Disappointed in Brewers Deadline Moves

[logan82]

So who was RR supposed to use in the 8th inning? Saito and Hawkins were hurt and missed a lot of games

 

At what point was Hawkins unavailable this year?

[Bombers]

I am jumping for joy the Brewers didn't wait until the All-star break to suddenly "improve" your team for a two month stretch. They improved our team last off season which is way better than waiting until the end of July. You have no idea how players will do over any given 2 month stretch. Over the course of a year, you can get a better estimate as cold and hot streaks happen all the time but usually don't last a whole year. (unless you are named McGehee) ...

 

I am glad the Cardinals waited until August to finally improve their starting rotation. How many starts is Jackson going to get, 11? IMO, it is tough to pull a 2008 Sabathia and have him go 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Sabathia got 17 starts, Jackson will not. Like I said, he is looking at 11 GS for the rest of the year. Even if he goes to 3 days rest in Sept, maybe he gets to 13, 14? I am good and am all for them dumping Rasmus.

I agree with the bolded part, not sure why you would put improve in quotes though - are you mocking that these trades improve teams? Either way, you lost me after that...... you seem to be implying that making deadline deals won't impact a club?

 

Anyhow, Yes, Melvin improved the worst part of this team during the offseason. He has done very little since then and has not improved the next worse things in the 8 months since then - I give Mark A far more credit in the K-Rod deal since that really came down to salary and how deep Mark A's pockets went. Outside of that, Melvin hasn't done much - Hairston was a solid move but it would have been far better if that was the complimentary move to a full time replacement for McGehee.

 

The Cards also don't need Jackson to have a Sabathia like season - the Brewers were melting down and CC saved them that season. He HAD to go on 3 days rest or the Brewers miss the playoffs. As much as I dislike the Cards, when I look at things objectively - I see them as a far more balanced and experienced team than the 2008 Brewers.

Didn't mean to mock, more meant it as a deadline deal is NOT a guarenteed success which it appears some believe it is almost guaranteed. I remember the Linebrink trade. (I guess some could argue we gave nothing away but it still didn't work.) Who knows what Furcal and Edwin Jackson do for the cards. IMO trading rasmus for Jackson was not a good move. I don't know their minor leaguers they gave up for Furcal but I have a feeling they over paid. I certainly would not have traded Thornburg or Rivas straight up for Furcal, which in reading the trade threads it seemed like they were asking for a large return.

 

I would argue against the thought that Melvin has done little since the Greinke / Marcum trades, as I wouldn't call Morgan nor K-rod, minor acquisitions. The Morgan one might have been at the time, but it certainly isn't one now. And sure Mark A agreed to the K-rod trade, but Melvin is the one who found it, made it work, presented it, and executed it before the rest of the league could sneeze.

 

and I agree with your last comment, the 2011 Cards are more balanced than the 2008 Brewers but then what is their expectations for 11 starts of Jackson? How many more wins does he provide over replacement level (especially at the expense of Rasmus?)

[fondybrewfan]

I hope Hairston gets some start at 2nd; I know small sample size or whatever but Lopez has been kind of ehhh to me. He atleast shouldn't be hitting 5th. I know it is a shock but considering the circumstances I wouldn't putting McGehee back in that spot. He is hitting the ball a lot harder recently

[danzig6767]

So if Yuni lacks the physical ability to be a ss, how did he make it this far for this long as a ss? Plenty of athletic players wee drafted as ss, but they were pretty quickly moved to 2nd, LF, or 3B as they advanced through the ranks.

 

Both Jerry Hairston and Brian Roberts were originally ss at about the same time in the Baltimore organization. Even though they could have gone with one at ss and one at 2nd and kept them both, it was decided neither were adequate ss. And these guys are pretty athletic. I know the Orioles are the sharpest minds in baseball, but once again, how did these guys get moved, and Yuni has remained a ss all these years? Shouldn't have been moved to 3B back in AAA?

General managers in all sports regularly make very poor decisions. Hell, John Hammond the Bucks GM pulled a mind bogglingly dumb decision to give Drew Gooden a 5yr deal worth nearly 35 million dollars.

 

Well, i don't know who was the Seattle GM when Yuni was given a 4yr/14 million dollar deal, but he pretty quickly realized that it was a mistake, yet he found a taker in Kansas City who watched Betancourt play, and yet still traded for him. Then in another real head scratching move, Melvin regardless of if he had to take Yuni in the Greinke trade or if he chose to, Doug still was willing to go into this season with Betancourt as his everyday shortstop. Doug had to have the data available which has chronicled just how poorly the defensive metrics have said he's been defensively for years now. Lots of people who watched Yuni move more like a plow-horse than a thoroughbred at SS for their teams also said he had no range. There was no case of conflicting views where people watching Betancourt thought he had terrible range, but the metrics said differently.

 

Well, Melvin simply chose to ignore both the defensive metrics which said Yuni was terrible and those who watched him play. The same thing happened in KC where Betancourt was stinking up the joint and still being thrown out there everyday. So to answer your question as to why Yuni Betancourt has managed to keep an everyday job this long at shortstop even though for years he's shown terrible range and yearly carried a sub-.300 OBP, my answer would simply be terrible decision making by those choosing to making him their everyday shortstop. Bad decisions happen all the time in baseball, even by those being paid a lot of money to do nothing, but study baseball and that have multiple scouts at their disposal.

[Raw Biz]

So if Yuni lacks the physical ability to be a ss, how did he make it this far for this long as a ss? Plenty of athletic players wee drafted as ss, but they were pretty quickly moved to 2nd, LF, or 3B as they advanced through the ranks.

 

Both Jerry Hairston and Brian Roberts were originally ss at about the same time in the Baltimore organization. Even though they could have gone with one at ss and one at 2nd and kept them both, it was decided neither were adequate ss. And these guys are pretty athletic. I know the Orioles are the sharpest minds in baseball, but once again, how did these guys get moved, and Yuni has remained a ss all these years? Shouldn't have been moved to 3B back in AAA?

Well, Melvin simply chose to ignore both the defensive metrics which said Yuni was terrible and those who watched him play. The same thing happened in KC where Betancourt was stinking up the joint and still being thrown out there everyday. So to answer your question as to why Yuni Betancourt has managed to keep an everyday job this long at shortstop even though for years he's shown terrible range and yearly carried a sub-.300 OBP, my answer would simply be terrible decision making by those choosing to making him their everyday shortstop. Bad decisions happen all the time in baseball, even by those being paid a lot of money to do nothing, but study baseball and that have multiple scouts at their disposal.

To be fair, I don't really know if Melvin pays attention to defensive metrics to begin with, considering many think they are flawed. It might've just been a matter of ignoring defensive metrics (or paying little attention to them) and just figuring his offense would outweigh his defense.

[LouisEly]

So who was RR supposed to use in the 8th inning? Saito and Hawkins were hurt and missed a lot of games

 

At what point was Hawkins unavailable this year?

Pretty much the whole month of April. And he was on light duty his first month or so back.

[TracyThom]

If nothing happens in the next 17 minutes, I don't see the Brewers making the playoffs.

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http://www.glogster.com/media/1/3/12/96/3129608.jpg

 

 

[monty57]

To be fair, I don't really know if Melvin pays attention to defensive metrics to begin with, considering many think they are flawed.

 

Considering how poorly the Brewers have played defense in Melvin's tenure, your statement may be the biggest arguement in favor of defensive metrics I've seen :-)

 

Melvin commented before the season that he'd heard everyone calling Yuni the worst player in baseball. Of course he had to defend his player, but he knew he was bad. In the massive Yuni thread, it has been argued that there were not really many options prior to the season, and it appears most options at the deadline were pricier than Melvin wanted to pay. Would anyone be happy if we landed Jamey Carroll or Furcal, but it cost us Thornberg or Gamel?

 

He picked up an upgrade at SS (and 2B & 3B) in Hairston, but unfortunately it looks like he's going to be relegated to the small half of a CF platoon at least until (if) Gomez comes back from his injury. As far as picking up players, I think Melvin did fine. It's dealing with call-ups and send-downs that he's made some questionable decisions.

[endaround]

JHJ was available before the season.

[logan82]

So who was RR supposed to use in the 8th inning? Saito and Hawkins were hurt and missed a lot of games

 

At what point was Hawkins unavailable this year?

Pretty much the whole month of April. And he was on light duty his first month or so back.

So Hawkins was available at full strength all of June yet DPR never bothered to put him in as the 8th inning guy despite Loe not being the right guy for that role. We made a move to protect DPR from himself. That is sad.

[monty57]

JHJ was available before the season.

I was hesitant to write my last post, as I don't want to get this to morph further into the 50-page Yuni thread.

 

JHJ is now a Brewer, so he should be more than the small half of the CF platoon. If that's all he's going to be, then I wish we hadn't given up Komatsu to get him. If he is allowed to start on most days, playing all over the field (which he has proven he can do), then he will probably have been worth giving up last year's Minor League Player of the Year.

 

It would have been really easy to cut Counsell and keep Carroll up to play CF once a week or so, while Hairston spends time at SS/2B/3B/CF (all positions where he's an upgrade). Instead, it seems Melvin wants to see if Counsell can go down in history as having the worst offensive season in the history of baseball. When your futility is breaking records set in the "dead ball era," it's time to hang 'em up.

 

Once Weeks and Gomez are back, I like our lineup (if it's used correctly). Yuni, Hairston and Lopez can play SS to some degree, which make Counsell and Wilson useless. However, Roenicke will make sure to keep putting Counsell on the field as long as he's on the roster. We need to dump them to increase the talent on our roster, and then maximize that talent by playing our best players.

[rluzinski]

I hope Hairston gets some start at 2nd; I know small sample size or whatever but Lopez has been kind of ehhh to me. He atleast shouldn't be hitting 5th. I know it is a shock but considering the circumstances I wouldn't putting McGehee back in that spot. He is hitting the ball a lot harder recently

Lopez:

10-11: .229/.296/.336/.632 (503 AB)

ZiPS ROS Projection: .246/.306/.344/.650

Lopez had a very nice 2009 season (.310/.383/.427/.810) but has done very little since. Why Roenicke see's it fit to bat him 5th is a complete mystery.

 

[razzzorsharp]

Duh, that's where 2B hit.

[RockCoCougars]

I made that same argument on this board in 2002. I presented as much evidence as you did as well. Since then, I've studied the matter a lot and realized just how wrong I was.

You are correct that defense is not even 50% of the game but it is still very important. Every non-out made by Betancourt represents about 2/3rds of a run on average. That includes the obvious errors and the not-as-obvious 5 hopper that skitters between Betancourt and 2B. Even if Betancourt only makes 1 less out than an average SS every 5 games, that's still about 20 runs and 2 wins over a full season, which is a hell of a lot. That's the difference between an average major leaguer and a perennial minor leaguer. It's the difference between 87 wins and the playoffs and 85 wins and sitting at home.

I hear you, but what is the major indicator of 'defense' that we are using? I quoted the term defense, because I would take it mostly to be runs scored against as opposed to fielding metrics. From this reasoning, I would say that good pitching would not only reduce the runs scored against per game, but it would also serve as a type of equalizer by overcoming poor defense. To me, unearned runs would be a good measure of this (yes, I'm old school). To my surprise, the Brewers are actually 11th/15, while arguably the two best teams in the N.L. are 1/2 (Phi, Atl) so the poor defense arguments seem to have merit. At the same time, I would argue that every team makes errors, so things would tend to even out over the course of a season for the most part unless the team is exceedingly brutal at fielding. Even though the unearned runs are high, it seems that this season the Brewers have benefited more than not by crucial errors and/or misplays.

I usually use the term "defense" to describe the combination of pitching and fielding, so we are in agreement there. And yes, good pitching can somewhat negate bad fielding, especially if it is in the form of a high strikeout rotation (limit number of balls in play).

I really wouldn't use unearned runs, as it actually rewards teams who employ defenders with terrible range. If we are not concerned about uncoupling fielding from pitching, "defensive efficiency" is a good metric to look at it. It is simply the percentage of balls in play that are converted into outs:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tm	DefEff ?
	.694
CIN	.709
PHI	.705
ATL	.704
SFG	.704
ARI	.701
SDP	.698
FLA	.695
LAD	.694
NYM	.694
WSN	.694
LgAvg	.694
COL	.693
PIT	.693
STL	.693
MIL	.689
HOU	.675
CHC	.669

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 8/1/2011.

Everything equal, things do even themselves out over a season but the Brewers are not "equal". Melvin has a lot of batters in the everyday lineup who projected to be below average defenders before the season even started (Hart, Braun, McHehee, Fielder, Betancourt, in rough order of increased defensive ineptitude). I haven't seen anything this year that suggests those projections were wrong. The Brewers offense has been above average but the positional players have not been above average after you consider their fielding. The Brewers have the opportunity to improve their fielding with the additions of Lopez and Hairston but I don't believe they realize how bad their fielding has been.

 

Interesting, thanks. Looks like I have some rainy day reading to do. Some day I will have to read the 'other' part of my Historical Baseball Abstract.

[TheCrew]

Didn't mean to mock, more meant it as a deadline deal is NOT a guarenteed success which it appears some believe it is almost guaranteed. I remember the Linebrink trade. (I guess some could argue we gave nothing away but it still didn't work.) Who knows what Furcal and Edwin Jackson do for the cards. IMO trading rasmus for Jackson was not a good move. I don't know their minor leaguers they gave up for Furcal but I have a feeling they over paid. I certainly would not have traded Thornburg or Rivas straight up for Furcal, which in reading the trade threads it seemed like they were asking for a large return.

 

I would argue against the thought that Melvin has done little since the Greinke / Marcum trades, as I wouldn't call Morgan nor K-rod, minor acquisitions. The Morgan one might have been at the time, but it certainly isn't one now. And sure Mark A agreed to the K-rod trade, but Melvin is the one who found it, made it work, presented it, and executed it before the rest of the league could sneeze.

 

and I agree with your last comment, the 2011 Cards are more balanced than the 2008 Brewers but then what is their expectations for 11 starts of Jackson? How many more wins does he provide over replacement level (especially at the expense of Rasmus?)

I agree the Cards gave up a ton in Rasmus - but there is a lot more to that story with Rasmus/TLR........ even though it's only a half season rental, getting a top 20 pitcher and some comp picks back (along with a reliever and 4th OF'er) isn't a bad haul by any stretch. I've always thought Rasmus was over rated and was arrogant, hoenstly he reminds me of an older version of his new teammate that we traded away this spring.

 

Anyhow, I'm getting off track, it would not have cost us Thornburg or Rivas for Furcal. Cardinals got him for a fringe outfield prospect and ate some salary. Brewers could have easily got him cheap - maybe it was something in the medial records that scared them off, only time will tell if that was the right decision.

 

Morgan was a great pickup but he is also a perfect example of why Melvin should have been shopping for a SS - Melvin took a shot on Morgan and gave up a guy that probably won't do much at the big league level, he should have tried the same once or twice at SS/3B throughout the season in my opinion.

 

As for the K-Rod trade, we don't know who called who - for all we know the Mets could have came calling and put everything together and Melvin simply said, let me check with the boss. We flat out don't know, only thing we do know is Mark A opened up the checkbook to make it happen and took on a big risk with the 2012 option. (which is now gone, but it was still big at the time)

[TooLiveBrew]

Duh, that's where 2B hit.

This really made me chuckle.

 

Then it made me sad.

[And That]

I'm curious to hear what DPR stands for. I don't get it.

[rluzinski]

Wow, Roenicke REALLY likes Lopez's bat:

 

"I'm not saying (Lopez) is not good defensively. But mainly why he's in there is because we want him to hit in that spot (5th), which is very difficult mentally. He's hit here before (.320 over a half-season in 2009), so he should be very confident in what he's done for this team."

 

06-08: .266/.336/.372/.709

2009: .310/.383/.427/.810

10-11: .229/.296/.336/.632

 

Lopez is batting 5th because he had one fluke year in 2009. This is why I can NEVER figure out why Roenicke does what he does. Even after he tells you rationale, it still doesn't little sense. He went on to say:

 

"That's the main reason. If I put one of the other guys there (Jerry Hairston Jr., Craig Counsell and Josh Wilson), I probably wouldn't hit him fifth."

 

I think it's pretty clear that Hairston isn't going to play much. Probably just against lefties in CF.

[TooLiveBrew]

Dread Pirate Roenicke... because he makes logan say "inconceivable!" so often.

[pitchleague]

As for the K-Rod trade, we don't know who called who - for all we know the Mets could have came calling and put everything together and Melvin simply said, let me check with the boss. We flat out don't know, only thing we do know is Mark A opened up the checkbook to make it happen and took on a big risk with the 2012 option. (which is now gone, but it was still big at the time)

I swear I read somewhere or heard on MLB Radio that Melvin was quoted as saying the Mets called him and the deal went down pretty much how you described it. So, I guess we do know who called who.

[kramnoj]

Melvin said that Alderson called him to make the deal.

 

That doesn't mean that Melvin was walking along the street and a winning lottery ticket blew into his hand. I'm sure Melvin made the rounds, letting teams know that he was looking for bullpen help. Turns out that Melvin didn't spend all his budget before the season and had money left for a smart pickup.

[Gobias Industries]

Dread Pirate Roenicke... because he makes logan say "inconceivable!" so often.

Maybe I'm out of the loop, but I still don't get it.

[kramnoj]

Princess Bride reference.

[Raw Biz]

Dread Pirate Roenicke... because he makes logan say "inconceivable!" so often.

Maybe I'm out of the loop, but I still don't get it.

It's from the movie The Princess Bride. And it's dumb. Why can't we just refer to him as Roenicke? Nicknames can be funny but sometimes it gets annoying when people try to come up with "clever" nicknames for the entire organization.

[rluzinski]

Unless Axford got hurt within 2 weeks of KRod coming over, there was almost no risk with that option. And in the end, there's ZERO risk if Mark A wanted it to be zero.