Schedule comparison Stl VS. Mil

[KCBrewerfan34]

Not sure if there's any advantages here but I thought I would break this down. I didn't do the Pirates in the interest of time and their history http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. Feel free to move this somewhere else, I couldn't find an existing topic. This list is unofficial.

Cardinals 12 home 8 away (non-division).

Home Colo (3), LA (3), Atl (3) Mets (3)

Away Fla (4), Phil (4)

Mil 13 home 5 away (non-division)

Home LA (4), Phil (4), Colo (2), Fla (3)

Away SF (2), Mets (3)

Brewers divisional games

Chi 6 at home 3 on the road

Hou 3 at home 6 on the road

Cin 3 away

Stl 6 home, 6 away

Pit 6 home 4 away

Stl Divisional games

Chi 6 home, 3 away

Hou 4 home, 3 away

Cin 3 home

Mil 6 home, 6 away

Pit 3 home, 8 away

Definite advantage for us in non-division games and we only play the Reds 3 more times (away). Key here will be 12 games head to head with the Cardinals, also 10 more with Pirates.

Reds appear to be a "swing" team they don't have that many divisional games left, they only play us and St. Louis 3 times each.

GO BREW

[pebadger]

I have the Pirates and Reds schedules examined as well in a post back near the AS break. The Pirates are just starting a very key stretch as the crew is ending it. They have their big ATL/PHI roadie coming up after the home series with teh Cards this weekend. The Brewers have weathered the storm and now have a more home-friendly schedule. If the Pirates do the same on their trip August should really be something for all teams involved.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If you can find that post maybe post it on here and I will change the title of the thread, thanks,

[pebadger]

http://brewersfandemonium...need-90-wins----division

 

All numbers in that post were "after the AS break" numbers. With the Brewers almost done with a long road trip, their numbers start to look better. Cinci has now even fewer direct matchups with divisional contenders as they have already played 3 vs the Cards since the break. Pittsburgh has lots of tough games on the horizon. If they are still in good shape on August 15 they will likely be in the race all season.

[pebadger]

Remaining Central Division schedules moving into August (including the July 31 night matchup between the Cards and Cubs):

 

MIL (-): 53 games remain. 37 divisional games (28 (13 rd) vs contenders) 28/25 Home/Road

STL(-2): 55 games remain. 35 divisional games (25 (12 rd) vs contenders) 32/23 Home Road

PIT (-4.5): 56 games remain. 38 divisional games (25 (10 rd) vs contenders) 29/27 Home/Road

CIN (-6.5): 54 games remain. 28 divisional games (12 (9 rd) vs contenders) 24/30 Home/Road

 

Games vs PHI/ATL/SF/AZ: Mil (4 total, 0 Road) Pit (7, 7R) StL (7, 4R) Cin (4, 0R)

 

 

The Brewers survived the West Coast road trip in very good shape and now have a positive home/road split. Despite playing better on the road after the break I think all Brewer fans are still pretty happy about that fact. Only 9 games left versus the 'Stros and Cubs (henceforth "the dregs"). Heavy lifting outside the division all but over, though the four-game home set with the Phils could still be a big deal. Hope when I'm there on Sunday, 9/11, that I don't see the lineup we saw today.

 

The Cards have a big home split advantage, to the extent it matters. After tonight they also have only 9 games left with the dregs.

 

Pittsburg has 13 games left with the dregs, but still lots of heavy road lifting to do outside the division. They do have a 2-1 advantage in home/road games against their division rivals for the division.

 

Cinci is just barely hanging on to the fringe of the division race. If not for handling the Giants in the just completed series they'd be on life support. Their best hope at this point is hammering on the dregs and making hay against other marginal teams. Of their remaining 54 games the Reds only play 16 against teams that are still in a playoff race. They'll hve to win a lot of road games from here out if they are to get back into the race, but given the opponents it might yet be doable.

[Eye Black]

One advantage I would give the Cardinals over the next month (during August) is that their longest streak between days off is 10 games. The Brewers on the other hand will play 17 games in 16 days (August 9-24). The Brewers actually have more days off for the remainder of the season (7 days off for the Brewers vs. only 5 for the Cardinals), it just doesn't seem like they are very well spread out at times.

[Warning Track Power]

Interesting scheduling note for the rest of the season...we only have one away series outside the division the rest of the season (Mets in August).

[Baldkin]

One advantage I would give the Cardinals over the next month (during August) is that their longest streak between days off is 10 games. The Brewers on the other hand will play 17 games in 16 days (August 9-24). The Brewers actually have more days off for the remainder of the season (7 days off for the Brewers vs. only 5 for the Cardinals), it just doesn't seem like they are very well spread out at times.

In fact, the 'Crews days off are horribly split up. I just don't get it. 2 days off surrounding a 3 game series, and 2 days off surrounding the 2-gamer with the Rockies.

 

RRR will have the opportunity to skip Narveson down the stretch. I wonder if he'll use it, especially the way Greinke has been throwing the ball.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers' remaining road schedule is very soft. Every road trip but one includes one series against either Astros or Cubs. The lone exception isn't that daunting either with the Beltran-less Mets and what I expect to be a slumping Pirate outfit.

 

Why skip Narveson? He's 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 5 starts. In his career, he's 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA in August and September. Brewers are 9-2 in Narveson's last 11 starts.

[rluzinski]

Why skip Narveson? He's 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 5 starts.

Man, you love your small samples. They continuously lead you astray but you never seem to notice. Here are two off the top of my head:

http://brewersfandemonium...ne-talk-me-off-the-ledge

http://brewersfandemonium...allardo-tipping-pitches-

You have to admit that both look silly in retrospect, right?

ZiPS ROS ERA Projections:

Greinke: 3.18

Marcum: 3.53

Gallardo: 3.57

Wolf: 4.15

Narveson: 4.50

Nerveson is an excellent #5 but he is clearly a step down from the first four starting pitchers. It might make sense to start skipping him soon.

 

[jjfanec]

Skipping Narveson would also give us a lefty in the bullpen. I havent looked up his splits against lefties but if they are good that would be nice to have

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Skipping Narveson would also give us a lefty in the bullpen. I havent looked up his splits against lefties but if they are good that would be nice to have

 

This could make some sense especially against the Phils & Reds. He could wind up in that role if they make the playoffs as well. The schedule is quirky...they could skip a few Narveson starts with the extra days off, but still may need Estrada/Wholestaff to start the double header on the 2nd...unless 3 starters go on short rest.

[brwrsfan]

What are the chances we call up Peralta to start that double header game?

[Outlander]

Narveson is an excellent #5 but he is clearly a step down from the first four starting pitchers. It might make sense to start skipping him soon.

Narveson's career numbers post all star break are 3.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .225 BAA so I wouldn't skip any of his starts either.

[rluzinski]

Narveson is an excellent #5 but he is clearly a step down from the first four starting pitchers. It might make sense to start skipping him soon.

Narveson's career numbers post all star break are 3.45 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .225 BAA so I wouldn't skip any of his starts either.

Yeh, but he has a 4.94 ERA in night games, so obviously he could be skipped then (except at Busch stadium, where he has a 3.0 ERA). Wait, 1.45 ERA when Nieves catches him?

The guy has 151 IP in the second half in his career. You don't make managerial decisions based on statistical noise.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Why skip Narveson? He's 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 5 starts.

Man, you love your small samples. They continuously lead you astray but you never seem to notice. Here are two off the top of my head:

http://brewersfandemonium...ne-talk-me-off-the-ledge

http://brewersfandemonium...allardo-tipping-pitches-

You have to admit that both look silly in retrospect, right?

ZiPS ROS ERA Projections:

Greinke: 3.18

Marcum: 3.53

Gallardo: 3.57

Wolf: 4.15

Narveson: 4.50

Nerveson is an excellent #5 but he is clearly a step down from the first four starting pitchers. It might make sense to start skipping him soon.

 

And you are the master of the overstatement:

 

Compare these two pitchers lines over the last 2 seasons and tell me who is a step down from who?

 

Pitcher A: 354 1/3 innings, 349 hits (8.8 per 9 innings), 44 Home Runs allowed (1.1 per 9 innings), 238 K (6.0 per 9 innings), 135 BB (3.4 per 9 innings), 1.37 WHIP, team record in starts: 28-28

 

Pitcher B: 294 2/3 innings, 302 hits (9.2 per 9 innings) 32 Home Runs allowed (1.0 per 9 innings), 242 K (7.4 per 9 innings), 106 BB (3.2 per 9 innings), 1.38 WHIP, team record in starts: 26-24

 

Pitcher A: Randy Wolf

 

Pitcher B: Chris Narveson

 

"Clearly a step down"?

 

I don't think so.

 

Small sample?

 

Again, I don't think so.

[rluzinski]

Sure, Narveson is a lot closer to Wolf (love how you didn't post ERA) than the other three but the point still stands, Narveson is nothing special. I'd rather give the other guys an extra start (especially the top three, obviously) and use Narveson out of the bullpen.