Did Corey Hart get old fast?

[TooLiveBrew]

Is that flexibility worth $9-10m a year?

 

That's a good question, honestly. I'm not sure either way. I wouldn't have wanted to see Caleb Gindl called up to platoon, that's for sure. So it'd have to have been Carroll & Boggs I guess (for me), if you're talking AAA guys. And I'm not sure that would've equaled an .800 OPS to be honest. But probably mid-.700s with much better defense, so I can't really disagree with the general point.

 

However, I still don't know if that means Hart isn't worth his $9M this season or $10M next. I think it's a bit too broad-sweeping to just assume a platoon can produce as well as a regular like Hart. You could really question almost any contract in that manner, which is actually an interesting thought to bat around in my head.

[logan82]

I think it's a bit too broad-sweeping to just assume a platoon can produce as well as a regular like Hart

 

I would agree if Hart was an average or better defender. Almost any player would benefit from a platoon except, possibly, elite hitters like Braun and Fielder(.791OPS career vs LHP). You obviously cannot do that for every or most positions. Corner outfield seems like a position where there is a much much larger pool of players to draw from,(another reason Kotsay is so disappointing) as opposed to middle infield or center field. I think it is reasonable to think the a Gindl/Boggs platoon could out produce Hart offensively. If Gindl is competent on defense I think they would improve the defense as well.

[Funketown]

Is that flexibility worth $9-10m a year?

 

That's a good question, honestly. I'm not sure either way. I wouldn't have wanted to see Caleb Gindl called up to platoon, that's for sure. So it'd have to have been Carroll & Boggs I guess (for me), if you're talking AAA guys. And I'm not sure that would've equaled an .800 OPS to be honest. But probably mid-.700s with much better defense, so I can't really disagree with the general point.

I know zips doesn't account for the platoon advantage, but zips projects the following numbers for the rest of the season:

Carroll: .211/.282/.408/.690

Boggs: .218/.322/.376/.698

 

I think a .750 might be a bit optimistic. I don't think the platoon would be as productive as Hart, but I could go either way on the $9MM.

[logan82]

Is that flexibility worth $9-10m a year?

 

That's a good question, honestly. I'm not sure either way. I wouldn't have wanted to see Caleb Gindl called up to platoon, that's for sure. So it'd have to have been Carroll & Boggs I guess (for me), if you're talking AAA guys. And I'm not sure that would've equaled an .800 OPS to be honest. But probably mid-.700s with much better defense, so I can't really disagree with the general point.

I know zips doesn't account for the platoon advantage, but zips projects the following numbers for the rest of the season:

Carroll: .211/.282/.408/.690

Boggs: .218/.322/.376/.698

 

I think a .750 might be a bit optimistic. I don't think the platoon would be as productive as Hart, but I could go either way on the $9MM.

Those are not platoon projections. Players hit better with a platoon advantage.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it is reasonable to think the a Gindl/Boggs platoon could out produce Hart offensively. If Gindl is competent on defense I think they would improve the defense as well.

 

I'm not sure if it is reasonable to assume that, and like I said I (personally) don't want to see any of Gindl's service time wasted in a platoon, since he's still only in his age-22 season & hitting well at AAA. I think Gindl v. RHP could be better than Hart v. RHP, but I'm not sure Boggs would outdo Corey against LHP. I do know you're including defense into all of this as well, though.

[logan82]

I think it is reasonable to think the a Gindl/Boggs platoon could out produce Hart offensively. If Gindl is competent on defense I think they would improve the defense as well.

 

I'm not sure if it is reasonable to assume that, and like I said I (personally) don't want to see any of Gindl's service time wasted in a platoon, since he's still only in his age-22 season & hitting well at AAA. I think Gindl v. RHP could be better than Hart v. RHP, but I'm not sure Boggs would outdo Corey against LHP. I do know you're including defense into all of this as well, though.

The question would be, will Gindl hit RHP better by a larger margin than Hart will hit LHP better than Boggs? How much will the improved defense help the team vs a possible decline in offensive production? How much would $9-10m improve another area of the team? I see a lot of opportunity to make the team overall better by platooning RF and using the money to improve another area. Where exactly, I don't know. An extra $8m is a nontrivial amount of money to improve the team. Mind you, this is coming from a guy who likes Hart.

[Funketown]

Is that flexibility worth $9-10m a year?

 

That's a good question, honestly. I'm not sure either way. I wouldn't have wanted to see Caleb Gindl called up to platoon, that's for sure. So it'd have to have been Carroll & Boggs I guess (for me), if you're talking AAA guys. And I'm not sure that would've equaled an .800 OPS to be honest. But probably mid-.700s with much better defense, so I can't really disagree with the general point.

I know zips doesn't account for the platoon advantage, but zips projects the following numbers for the rest of the season:

Carroll: .211/.282/.408/.690

Boggs: .218/.322/.376/.698

 

I think a .750 might be a bit optimistic. I don't think the platoon would be as productive as Hart, but I could go either way on the $9MM.

Those are not platoon projections. Players hit better with a platoon advantage.

Which I said in my post...and why I said .750 might only be "a bit optimistic" for two guys who have struggled offensively in the majors and have hit AAA pitching well but not exceptionally well.

[Dollarbill13]

Gindl has a 25 point OPS advantage over Hart on the power of a .338 BABIP in AAA. While he could out-perform Corey's career .786 OPS against righties, I think it's far from a sure thing. That being said, I think I like the idea of trading Hart (assuming there is a good return to be found) this offseason.

[endaround]

I think you are severely overestimating what you can get with $8-$10m.

EDIT: Gindl's MLE for his splits vs RHers"

.247/.313/.424

Hart: .260/.322/.452

[TooLiveBrew]

Gindl has a 25 point OPS advantage over Hart on the power of a .338 BABIP in AAA.

 

As you can see from the rest of his MiLB career, however, he has basically carried high BABIP rates at every level of the minors. .338 is not really out of line with his career norms. It can be due to hitting a lot of line drives as easily as it can be due to luck.

[monty57]

Almost any player would benefit from a platoon except, possibly, elite hitters like Braun and Fielder(.791OPS career vs LHP).

 

I don't think it's quite as easy as it may at first look. Many players don't hit as well with limited PAs, so you can't just take someone's LH/RH splits and assume they'd be as productive if they only get limited PAs, especially for the RH part of the platoon.

 

I think we could have brought up a couple AAA guys to platoon at a fraction of the cost of Hart and used the money somewhere else to improve the roster.

 

I think that would've been way too much risk to take in a "go for it" year. Boggs was a complete journeyman we picked up for nothing, so basically we would've been replacing one of the decent players on our roster with said journeyman and a mid-tier 21-year-old prospect.

 

I agree that we should at least be open to trading Hart this offseason, but if we had traded him last offseason (or not extended him), we surely would have looked for another LF in the FA market

[RockCoCougars]

Though it seems like Hart has been mostly invisible this season, if you look at his numbers, he's earning his money. I'm just hoping that he can go on one of his hot streaks down the stretch.

[logan82]

Gamel in RF could have probably mostly Hatched Hart's production. I can't believe I forgot to bring him up. He is athletic and has a good arm so he could probably have matched Hart's defense.

[joepepsi]

Though it seems like Hart has been mostly invisible this season, if you look at his numbers, he's earning his money. I'm just hoping that he can go on one of his hot streaks down the stretch.

Well, he has a 4 game hitting streak going and heading home, where he's riding a .929 OPS this year. We can hope the hot streak has already begun!

[Dollarbill13]

Gindl has a 25 point OPS advantage over Hart on the power of a .338 BABIP in AAA.

 

As you can see from the rest of his MiLB career, however, he has basically carried high BABIP rates at every level of the minors. .338 is not really out of line with his career norms. It can be due to hitting a lot of line drives as easily as it can be due to luck.

High MiLB BABIPs don't tend to translate to the same level MLB BABIPs due to the lower quality defense in the minors as well as the lower infield quality in the minors.

[TooLiveBrew]

The only thing I was addressing is how the BABIP had affected or contributed to his AAA production, nothing more.

[monty57]

High MiLB BABIPs don't tend to translate to the same level MLB BABIPs due to the lower quality defense in the minors as well as the lower infield quality in the minors.

 

You're referring to everywhere outside of Milwuakee, right?

[rluzinski]

Carroll: .211/.282/.408/.690

Boggs: .218/.322/.376/.698

 

From 2010:

 

RHB:

Overall: .250/.313/.388/.701

vs. RHB: .245/.304/.378/.682

vs. LHB: .262/.333/.408/.741

 

LHB:

Overall: .256/.327/.396/.723

vs. RHB: .261/.332/.408/.739

vs. LHB: .232/.299/.343/.642

 

http://www.baseball-refer...b&lg=MLB&year=2011#plato

 

There are some issues with this data (includes pitchers and switch hitters, pool of players allowed to bat without platoon advantage is not the same as those that bat with the platoon advantage, etc...). Still, it gives us an idea what we are to expect.

 

Just eyeballing that, we might expect this if Carrol and Boggs always had the platoon advantage:

 

Carroll vs. LHB: .220/.300/.430/.730

Boggs vs. RHB: .225/.330/.390/.720

 

Assuming Boggs gets 2/3rds of the plate appearances:

 

Total: .225/.320/.405/.725

 

Huge uncertainty in all those calculations but that would certainly suck coming from a corner outfielder.

 

I too think people might overestimate what $9 mil buys you on the open market these days.

[Ayt]

Gamel as the main platoon guy would have been interesting. It bothers me we never had him learn some corner OF. He could have had a role on the team this year even with Hart generally being the everyday RF.

[monty57]

Total: .225/.320/.405/.725

 

Yeah, that would've been worse than Hart during his flail-at-everything 2009 season. I'm glad we have Hart this season, and we'll probably have him next year unless Melvin & Co think Gindl is ready for everyday use next year (doubtful since we'll have another rookie starter in Gamel at 1B). With the OF talent we have coming up through the minors, and Braun signed long-term, I doubt Hart will play out his entire contract in Milwaukee. I'd guess Hart will be traded after next year, or mid-season next year if the team's out of it. However, looking at the Green/McGehee fiasco, Melvin may just let all the prospects sit in the minors and ride Hart out.

[endaround]

A lot of what happens to Hart depends on what happens with Marcum and Greinke. If both walk, really no sense in keeping Hart for his final year.