Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster

[reillymcshane]

I really hope Green wins the job but honestly, I don't know if the organization has him in their plans. I guess you could argue that if that was the case, he would've been traded (or on the PTBNL list) for a useful piece this year. But I think if they truly thought highly of him, he would've been up when McGehee was struggling and for sure when Weeks went down. But I hope I'm wrong and he wins the job next spring.

I don't mean to hijack the topic, so I won't go on after this, but I don't buy the argument that Green is a PTBNL or not in the organization's plans. If fact, I think it's just the opposite.

Haudricourt said in his recent chat that Green was definitely NOT on the PTBNL list for the Mets.

[Raw Biz]

I really hope Green wins the job but honestly, I don't know if the organization has him in their plans. I guess you could argue that if that was the case, he would've been traded (or on the PTBNL list) for a useful piece this year. But I think if they truly thought highly of him, he would've been up when McGehee was struggling and for sure when Weeks went down. But I hope I'm wrong and he wins the job next spring.

I don't mean to hijack the topic, so I won't go on after this, but I don't buy the argument that Green is a PTBNL or not in the organization's plans. If fact, I think it's just the opposite. He looked like a real prospect in '07 and '08, then had a couple tough seasons and now appears again like a good prospect. Looks to me like the organization has little interest in bringing up a rookie in the year they are "going for it" and would rather not rush him. Let him play a full year at AAA and maintain his success. Next year, when Prince is gone, the climate will be more accepting to giving him a shot at 3B.

I know, that's why I was saying that if he truly wasn't in their plans, he probably would've been traded. I guess I'm just frustrated by how the organization handles prospects in general. They seem to take forever to promote guys, even when they dominate certain leagues. I understand they don't want to rush anyone to the bigs like they used to but other organizations seem to be a little more willing to take risks in counting on rookies during a pennant chase.

I know Buster Posey has more talent and is a bigger name than Green but he is an example. I just wish they were a little more aggressive with their prospect approach and would at least give the kid a chance for a few weeks to see what he has.

 

[logan82]

I was just making a comment about defensive metrics. Not really meant specifically toward you but some people on here. In my opinion the defensive metrics available for free are not as reliable and accurate as some people like to use them as. The fact that the correlation of the defensive metrics is about half of OPS is all I need to know to see they are far from perfect. Everyone knows how much can OPS fluctutes from year to year..and defense should be more consistent from year to year. But yet the correlation from year to year is a fair amount worse.

 

Betancourt's UZR/150 doesn't fluctuate much year to year. He is pretty consistently bad. Also as Russ pointed out, it isn't just the metrics that don't like Betancourt on defense. The metrics, scouts and fans all agree he is not a good defender. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that he is a bad defender.

[Ayt]

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endaround]So if you remove basically 1/3 of the sample he was good? Betancourt because of his lack of plate discipline is going to tend be at the whim of BABIP more then most players. And he still would have an OBP below .300 with terrible defense.

I am not saying Betancourt is good, he is not. Just trying to limit the exaggeration.His point to begin with was that McGehee hasn't been hitting better for 28 days. He's been hitting better for 8. It is misleading to say he's hit better over a 28 game stretch when the first 20 games of that stretch wasn't any better than what he had done on the season.

[GamelToe]

I really hope Green wins the job but honestly, I don't know if the organization has him in their plans. I guess you could argue that if that was the case, he would've been traded (or on the PTBNL list) for a useful piece this year. But I think if they truly thought highly of him, he would've been up when McGehee was struggling and for sure when Weeks went down. But I hope I'm wrong and he wins the job next spring.

I don't mean to hijack the topic, so I won't go on after this, but I don't buy the argument that Green is a PTBNL or not in the organization's plans. If fact, I think it's just the opposite.

Haudricourt said in his recent chat that Green was definitely NOT on the PTBNL list for the Mets.

Yeah, but he knows only as much as we know. He's just guessing. Frankly, it seems as though Green is almost certainly not on the list, but Tom H is guessing as much as we are. His word is not gold.

[RockCoCougars]

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endaround]So if you remove basically 1/3 of the sample he was good? Betancourt because of his lack of plate discipline is going to tend be at the whim of BABIP more then most players. And he still would have an OBP below .300 with terrible defense.

I am not saying Betancourt is good, he is not. Just trying to limit the exaggeration.His point to begin with was that McGehee hasn't been hitting better for 28 days. He's been hitting better for 8. It is misleading to say he's hit better over a 28 game stretch when the first 20 games of that stretch wasn't any better than what he had done on the season.

He's been hitting well since the break: .323 BA. He started to get a pulse down in Arizona.

[Ayt]

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I am not saying Betancourt is good, he is not. Just trying to limit the exaggeration.

His point to begin with was that McGehee hasn't been hitting better for 28 days. He's been hitting better for 8. It is misleading to say he's hit better over a 28 game stretch when the first 20 games of that stretch wasn't any better than what he had done on the season.

He's been hitting well since the break: .323 BA. He started to get a pulse down in Arizona.But again, it really hasn't been since the break. It has been for 8 games. In his first 11 games after the break he had a line of .250/.263/250.

McGehee has now hit really well in the last 9 games with the solid game tonight.

 

[Ennder]

McGehee has always been a pretty hot/cold hitter just like most baseball players are. It wont' surprise me if he has a huge hot streak here, then again it won't surprise me if this is just a 9 game fluke either. He most likely is whatever his career OPS is at this point, that is the only sample that is real.

[mkm13]

logan3825]Betancourt's UZR/150 doesn't fluctuate much year to year. He is pretty consistently bad. Also as Russ pointed out, it isn't just the metrics that don't like Betancourt on defense. The metrics, scouts and fans all agree he is not a good defender. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that he is a bad defender.

For the 3rd time in this thread, Betancourt is bad defensively for a SS. Have never said otherwise.

 

That said, I am pretty confident in saying MLB teams, which spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year...are now using better information to determine how good a player is defensively than the free defensive metrics available that most people like to reference.

[1992casey]

Doug Melvin has been known to mention range factor, which sucks. Maybe he's trying not to tip his hand, or maybe he does actually consider it.

[RockCoCougars]

His point to begin with was that McGehee hasn't been hitting better for 28 days. He's been hitting better for 8. It is misleading to say he's hit better over a 28 game stretch when the first 20 games of that stretch wasn't any better than what he had done on the season.

He's been hitting well since the break: .323 BA. He started to get a pulse down in Arizona.

But again, it really hasn't been since the break. It has been for 8 games. In his first 11 games after the break he had a line of .250/.263/250.

McGehee has now hit really well in the last 9 games with the solid game tonight.

 

Right- but in my view, you have to give him the .323 second half average. Saying that you don't would be akin to saying Molitor didn't truly hit ..350 ish in 1987 because he hit like .420 during the hitting streak. I also remember quite a few hard hit atom ball outs during that first road trip.

[logan82]

Betancourt's UZR/150 doesn't fluctuate much year to year. He is pretty consistently bad. Also as Russ pointed out, it isn't just the metrics that don't like Betancourt on defense. The metrics, scouts and fans all agree he is not a good defender. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that he is a bad defender.

For the 3rd time in this thread, Betancourt is bad defensively for a SS. Have never said otherwise.

 

That said, I am pretty confident in saying MLB teams, which spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year...are now using better information to determine how good a player is defensively than the free defensive metrics available that most people like to reference.

We know teams probably have access to better defensive stats. That doesn't mean they use them. What is your point?

[areacodes]

Haudricourt said in his recent chat that Green was definitely NOT on the PTBNL list for the Mets.

Yeah, but he knows only as much as we know. He's just guessing. Frankly, it seems as though Green is almost certainly not on the list, but Tom H is guessing as much as we are. His word is not gold.

That is not true at all. Haudricourt is not guessing as much as we are. He is the beat writer and is much more connected with the organization than the average BF.net poster. Could he, or his sources, be wrong on who is on the list? Possibly, but he must be pretty confident in what he has seen or heard to state that "Taylor Green is not on the K-Rod list" in his most recent chat.

[Ayt]

logan3825 wrote:

We know teams probably have access to better defensive stats. That doesn't mean they use them. What is your point?

I would also like to know.

Yuni is probably the worst regular SS I've ever seen and my baseball memory goes back to about 1990 or so. Using him in an argument against defensive stats is pretty funny. He's basically a tree stump out there with an average at best arm.