Disappointed in Brewers Deadline Moves

[rluzinski]

I know you´ve said this and made this point before, but I don´t buy it. Just about every major leager I´ve heard speak, says sometimes they go through periods where they see the ball better, and other times they go through periods where they don´t. So clearly, if a player is seeing the ball better, that is a time to leave him in.

 

They say they are seeing the ball well when asked to explain a good run of games. That's all well and good but when people actually look to see if a "hot" batter does better than expected going forward, they find very little evidence of of it. Perhaps the studies so far have failed to tease the evidence out of the data but what you suggest is clear is quite the opposite.

Some of these things just can´t be categorically slotted away in your statistical boxes. You make these players out to be robots, they aren´t. They are human beings who go through ups and downs.

 

No, I'm telling you if they WERE robots you would STILL see all kinds of streaks. And those streaks the robots experience; humans are subjected to them as well. If there was clear evidence that batters do have have REAL streaks, they would be SIGNIFICANTLY more subject to streaks than my spreadsheet. Taken as a group, humans are only slightly more streaky. Look at "streaky" roboJenkins:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot...ins-and-consistency.html

 

That's me assuming that each AB is just a coin flip. Take into account the changing skill level of the opposing pitcher, home and away variance, platoon advantages, etc... these robots are streaky as hell!

 

I have no doubt that batters do experience non-statistical-noise hot and cold streaks (especially cold because of injuries), how do you know when it IS just statistical noise (which is much more likely)? Is a manager supposed to ask a batter?

 

"Hey Betancourt, do you think your recent uptick in offensive production is a result of coin-flip luck or are you seeing the ball better recently and expect your good production to continue?"

 

If managers can't differentiate between statistical noise and the real deal, they have to assume noise because that is much more likely.

"Plus he only has a history of hitting .111 lifetime against Myers. Not the line I'm looking for."

Another thing managers should ignore!

[RockCoCougars]

No, the choice wasn't Escobar or Yuni. The choice was Escobar and (name a free agent starting pitcher who was willing to come to Milwaukee) or Yuni and Grienke. Those with a crystal ball who were willing to risk Capuano's injury history, bravo. But no Yuni means no Grienke.

 

Agreed. My point was that 2011 Yuni has been an improvement over 2010 Escobar, and is a push or slightly below 2011 Escobar (depending on how you value defense). People will compain about everything Yuni, including the fact that he's not a 'smart' baserunner. That may be true, but I remember several boneheaded miscues by Escobar last year, most notably in June when they started falling out of the race.

[logan82]

My point was that 2011 Yuni has been an improvement over 2010 Escobar, and is a push or slightly below 2011 Escobar (depending on how you value defense).

 

He really hasn't to this point. At the start of the year Yuni was expected to be about the same as we got out of Escobar in 2010. Yuni has been a negative so far.(-0.4 this year for Yuni to Escobar being 0.9 last year) You can question the UZR portion of WAR and probably give him a bit back and put him at 0 WAR if you give him his normal UZR. Unfortunately Yuni has been even worse than advertised.

[MNBrew]

A couple more thoughts after getting caught up on this thread...

 

1. Brett Carroll was hardly a difference maker. I wanted him to come up & do well, too. But I'm also willing to accept that he (like Boggs) is likely a fringe major-leaguer at this point. To suggest that Melvin hamstrung Roenicke by DFA'ing Carroll strikes me as being way idealistic and optimistic about Carroll to the point of being, really, just patently absurd.

 

2. All the ragging on Melvin the first half of the thread seems beyond rational. We're ALL big Brewers fans & armchair GMs -- that's probably as much as anything why we're on here. But Melvin has his job and has earned the respect throughout MLB that he has for good reason, and he's forgotten more than we'll ever know about baseball. That doesn't put him above question or criticism. But I find myself generally tending to give him more of the benefit of the doubt.

 

3. Melvin has made lots of solid moves since the end of the '10 season, all of which have addressed major needs:

 

2 top-of-the-rotation SPs (Greinke & Marcum)

2 former closers with long track records of MLB success (Saito & Rodriguez)

1 speedy, good-hitting, defensively solid STARTING CF (Morgan)

2 highly versatile (multiple-position) bats to add depth to the bench & to expand Roenicke's options (Lopez & Hairston)

 

Melvin's also added veteran OF depth of debatable value (Kotsay) and veteran IF depth favoring defense (Wilson). . . . I'm not saying every single move is great (though most are clear pluses), but they've all addressed legit-to-glaringly-MAJOR needs.

 

4. A team like the Brewers (compared to large-market perennial big-spenders, whether gratuitous like the NYY or BoSox or more savvy & strategic like SF or TX -- then again, there's also Philly, who's kind of both but who's gone out & landed the best available players the past 3-4 years in Lee x2, Halladay, Oswalt, & Pence) usually is going to have multiple weaknesses. Coming into spring training, in terms of positions, it seemed those weaknesses were:

 

SS, quite possibly CF, & perhaps the bullpen

 

Now, as the year has played out and is 2/3 through, the glaring weaknesses seem to be:

 

SS, 3B, &, to a somewhat lesser extent, RF

 

- Thanks to Morgan, CF's not been a weakness. With Saito's & Hawkins' returns to health and the addition of K-Rod, the bullpen's hardly a weakness.

- We all know Hart's streaky and this year has been pretty under-productive compared to his norms as a big-league regular. I firmly believe McGehee's last 2 years were no aberration and that his failure to "get right" offensively much at all this year has clearly impacted his defense, too -- not that he's ever been a stud 3B at all, but he's generally been reasonably decent in making the plays (my personal view).

- So 2 anticipated problem areas have generally been pretty decent, and 2 positions we had well-substantiated high expectations for have underproduced significantly.

- The only "glaring" weakness, both anticipated and in reality, has been SS.

 

So my point here is three-fold:

 

I. For all McGehee's issues getting on-track offensively, and for those struggles carrying over more glaringly w/ his defense -- both of which are pretty much indisputable -- his 2-year MLB track record prior to this year remains a logical reason why Melvin didn't go out and turn the farm system upside down to get another starting 3B. And...

 

II. I do believe that if a good SS upgrade were available at a cost Melvin felt was remotely reasonable, that move would've been made as soon as possible. The fact that it hasn't to me is a sure indication that mortgaging that much more of the farm system for a marginal upgrade at SS (meaning getting any non-stud SS in terms of his overall game) obviously was more of a risk than Melvin felt was merited based on the talent available and the cost being asked in return. Do I wish we had Reyes or Rollins or someone of that ilk? Sure. But those types of players just weren't available.

 

III. At some point, the Brewers probably could've landed a Jose Reyes or some other stud player at a position of major need like SS (SP & OF now clearly not being among those needs). But they only had so many "bullets" with which to make strong deals. So had they gotten a stud SS or 3B, it would've meant not making one of the other essential moves. I'm simply guessing that Melvin & Co. figured/hoped the Brewers could eventually more out of 3B & SS than the combination of available 3B or SS replacements AND the significant holes being created subsequently elsewhere on the roster.

[adambr2]

I agree with those saying not disappointed with the deadline moves, just disappointed with the personnel management in general.

 

I'm disappointed that Melvin and Co. are carrying 4 below-replacement level players, and worse, don't seem to see a problem with it, when there are better options available internally. The talent is on this team at the top, but 20% of our team consist of guys that could probably be DFA'ed tomorrow without anyone batting an eye., (Betancourt, McGehee, Wilson, Counsell, Kotsay)

 

Somewhere along the line, Melvin seemed to buy into the idea that veteran = good, when there are in fact instances where a rookie is better, but the brass seem content to always err on the side of the vet.

[Oldcity]

A couple more thoughts after getting caught up on this thread...

 

1. Brett Carroll was hardly a difference maker. I wanted him to come up & do well, too. But I'm also willing to accept that he (like Boggs) is likely a fringe major-leaguer at this point. To suggest that Melvin hamstrung Roenicke by DFA'ing Carroll strikes me as being way idealistic and optimistic about Carroll to the point of being, really, just patently absurd.

The "patently absurd" comment seems to be in reference to my post, so I'll address it. I never said Carroll is a difference maker. What I implied is that he's a better option than Morgan in CF against left-handed starters. Morgan has a career .570 OPS against lefties.

For this reason, Melvin needs to play Hairston in CF against lefties.

To Logan's comment about Morgan's defense still making Morgan the better option, I can't agree with that. Morgan has good but not great CF defense, and the reports on Carroll are that he's solid defensively. I don't think there's too much lost defensively from Morgan to Carroll--neither is at a Gomez level, for example.

I'll second the notion that Hairston won't get more than 10 or so starts at short the rest of the way, and that's simply not enough. I still blame Melvin for that over RR, though. I'm sure he's got a big say in how Hairston's used, and in the JS, he kept talking about him being a versatile utility guy, and never mentioned him specifically for a shortstop replacement.

Again, shortstop has been the biggest hole on this team all season, and it went largely unaddressed.

[gregmag]

A couple more thoughts after getting caught up on this thread...

 

1. Brett Carroll was hardly a difference maker. I wanted him to come up & do well, too. But I'm also willing to accept that he (like Boggs) is likely a fringe major-leaguer at this point. To suggest that Melvin hamstrung Roenicke by DFA'ing Carroll strikes me as being way idealistic and optimistic about Carroll to the point of being, really, just patently absurd.

 

2. All the ragging on Melvin the first half of the thread seems beyond rational. We're ALL big Brewers fans & armchair GMs -- that's probably as much as anything why we're on here. But Melvin has his job and has earned the respect throughout MLB that he has for good reason, and he's forgotten more than we'll ever know about baseball. That doesn't put him above question or criticism. But I find myself generally tending to give him more of the benefit of the doubt.

I agree with a lot of what's in your post beyond these two points, and I think some people have tended to evaluate DM with one-sided negativity. But:

 

(1) You're completely missing the point about why the Carroll move stinks. Hairston, right now, is probably our best option at four positions: cf platoon partner, 2b, ss, and 3b. Obviously he can't play all four. Lopez is decent cover for 2b, as these things go. Carroll was decent cover for the cf platoon, as these things go. At ss and 3b, we have . . . well, we know what we have. Dumping Carroll forces the cf platoon to the top of Hairston's to-do list. This is especially inexcusable when we're carrying not one, not two, but three bad shortstops. Even if you think Yuni should get more rope, there's no strategic value in carrying both Wilson and Counsell over Carroll.

 

(2) Your "beyond rational" accusation is ridiculous. You really think "all" (your word) of those carefully thought-out assessments of Melvin's mistakes are entirely outside the realm of reason? That they're random collections of nonsensical words? Come on. There's a big, really important difference between "not what I think" and "not rational," and when you ignore that difference, your own credibility suffers a lot, at least IMHO.

 

 

[fondybrewfan]

I do think the negativity sorrounding a 1st place team at 11 games over .500 is a little overboard. I tend to agree that there have been personnel errors made this year though. The Brewers have an incredible starting rotation right now and it appears the bullpen is finally being used like we would like it. There are some weak links in the starting lineup but those players have been playing better since the all star break (Sans Counsell). You would think most Brewers fans would be happy where we are. Would we magically be 20 games over .500 right now if we never had Yuni and brought up Taylor Green 2 months ago? I doubt it.

 

People are so pissed off that Yuni, McGehee, and Counsell are still on the team that they aren't enjoying a pretty good season. At least thats the way it comes across on Brewerfan.

[JohnBriggs12]

A couple more thoughts after getting caught up on this thread...

 

1. Brett Carroll was hardly a difference maker. I wanted him to come up & do well, too. But I'm also willing to accept that he (like Boggs) is likely a fringe major-leaguer at this point. To suggest that Melvin hamstrung Roenicke by DFA'ing Carroll strikes me as being way idealistic and optimistic about Carroll to the point of being, really, just patently absurd.

 

2. All the ragging on Melvin the first half of the thread seems beyond rational. We're ALL big Brewers fans & armchair GMs -- that's probably as much as anything why we're on here. But Melvin has his job and has earned the respect throughout MLB that he has for good reason, and he's forgotten more than we'll ever know about baseball. That doesn't put him above question or criticism. But I find myself generally tending to give him more of the benefit of the doubt.

I agree with a lot of what's in your post beyond these two points, and I think some people have tended to evaluate DM with one-sided negativity. But:

 

(1) You're completely missing the point about why the Carroll move stinks. Hairston, right now, is probably our best option at four positions: cf platoon partner, 2b, ss, and 3b. Obviously he can't play all four. Lopez is decent cover for 2b, as these things go. Carroll was decent cover for the cf platoon, as these things go. At ss and 3b, we have . . . well, we know what we have. Dumping Carroll forces the cf platoon to the top of Hairston's to-do list. This is especially inexcusable when we're carrying not one, not two, but three bad shortstops. Even if you think Yuni should get more rope, there's no strategic value in carrying both Wilson and Counsell over Carroll.

 

(2) Your "beyond rational" accusation is ridiculous. You really think "all" (your word) of those carefully thought-out assessments of Melvin's mistakes are entirely outside the realm of reason? That they're random collections of nonsensical words? Come on. There's a big, really important difference between "not what I think" and "not rational," and when you ignore that difference, your own credibility suffers a lot, at least IMHO.

 

I totally agree that neither Counsell nor Wilson serve any purpose whatsoever on this roster and they just tempt Roenicke to occasionally use them. They'd be better off with Carroll and Farris. Farris at least has some value as a PR (something that is missing without Gomez), and Carroll was likely to provide solid D and at least as much offense as Gomez. Plus that would have freed up Hairston to move all around the IF.

[Oldcity]

I do think the negativity sorrounding a 1st place team at 11 games over .500 is a little overboard.

If this was 2001 and the Brewers were awful, the negativity wouldn't be nearly as bad because the team would be awful and the fans would be apathetic. But the team is good and in position to win, which means these small decisions are extremely important. That's why there is frustration when they appear to be poor decisions--because they actually matter.

[jjfanec]

People are so pissed off that Yuni, McGehee, and Counsell are still on the team that they aren't enjoying a pretty good season. At least thats the way it comes across on Brewerfan.

It reminds me of Packer fans who were bashing Ted Thompson for not picking up Marshawn Lynch when the Packers were already in the playoffs and on a run to the Super Bowl. having a opinions and disagreeing with moves is fine but take time to enjoy the ride as well and that is what it seems like this board is lacking to me. I dont like Yuni at all as a player and as much as I like Counsell the guy he brings nothing but at the same time I am really enjoying this season.

[rluzinski]

This team has great starting pitching, decent offense and terrible defense. They are 11 games over but have only outscored their opponents by 5 runs on the year. Frankly, the Brewers are probably lucky to have such a great record in close games. They are probably going to need to play better to make the playoffs as tehy shouldn't expect to continue dominating in 1 run games.

 

When you have a couple of terrible players that have started all year, it's a blessing in disguise. It's very easy to upgrade a position when the current starter is playing like a minor leaguer. Unfortunately, I suspect the Melvin is betting on Mcgehee and Betancourt to play better going forward. Hell, he said that getting KRod filled their greatest need. It's very frustrating.

[patrickgpe]

a couple of points, first of all while hairston and lopez aren't headline grabbing moves, they did get the best reliever acquired in july. secondly none of the 3 teams competing with the brewers made an impact acquisition. Lee and Ludwig are shells of their former selfs, while the cards did get dotel, there is a reason why jackson has been traded so many times and furcal is also a shell of his former self. To say that the brewers aren't going to the playoffs because of what they did this weekend, is premature. I'd be more worried if the cards got bell or something.

 

that being said i'm disappointed that they didn't get a lefty reliever, but understand that there wasn't much there.

[logan82]

To Logan's comment about Morgan's defense still making Morgan the better option, I can't agree with that. Morgan has good but not great CF defense, and the reports on Carroll are that he's solid defensively. I don't think there's too much lost defensively from Morgan to Carroll--neither is at a Gomez level, for example.

 

Morgan is a career 17.5 UZR/150 defender in CF. That would be second best in baseball this year. I know the innings could be an issue but he is still a 20.3 UZR/150 guy in the outfield overall. I would have a hard time assuming any AAA guy more than above average without seeing him quite a bit so I feel pretty safe assuming Morgan would be a better defender because he has played elite, or close to it, defense in CF so far in his career.

[The Truth]

I'm not entirely sure that Melvin was incorrect in saying that K-Rod filled their biggest need. Casey & Yuni had abysmal 1st halves, however the bullpen was a complete mess, and RR's insistence on using Loe in the 8th inning day in and day out cost the Brewers how many games?

 

Now I suppose you could say that the biggest need then was a manager who understood bullpen use, and to a lesser extent a GM who understood OBP & OPS, but outside of firing both Roenicke and himself, Melvin's pick up of K-Rod really transformed our bullpen and made a huge weakness now a strength

[monty57]

I agree with others that I was fine with melvin's moves but fear that RR is going to mess it all up.

This pretty much sums it up for me. I liked the K-Rod move because when Melvin brought in a "superstar" Roenicke had no choice but to move Loe out of the "8th inning guy" role. I'm glad K-Rod's set in the 8th inning role, as I expected we'd have some coin-flip system as to who was closing on any given day.

 

Hairston is an upgrade and should find playing time every day on this team. However, since he's not a big name, Roenicke still starts Kotsay at CF and Counsell at 3B. The reasoning was "Kotsay for his offense" when Kotsay is a low-.600-OPS hitter replacing Morgan's .800+ OPS. Until we get Counsell off the team, he will continue to get playing time. I just hope his pride causes him to retire before he breaks the hitless record. I don't hate Kotsay as a LH bat off the bench, but as long as he's on the roster, he will continue to get starts even when better options are available. Lopez was a fine pick-up, but he's certainly not someone to put blind faith into. However, he seems to be one of Roenicke's guys, as he's unquestionably our everyday 2B.

 

I would've liked to have picked up Jamey Carroll, as he would have probably been inserted as the starting SS from day 1. It has been reported that Melvin looked into trading for Carroll, so I can't be too upset. Other than that, my only real disappointment is that we dropped Carroll instead of Counsell, which means Hairston will be relegated to "RH part of CF platoon" when he should be starting every day at 2B/SS/3B

[fondybrewfan]

Just imagine where this team would be if Marcum and Grienke weren't picked up in the offseason. At least one of our AAA guys would be starting and we would probably have Dave Bush or Doug Davis type starting. Those two pick ups are still two of the best pick ups by any team since the end of last year. Granted it was Melvin's fault that he let the rotation get that bad in the 1st place but I give him a lot of credit for getting it corrected in a big way. I was down on Grienke for stupid reasons in hindsight but his "bad luck" seems to have run out. I get real excited about the possibility of those two being extended.

 

It will be interesting to see what Doug does this offseason with SS, 1st, and 3rd.

[Bombers]

I also agree with those saying not disappointed. I am estatic. We have one of the best rotations in baseball and the K-rod trade just made it a 7 inning game defensively. Combine that with our starters going an a-typical 6 innings and we only have the 7th inning open.

 

Ever since giving up 12, and 7 runs in the Colorado series the Brewers have now gone 14 games and given up: 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 2, 0, 2, 0, 2, 4. If we keep giving up an average of 2.35 runs a game, we are going to win a lot of games. Melvin has made amazing moves this year to build a contender and I am loving it. Go Crew!!!!

[joepepsi]

Where's Joes Dillon and Inglettt when you need them?

 

I don't have a problem with the deadline deals. I do have a problem with the way RR uses his bench, and that it take 4 2B to backup Weeks and Betancourt. (Hairston, Counsell, Wilson, and Lopez are all better 2B than ss.)

 

I'd like to see Hairston start at 3B tonight. But you can bet it will be Groundout McGehee.

[Baldkin]

What I don't understand is why Lopez is automatically a better option than Wilson at 2B.

in his last 500 PA -- his totals for 2010 and 2011 -- Lopez has a .640 OPS

[ninja33]

because josh wilson has a career .605 OPS?

[And That]

ZiPS wOBA projections for the rest of the season, FWIW:

 

Hairston: .326

McGehee: .312

Betancourt: .301

Lopez: .294

Wilson: .289

Counsell: .287

[rluzinski]

I thought the KRod trade was great (assuming the Brewers don't lose any real prospects) but I don't think that was the biggest Brewers need. The Brewers left side of the infield has two below average defenders with OBP's below .275. Both project to perform better offensively going forward but their expected lines still look terrible:

 

ZIPS Rest-of-Season Projections:

Betancourt: .266/.290/.401

McGehee: 260/.314/.401

 

Betancourt in particular is such a poor defender and OBP guy that his little bit of pop is largely irrelevant. He projects to be AAA material, not a starter on a playoff team. KRod is a low 3 ERA reliever and might give the Brewers 60 IP. That's nice but some combination of Saito/Hawkins/Loe would have been fine IMO. But no, I am not considering RR not knowing how to manage. If Melvin was considering that when he said he filled the Brewers greatest need, that is sad.

[joepepsi]

because josh wilson has a career .605 OPS?

There is really no need for Wilson now that Hairston is here. In fact, Jerry would probably sign another 1yr/$1million deal today for 2012.

 

counsell is going nowhere. He's the club mascot.

[TheCrew07]

Yuni's body language doesn't help him...whereas I see McGehee and Fielder actually hustling after bobbled balls or balls not hit right at them, Yuni just appears to be lollygagging a lot of times. This may be one of the reasons why he is ridden so hard by us fans. Just my observation.

Honestly I think you are right about the fans but wrong about Betancourt. Appearing to lolllygag isn't the same as actually lollygagging. The greatest player ever to wear a Milwaukee uniform "appeared" to lollygag. That's Hammerin Hank Aaron. Read his book "I had a Hammer". Aaron was crucified as a lazy player early in his career, for the simple reason his gait was loping and he didn't dive after balls. People contrasted that understated style to the flamboyant Willie Mays at the time. I've never seen Betancourt lollygag. A lot of guys fake effort. That's easy to do. Yuni isn't one of them. Betancourt doesn't dive after balls he has no chance to get to (by the way Hardy didn't either). He runs hard on the bases. Believe me if he were actually lollygagging, it wouldn't be accepted in the clubhouse. Betancourt by all accounts is very popular with his teammates. It was reported he spent a lot of extra time in the cage working on staying back on pitches. It's paying off. Fans need to give it a rest.

Yuni is an incredibly lazy defender which is why he's not very good. He never bends with his knees, he doesn't play low to the ground, which in turn affects everything that he does on defense. His his range is horrible because he has to move vertically to get his body into position to move horizontally costing valuable tenths of a second, since he end ups playing so high his base isn't wide enough which affects his arm and accuracy. He's a waist bender, he's not fundamentally sound in any aspect of what he does, from where I'm sitting that's incredibly lazy, these are the kind of things that wouldn't be acceptable out of a high school SS being done by a professional.

 

If you were going to teach a youngster how to play SS and have him watch a video, Yuni's half of the video would be the "what not to do"... Instead of merely accepting that he actually caught a ground ball, take a closer look at how he goes about it in the future and you'll see how bad he really is.