Proof of the weakness of the bottom of our roster

[monty57]

The solution offered was that those guys needed to be replaced.

 

To be fair, the solution offered was to replace Yuni before the season or as soon as a reasonable replacement presented itself, and to platoon McGehee about two months ago. This thread was started long after other threads with similar "solutions." Yuni & McGehee have helped offensively for the past couple weeks, but they're still bad on the year. McGehee's 3 HR day yesterday shot his OPS all the way up to the low-.600s.

 

I certainly hope they're able to prove the nay-sayers wrong, as Yuni & McGehee obviously are as entrenched into their positions as Braun & Fielder. They won't learn to play defense, so at least if they can hit they'll provide some positive value to the 2011 Brewers.

[gregmag]

I think everyone here will be thrilled if Yuni and Casey tear it up for the rest of the season, including the people who have been most critical of them.

 

IMHO it's brutally obvious that replacing Yuni with a replacement-level ss before the season started would have added to the win column, and the weight of the evidence says we'd be better off replacing Yuni with a replacement-level ss today, tomorrow, or next week. The "back of his bubble gum card" shows a bad hitter over the course of his career who maybe, just maybe, could help a team win if he hit at his best while playing strong defense. Unfortunately, his defense is terrible. He's a millstone, and any competent GM would replace him given the opportunity; for a manager not to play Hairston at ss as much as possible should be a firing offense.

 

Casey is a more complicated case because he has helped the team in the past. The numbers on the back of his bubble gum card, if they include minor league numbers (I know, minor league baseball is an utterly different game whose stats are completely random, but indulge me) tell a very conflicting story. Nothing is certain in baseball, but I think if Taylor Green had been the Brewers' 3b for the past two months, (1) our 3b wouldn't have hit three HRs yesterday, and (2) we'd probably have been up a win before yesterday. That said, right now . . . heck, what do I know? I think Taylor Green is probably a better player than Casey McGehee, but McGehee has made his case forcefully. The thing that annoys me is that he could put up a .400 OPS the rest of the year, and management would keep letting him dine out on yesterday's line.

 

Then there's Kotsay and Counsell, who have proved themselves utterly useless by any meaningful measure of performance other than old = good. Funny that JohnBriggs didn't mention them.

[endaround]

Yes Yuni and McGehee have come so far that that Yuni has a wRC of 74 and McGehee of 73. A little bit more and they'll catch Gallardo's and Greinke's 76.

[Raw Biz]

Even if McGehee and Yuni get back on track for the next two months, they were so awful in the first half of the season that they would still end up costing us wins overall. Obviously McGehee wasn't going to be replaced immediately but Green should've been given a shot by the all-star break. But I understand why they wanted to give each a chance to break out of it.

What I don't understand is how Counsell and Kotsay continue to get ABs. Sure they might not play as much as the starters but when they are being used as our #1/2 PHs, they are hurting the team. I think we have more than capable replacement PHs in AAA. Even if Green/Gamel went 1-45, that would be better than Counsell. I really hope at least one of them is called up by 8/31 so they can be on the playoff roster. I want no part of having to rely on Counsell/Kotsay during that time. As much success as Counsell as had in the playoffs in the past, he is completely lost now and I don't think his past should dictate his spot on the roster.

[Thurston Fluff]

Obviously McGehee wasn't going to be replaced immediately but Green should've been given a shot by the all-star break.

 

How can you say he should have been replaced by then when he has done what he has since then? I would argue the exact opposite given the hindsight we have today. I don't think anyone can honestly say Green would have put up the 861 OPS McGehee has since the break.

 

Yuni & McGehee have helped offensively for the past couple weeks, but they're still bad on the year. McGehee's 3 HR day yesterday shot his OPS all the way up to the low-.600s.

 

Does it really matter if McGehee's hot streak now won't make up for the early struggles at this point? Once we saw he was struggling the question shifted to what will get us the most production for the remainder of the season. That he won't have good overall numbers even with a hot finish is something to be worried about in the off season not over the remainder of the playoff push.

 

When the season is over then I think you will have a fair argument that a big finish might not negate the horrible start. Now all I care about is who will be most likely to give us the most production at third over the next three months. That today to me seems to be Casey.

[monty57]

I don't think anyone can honestly say Green would have put up the 861 OPS McGehee has since the break.

 

I don't think anyone can honestly say what anyone will do over a short period of time. Green could've had a 1.000+ OPS over a few weeks or a .600 OPS over the same period. Funny what one 3 HR night does to an OPS over a limited number of PAs.

 

That he won't have good overall numbers even with a hot finish is something to be worried about in the off season not over the remainder of the playoff push.

 

You're extrapolating that his .861 OPS over a few weeks means he'll be hot the rest of the year and into the playoffs. I hope he does stay hot. I'd still like to see Green on the roster. My wish a couple of months ago was that Green would come up to "soft platoon" with Casey. I was never in the camp that wanted Casey sent packing... I always wanted Green to replace Counsell or Wilson.

 

Now all I care about is who will be most likely to give us the most production at third over the next three months. That today to me seems to be Casey.

 

While McGehee has hit better, Green has continued to stay hot. I wouldn't say it's clear cut that McGehee would outperform Green. There seems to be no chance that Green will be called up, so all I can do is hope that you're right and that McGehee "found his swing" and will continue to produce better than his really, really pathetic first half.

[TooLiveBrew]

It bugs me that Kotsay, Wilson, Betancourt, and even Counsell have been kept on the 25-man from day one, when the Brewers have had alternatives like Gamel, Green, Schafer, Carroll, Boggs, & Gindl to choose from. It's bugged me that McGehee has had an unending leash, too, but I hope he's regained his power stroke & can be a .750-.850 OPS bat the rest of the way.

[igor67]

I think it's quite dangerous to uncritically use Casey's last month figure. The thing that is highlighted by removing the 3 HR game, is that it really shows he hasn't been hot or warming up for the last month. He has been slightly less bad, and then had a huge game. And if you are trying to determine if he's going to be useful and is coming out of it those are two radically different things. Betancourt has been legitimately hot the last month. But the fact that power is his only above average weapon for his position, and his hot month only includes 3 HRs doesn't exactly excite me.

[endaround]

McGehee has had a really good week. Before say July 27th he was the same player he had been all season. He's a guy who not only had just 1 HR in July, he only had a total of 5 extra base hits. His July was .253/.306/.360.

 

As for Betancourt his hot month is what he has to produce over a season to overcome his terrible defense especially since its still such a low OBP.

[rluzinski]

I think people need to look at this a little differently. It seems there is a temptation for people to say, "Bahh, it was a fluke game, if you take that one game out, he still has been bad!" Whether Mcgehee hit 3 HRs in 1 day or 1 week really has no bearing with regard to future expectations. All that matters is that he has recently hit 3 HRs.

 

"As for Betancourt his hot month is what he has to produce over a season to overcome his terrible defense especially since its still such a low OBP."

 

Precisely. Betancourt projected to be right around replacement level in preseason projections He projected to hit OK for a SS (bad OBP but good SLG) but but bad defense. Even with his upswing in offensive production, he's still below his projected offensive numbers:

 

ZiPS Projection: .272/.299/.409

Actual: .257/.283/.382

 

That's why it's hard for many of us to get too excited.

[mkm13]

As for Betancourt his hot month is what he has to produce over a season to overcome his terrible defense especially since its still such a low OBP.

Since you removed a week for Casey to try to prove a point..I will remove a month for Betancourt. Outside of the month of May, he has been pretty solid offensively for a SS:

 

.282 BA, .305 OBP, .407 SLG, .712 OPS

 

His defense is not good for a SS, but some people also place too much value on defensive metrics over a smaller sample. I know Betancourt has shown to be specifically bad defensively over a long period of time at SS, but I still do not believe the defensive metrics are as accurate as some people want them to be.

 

 

 

 

[endaround]

The point for McGehee is to show that he hasn't picked up over the last month as many have said, its been a really good week. So 28 day slices really aren't showing a guy hitting well over a month. Betancourt was bad up until the All Star break and in teh three weeks sicne then has been a monster offensively.

[mkm13]

Betancourt was bad up until the All Star break and in teh three weeks sicne then has been a monster offensively.

If you remove his terrible May, Betancourt was not bad offensively for a SS before the all star break. Not good...but not bad either. You must be forgetting how bad the average SS hits.

 

 

[endaround]

So if you remove basically 1/3 of the sample he was good? Betancourt because of his lack of plate discipline is going to tend be at the whim of BABIP more then most players. And he still would have an OBP below .300 with terrible defense.

[mkm13]

So if you remove basically 1/3 of the sample he was good? Betancourt because of his lack of plate discipline is going to tend be at the whim of BABIP more then most players. And he still would have an OBP below .300 with terrible defense.

I am not saying Betancourt is good, he is not. Just trying to limit the exaggeration.

[joepepsi]

Next season you're going to see Green at 3rd and Gamel at 1rst most days, with McGehee backing them up and as the first PH off the bench. Counsell will be gone and quite possibly YuniB, Kotsay. Wilson should be too, but he will probably be back. For this season, nothing will change.

[yoshii8]

Next season you're going to see Green at 3rd and Gamel at 1rst most days, with McGehee backing them up and as the first PH off the bench. Counsell will be gone and quite possibly YuniB, Kotsay. Wilson should be too, but he will probably be back. For this season, nothing will change.

That would be nice for next season, but I think they may value McGehee more than you think.

 

[rluzinski]

"His defense is not good for a SS, but some people also place too much value on defensive metrics over a smaller sample. I know Betancourt has shown to be specifically bad defensively over a long period of time at SS, but I still do not believe the defensive metrics are as accurate as some people want them to be."

 

We've gone over this over and over again. All defensive metrics says he's bad; scouts say he's bad; the fan's scouting report says he's bad. It's fair to assume that Betancourt has played bad defense this year!

[mkm13]

"His defense is not good for a SS, but some people also place too much value on defensive metrics over a smaller sample. I know Betancourt has shown to be specifically bad defensively over a long period of time at SS, but I still do not believe the defensive metrics are as accurate as some people want them to be."

 

We've gone over this over and over again. All defensive metrics says he's bad; scouts say he's bad; the fan's scouting report says he's bad. It's fair to assume that Betancourt has played bad defense this year!

Did you even read what I wrote? The part you specifically quoted from me starts out with "His defense is not good for a SS". I was just pointing out that some people place too much value over defensive metrics over a smaller sample and place too much value over them overall. But yes, Betancourt is a bad defensive short stop, I agree.

 

 

[joepepsi]

Next season you're going to see Green at 3rd and Gamel at 1rst most days, with McGehee backing them up and as the first PH off the bench. Counsell will be gone and quite possibly YuniB, Kotsay. Wilson should be too, but he will probably be back. For this season, nothing will change.

That would be nice for next season, but I think they may value McGehee more than you think.

Well, you are probably correct. 3B will no doubt start as a platoon that Green will have win to become everyday starter. But I think eventually he will win the job.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm glad this guy wrote this. This seems to have lit a fire under McGehee and Yuni- most likely they never even saw it, but whatever works.

[Raw Biz]

Next season you're going to see Green at 3rd and Gamel at 1rst most days, with McGehee backing them up and as the first PH off the bench. Counsell will be gone and quite possibly YuniB, Kotsay. Wilson should be too, but he will probably be back. For this season, nothing will change.

That would be nice for next season, but I think they may value McGehee more than you think.

Well, you are probably correct. 3B will no doubt start as a platoon that Green will have win to become everyday starter. But I think eventually he will win the job.

I really hope Green wins the job but honestly, I don't know if the organization has him in their plans. I guess you could argue that if that was the case, he would've been traded (or on the PTBNL list) for a useful piece this year. But I think if they truly thought highly of him, he would've been up when McGehee was struggling and for sure when Weeks went down. But I hope I'm wrong and he wins the job next spring.

[rluzinski]

"His defense is not good for a SS, but some people also place too much value on defensive metrics over a smaller sample. I know Betancourt has shown to be specifically bad defensively over a long period of time at SS, but I still do not believe the defensive metrics are as accurate as some people want them to be."

 

We've gone over this over and over again. All defensive metrics says he's bad; scouts say he's bad; the fan's scouting report says he's bad. It's fair to assume that Betancourt has played bad defense this year!

Did you even read what I wrote? The part you specifically quoted from me starts out with "His defense is not good for a SS". I was just pointing out that some people place too much value over defensive metrics over a smaller sample and place too much value over them overall. But yes, Betancourt is a bad defensive short stop, I agree.

 

You wrote "His defense is not good for a SS, but..." I took that as a suggestion that perhaps Betancourt hasn't been as bad as some have said. Apparently am I am wrong so how does the first comment relate to the the subsequent ones?

[mkm13]

"His defense is not good for a SS, but some people also place too much value on defensive metrics over a smaller sample. I know Betancourt has shown to be specifically bad defensively over a long period of time at SS, but I still do not believe the defensive metrics are as accurate as some people want them to be."

 

We've gone over this over and over again. All defensive metrics says he's bad; scouts say he's bad; the fan's scouting report says he's bad. It's fair to assume that Betancourt has played bad defense this year!

Did you even read what I wrote? The part you specifically quoted from me starts out with "His defense is not good for a SS". I was just pointing out that some people place too much value over defensive metrics over a smaller sample and place too much value over them overall. But yes, Betancourt is a bad defensive short stop, I agree.

 

You wrote "His defense is not good for a SS, but..." I took that as a suggestion that perhaps Betancourt hasn't been as bad as some have said. Apparently am I am wrong so how does the first comment relate to the the subsequent ones?

 

I was just making a comment about defensive metrics. Not really meant specifically toward you but some people on here. In my opinion the defensive metrics available for free are not as reliable and accurate as some people like to use them as. The fact that the correlation of the defensive metrics is about half of OPS is all I need to know to see they are far from perfect. Everyone knows how much can OPS fluctutes from year to year..and defense should be more consistent from year to year. But yet the correlation from year to year is a fair amount worse.

 

I just find it hard to believe there is not better information out there that MLB teams use, such as fieldFX..that would be more accurate.

 

[joepepsi]

I really hope Green wins the job but honestly, I don't know if the organization has him in their plans. I guess you could argue that if that was the case, he would've been traded (or on the PTBNL list) for a useful piece this year. But I think if they truly thought highly of him, he would've been up when McGehee was struggling and for sure when Weeks went down. But I hope I'm wrong and he wins the job next spring.

I don't mean to hijack the topic, so I won't go on after this, but I don't buy the argument that Green is a PTBNL or not in the organization's plans. If fact, I think it's just the opposite. He looked like a real prospect in '07 and '08, then had a couple tough seasons and now appears again like a good prospect. Looks to me like the organization has little interest in bringing up a rookie in the year they are "going for it" and would rather not rush him. Let him play a full year at AAA and maintain his success. Next year, when Prince is gone, the climate will be more accepting to giving him a shot at 3B.