Disappointed in Brewers Deadline Moves

[TheCrew]

a couple of points, first of all while hairston and lopez aren't headline grabbing moves, they did get the best reliever acquired in july. secondly none of the 3 teams competing with the brewers made an impact acquisition. Lee and Ludwig are shells of their former selfs, while the cards did get dotel, there is a reason why jackson has been traded so many times and furcal is also a shell of his former self. To say that the brewers aren't going to the playoffs because of what they did this weekend, is premature. I'd be more worried if the cards got bell or something.

 

that being said i'm disappointed that they didn't get a lefty reliever, but understand that there wasn't much there.

Jackson is a great pickup - are you really trying to discount him because he has been traded a few times? According to WAR, only 18 pitchers have been better over the past 3 seasons.......... How is that not an impact acquisition? He may not have the namesake of a Beckett or Verlander, but the guy is a front line starter and probably just a notch below the elite guys.

 

I said it in another thread, but it bears repeating - Over the past week, the Cardinals and Pirates both improved. The Brewers did not (due to the Weeks injury).

[rluzinski]

ZiPS wOBA projections for the rest of the season, FWIW:

 

Hairston: .326

McGehee: .312

Betancourt: .301

Lopez: .294

Wilson: .289

Counsell: .287

And Counsell and Lopez might be the only ones who are better defenders? Hairston would really be best utilized at SS and 2B, IMO.

[Bombers]

a couple of points, first of all while hairston and lopez aren't headline grabbing moves, they did get the best reliever acquired in july. secondly none of the 3 teams competing with the brewers made an impact acquisition. Lee and Ludwig are shells of their former selfs, while the cards did get dotel, there is a reason why jackson has been traded so many times and furcal is also a shell of his former self. To say that the brewers aren't going to the playoffs because of what they did this weekend, is premature. I'd be more worried if the cards got bell or something.

 

that being said i'm disappointed that they didn't get a lefty reliever, but understand that there wasn't much there.

Jackson is a great pickup - are you really trying to discount him because he has been traded a few times? According to WAR, only 18 pitchers have been better over the past 3 seasons.......... How is that not an impact acquisition? He may not have the namesake of a Beckett or Verlander, but the guy is a front line starter and probably just a notch below the elite guys.

 

I said it in another thread, but it bears repeating - Over the past week, the Cardinals and Pirates both improved. The Brewers did not (due to the Weeks injury).

I am jumping for joy the Brewers didn't wait until the All-star break to suddenly "improve" your team for a two month stretch. They improved our team last off season which is way better than waiting until the end of July. You have no idea how players will do over any given 2 month stretch. Over the course of a year, you can get a better estimate as cold and hot streaks happen all the time but usually don't last a whole year. (unless you are named McGehee) ...

 

I am glad the Cardinals waited until August to finally improve their starting rotation. How many starts is Jackson going to get, 11? IMO, it is tough to pull a 2008 Sabathia and have him go 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Sabathia got 17 starts, Jackson will not. Like I said, he is looking at 11 GS for the rest of the year. Even if he goes to 3 days rest in Sept, maybe he gets to 13, 14? I am good and am all for them dumping Rasmus.

 

[homer]

Yuni is an incredibly lazy defender which is why he's not very good. He never bends with his knees, he doesn't play low to the ground, which in turn affects everything that he does on defense.

I don't think he's lazy. I just think he's physically incapable of getting to baseballs. He lacks flexibility, he's not all that fast, and he doesn't have quick feet. Lopez was lazy...probably still is. Betancourt is just not a good athlete.

[RockCoCougars]

Though I will grant you that shortstop is the most important defensive position behind catcher, fielding or 'defense' is incredibly overrated here. This isn't football, where defense is probably more than 50%, or even basketball. Good pitching makes up most of the defense in baseball. How many games has the fielding 'defense' cost this team this year? I can think of maybe a couple. To be honest, they've won more games on the opponent's poor defense than they've lost, yet most of the ragging here is on defense. How many games has Kotsay cost this team 'defensively'? I can think of maybe 1 or arguably 2 games that a Yuni error or grounder he let get through may have cost the team the game. If someone is horrible defensively they will become a liability and either play themselves out of a position (Braun at 3rd) or out of the game (Estrada). Most guys are at least passable.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Yuni is an incredibly lazy defender which is why he's not very good. He never bends with his knees, he doesn't play low to the ground, which in turn affects everything that he does on defense.

I don't think he's lazy. I just think he's physically incapable of getting to baseballs. He lacks flexibility, he's not all that fast, and he doesn't have quick feet. Lopez was lazy...probably still is. Betancourt is just not a good athlete.

 

I'd agree with the Crew here. Yuni is about as fundamentally poor of a fielder as you'll ever see. Unlike someone like Braun, he doesn't have the physical skills to make up for his poor technique. You could argue Counsell is well beyond his expiration date, but just watch how he fields a routine grounder versus Yuni. He moves his body in position to take the ball in the middle of his stance, gets his body low and puts his glove out in front. Yuni stands up straight and fields the ball at his side...just terrible fundamentals. By playing more upright he costs himself lateral movement as well. Little league parents should be required to sign a waiver or make their kids wear blindfolds before attending a Brewers game.

 

I think back of when Hardy was here how guys knocked his range. Maybe there was some truth there, but he was so fundamentally sound that he rarely blew anything in his range. Despite being one of the slowest land mammals on the planet, the guy was a plus fielder.

[kramnoj]

Hell, he said that getting KRod filled their greatest need. It's very frustrating.

 

Since making that trade, the Brewers are 11 and 4. It is quite possible that shoring up the bullpen really was the most immediate need.

[joepepsi]

So if Yuni lacks the physical ability to be a ss, how did he make it this far for this long as a ss? Plenty of athletic players wee drafted as ss, but they were pretty quickly moved to 2nd, LF, or 3B as they advanced through the ranks.

 

Both Jerry Hairston and Brian Roberts were originally ss at about the same time in the Baltimore organization. Even though they could have gone with one at ss and one at 2nd and kept them both, it was decided neither were adequate ss. And these guys are pretty athletic. I know the Orioles are the sharpest minds in baseball, but once again, how did these guys get moved, and Yuni has remained a ss all these years? Shouldn't have been moved to 3B back in AAA?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

As far as the trades, I think DM got as much as could be reasonably expected. Factoring in the off-season trades and the substantial cost in prospects they had to pay, they were devoid of the amount of chips that others had.

 

Greinke, Marcum, Plush, K-Rod, Saito and now decent little pickups with JHJ & Lopez. All nice jobs. If there is a weakness it was 1) Replacing Yuni. There were better chances to do this before the season. I hope his recent regression to his below average mean didn't keep them from making a move, but they should have been more realistic in what they had before the season started. 2) LH reliever. DM couldn't have known before the season that their LH options would drop the way they have. My guess is he tried, but the price was dear and there wasn't much out there. 3) RH power bench bat. Would've been nice if the price was right.

 

Overall a decent job by DM, but the SS situation does leave them open. Also, the Cards may have given up too much in Rasmus, but they have really improved their pitching weaknesses with their trades. Furcal offers some upside as well. This division will likely be decided on the field in 12 games with the Cards.

[FVBrewerFan]

KRod has done his job in 6 out of 8 appearances. That's ok, but it's not great. He's a marginal upgrade, not this huge win a lot of people are making it out to be. If Loe blew 25% of his 8th inning outings over the last couple weeks, BF.net nation would be all over him.

[pebadger]

I don't think it was the most immediate need but I think adding KRod may have been the most efficient immediate solution to multiple problems confronting the team.

 

If you don't think 1 move is going to cure the Brewers inability to score runs when the big guys aren't hitting, and if you understand that no one move is going to make any significant difference in terms of team defense, then picking up K-Rod does a lot.

 

The Brewers have lost a lot of games late. Now where the "blame" goes for those losses is subject to debate, but if you think you can shorten games by two innings on the back end, and you think that you will consistenly get 6+ inning starts from the rotation, you have suddenly minimized the other problems this team faces. Indirect minimization of those defects through the addition of a really good player is likely a much better strategy for the Brewers than trying to address the big problems head-on. First, they simply don't have the resources to address all the problems directly. Second, even with the resources at hand the Brewers weren't going to find a SS or 3B who is as good at his job as KRod is at his. Not to mention the fact that had DM spent his bankroll he wouldn't hve had much available in the way of upgrading depth, or addressing emergencies (such as the Weeks injury).

 

Now you can quibble with DM's apparent philosophy and views with respect to vets vs rookies, and that. ;-) But if you look at what he's done in this light, I think what he did makes a lot of sense. They will get more help in September. They have not turned the club upside down or disrupted the cluhouse. They're stil in good shape in terms of the postseason.. Their hopes for success in the postseason pretty much rely on the starters and the stars anyway.

 

This is a different discussion from the longer range questions about organization building. Certainly they are related, but at this point going forward to the end of the season that's really all water under the bridge. Provided they didn't give away anything meaningful in acquiring K-Rod the equation for next season seems to be pretty much unchanged.

[Tailgat0r76]

KRod has done his job in 6 out of 8 appearances. That's ok, but it's not great. He's a marginal upgrade, not this huge win a lot of people are making it out to be. If Loe blew 25% of his 8th inning outings over the last couple weeks, BF.net nation would be all over him.

 

Yesterday was probably his worst outing and he gave up the run on the wild pitch. His other "bad" appearance would have been completely harmless if Prince didn't try to field the ball with his knee.

[rluzinski]

Though I will grant you that shortstop is the most important defensive position behind catcher, fielding or 'defense' is incredibly overrated here. This isn't football, where defense is probably more than 50%, or even basketball. Good pitching makes up most of the defense in baseball.

I made that same argument on this board in 2002. I presented as much evidence as you did as well. Since then, I've studied the matter a lot and realized just how wrong I was.

You are correct that defense is not even 50% of the game but it is still very important. Every non-out made by Betancourt represents about 2/3rds of a run on average. That includes the obvious errors and the not-as-obvious 5 hopper that skitters between Betancourt and 2B. Even if Betancourt only makes 1 less out than an average SS every 5 games, that's still about 20 runs and 2 wins over a full season, which is a hell of a lot. That's the difference between an average major leaguer and a perennial minor leaguer. It's the difference between 87 wins and the playoffs and 85 wins and sitting at home.

[brwrsfan]

I agree on K-Rod. He's given up runs twice.

 

Once Prince totally botched a ball right at him that somehow went for a hit, then he gave up 2 runs while 2 were out.

 

Yesterday the Astros had one weak groundball for a hit and scored on a wild pitch.

 

I wouldn't say he pitched poorly either time and I'm stoked to have him as our 8th inning guy.

[rluzinski]

Hell, he said that getting KRod filled their greatest need. It's very frustrating.

 

Since making that trade, the Brewers are 11 and 4. It is quite possible that shoring up the bullpen really was the most immediate need.

I can'tt rule out the possibility but by my estimates, that simply wasn't the case. And what the Brewer's record has been since the acquisition is almost irrelevant. Hell, the Brewers are undefeated since Weeks got hurt!

[RockCoCougars]

Though I will grant you that shortstop is the most important defensive position behind catcher, fielding or 'defense' is incredibly overrated here. This isn't football, where defense is probably more than 50%, or even basketball. Good pitching makes up most of the defense in baseball.

I made that same argument on this board in 2002. I presented as much evidence as you did as well. Since then, I've studied the matter a lot and realized just how wrong I was.

You are correct that defense is not even 50% of the game but it is still very important. Every non-out made by Betancourt represents about 2/3rds of a run on average. That includes the obvious errors and the not-as-obvious 5 hopper that skitters between Betancourt and 2B. Even if Betancourt only makes 1 less out than an average SS every 5 games, that's still about 20 runs and 2 wins over a full season, which is a hell of a lot. That's the difference between an average major leaguer and a perennial minor leaguer. It's the difference between 87 wins and the playoffs and 85 wins and sitting at home.

I hear you, but what is the major indicator of 'defense' that we are using? I quoted the term defense, because I would take it mostly to be runs scored against as opposed to fielding metrics. From this reasoning, I would say that good pitching would not only reduce the runs scored against per game, but it would also serve as a type of equalizer by overcoming poor defense. To me, unearned runs would be a good measure of this (yes, I'm old school). To my surprise, the Brewers are actually 11th/15, while arguably the two best teams in the N.L. are 1/2 (Phi, Atl) so the poor defense arguments seem to have merit. At the same time, I would argue that every team makes errors, so things would tend to even out over the course of a season for the most part unless the team is exceedingly brutal at fielding. Even though the unearned runs are high, it seems that this season the Brewers have benefited more than not by crucial errors and/or misplays.

[TheCrew]

I am jumping for joy the Brewers didn't wait until the All-star break to suddenly "improve" your team for a two month stretch. They improved our team last off season which is way better than waiting until the end of July. You have no idea how players will do over any given 2 month stretch. Over the course of a year, you can get a better estimate as cold and hot streaks happen all the time but usually don't last a whole year. (unless you are named McGehee) ...

 

I am glad the Cardinals waited until August to finally improve their starting rotation. How many starts is Jackson going to get, 11? IMO, it is tough to pull a 2008 Sabathia and have him go 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Sabathia got 17 starts, Jackson will not. Like I said, he is looking at 11 GS for the rest of the year. Even if he goes to 3 days rest in Sept, maybe he gets to 13, 14? I am good and am all for them dumping Rasmus.

I agree with the bolded part, not sure why you would put improve in quotes though - are you mocking that these trades improve teams? Either way, you lost me after that...... you seem to be implying that making deadline deals won't impact a club?

 

Anyhow, Yes, Melvin improved the worst part of this team during the offseason. He has done very little since then and has not improved the next worse things in the 8 months since then - I give Mark A far more credit in the K-Rod deal since that really came down to salary and how deep Mark A's pockets went. Outside of that, Melvin hasn't done much - Hairston was a solid move but it would have been far better if that was the complimentary move to a full time replacement for McGehee.

 

The Cards also don't need Jackson to have a Sabathia like season - the Brewers were melting down and CC saved them that season. He HAD to go on 3 days rest or the Brewers miss the playoffs. As much as I dislike the Cards, when I look at things objectively - I see them as a far more balanced and experienced team than the 2008 Brewers.

[monty57]

One of the biggest benefits of acquiring K-Rod was that it moved Loe from a position of weakness (8th inning guy where he would routinely have to face tough lefties) to a position of strength (enter game with guys on base against RH batter when a ground ball helps a lot). That K-Rod is a good pitcher who can "lock down" the end of the game is great, but having a name which forced Roenicke to use Loe more effectively is very important as well.

 

Now I just hope Gomez can pull a Pujols-esque return from injury, as Hairston will not be effectively used until he is not pegged into the "RH part of the CF platoon" role. We upgraded 2B & 3B with the Hairston & Lopez trades. Unfortunately, they will be playing 2B & PT CF until injuries heal up.

 

We've got the personnel. Bring up Carroll for Counsell and Green for Wilson. Morgan/Carroll CF platoon. Green/McGehee 3B platoon. Lopez/Hairston/Betancourt share 2B/SS duties. Hairston could also pick up some starts in CF or 3B if necessary. Gomez heals, Carroll goes down. Weeks heals, one of Green/McGehee/Lopez/Betancourt goes away. It's easy if you don't insist on wasting roster spots on Counsell & Wilson.

[rluzinski]

Though I will grant you that shortstop is the most important defensive position behind catcher, fielding or 'defense' is incredibly overrated here. This isn't football, where defense is probably more than 50%, or even basketball. Good pitching makes up most of the defense in baseball.

I made that same argument on this board in 2002. I presented as much evidence as you did as well. Since then, I've studied the matter a lot and realized just how wrong I was.

You are correct that defense is not even 50% of the game but it is still very important. Every non-out made by Betancourt represents about 2/3rds of a run on average. That includes the obvious errors and the not-as-obvious 5 hopper that skitters between Betancourt and 2B. Even if Betancourt only makes 1 less out than an average SS every 5 games, that's still about 20 runs and 2 wins over a full season, which is a hell of a lot. That's the difference between an average major leaguer and a perennial minor leaguer. It's the difference between 87 wins and the playoffs and 85 wins and sitting at home.

I hear you, but what is the major indicator of 'defense' that we are using? I quoted the term defense, because I would take it mostly to be runs scored against as opposed to fielding metrics. From this reasoning, I would say that good pitching would not only reduce the runs scored against per game, but it would also serve as a type of equalizer by overcoming poor defense. To me, unearned runs would be a good measure of this (yes, I'm old school). To my surprise, the Brewers are actually 11th/15, while arguably the two best teams in the N.L. are 1/2 (Phi, Atl) so the poor defense arguments seem to have merit. At the same time, I would argue that every team makes errors, so things would tend to even out over the course of a season for the most part unless the team is exceedingly brutal at fielding. Even though the unearned runs are high, it seems that this season the Brewers have benefited more than not by crucial errors and/or misplays.

I usually use the term "defense" to describe the combination of pitching and fielding, so we are in agreement there. And yes, good pitching can somewhat negate bad fielding, especially if it is in the form of a high strikeout rotation (limit number of balls in play).

I really wouldn't use unearned runs, as it actually rewards teams who employ defenders with terrible range. If we are not concerned about uncoupling fielding from pitching, "defensive efficiency" is a good metric to look at it. It is simply the percentage of balls in play that are converted into outs:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tm	DefEff ?
	.694
CIN	.709
PHI	.705
ATL	.704
SFG	.704
ARI	.701
SDP	.698
FLA	.695
LAD	.694
NYM	.694
WSN	.694
LgAvg	.694
COL	.693
PIT	.693
STL	.693
MIL	.689
HOU	.675
CHC	.669

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 8/1/2011.

Everything equal, things do even themselves out over a season but the Brewers are not "equal". Melvin has a lot of batters in the everyday lineup who projected to be below average defenders before the season even started (Hart, Braun, McHehee, Fielder, Betancourt, in rough order of increased defensive ineptitude). I haven't seen anything this year that suggests those projections were wrong. The Brewers offense has been above average but the positional players have not been above average after you consider their fielding. The Brewers have the opportunity to improve their fielding with the additions of Lopez and Hairston but I don't believe they realize how bad their fielding has been.

 

[monty57]

I give Mark A far more credit in the K-Rod deal since that really came down to salary and how deep Mark A's pockets went

 

That's an important point. I banged the drum for Jamey Carroll or Furcal for a long time, as I assumed we'd be able to pick up salary and therefore not have to pay much in terms of prospects. In reality, I have no idea if Melvin had any more money with which to work.

[wisniewski]

I am fine with the deals the Brewers made. As pointed out, they've made a ton in the past 8 months. The Greinke and Marcum deals were huge. I think the JHJ deal was bigger than people realize. An understated move to add versatility and depth. Weeks will be back before we know it.

 

That said, of all the players that moved on deadline day, who exactly should DM have made a play for? Ed Wade made is abundantly clear he had no interest in dealing with the Brewers, so any player off the 'Stros roster is moot. Furcal? I just don't get the love there. Someone on here posted Jose Reyes in this thread. Are you f***** serious??? The Mets made it clear weeks ago they weren't trading Reyes. Just wasn't happening, and that's the fantasy talk that makes me nuts this time of year. The only player I guess I would have liked to see added would've been a Jeff Keppinger type. He is extremely versatile defensively and gives excellent at bats. But, again, a Wade deal.

 

It's funny, I've seen the Phils mentioned in this thread, and the irony is all I hear from Phils fans is how much they hate their team. Their pitching obviously dominates, but they are so streaky at the plate, and you are looking at a team that is extremely beatable in a short series if their pitching stumbles even a little bit.

[logan82]

One of the biggest benefits of acquiring K-Rod was that it moved Loe from a position of weakness (8th inning guy where he would routinely have to face tough lefties) to a position of strength (enter game with guys on base against RH batter when a ground ball helps a lot).

 

I like the K-Rod move but am frustrated we needed to make a move based on our manager misusing players. I think we acquired players who will help us but like many other posters I am not confident that DPR will use them properly.

 

We've got the personnel. Bring up Carroll for Counsell and Green for Wilson. Morgan/Carroll CF platoon. Green/McGehee 3B platoon. Lopez/Hairston/Betancourt share 2B/SS duties. Hairston could also pick up some starts in CF or 3B if necessary. Gomez heals, Carroll goes down. Weeks heals, one of Green/McGehee/Lopez/Betancourt goes away. It's easy if you don't insist on wasting roster spots on Counsell & Wilson.

 

I mostly agree with that except Kotsay needs to go as well.

[LouisEly]

I like the K-Rod move but am frustrated we needed to make a move based on our manager misusing players. I think we acquired players who will help us but like many other posters I am not confident that DPR will use them properly.

 

So who was RR supposed to use in the 8th inning? Saito and Hawkins were hurt and missed a lot of games, and all of his lefties were hurt/medically unavailable and missed most of the season. If Loe shouldn't be facing lefties, then who should he have used in the 8th inning? Estrada? Dillard? McClendon? He wasn't misusing Loe; Loe just isn't that good, and his career stats indicate that 2010 was the exception, not the rule, and RR didn't have any lefties to use against lefties. They needed to get a legit setup man, or at the minimum someone who is good against lefties, and they got that in K-Rod.

[dlk9s]

Somewhere along the line I missed what "DPR" stands for. Someone enlighten me.

[greeg35]

Only one person uses dpr. It has not caught on.