearly 1000 base hits in his career. He doesn't hit for power but has a good eye at the plate. He's also only 5'10" and can play multiple positions. He's an epic gamer.

[DougJones43]

He's a better hitter than McGehee, Betancourt, and Lopez. He's a better fielder than McGehee, Betancourt, and Lopez. Anybody know why he isn't playing?

He's also a better hitter and fielder than Kotsay, but that doesn't seem to matter either as Kotsay is batting 5th today. And I bet we still haven't seen the last of Kotsay in CF this season.

[monty57]

This is why I wanted to see them keep Carroll and dump Counsellor or Wilson. In Roenicke's eyes, Hairston has replaced Gomez, and no one else's roles have changed. While he should start every day at multiple positions, he will be relegated to being the small part of the CF platoon.

[logan82]

Dread Pirate Roenicke... because he makes logan say "inconceivable!" so often.

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/158/11088121348889101550027.jpg

Wrong guy.

[dlk9s]

Yes, I know. The important thing is the face he's making.

[RightFieldCoder]

Doesn't it seem likely that, when the Brewers traded for Rodriguez, they already had a pretty good idea that they could/would bargain the option away? If so, then the Brewers never really undertook that risk, however big or small it was.

I wasn't watching this thread, but this article I linked to in the Random News thread answers the Rodriguez questions. It was a trade that fell into Melvin's lap.