2011 Offseason Rewind: James Shields versus Zack Greinke

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I'm pretty sure Shields was actively shopped this off-season, (or am I confusing with Scott Kazmir), so the question is: Would our prospect haul sent to Kansas City have been enough to get James Shields? If so, did we make a mistake holding out for Greinke instead? I realize this is monday morning quarterbacking, given that Shields was coming off a poor 2010, but wow has he been on this year while Zack has struggled.

I hope Zack's last couple starts are a sign that he's "ready to roll", but man would I love to have Shields right now

[HiAndTight]

I'm pretty sure Shields was actively shopped this off-season, (or am I confusing with Scott Kazmir), so the question is: Would our prospect haul sent to Kansas City have been enough to get James Shields? If so, did we make a mistake holding out for Greinke instead? I realize this is monday morning quarterbacking, given that Shields was coming off a poor 2010, but wow has he been on this year while Zack has struggled.

I hope Zack's last couple starts are a sign that he's "ready to roll", but man would I love to have Shields right now

I would assume, given that Greinke was far, far more highly sought after than Shields that the prospects we sent to KC would have easily been enough to get Shields.

 

 

Still, I absolutely wouldn't go back and trade for Shields over Greinke.

 

 

By the way, Greinke has an FIP of 3.01 and an xFip of 2.14 this year. 11.75 K/9, a 1.85 BB/9 and a 6.33 K/BB ratio.

Shields has a 3.14 FIP, a 2.98 xFIP, 8.69 K/9, 2.30 BB/9 and a 3.77 K/BB ratio.

 

Now one of the most significant differences;

Greinke BABIP .335

Shields BABIP- .259

 

I think it's a pretty good bet that Greinke will out-pitch Shields the rest of the way. Particularly if we can acquire a SS and a 3rd basemen without cement feet.

 

 

So Monday Morning QB'ing, or Saturday Night QB'ing, I'll still take Greinke.

 

The only thing that may change that is if we could have gotten Shields without giving up Odorizzi. If we could have gotten him for Cain, Escobar, Jeffress and Rivas, I'd have taken Shields probably.

[pingman]

don't think there would of been a trade-match for Shields:

 

1) Rays had no need for Cain because they have Desmond Jennings

 

2) I'm not sure if they would of taken Escobar because they were high on Reid Brignac.....but they would today

 

3) they would take Odoriozzi & Jeffress

 

4) they needed a MLB ready closer, not sure of their interest in Axford......and a MLB ready 1B

[HiAndTight]

don't think there would of been a trade-match for Shields:

 

1) Rays had no need for Cain because they have Desmond Jennings

 

2) I'm not sure if they would of taken Escobar because they were high on Reid Brignac.....but they would today

 

3) they would take Odoriozzi & Jeffress

 

4) they needed a MLB ready closer, not sure of their interest in Axford......and a MLB ready 1B

I don't think they'd have had a problem taking Cain back. The presence of Jennings likely wouldn't have negated the need for Cain. There is obviously room for both in the OF for them.

And Brignac has played all over the place, so I doubt they'd have had a problem playing him elsewhere.

 

Again though, this supposes that Greinke and Shields had equal value this off-season. I don't think they had anywhere near the same value coming into the year. I think you could have gotten Shields for say Odorizzi, Cain and Jeffress for instance.

[nate82]

Again though, this supposes that Greinke and Shields had equal value this off-season. I don't think they had anywhere near the same value coming into the year. I think you could have gotten Shields for say Odorizzi, Cain and Jeffress for instance.

 

 

Greinke and Shields had equal value in the off-season. Just because a player has a bad year previously does not mean their value drops. Nearly everyone thinks this and this is mostly a knee jerk reaction as fans to state that a player has lost value when they have not. You have to look at more than what the player did the past year you have to look at the contract, the value the player adds to the team, and what the players potential is. With all of that being said Shields value may have dropped a small amount but it wasn't enough for Shields value to be lower than that of Greinke's.

A more realistic trade would be Odorizzi, Jeffress, Gamel, and Rogers. That would have been the asking price for Shields.

[Scooter1027]

I didn't see this mentioned anywhere else, so I thought I'd add this onto this thread...just a tidbit I read on Baseball Prospectus, an article written by John Perrotto:

 

"The Brewers’ trading might not end with Francisco Rodriguez, as they are also interested in Rays right-hander James Shields, who would join off-season acquisitions Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo and veteran left-hander Randy Wolf in a potentially devastating rotation. The Rangers, Reds, and Tigers are also suitors for Shields"

 

What do you think of this? Do you think we possibly have the pieces to make such a deal now in our post-Grienke trade farm system? And even if we do, would we want to spend them on another SP when we have much more glaring needs elsewhere? Sure would be a helluva rotation, through Narvy hasn't done anything to merit losing a rotation spot.

[RockCoCougars]

It's a nice thought- but is it me or have the Brewers basically been linked with every guy out there that's on the block?

[HiAndTight]

Again though, this supposes that Greinke and Shields had equal value this off-season. I don't think they had anywhere near the same value coming into the year. I think you could have gotten Shields for say Odorizzi, Cain and Jeffress for instance.

 

 

Greinke and Shields had equal value in the off-season. Just because a player has a bad year previously does not mean their value drops. Nearly everyone thinks this and this is mostly a knee jerk reaction as fans to state that a player has lost value when they have not. You have to look at more than what the player did the past year you have to look at the contract, the value the player adds to the team, and what the players potential is. With all of that being said Shields value may have dropped a small amount but it wasn't enough for Shields value to be lower than that of Greinke's.

A more realistic trade would be Odorizzi, Jeffress, Gamel, and Rogers. That would have been the asking price for Shields.

I said nothing of his value dropping because of a bad year, I don't believe his value was nearly as high in 2010, 2009, 2008.

Two different pitchers going into last year.

 

 

Greinke in 2008, 2009 and 2010 had WAR's of 4.9, 9.4 and 5.2.

Shields in 2008, 2009 and 2010 had WAR's of 4.1, 3.9, 2.2.

 

 

So...I think it's ridiculous to suggest their values were even comparable, it's not a knee jerk reaction to anything other than the totality of their careers.

 

Though the lesson on how to evaluate players is surely appreciated....

[HiAndTight]

I didn't see this mentioned anywhere else, so I thought I'd add this onto this thread...just a tidbit I read on Baseball Prospectus, an article written by John Perrotto:

 

"The Brewers’ trading might not end with Francisco Rodriguez, as they are also interested in Rays right-hander James Shields, who would join off-season acquisitions Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo and veteran left-hander Randy Wolf in a potentially devastating rotation. The Rangers, Reds, and Tigers are also suitors for Shields"

 

What do you think of this? Do you think we possibly have the pieces to make such a deal now in our post-Grienke trade farm system? And even if we do, would we want to spend them on another SP when we have much more glaring needs elsewhere? Sure would be a helluva rotation, through Narvy hasn't done anything to merit losing a rotation spot.

The last I've seen, the Rays aren't going to trade Shields.

 

And this would be buying high, which we probably don't have the pieces for anyway. It'd be great to get him. He's a very nice pitcher, with a very affordable contract, but not likely for the haul it'll take.

[TheCrew07]

I wanted to acquire Shields for Fielder in 2008 when fangraphs had them rated the 29th and 30th most valuable players in baseball. The rating took into account how much length of service they had left, their contract status, and their production. The other deal I really liked was a Santana/Kotchman for Fielder proposal that someone else had dropped in a Sabathia thread if I remember correctly. The trendy pitching topics around that time revolved around the obvious rental players that could have possibly been had, it's back around page 18 for me but I have 50 topics per page. Just doing a quick browse to confirm my memory players like Harden, Sabathia, Peavy, Greinke, Bedard, Halladay, Hernandez, and A. J. Burnett all being talked about... I had totally forgotten about the Mark A./Bucks rumor.

 

Out of all the various topics young pitchers that were being shopped and could have been had like Niemann and Morrow were barely discussed, Morrow drew 2 whole posts in his thread.

 

The reasons you didn't see me mention Niemann in this thread is that I honestly thought Sonnanstine was going to be the guy to go instead of Jackson, and Niemann was already on the block and the Brewers weren't being linked to him at all. I liked the idea of him so I used the "Niemann type pitcher" in many of my arguments. Also at the time of the post I didn't realize that Marcum had blown out his elbow.

 

I've always favored long-term solutions, even before pitching was all the rage again.

[TheCrew]

Greinke and Shields had equal value in the off-season. Just because a player has a bad year previously does not mean their value drops. Nearly everyone thinks this and this is mostly a knee jerk reaction as fans to state that a player has lost value when they have not.

Don't really buy that - for example, I think we could have got a bit more than Carlos Gomez for Hardy had he been traded 1 year previous to his bad year.

 

Also, just because certain players had equal value or close to it doesn't mean that the asking price from 2 different teams will be anywhere close. I don't think the Rays would have took that package without Ax being included and I'm still not sure they would have then, would have depended on their interest in Escobar. I'm still shocked the Royals took the package they did and I think it would have been far more difficult to match up with the Rays and I think they would have asked for more.

[HiAndTight]

Greinke and Shields had equal value in the off-season. Just because a player has a bad year previously does not mean their value drops. Nearly everyone thinks this and this is mostly a knee jerk reaction as fans to state that a player has lost value when they have not.

Don't really buy that - for example, I think we could have got a bit more than Carlos Gomez for Hardy had he been traded 1 year previous to his bad year.

 

Also, just because certain players had equal value or close to it doesn't mean that the asking price from 2 different teams will be anywhere close. I don't think the Rays would have took that package without Ax being included and I'm still not sure they would have then, would have depended on their interest in Escobar. I'm still shocked the Royals took the package they did and I think it would have been far more difficult to match up with the Rays and I think they would have asked for more.

Agreed. I can also get behind the argument that we got Greinke for cheap, and that the Rays may have been more demanding with regard to Shields. So perhaps in that regard Shields would have cost more. Maybe. But I still maintain that you were talking about two different levels of pitchers coming into this season. Greinke I think was significantly more valued than Shields.