Brewers Top 10 Prospects -- Latest: Sickels Re-Visists His Pre-Season Top 20

TooLiveBrew · July 19, 2011

What a cool thread. I hope I have time to work on my own list before the new P50 goes up.

Thanks for all the posts so far, great read.

sfl2hnq17 · July 19, 2011

I agree with scooter on 1-9 but will argue with him on Gagnon. obviously hasnt shown enough for me (i am as excited about him as i was about thornburg last summer). im a big ozuna and fiers fan but i dont who i would put 10. 10a and 10b?

mrpackersfan1 · July 19, 2011

What a cool thread. I hope I have time to work on my own list before the new P50 goes up.

Thanks for all the posts so far, great read.

Haha thanks. I looked through the threads and couldn't find one, so I just started a new thread. I hope it will be a top thread

YoungGeezy · July 19, 2011

Well to me, the list is Yaddy Rivera and 9 other guys, he is just that far ahead right now http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

In all seriousness though, this is kind of what I am thinking

Top Tier (Guys I feel are legit top 50-100 minor league prospects

1. Wily Peralta

2. Tyler Thornburg

*Reason being is simply Peralta has a longer track record. Love both, when it comes to pure stuff I it is close but Wily may have him. Overall to me it is more 1a & 1b as it is 1 and 2

Second Tier (Everyday Starter)

3. Cody Scarpetta- when is lower body is right and he is throwing strikes, sky is the limit, when his lower half is off and he is out of the zone, the limit is the sky. One of the sickest curveballs I have seen out of a Brewer minor league pitcher in awhile. Has the fastball to match. Just needs to throw strikes

4. Taylor Green- Was so promising a few years ago then the wrist injuries came and his future looked like a UT IF at best, now they are heeled and has me thinking he could be a legit starting 3rd baseman or a Jeff Kent like 2nd if something was to ever happen. Excited to see the wrist back and him back to form.

5. Scooter Gennett- Had one terrible month this season which hurt the numbers but still is a promising prospect. Like to see him add at least a little to his ultra-tiny frame but I will stick with my belief that he could be a Dustin Pedroia

6. Mark Rogers- Healthy and throwing strikes, he is top tier 1-3 range, right now, 6 is extremely nice. I personally think it is time to look to the future and make use of that explosive arm and switch him to the pen, but we will see. Think Peralta will earn the next rotation opening when one comes, which where does that leave Mark?

7. Khris Davis- No secret, I love the the guy, he has single handedly made me a Reid Nichols hater due to the way he has been treated and held back. While doesn't have an arm, what more could you ask of a player? He is dominating in a pitchers league, unlike Brock who had one awesome month and 2 1/2 not so good, he has had 3 1/2 awesome months and the is 0! reason that he should still be in A+. I think he will be an everyday starter someday soon (Maybe with the Mets since Nichols doesn't want him)

8.Caleb Gindl- I have always like Gindl and am excited to see the way he is playing in his first go of AAA ball. Do I think he is an everyday starter....im right on the fence. Still young, I think the biggest question is does he repeat AAA or compete for the 4th OF spot? Is the 4th OF good for his development? Curious to see.

9. Kyle Heckathorn- Ugh, he gets outs and that is what really matters but not a fan of falling out of my chair in excitement if he can rack up 5-6ks in an outing. You expect that out of your top pitching prospects. He is a good pitcher and I really like him but I get fustrated just waiting for that big game where the k's finally come. I think right now he is more of a 4-5 since he is just a groundball pitcher but if he can start to finally find a way to miss a few bats he will quickly start to look like a 2-4 (mean I think 3)

10. Logan Schafer- Can hit, cna play D. and the Brewers have shown that they really like the kid. He is not a WOW player but is a guy who is all around good. Hard to really find spots to nag on (outside of injuries). Hope he gets to AAA soon.

HM

Erik Komatsu-close but not completely sold on him being everyday starter. I see him as a really nice 4th guy but yeah, if he can't stick at CF, in my eyes his stock drops a bit.

Amaury Rivas- Consistancy, he doesn't have that pure stuff like Peralta and Scarpetta were it is easy to overlook some flaws but still think he is a nice 4-5 option or a long reliever. (An Estrada type)

Nicholas Bucci- Hit a rough patch but he is still very young, learning, and growing as a pitcher. Still not sold on him as a top 10 yet but a strong finish in BC and a good season in AA next year could easily put him in.

Hunter Morris- Think he is going to be an everyday player but don't think he has quite as much upside as the Davis, Gindl, Scooter, Schafer

Eic Farris- Think we will be a great addition next season to the offense as the main UT IF next season. Offers defense, a decent bat, and speed.

Santo Manzanillo- great back end of rotation stuff. Can light up the gun and has been throwing strikes

Rob Wotten- Favorite Brewers reliever in the system, if not injuries last season he would be in Milwaukee. 09 AA Braddock-Wooten combo to close out games.....sick! Happy he is back, get him to AAA....NOW!

Ruben Ozuna- Ruben Sanchez was maybe one of my top 5 favs in 10' to follow, name may has changed but not much else. Seid just raved about the kid and he has advanced three levels in 2 months. Not to bad.

The why nots

Kentrail and D'Vo have so much potential but have yet to really shine and when they do it turns right back off ( D'Vo will hit .320 in a month then hit .180, then hit .300 then hit .215) Both can quickly rise.

Orlando Arcia- yes, yes, yes, I understand how talented he is (remember I am a DSL Nut, favorite team to follow) but I cannot put a 17 year old DSL player in the top 10 after 2 months. He has tools, can hit the crap out of the ball, is a SS, is brother is on his way to being a top 20 player in all of minor league ball but I just like a little track record. Now if next season he starts in Helena and starts hitting crazy, then I am all in, but state first. Really same boat as Ozuna. Prove yourself here and you will move up. (No, not saying Ozuna is more talent either as some may take it)

Jimmy Nelson- The cold weather of Wisconsin doesn't help to many pitchers and hitters to get rolling in April and into May but as the summer has heated up so has Nelson. I am happy to see him turning it on but after such a rough start and not exciting all-round numbers, we will need to keep rolling before I can move him up

Who will move up fast

Yadiel Rivera, Orlando Arcia, Brooks Hall, Tyler "Big Country" Roberts, Max Walla, Jose Garcia, STOSH! are some of the guys I really like. Andres Martinez as well but not excited that he is no longer playing SS (at least yet). Schaub is a guy who I'm anxious to see.

hyerbro1 · July 19, 2011

1. Wily Peralta - I am putting him here based on Klaw report that he was hitting 98, 6 months younger than Thornburg and at AA
2. Tyler Thornburg - I'll admit I don't like hearing that a top prospect has a funky delivery however I will be teaching my son to throw like Josh Collmenter
3. Nic Bucci - Similar numbers to Heckathorn at A+, but is 2 years younger
4. Taylor Green - It is nice to see him back on these top 10 lists
5. Caleb Gindl - Last year was a down year for him but his OPS has been solid every other year
6. Cody Scarpatta - His numbers are very similar to Peralta's
7. Kyle Heckathorn - Seems to be making solid progress
8. Kris Davis - Gotta love the numbers, would love to see him in AA
9. Hunter Morris - Also, would like to see him in AA
10. Yadiel Rivera - If he didn't hit for the cycle yesterday he probably wouldn't be on the list but his overall numbers are good, he'll still be young for A ball next year

Mass Haas · July 20, 2011

4. Taylor Green - has me thinking he could be a legit starting 3rd baseman or a Jeff Kent like 2nd if something was to ever happen.

5. Scooter Gennett - Like to see him add at least a little to his ultra-tiny frame but I will stick with my belief that he could be a Dustin Pedroia .

Love the enthusiasm, but if we're comparing #'s 4 and 5 to past league MVP winners, then maybe the outlook is a tad high.

JohnBriggs12 · July 20, 2011

I'll give it a try:

1. Tyler Thornburg - He's making the loss of Odorizzi a little easier to take. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in rotation in 2013

2. Michael Fiers - Yeah, he's 26, but he got a late start and his numbers are the best by far of anyone in the top two levels. See you in September Michael.

3. Nic Bucci - Never has been overmatched against older players

4. Wily Peralta - Making solid progress. May earn a Sept. call up.

5. Taylor Green - Can't ignore the success he's having. In the mix for 3B job, but not until 2012

6. Yadiel Rivera - Has a long way to go, but is exciting. 2014 should be his target Let the Starlin Castro comparisons begin.

7. Logan Schafer - A little concern about his power numbers dropping off from 09, but I expect a Taylor Green return to prominence.

8. Kyle Heckathorn - I expect him to put up good solid numbers

9. Caleb Gindl - In line for Kotsay's role in 2012?

10. D'Vontrey Richardson - All the signs are pointing to this guy fulfilling his promise

My sleeper is Sean Halton. Nobody talks about this guy, but he's improved as he's risen. If he puts up numbers next year in Nashville like he is in Huntsville this season, he'll keep pressure on Gamel for sure.

CheezWizHed · July 20, 2011

Ok, I plopped down #1 and #2 immediately, then had to make a list and put the rest in order, so there is a bit of a gap there.

1. Tyler Thornburg - He just keeps impressing.

2. Wily Peralta - Probably has the highest potential of our SPs (or second to Rogers)

3. Nick Bucci - What can I say, I'm a believer!

4. Khris Davis - No surprise, as I've defended him in several spots around this board. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

5. Taylor Green - Call me crazy, but I still like him better than Lawrie at 3B.

6. Michael Fiers - Where would he be now if the Brewers started him at AAA to begin the season (like they should have)?

7. Logan Schafer - Good CF Defense, decent bat with good OBP numbers.

8. Caleb Gindl - Not splashy and doesn't stand out in any one area, but very solid all-around.

9. Amuary Rivas - Not pitching like he used to, but still has #3-4 SP potential.

10. Maldonado - Haven't seen anyone list him, but an excellent defensive catcher that is beginning to hit.

HM (no order implied):

- Heckathorn - I can see him as similar to Rivas, but a step lower.

- Scarpetta - Probably should be in my top 10, but I just have problems with his hot/cold streaks.

- Rogers - Injuries, Injuries, Injuries...

- Y Rivera - He and Arcia give our system SS woes some hope.

- Komatsu - I like Little Pine, but is a bit of a tweener. Just a hiccup lower than Gindl.

- Richardson - Ok, I'm beginning to see something here.

TheCrew07 · July 20, 2011

Ok, I plopped down #1 and #2 immediately, then had to make a list and put the rest in order, so there is a bit of a gap there.

I'm pretty sure that's what everyone did, at least that's what I did.

filthyfrog · July 20, 2011

5. Taylor Green - Call me crazy, but I still like him better than Lawrie at 3B.

Ok, you are crazy. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I'm having trouble understanding how some people here can be excited by this list of prospects. Sure, there's a lot to like, but there's very little to love. I like Thornburg and Peralta, but I'd like them a lot more if they were our 7th and 8th best prospects. Most of these lists have someone who might top out as an average Major League regular in the number 3 spot. Most lists have multiple fourth outfielders in the top 10. Seriously, take a look at any random top 10 list and ask yourself how many All Star appearances the entire list will combine for. Probably zero. Lots of guys have the potential to be a star one day, but none of them except for maybe Thornburg, who has yet to prove anything past A ball and has his doubters in the scouting world, are on that sort of track right now. We don't have a single blue chip, sure thing prospect for the first time in about 8 years.

I don't mean to sound overly negative. We've promoted and traded a lot of talent in the last couple years, so it's not like we're not developing anything. It's just that I don't think it's realistic to look at this farm system right now and think it compares favorably with the rest of the league.

ramssuperbowl99 · July 20, 2011

I wrote this for a different site a long time ago, so I may as well post my own "Power 50". Keep in mind the stats are from a while back, but I thought it's a different take on the Power 50, since the 50 is more "production based" whereas my list is much more based on ceiling and the search for impact players. Also, worth noting that I included draft picks.

Brewers' Top 50 Prospects June 26th 2011

1. Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech (Unsigned)

It bodes well for the Brewers draft (and terribly for the Brewers system) that both of our top 2 prospects come from the draft. Bradley has all the makings of a frontline starter and is a deserving number 1 prospect and possible top 100 overall prospect. He has the size and frame from the left side which scouts love, and at 6’4”, 225 pounds he is expected to be a 200 IP MLB workhorse. His stuff is also praised, with a fastball that has touched the high 90’s but generally sits 91-94 mph, which is outstanding for a lefty. He has developing off speed stuff, highlighted by a nice slider and changeup, the latter of which features nice arm action. His mechanics won’t need any major tinkering, and aside from getting used to pro baseball and perfecting some of his secondary stuff, Bradley has a very short to do list before being major league ready. The major concern with Bradley, and the only real reason he was available at #15, was his decreased velocity before the draft. This isn’t terribly unusual, as the man has pitched a great deal of innings between the Cape Cod league and being the Yellow Jacket’s ace, so it’s likely he hit the wall. The time off while signing is likely good, as Bradley can get him arm some rest and come to rookie or low A ball ready to flash his top of the rotation stuff.

2. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas (Unsigned)

Jungmann, a 6’6” RHP from Texas, was the Brewers’ top pick in the most recent draft at 12th overall. He has nice velocity on his fastball, touching 94-95 mph with some regularity and flirting with the upper 90’s. He also has the physical build of an ace, as he worked hard over his 3 year career at Texas to take his rail thin 180 pound frame to a healthy 225 pounds. Personally, I think he has 10 to 15 pounds of muscle to still add, and therefore even a little bit more projection in is sheer velocity. Despite his nice fastball and his dominant college seasons, Jungmann has some concerns. The most blatant downside is that he doesn’t quite offer the same potential as Bradley since he failed to miss enough bats and rack up the strikeouts we would expect from a true college ace. This is because his secondary stuff comes in as merely passable, with a fringe changeup and breaking ball that are going to need some polish at the major league level. The Brewers have often improved their players’ changeups (looking at a guy like Chris Narveson here), so maybe they feel they can do the same with Taylor. If that happens, he shoots up prospect lists, but until then, he’s going to be a Robin to someone else’s Batman. Further, he has the ideal size, but I question his ability to go 200 IP a year because his mechanics are a little goofy. Specifically, he kind of throws across his shoulder and jerks his head a little bit, which is sure to hurt his command. I’m not sure whether the Brewers plan to correct this (Doug Melvin said he might be a late season call up, so I doubt it at least in the short term), but that might be key in improving his overall potential.

3. Wily Peralta, RHP, AA

Peralta moved into the number 1 spot before the draft after the complete nose-dive Mark Rogers took, but it was more by default than anything else. While he’s sporting a high AA ERA, his FIP has dropped substantially to 3.45 and the strikeouts are back up to more than a batter per inning. However, he allows walks at a decent enough clip that you’re still left wondering why he hasn’t taken that next step. Peralta’s stuff is quite good – his fastball has nice life and sits in the low 90’s and his changeup and slider each project as league average. That kind of package gives him middle of the rotation upside, and his frame, while unorthodox at 6’1, 250 pounds, leads scouts to believe he can handle the workload. What has stopped Peralta is inconsistency, and while he has steadily risen through the minor league ranks, he has yet to really dominate any of them. It’s becoming more and more likely that this is the real Wily Peralta, and a back end starter or dominant bullpen arm is his future. He still has plenty of time to figure it out, but he needs to dominate minor league levels before he can force his way into a major league rotation.

4. Mat Gamel, 1B, AAA

Gamel, the once top 100 prospect and 3B of the future for the Brewers, has kind of been given a raw deal by the organization. While he never was a good enough defender to stick in 3B, I thought he could play a decent corner OF or 1B. Having been stuck at AAA for the better part of 3 years with brief call-ups in between (61 games in 2009 and 12 games as a DH in 2010), Gamel has been in no-man’s land with Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Ryan Braun consistently producing. That said, the man can hit. While he’s no spring chicken anymore at 26, his line of .319/.380/.561 with 16 HRs and 21 2Bs in 74 games should open some eyes. He’s major league ready, having cut down on his strike outs in successive years in AAA (32.6% K rate in 2009, 20.6 in 2010, and 16.8 in 2011). While he won’t replace Prince Fielder, he’s a good hitter who is major league ready and can probably OPS .800 in the major leagues. More immediately, if the Brewers want he offers a powerful super-utility option and a great platoon partner off the bench, especially because he would be the lone power source off the bench. Melvin and co., however, seem content to let him continue to rake in AAA.

5. Jorge Lopez, RHP, Puerto Rico HS (Unsigned)

Lopez, a 6’4” RHP from Puerto Rico, has all the tools you look for in a young arm. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and his frame offers tantalizing upside for more. His delivery is slow-paced and easy, so perhaps the refining of his lower body mechanics and a slight drop to a true three-quarters delivery might give his velocity an immediate boost. He already has a nice changeup, and his curveball appears to be relatively tight. It says plenty about his upside that he’s a top 5 prospect, as there is nothing stopping him from being a top of the rotation starter. However, as with all high school arms, we don’t really know how he’ll develop. He needs to work on his command and refine his secondary stuff. Further, he needs to add weight to his 175 pound frame and might do well to add a fourth pitch (whether it’s a cutter, slider, or something else). Either way, Lopez needs to sign so that he can get stateside and working in the AZL.

6. Tyler Thornburg, RHP, A

This is what I wrote on Thornburg about a week ago:

I was tempted to rank Thornburg, a former 3rd round pick in 2010 out of Charleston Southern, a fair bit higher. After all, he has simply overpowered Midwest League pitching so far, with a K/9 of 10.0, a BB/9 of 3.3 and an ERA well below 2. His combination of a mid-90’s fastball, true hammer curveball, and developing changeup gives him the plus raw stuff that would lead you to believe in him as a starter long term. However, his size (5’11”, 185 pounds) and previous workload suggest that Thornburg is not going to be capable of handling the workload of a major league starter. Until he proves it at a higher level (*ahem Doug Melvin) and keeps his stuff deep into the prospect season, the lingering questions about his durability will continue. His mechanics offer some hope, however. He evokes a Tim Lincecum or Trevor Bauer like motion, and given where Bauer went in the draft, it’s clear that teams are starting to believe in shorter starters with that type of motion. Maybe the Brewers were simply ahead of the curve on that, drafting a guy who has middle of the rotation upside in the 3rd round. We’ll see, but for now it’s safe to say Tyler has earned himself a promotion and a longer leash as a starter.

I had him 8th then, and after thinking about it and seeing his start tonight, I bumped him up 2 spots. The Brewers took my hint and promoted them. The early results in High A Brevard County? 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB. The 2 hits were bloops down the line, and he got 4 ground balls without allowing a fly ball out. He retired 15 of the 18 batters he faced, and really shouldn’t have given up any runs. It’s starting to become more apparent that he’s on a fast track to Huntsville, as his stuff has just completely overwhelmed hitters. We might have something here.

7. Cody Scarpetta, RHP, AA

Scarpetta is actually quite similar to Peralta in frame, with some excess weight and compensating for less than optimal height. Stuff wise, Scarpetta also throws a nice low 90’s fastball, but has a much more devastating curveball that still appears to be the best in the system. The reason Scarpetta is ranked behind Peralta on this list is his continuing problem to discover his proper mechanics and the walks that result from his inconsistent motion. Scarpetta walks about 5 guys per 9 on a normal basis, which absolutely kills his potential. His stuff is dominant enough that he typically strikes out more than 10 per 9, though AA has been a difficult adjustment for Scarpetta as the ERA is up and the strikeout rate is down. Ultimately, his ability to start is going to be decided based on how efficient he can be with his pitches, how many HRs he allows as a flyball pitcher, and how many walks he gives up. Detrimental to his development is his lack of options – this is the last year the Brewers can option him to the minor leagues without subjecting him to waivers, where he would certainly be picked up by another club. Therefore, Scarpetta needs to continue to work on his motion and his consistency to limit the walks or risk being thrown into the bullpen (where his stuff would make him dominant immediately).

8. Taylor Green, 3B, AAA

Green has rocketed up this list based on his good defensive play, improved bat despite a promotion, and his apparent health. Some long time Brewer system followers will remember Green had nice power in the lower minors, when he was a hotter prospect, but then had a wrist injury that really debilitated him. He appears to be healthier now, and while he’s not young for the level, his triple slash line in Nashville of .308/.374/.542 with a 25:40 BB:K ratio means he’s hitting and is comfortable at the highest level. Further, Green is basically MLB ready and just needs to continue to work on his approach at the plate and any last minute adjustments defensively. I can’t imagine Green will be eligible the next time I make this list given the Super 2 cutoff, Casey McGehee’s struggles at the plate and the Brewers’ win-now mentality. In a system that has been desperate for a guy to step up and take his game to the next level, Green has done just that. While he doesn’t have a standout tool, he should hit for league average power and get on base relatively frequently while not striking out at a terrible rate. That and league average defense at the hot corner makes him a valuable asset, albeit with a lower ceiling.

9. Hunter Morris, 1B, A+

Morris, a slugging first baseman from Auburn, was a 4th round pick for the Brewers in last years’ draft. The Brewers challenged him with a low A promotion right out of the draft and he responded with a tremendous show of power hitting 33 XBHs in just over 300 PAs. There were concerns that he was overmatched, however, as his approach at the plate limited his walks and kept his strikeouts relatively high (a 20:58 BB:K). The Brewers once again challenged Morris, promoting him to the pitcher-friendly High A Florida State League. Morris has essentially maintained his performance, which is impressive for a guy with less than 500 professional ABs, but in order to move up this list he needs to develop his approach. So far Morris has walked only 12 times in 62 games, and while the XBHs keep pouring in, he won’t be able to be a competent big league first baseman OBPing .311. Indeed, Morris’ triple slash line tells all the info you really need: .279/.311/.498 – the man has nice contact and power ability with no walking ability whatsoever. This produces a difficult prospect to rank, as plate approach is often improved with age and it wouldn’t be a stretch to project Morris’ walk rate to improve as he becomes more comfortable with the level he’s placed at. This, combined with his substantial power (ISO over .200 consistently) make him a nice long-term solution to replace some of Prince Fielder’s production. But we just haven’t seen it, and until we do, he’s going to remain in the latter half of the top 10.

10. Kentrail Davis, OF, A+

Davis is kind of the anti-Hunter Morris, a guy who came into baseball as a supplemental 1st round pick from Tennessee who has always had a great plate approach (a MiLB career BB:K of approximately .7). Further, he has yet to show the real power that he was praised for out of college. With minor league ISOs in the FSL of approximately .100 and no ability to play a good CF in the MLB, Davis is stuck in limbo. If he plays CF, his defense will likely sap away his value, but his bat would be well above average. If he plays RF, his defense will likely be plus, but his bat wouldn’t be able to compete without a substantial increase in power. The league, sample size and a hamstring could be partially responsible for the power outage, since the FSL is notoriously tough on power hitters and Davis hasn’t had many healthy FSL ABs. Regardless, I’m getting concerned. Further, it’s too early to know what kind of average Davis is going to hit for in the big leagues. His time a low A Wisconsin is a BABIP fluctuation, and it’s hard for me to believe his .245 average in the FSL. I’d think the perfect case scenario would be a .270 average, but a nice sample size in Huntsville would be required. Davis still has the tools, despite his lack of size, to hit for average to maybe a tick above average power in the big leagues. He needs to show those tools on the field to establish his future as a true RFer. Otherwise, he profiles as a useful 4th OFer and lefty bat off the bench.

11. D’Vontrey Richardson, CF, A+

At first glance, Richardson doesn’t look like he’s made many strides. The former football player from FSU and 5th round pick of the Brewers has always had the raw tools and high ceiling that merits interest, but struck out too often to be considered anything more than a project. He seemed to turn the corner in the latter part of the low A season, so the Brewers promoted him to high A Brevard County. Richardson has struggled with injuries all season, which has impeded his progress drastically. Despite the lack of time, the early returns are promising. His strikeout rate in 2010 was 31.4% and is now 17.2% - nearly half of what it was. His walk rate has suffered a little bit, dropping from 9.8% to 7.0%, but the K rate drop offers hope for his average. While Richardson has the power to hit home runs and the speed to steal bases on a regular basis, his SB:CS ratio of 3:5 shows just how raw he is. The power, too, will come, as the 3 HRs are more of a product of the terrible run environment than anything else. If D’Vontrey can continue to make progress and work on his polish, he represents a 20-20 CF thread with plus defense. Naturally, it’s unlikely he’s ever that good, but he’s improved his performance from last season substantially despite being at a higher level and a worse run environment. I’m eager to see if he can continue improving both this season and when he faces more advanced pitching.

12. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP A+

Heckathorn, a former Brewers supplemental 1st rounder, was always favorite of mine due to his great size (6’6”, 225 pounds) and his reported upper 90’s velocity in college. He slipped to the supplemental round due to lack of polish and control, but in reality we’ve seen the exact opposite pitcher. Heckathorn has never posted a strikeout rate above 7.3 and never posted a walk rate above 2.6 (both those rates are from this season in the FSL). This would be fine if his velocity hadn’t decreased by upwards of 4 or 5 mph, but Heckathorn is now pitching in the low 90’s and high 80’s, which, given his frame and previous speed is disturbing.

13. Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina High School (Unsigned)

Rodon is the most likely prospect on this list never to be involved with the organization, as his draft-day comments make it look more and more like he’s going to NC State. He has a number, and it’s believed to be about $750,000, and he isn’t thrilled with the organization already. The Brewers asked him if he would sign for slot money in the 4th round ($250,000), he said no, and the Brewers drafted him in the 16th without contacting him. He’s probably about a 4th round talent, as his fastball tops out at 92 mph, he has a slider and a curveball with good feel for both and could develop a nice changeup as he’s a good athlete. At 6’2” and 210 pounds, he has a good frame, and while scouts said he was inconsistent from start to start, he offers #2 starter-type upside if he’s brought into the fold.

14. Scooter Gennett, 2B, A+

Gennett, the resident tool-less 2B midget of the Brewers farm system, was a late-round bonus baby for the Brewers in 2009. He shifted around positions for a while now, but it appears his final destination is going to be at 2B. As a 20 year old in the Midwest League, Gennett put up a nice contact line of .309/.354/.463 and displayed an impressive hit tool. This year, in the Florida State League, Gennett has seen his line suffer to the tune of .270/.315/.335. Most notably, the gap power that manifested in the form of 39 2Bs in 2010 has decreased to 6 in roughly half the games. Gennett has never had the tools to warrant an elite ranking, and, unfortunately, he’s going to have to force evaluators to rank him higher at every step in the prospect ladder. As soon as his production drops, his ranking is going to plummet, and that’s why he’s here. Gennett needs to continue to work on limiting the strikeouts and walking more while maintaining gap power to force a spot with the big club. With Rickie Weeks firmly entrenched at 2B in Milwaukee, Gennett is likely to be an organizational type player, but if he rams down the door at AA he might be a trade chip or utility player.

15. Andrew Gagnon, RHP, Helena

Gagnon, the Brewers 3rd round pick out of Long Beach State, is another tall pitcher with a nice fastball (this was a big time theme this year!). He is 6’4” and 190 pounds, sits in the low-90’s and has touched 94 this spring for Long Beach State. Like most other Brewer draftees, he has a fairly easy delivery and needs to refine his secondary stuff. His slider, which is 82-85, and his curveball, which is a 12-6 breaker at 79-82 tended to blend a little bit during his college career. If he can develop a better feel for those offerings and learn to pitch to lefties with his changeup (that is 82-85 and is fringe average), he offers nice mid-rotation upside in the big leagues. He doesn’t quite have the fastball or the command of his secondary stuff to offer that elite upside, but he certainly could be a nice workhorse. All in all, he was taken a round later than Jimmy Nelson of the 2010 Draft, and not only offers more upside, but better stuff and more immediate projection of his talent. This is a guy who won’t ever make you drool with Dustin Ackley-like excitement (this is a test to see if Hawkman is reading this far since he dared me to do this), but he could be a valuable asset.

16. Nick Bucci, RHP, A+

Bucci has always been a favorite of the Brewers brass, but until now didn’t really warrant top prospect status. The most improved Brewer farmhand of the first two months, Bucci has breezed through the FSL so far based on his impressive, polished repertoire and velocity increase. His previously fringe fastball is now sitting in the low 90’s and his secondary stuff is getting more swings and misses. Add in a drop in his walk rate and a slight uptick in his strikeout rate, and you have a guy who may be able to provide consistent innings at the back end of a rotation. His performance at the FSL so far this year (3.91 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9) means that he could actually move quickly through the system. The Brewers have always liked Bucci, so he might be a candidate for a promotion to Huntsville before the year is done. Further, his recent velocity spike and decent size (6’2”, 180 pounds) makes me wonder if there isn’t another mph or two on that fastball the Brewers couldn’t work out with some lifting and mechanical tweaks. Either way, Bucci has gone from a run-of-the-mill organizational guy to a prospect that is worth keeping a solid eye on.

17. Michael Reed, CF/RF, Texas High School (Unsigned)

Reed, a 6 foot, 210 pound CF/RF is loaded with tools but carried mixed opinions on where he should have been drafted. Scouts who saw him on his good nights said he was a second to third round pick who has plus speed, a plus arm and raw power. The guys who saw him on off nights didn’t quite see the same raw hitting ability, and had him more in the 6th round. Either way, he has touched 90 mph from the mound, giving no doubt on his arm strength. Brewers’ fans should hope he is stashed in rookie ball and extended spring training to work on his pitch recognition and contact skills. Hopefully the upside manifests itself, as Reed offers significant star potential at the MLB level and could be a first round pick if he elects to go to college. This might be a tough sign, unfortunately, as Reed is committed to Ole Miss and it might take $750k or so to pry him away.

18. Danny Keller, RHP, Unknown Assignment

Keller has all the upside you could dream of for a high school right hander: he’s big (6’6”, 190 pounds), projectable, and already throws a 91-92 mph 2-seamer and a decent curveball. He slipped to the Brewers in the 6th round because scouts did not like his feel for pitching, his mechanics (which contain some violence with his head) and his lack of control. I feel like the issues are related, for the most part, and if the Brewers stick Keller in extended spring training or rookie ball for a while this could be a pick that pays off big time. Keller, like all high school righties, needs to develop a changeup to ensure he is a starter, but the future could be very, very bright for the big righty.

19. Caleb Gindl, OF, AAA

Gindl, a 22 year old OFer, fits the profile of many Brewers OF prospects – he can’t really play CF but he’d be a plus (plus?) corner OFer. At 5’9”, Gindl is another undersized Brewers prospect who is constantly forced to prove people long and move slowly up the ladder. He’s done so, having success at virtually every minor league level. Spending the entire year at AAA, Gindl has seen his strikeouts shoot up from 16.8% in 2010 (AA) to 24.4% in 2011. The upside is that he actually has a decent amount of pop, with a career minor league ISO of about .160 and a walk rates between 10 and 12% the past 3 years. While he's probably limited to a 4th OF or utility guy that can play CF in a pinch, he can hit home runs, steal bases, walk when he needs to and hit alright. In short, not much star power here but he’s close to major league ready and he can offer the Brewers some serious value on the bench or in a spot-starting role.

20. David Goforth, RHP, Helena

Goforth was the Brewers 7th round pick despite being a reliever in college and lacking ideal size at 5’11”. He does have one big thing going for him – the velocity. Goforth has the ability to touch triple digits out of the bullpen routinely and can touch 97 mph as a starter. Unfortunately, his fastball is fairly flat and doesn’t have the movement (either life or tail) that you would want, but at 100, it doesn’t need to. His 2nd pitch is a cutter that sits around 90 mph and gives him a nice out pitch that he can throw for strikes. He has a slider and changeup, but doesn’t really throw them often. It’s also worthy to note that Goforth, despite the overpowering stuff, didn’t get the dominant results that were expected. I love power arms out of the bullpen, but Goforth needs to work on throwing strikes and potentially adding back his slider to realize his upside as a late-inning reliever.

21. Nick Ramirez, 1B, Helena

Ramirez, the Brewers 4th rounder, is a power-hitting 1B with a decent 6’3”, 225 pound frame. He had a great college career as both the major bat and closer in the CSF lineup/rotation, but failed to adjust to wood bats with Team USA in the summer. He is very strong, but lacks elite bat speed and can get long in his swing and exposed to pitches inside. He’s a fringe average defender at first and some scouts think the lefty power was the product of the metal bats of the pre-2011 college game. I’m low on Ramirez, but if he can work on pulling the ball a little more (his power is actually catered to the opposite field) and close up the holes in his swing, we might have an average 1B.

22. Erik Komatsu, OF, AA

Looking purely at numbers, Komatsu should rank a lot higher on this list. His triple slash line in the pitching-friendly FSL of .323/.413/.442 was fantastic and is backed up by a great 68-61 BB-K. This year, he’s basically followed up that season the same way, with a .307/.392/.422 line and an equally impressive 31-27 BB-K ratio in Huntsville. The former 8th round pick has done everything the Brewers could possible ask of him and while the power numbers aren’t great, he has gap power and could be a 30 2B guy in the big leagues. The problem is that the Brewers came out and said they simply don’t think Komatsu has the ability to play CF in the big leagues, and while the OBP is nice, the lack of power makes his ceiling a useful 4th OF-type player rather than a decent starting CF.

23. Joel Pierce, RHP, AZL

Pierce was the Brewers 7th round pick out of Canada, an area where the Brewers have consistently found talent the past few years. He has great size (6’4”, 200 pounds when he was drafted) and had low 90’s velocity on a fastball with life. At 17, he was a guy who we were hoping would be stashed away and developed into a front-line starter. Pierce is now in the AZL, making 1 start so far going 4 IP with 1 ER (a solo shot), 5 K, 1 BB, 5 H. He’s got a shot to set himself up for full season ball next season as a 19 year old and could be a big name prospect in the next few years if his slider and changeup develop some consistency. Right now, he’s the kind of guy you really want to keep an eye on because the upside is gigantic, even if he is far away from the majors.

24. Brooks Hall, RHP, A

Hall is a guy I’ve really liked since the Brewers took him in the early rounds of the 2008 draft as a 6’5” RHP and paid him nearly $1 million to keep him from honoring a South Carolina commitment. Hall was raw, but had mid-90’s velocity and top of the rotation upside. We haven’t seen it yet, as Hall has yet to strike out a batter per inning and has seen his velocity decrease to the high-80’s while flirting with 90. He’s stayed above water in the Midwest league this season and has shown a nice walk rate, so maybe he can regain his velocity and rocket up this list. For now, he’s a guy who has a potential to be a nice bullpen piece or an innings eater until his fastball improves. There’s still potential here, though.

25. Tyler Roberts, C, A

Country Roberts, a Brewers 10th round pick in the 2009 draft, has had a disappointing start to 2011. After destroying Arizona rookie ball in both 2009 and 2010, he has posted a .205/.264/.333 line so far in 40 games. The culprit is fairly straightforward – Roberts has struck out 20 more times in 3 less games while walking less. He’s just simply at a too advanced level and will do well to be demoted to Helena and work again on his discipline. Roberts does offer intriguing upside as a catcher because he has nice pop in his bat and reportedly plays good enough defense to stick at the position. Until he matures as a hitter, he’s a guy we just need to stash away and keep an eye on, however.

26. Logan Schafer, CF, AA

Going into this writeup, I was a little more excited than say, when I wrote Gindl’s prospect report because Schafer can play CF at the big league level and might actually, therefore, have upside. However, he’s really struggled in AA this season and lost nearly all of last season to injury. At nearly 25 years old, the prospect clock is ticking and his .282/.327/.350 line with only 5 XBHs and no homers says that he’s more of a slap hitter with no discipline than anything else. Schafer had upside at one point, and while it wasn’t very good, he’s becoming more and more of an organizational player who will need to regain his ability to draw walks and develop gap power to ever see significant big league time.

27. Brandon Kintzler, RHP, AAA

I guess it’s hard to classify Kintzler, a 26 year old reliever in AAA as a prospect, but why not? He’s been fighting injuries this year, but when he’s been healthy he’s been effective striking out more than a batter per inning and walking on 1.84 per inning in the big leagues. The HR/FB rate has inflated his ERA, but his 3 pitch mix of fastball, slider and changeup is going to let him get big leaguers out. His fastball sits at 92 and can touch 95 while the breaking pitches are each slightly below average (though having both means neither needs to be developed that well). He doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, but he’s a guy who could man the 6th or 7th inning and get both lefties and righties out, and that makes him a valuable guy to have stashed away in Nashville.

28. Frankie De La Cruz, RHP, AAA

Eulogio De La Cruz, who goes by Frankie (…), is not a typical prospect at all. He spent all of 2010 in Japan, where he re-worked his mechanics in an attempt to revitalize his major league career. At 27, the clock is ticking, and at 5’10” he doesn’t have anywhere close to ideal size for a major league player. He does have 1 big thing going for him – velocity. The man averages 94 mph on the fastball and can raise it even higher in short stints, meaning he doesn’t need much else to get big leaguers out. He’s been converted to a starter for Nashville this season, and while his ultimate major league destination is the bullpen, a big fastball, a decent breaking ball and new mechanics might make him useful.

29. Eric Arnett, RHP, A

Here he is, fellas. Arnett, the former 1st round pick out of Indiana, has seen just about everything humanly possible go wrong in his minor league career. Now 23 and assigned to Helena, it’s probably the end of the road if he doesn’t figure it out. There are, however, some bright spots. The first is that Arnett has always out-pitched his absurd ERA’s, and the second is that during the down-time before rookie ball got started, he made some progress. Firstly, the velocity that made him a star at Indiana and subsequently disappeared might be back – Arnett was clocked as high as 93 mph before the Helena season began. That’s roughly a 4 mph improvement over his 2010 marks when he struggled in low A. Second, Arnett worked on a split-finger fastball and changeup in addition to his slider. He’s put on some weight through conditioning and battled through a rotator cuff tear to the point where he is now 100%. Temper your expectations, as at this point anything we might get from the guy is a bonus, but he still has all the tools of a top of the rotation guy. But maybe, just maybe, he has turned the corner.

30. Osmel Perez, RHP, DSL

Osmel Perez is kind of the darling of our DSL team (which, by the way, is kicking – and taking names this season after a terrible year last year). He has a ton of things going for him – he’s 6’4”, has touched 94 on his fastball, has good feel for a changeup and has a developing slider at only 17 years old age. The downside is that he’s been absolutely torched during a small sample of DSL play. Obviously he’s so far down in the system that we really can’t even be sure what we have, but there is clearly upside here and I’d like to think this will be Osmel’s last year before heading stateside.

31. Amaury Rivas, RHP, AAA

Rivas is a 25 year old SP who has just kind of plodded along through the minor league system advancing level by level. He never dominated anyone, and his stuff (a high 80’s to low 90’s fastball, a changeup that is fringe average and a below average slider) didn’t ever blow anyone away. This year, in AAA, the strikeout ability has all but gone away, as Rivas is striking out just 5.8 per 9 while walking 4.8 per 9. That’s a bad combination, and even though he’s been good at preventing home runs, it’s simply impossible to be successful with those peripherals. If Rivas can rediscover his command and get the walk rate down into the low 3’s or high 2’s, he could be a long reliever or (dear god I hope not) a spot starter for the Crew, but his stuff just isn’t good enough to get upper level hitters out. He’s looking more and more like a guy who will be spending a good deal of time in Nashville.

32. Milton Gomez, RHP, DSL

Gomez was a big name signing for the Brewers out of Santiago in the Dominican Republic. At just 16 years old, he was 6’2” with a fastball that touched 92 and a nice feel for a curveball, prompting the Brewers to give him a hefty $350k check. Thus far in the DSL, he’s been about as good as humanly possible, with an ERA of 1.06 in 17 IP with healthy strikeout and walk rates of 9.53 and 2.65, respectively. We don’t really have more information on him than that, but the bonus, the stuff and the early success is certainly exciting.

33. Ruben Ozuna, OF, DSL/AZL

Ruben Ozuna, or Ruben Sanchez depending on which one of his ID’s you pick up (though they each say the same age) is a 6’2”, 180 pound CF who has had a great deal of success in the DSL and now is in the Arizona League. At 19, he’s not exactly super young for the level, but Bruce Seid, the Brewers scouting director, thinks he’s an “exciting player” who will stick at CF, has the tools to hit for a little power and steal some bases, and has already displayed an excellent eye at the plate (more BB than K in the DSL last year).

34. Yadiel Rivera, SS, Helena

Rivera, a later pick who made his debut with the Brewers rookie affiliate in 2010 before being promoted way too aggressively and seeing A ball this season, is super, super raw. At 6’2” he’s a little big for a SS, but supposedly he has a chance at sticking (though he won’t win gold gloves any time soon). His bat offers hope to hit for average and power, and he can also probably be a double digit stolen base guy. The problem is that we’ve yet to see the slightest bit of success on the Field, and while Rivera is still young, he’s going to need to show that he can handle Helena pretty soon to cement his status as a legitimate SS prospect.

35. Tommy Toledo, RHP, Florida (Unsigned)

Toledo was a 3rd round pick out of high school who had an electric arm, but then opted to go to Florida instead. At 6’3”, he boasted the necessary size, and although he is still skinny as a rail (165 pounds), he has some serious giddyup to his fastball, which sits in the mid-90’s. His college career was derailed by Tommy John surgery, and then a deep Florida staff aided by some great recruiting classes found Toledo the odd man out and relegated to the bullpen. It remains to be seen whether the Brewers want to keep him in relief or build him up as a starter, but as a reliever he could be an 8th inning guy and arrive relatively quickly. As a starter, it’s too tough to know right now.

36. Orlando Arcia, SS, DSL

We honestly don’t know anything about Arcia (props to you, DSL reporters) other than he’s a 16 year old SS who is absolutely hitting the hell out of the baseball. He’s listed at 6’0”, 165 pounds so if he grows too much he might end up being a 3B or 2B down the line, but quite frankly, with his current DSL line it doesn’t matter. He’s hitting .324/.434/.500 with 3 HRs, 4 SBs and more than twice as many walks as strikeouts in 20 games. While those power numbers might not make you jump up and down, the DSL is the most pitching friendly league in the world. Through their first 20 games, the Brewers DSL team (which is on fire, by the way) has 9 home runs. Yep, Arcia has 33% of the teams HR production. Beyond that, we just don’t know, but he got the job opening day, is killing the ball at 16, and just appears too dominant for the league. Maybe we have something here!

37. Max Walla, OF, Helena

Max Walla is the kind of prospect who is just…irritating. He is loaded with tools, as the 2nd round OF has tremendous bat speed, projects for good power, has a nice arm, and can play a good RF. But he just hasn’t done anything in his professional career so far. His wOBA last year was a paltry .329 and aided by a .405 BABIP, and while he’s only 20 he needs to show some on-field success to validate his status as a high pick. It’s getting doubtful Walla has a successful career, but, as the case is with all of these toolsy guys, you can’t write them off.

38. Cody Hawn, 1B, A

Hawn was the Brewers’ 6th round draft pick out of Tennessee in 2010 after being drafted by the Crew in the later rounds in 2007. He absolutely crushed Helena pitching in his 2010 debut, putting up a triple slash line of .308/.407/.542. This year in A ball, the walks are about the same, the strikeouts are down and the power has completely vanished. His current line of .271/.361/.376 is really only different than his Helena line because of BABIP and slugging. Hawn was never a guy with great upside, and his mediocre 1B defense means he better tattoo the baseball to make the majors. I didn’t really see it happening when he was drafted, and the lack of power attests to that. He can still rebound, but it will take some impressive development on his part.

39. Eric Farris, 2B, AAA

Farris is kind of like an older Scooter Gennett except we know the upside on Scooter isn’t there: he’s small, he can’t play anywhere in the infield except 2B, he doesn’t hit for much power, he doesn’t walk much, he doesn’t strikeout much, and you’re wondering if he’s an organizational guy down the road. Playing at AAA this year, Farris’ .267/.323/.370 line and Rickie Weeks’ presence pretty much means we won’t be seeing him in Milwaukee as anything other than a defensive replacement. Unfortunately, it isn’t his range but his arm that keeps him from playing SS, so it’s likely that he wouldn’t have multi-positional ability in the big leagues like a Craig Counsell does. This kind of leaves Farris in limbo unless he can start hitting better, but it’s possible the Brewers like his defense somewhere else in which case he would represent a nice utility guy.

40. Stosh Wawrzasek, RHP, A

Apart from having the greatest name ever, Wawrzasek has managed to revitalize his career in the bullpen for the Timber Rattlers after essentially being an afterthought in the Brewers organization. A 16th round pick who made his debut as a 17 year old, Stosh was crushed in rookie ball for 3 years as a starter before finally accepting the demotion to start his full season career. What has followed is an impressive line of 26.1 IP in 20 games, a 2.39 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and 6.2 BB/9. Obviously the command is a problem, but his career rates lead me to believe it’s more of an fluke than anything. His ability to miss bats now makes him a legitimate prospect who might provide the Brewers some late inning ability.

41. Cameron Garfield, C, A

Garfield, a former 2nd round pick in 2009, is a true defensive catcher with all the tools to succeed at the big league level. His arm and blocking ability are good and he showed promise as a signal caller. What has not developed, however, is the bat. Last year, we gave Garfield a free pass because he was 19 years old in the Midwest League as a catcher, so success wasn’t really expected. This year he’s been hurt for almost the entire season (and we don’t know what the injury is), so his development has fallen back by a year. Until he gets healthy and proves he can hit MWL pitching, he’s going to just be a guy to keep an eye on.

42. Austin Ross, RHP, A+

Ross was a mid-round draft pick out of LSU who dominated rookie ball last year and low A this year before finally earning a promotion to the FSL. While the numbers look great so far, Ross’ fastball, which sits 88-91, is going to limit him from ever having a substantial impact on the parent club. His slider and changeup are nice and he can use them well, but hitters at higher levels will likely give him fits as neither on is a true out-pitch. If Ross can add a little velocity ala Nick Bucci, he would rocket up this list, as he has a nice feel for pitching and can use three pitches effectively, but unless that happens he’s an organizational guy or long reliever.

43. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, A

Our second round pick last year, Nelson was a 6’6” RHP who was praised for decent velocity on a sinking fastball, but drew a comparison to Jeff Suppan. So far, he’s been decidedly mediocre in the Midwest League, with a K rate of 6.0, a BB rate of 4.9 and an ERA north of 5.09. While we typically like seeing prospects fulfill their MLB comparisons, Nelson has disappointed Brewer fans by largely living up to his. He’s quickly fading off of prospect relevance, and needs to develop power secondary stuff to start missing bats while simultaneously improving his command to restore his status as a legitimate back-end rotation starter.

44. Matt Miller, RHP, A/Helena

Our 5th round pick last year, Miller started off hot in Helena before falling off down the stretch with an ERA of 4.06 and a K/BB of 1.89. This year in the Midwest League, the wheels have fallen off the bus. His K rate is 5.2 and his BB rate is 5.4, and the only thing saving him from being completely outmatched is a low BABIP. Miller didn’t even make the Michigan rotation as a junior, and the Brewers took him on the 5th round mostly based on his nice velocity and 6’6” frame.

45. Dustin Houle, C, Unknown Assignment

Houle is yet another super young Canadian, as he won’t turn 18 until November and likely won’t see professional games until next year in rookie ball. Our 8th round pick, he has a strong arm, soft hands, and projects to be a good defensive catcher given time to develop. He has a nice, compact swing that should facilitate good average and gap power. He’s 6’1” and 185 pounds, so he’s got a nice build for the catching position and could be a nice player down the road.

46. Mallex Smith, CF, Florida High School (Unsigned)

Smith was the Brewers 13th round pick out of High School. We don’t know that much about him, but he’s a true CF based on his plus plus speed and demonstrated both polish and bat speed at show camps. At only 5’9”, he’s a smurf, but if he can get on base effectively, he won’t need that much pop to be effective since he should play plus to plus plus defense at center.

47. Eliezer Montano, LHP, DSL

Montano makes this list for exactly 2 reasons. The first is that he’s 6’7” as a 19 year old, and the second is that he reportedly has good velocity. His ERA thus far in the DSL is encouraging (2.39), his strikeouts improved from last year and his walks decreased from last season, so maybe he’s learning to figure it out. Until we have more information, it’s tough to know but man. 6’7”. Left handed. Oh, and as for potential when his frame fills out, Montano is listed at 170 pounds.

48. Joel Dicent, RHP, DSL

Dicent is another one of these crazy upside, young DSL guys that we seem to have found everywhere. He’s 6”4”, 185 pounds and while 19 years old doesn’t make him young for the level, he’s touched 95 mph on his fastball and posted a shiny ERA in 23 IP so far this season. He’s successfully cut his walk rate from 8.4 per 9 in 2010 to 3.5 per 9 in 2011, and his 2.70 ERA means he might be seeing rookie ball soon. We don’t know anything about his secondary stuff, but he made the list based solely on the upside of his frame and velocity.

49. Andrew Cain, OF, UNC-Wilmington (Unsigned)

Cain is a 6’6”, 220 pound corner OF that was taken in the 12th round by the Brewers. As you’d expect, his size gives him crazy good power with 10 home runs and 15 doubles in 215 XBHs and pretty impressive shows in batting practice. Baseball America was critical of his slow bat speed (which is weird, given the power) and his ability to recognize offspeed stuff. We’ll see if the Brewers are able to develop him into a player who can make contact and draw walks effectively, but the power tool is intriguing.

Not Ranked Because of Health. Mark Rogers, RHP, AAA/A+/AZL

What a year for Mark Rogers – after everything went right in 2010, everything has gone wrong in 2011. In Spring Training he was hurt after losing feeling in his arms, then tried to come back and had the same injury. All the while he was totally unable to control where he was throwing the baseball, posting ERAs and BB/9 rates north of 13 in Nashville. The Brewers demoted him to Brevard County, where he’s continued to struggle. With two major shoulder surgeries in the past and a previous ranking of number 1, I honestly had no idea where to put him. I could see ranking him as low as the high teens and as high as, I don’t know, 7? While the top of the rotation fastball is tempting, at this point Rogers is likely headed for the bullpen, where his upper 90’s heat would make him an immediate high-leverage innings option. His curveball and changeup each flash very good, with the curveball being a wipeout offering when on. However, he just simply doesn’t have the requisite health or control to be a major league starter at this point. The best we can hope for now is that Mark gets healthy again and learns to limit his pitches by throwing out of the bullpen. While that’s probably a disappointing dream for the former 5th overall pick, Doug Melvin and Co. need to do everything in their power to protect his arm.

Not Ranked Because I Have No Idea Who He Is. Malcolm Dowell, CF, AZL

The Brewers 9th round pick who signed right away for $100 grand, Dowell is a mystery. No one has any idea who Dowell is - BA, PerfectGame, no one has a scouting report on this guy. Thus far, we know he is a raw athlete who can play CF and had a football career in college if he wanted. That means he’s probably fairly strong and could be a D’Vontrey Richardson type athlete, but until we know exactly why the Brewers took him so highly, we are just going to have to wait and see where to rank him.

And That · July 20, 2011

I thought it's a different take on the Power 50, since the 50 is more "production based" whereas my list is much more based on ceiling and the search for impact players.

Is the Power 50 production based? We're still high on Rivas, Rogers, Nelson, Gennett, Kentrail Davis, et al. It certainly helps if you're producing, but we take tools and ceiling into account just as much as, or more than, stats.

Good writing, by the way. I enjoyed reading it.

TheCrew07 · July 20, 2011

Certainly to be a top prospect one has to be somewhat productive, however since I only have 3 players in my 10 that I put there based production (Davis, Green, and Gindl) I would think it's fair to say that most people on the MiLB forum take upside over production. The discussion about Austin Ross was a good example.

Personally I think Jungmann tops out as a 3 unless he does some major work, I wouldn't put him in the top 10 simply because the system stinks and he was a #1 pick. On the other hand I really like Lopez' upside and he would have been in the top 10 had he signed bumping Manzanillo out. Upside is also why I have Scarpetta lower than most, I just didn't see much upside in him when I saw him pitch as his body was filled out and he was topping out at 91, also his walk rate is still a huge concern for me.

Anyone younger than 18 who's raking regardless of level has huge upside and that's mostly why I put Arcia where I did.

ramssuperbowl99 · July 20, 2011

I thought it's a different take on the Power 50, since the 50 is more "production based" whereas my list is much more based on ceiling and the search for impact players.
Is the Power 50 production based? We're still high on Rivas, Rogers, Nelson, Gennett, Kentrail Davis, et al. It certainly helps if you're producing, but we take tools and ceiling into account just as much as, or more than, stats.

Good writing, by the way. I enjoyed reading it.

Thanks - I appreciate it.

Rivas has virtually no tools, at least as I see him. A fringe fastball and a below average breaking ball basically is the kind of guy who I don't think should ever see the majors. His ranking was one of the reasons I mentioned how production-based the Power 50 is.

I guess you could see by my rankings of guys like Komatsu that I really, really take ceiling and tools into account.

By the way, an up to the second top 10:

1. Wily Peralta - 98!

2. Tyler Thornburg

3. Cody Scarpetta

4. Mat Gamel

5. Taylor Green

6. Hunter Morris

7. D'Vontrey Richardson

8. Drew Gagnon

9. Kyle Heckathorn

10. Kentrail Davis

CheezWizHed · July 21, 2011

I'll admit to being a little production biased, for two main reasons:

1) Draft reports seem to be sketchy at best (ramssuperbowl99's write up on Heckathorn summarizes that well). So I prefer to wait at least a year in the Brewer's system before getting a handle on a player's ceiling. Higher round picks do get more credibility, but Arnett proves that it isn't fool-proof either (granted some guys here pegged him early as a questionable pick)

2) Such a high number of players fail to succeed at or get past AA, that I tend to give a lot of credit to anyone at AAA or doing well at AA. So some lower ceiling guys (like Fiers and Rivas) get a bit more credit, so it balances with higher ranked guys at lower levels (unless someone is exceptional - like Thornburg - but even his accent is due mostly to his production).

Thus, I tend to rank based on probability of impact to the MLB level, thus trying to balance production and potential.

Newer guys like Arcia, Perez, Ramirez, Rivera are all on my radar and could rise quickly, but I'd like to see them a bit more to ensure they aren't on simple "hot-streaks".

ramssuperbowl99, how does Khris Davis not make your top50? Sure he is an older guy at A+, but a 7th round pick with perhaps the best power in the system (BK might argue that). He has to be there somewhere... Otherwise, a good write-up.

Also, stop by LambeauLeap.net some time and we can straighten you out. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

CheeseheadInIllinois · July 21, 2011

I'll take a crack at this. It sure became a lot of coin flips after the top four, though.

1. Wily Peralta: Has been putting up some stellar numbers since that disastrous May start. The fact that he's doing it at AA gives him a slight edge over Thornburg.

2. Tyler Thornburg: Has done nothing but impress. I wonder if the Brewers will follow through on the comment about him potentially seeing AA this year.

3. Taylor Green: It's been nice seeing a guy who was a top-10 prospect for the Brewers back when that meant something regaining his form. Now granted this might be a one-year fluke, but given the almost league-wide struggles for 3rd basemen this season, if he can even post a .270/.350/.450 line while playing solid defense, that would make him above average. I could see Green doing that.

4. Khris Davis: Best combo power/on-base skills in the organization this year. Hopefully he soon gets that deserved promotion.

5. Cody Scarpetta: This is where things start to get dicier. Scarpetta seems to have the talent, but he still needs to find the consistency.

6. Nic Bucci: He was able to dominate for stretches last year, too, but the blowups (which based on the couple of times I saw him when Wisconsin was in town seemed to be frustration-based) that hurt his stats for the Rattlers seem to be becoming fewer and farther between this year.

7. Caleb Gindl: As other have said, the upside might not be star-caliber, but the guy just hits. And for his size he has got some pop.

8. Yadiel Rivera: Is this an overreaction to a hot streak? Probably. Is his strikeout rate, while improving, still a bit troubling? You bet. But a shortstop with solid defensive tools who has also showcased some pop? If it comes together for him, the value of that is high enough to vault him into the top 10. I'd have Arcia up here too if I could find a few scouting reports on him that included the words "likely to stick at shortstop."

9. Logan Schaefer: Like the defense, like the average and the walk rate has become passable. Where are the extra-base hits he was racking up in Brevard, though?

10. Kyle Heckathorn: Has continued a solid climb up the organizational ladder, but for a No. 10 guy on this list has been a bit underwhelming. I'd probably toss all three of the top draft picks in ahead of him once they sign.

Next 10: Arcia, Richardson, Manzanillo, Fiers, Rogers, Gennett, Ozuna, Gagnon, Halton, Komatsu.

ramssuperbowl99 · July 21, 2011

I'll admit to being a little production biased, for two main reasons:

1) Draft reports seem to be sketchy at best (ramssuperbowl99's write up on Heckathorn summarizes that well). So I prefer to wait at least a year in the Brewer's system before getting a handle on a player's ceiling. Higher round picks do get more credibility, but Arnett proves that it isn't fool-proof either (granted some guys here pegged him early as a questionable pick)

2) Such a high number of players fail to succeed at or get past AA, that I tend to give a lot of credit to anyone at AAA or doing well at AA. So some lower ceiling guys (like Fiers and Rivas) get a bit more credit, so it balances with higher ranked guys at lower levels (unless someone is exceptional - like Thornburg - but even his accent is due mostly to his production).

Thus, I tend to rank based on probability of impact to the MLB level, thus trying to balance production and potential.

Newer guys like Arcia, Perez, Ramirez, Rivera are all on my radar and could rise quickly, but I'd like to see them a bit more to ensure they aren't on simple "hot-streaks".

ramssuperbowl99, how does Khris Davis not make your top50? Sure he is an older guy at A+, but a 7th round pick with perhaps the best power in the system (BK might argue that). He has to be there somewhere... Otherwise, a good write-up.

Also, stop by LambeauLeap.net some time and we can straighten you out. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I don't think Davis is an impact player in the MLB. I mean, he might prove me wrong, and I realize that the MLB is made up of more than 1st and 2nd round picks, but he's got very few tools. First, his arm and his speed are each so bad that they limit him to left field (which is filled) and first base. If he's going to play either of those positions, he's going to have to really, really hit. I just don't see it happening, and the fact that he's not on pace to make the MLB until he's 25 or 26 just illustrates that the Brewers either don't have room for him or don't see him as a part of their plans. If I wrote it again, I might stick him somewhere around the Austin Ross type player area, but he's not an impact prospect.

Also, Hunter Morris has the best power in the system. (Which is a little sad)

As for your production based claims:

1. Draft reports are typically accurate, and even though draft picks see their value increase and decrease based on production, they are the guys with the tools to succeed in the big leagues. I generally divide up prospects into guys with enough 45+ or 50+ tools to make it in the big leagues and the guys who are going to have to prove it every step of the way. The guys in the first group are far more likely to make it. I'd argue that Heckathorn has seen velocity drop due to mechanical changes and pitching more often, which is really quite common.

2. Having success in AA and AAA is nice, but in reality, if you aren't toolsy enough to succeed in the big leagues, it's worthless. Rivas could put up an ERA of 1.5, but without the ability to miss bats, MLB hitters are going to eat him alive. Likewise, Zack Braddock could put up an ERA in the mid 5's, but that fastball/slider combination is good enough to get guys out in the 8th or 9th. I'd take the latter every time, results there or not. Case and point is Martin Perez - put up an ERA north of 5 in AA last year as a LHP for the Rangers. He didn't really see his prospect stock drop at all from the scouting services because the stuff is so good. This year he comes back and is much more dominant.

And sample size is always and issue (BABIP, ERA-FIP or xFIP, etc. etc.) but if you're getting reports of a guy really hitting the ball, walking a bunch in reference to his strikeouts, you can see evidence of being comfortable at the level. Same goes for pitchers with K/BB and the ability to miss bats or generate grounders.

By the way, the Packers check in as my 2nd favorite team, but my family had season tickets in St. Louis during the 90's and were total diehards. No complete conversion for me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

CheezWizHed · July 21, 2011

1. Draft reports are typically accurate,

Poor choice of words on my part. I meant more along the lines that carrying over those scouted tools (especially FB speed) into the minors tends to be a difficult task. Heckathorn's a good example of that.

2. Having success in AA and AAA is nice, but in reality, if you aren't toolsy enough to succeed in the big leagues

Tools aren't the only way someone succeeds in the majors. It sure helps, but there are plenty of examples of successful non-toolsy guys and plenty of toolsy failures. Plus at some point, you have to put up good numbers. Braddock wouldn't have gotten a chance at the MLB level if he continually put up a mid-5 ERA in the minors. At some point potential must become production.

Also, I was comparing toolsy low-level players vs. lower-tool upper level. Comparing two guys on the same level adds more wrinkles.

I don't think Davis is an impact player in the MLB.

That's fair. Its a mixed bag on the forum (made obvious by this thread). But to leave him off a list of 50, especially with our system is grossly underrating him.

If he's going to play either of those positions, he's going to have to really, really hit.

Any reason to think that way? He has done nothing but hit since he arrived. Plus, his prospect status shouldn't rest on who is ahead of him. His defense is a sure limitation, but that should make him the ideal Brewer prospect! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

CheezWizHed · July 21, 2011

I'll also add that after being drafted, scouting reports on these players are pretty few and far between. Add in not seeing them very often in person and it forces more of a production based view.

And its interesting that Khris Davis is only one year older than Hunter Morris (or 10 months if you want to be specific), and has shown more power and more plate discipline than Morris at A and A+ (being at both places at the same time). And can play LF, whereas Morris is limited to 1B (realistically).

Now perhaps Morris has better power potential, but you at least have to have them in the same ballpark as players.

nate82 · July 21, 2011

My top 10:

1. Thornburg: Obviously one of the better pitchers in the Brewers system and really the only big prospect the Brewers have at this time. Possible top 100 prospect but will be more than likely just miss getting on the top 100.

2. Scarpetta: While not completely dominating his ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 type pitcher but will probably be more of a #5 type pitcher if he can not spot accurately.

3. Gennett: Small, could be a Pedroia like player or he could be just another Counsell like player.

4. Komatsu: Again under sized but I love his bat if he can't play CF he is really limited as he doesn't have all that much power probably a 4th or 5th OF if he can not play CF.

5. Schafer: The Brewers really love Schafer but injuries are becoming a concern here defense in CF is the only plus he has. He needs to draw more walks to be an everyday player but his defense will allow him to be a starter in CF Brady Clark type of a player but with better defense.

6. Green: Injuries in the past have derailed him but he is finally coming around. If it wasn't for the injuries he would be the #2 or #1 prospect and would be in the top 75 in terms of a prospect around the league. Reminds me of Jeff Cirillo.

7. Gindl: Another small player who reminds me of a younger Matt Stairs. Matt Stairs first year in AAA at age 24 .267/.351/.426 and Gindl's first year at AAA at age 22 .290/.364/.473. While Stairs is older Gindl is putting up a similar line at a younger age.

8. Khris Davis: Can the Brewers please challenge him already? If the Brewers would move him up a little bit faster I would be more confident in his status as a prospect.

9. Richardson: Tools, Tools, Tools, Tools, and oh yeah more Tools. Richardson has to be the most toolsy player in the Brewers system. If he ever gets it together he will be a great player maybe not an All-Star caliber player but rather close to that caliber of a player.

10. Osmel Perez: Only 17 years old and probably the best international talent the Brewers have had in a long time.

Gamel would be #1 but he is not even eligible to be a rookie so he is not a prospect anymore. Others that I like are Nelson, Garfield, Hall, and Rogers all of whom are rather close to the top 10 but just not there yet or have had injury concerns or are under performing.

ramssuperbowl99 · July 21, 2011

I'll also add that after being drafted, scouting reports on these players are pretty few and far between. Add in not seeing them very often in person and it forces more of a production based view.

And its interesting that Khris Davis is only one year older than Hunter Morris (or 10 months if you want to be specific), and has shown more power and more plate discipline than Morris at A and A+ (being at both places at the same time). And can play LF, whereas Morris is limited to 1B (realistically).

Now perhaps Morris has better power potential, but you at least have to have them in the same ballpark as players.

Kevin Goldstein basically summed it up when he said that Davis needs to be getting looks but is also an organizational guy.

Morris has better tools - a better bat, better power, a better frame, and I'd say he's a better athlete. Not sure why they are even close to each other at all.

mrpackersfan1 · July 21, 2011

My top 10:
1. Thornburg: Obviously one of the better pitchers in the Brewers system and really the only big prospect the Brewers have at this time. Possible top 100 prospect but will be more than likely just miss getting on the top 100.
2. Scarpetta: While not completely dominating his ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 type pitcher but will probably be more of a #5 type pitcher if he can not spot accurately.
3. Gennett: Small, could be a Pedroia like player or he could be just another Counsell like player.
4. Komatsu: Again under sized but I love his bat if he can't play CF he is really limited as he doesn't have all that much power probably a 4th or 5th OF if he can not play CF.
5. Schafer: The Brewers really love Schafer but injuries are becoming a concern here defense in CF is the only plus he has. He needs to draw more walks to be an everyday player but his defense will allow him to be a starter in CF Brady Clark type of a player but with better defense.
6. Green: Injuries in the past have derailed him but he is finally coming around. If it wasn't for the injuries he would be the #2 or #1 prospect and would be in the top 75 in terms of a prospect around the league. Reminds me of Jeff Cirillo.
7. Gindl: Another small player who reminds me of a younger Matt Stairs. Matt Stairs first year in AAA at age 24 .267/.351/.426 and Gindl's first year at AAA at age 22 .290/.364/.473. While Stairs is older Gindl is putting up a similar line at a younger age.
8. Khris Davis: Can the Brewers please challenge him already? If the Brewers would move him up a little bit faster I would be more confident in his status as a prospect.
9. Richardson: Tools, Tools, Tools, Tools, and oh yeah more Tools. Richardson has to be the most toolsy player in the Brewers system. If he ever gets it together he will be a great player maybe not an All-Star caliber player but rather close to that caliber of a player.
10. Osmel Perez: Only 17 years old and probably the best international talent the Brewers have had in a long time.
Gamel would be #1 but he is not even eligible to be a rookie so he is not a prospect anymore. Others that I like are Nelson, Garfield, Hall, and Rogers all of whom are rather close to the top 10 but just not there yet or have had injury concerns or are under performing.

Umm... Where's Peralta?

And That · July 21, 2011

Morris has better tools - a better bat, better power, a better frame, and I'd say he's a better athlete. Not sure why they are even close to each other at all.

I'd say the only place Morris has Davis legitimately beat is in the power department, but that more raw power than game power. Davis gets the best out of his power due to his patience - he simply has a better approach at the plate - while Morris is so aggressive that his game power may never meet is raw power potential.

Neither of them have a truly dominant power tool. Morris gets a lot of his power from ripping at the ball, while Davis gets his power from hitting mistakes well. Neither have premium bat speed.

I'm not big on frame. Lots of tall guys suck, and lots of short guys don't. Morris is 3-4 inches taller, but he's also had weight problems.

Morris, IMO, certainly has more upside due to his power, but Davis is more likely to reach his upside, and I believe that upside is good enough to be at least a part-timer at the MLB level. They're pretty close overall. I'll take the guy with 35 more walks this year to break the tie.

battlekow · July 21, 2011

One thing about Khris Davis: We can talk about him being blocked in left field by Ryan Braun, but that shouldn't affect his ranking at all, at least in my mind.

ramssuperbowl99 · July 21, 2011

Morris has better tools - a better bat, better power, a better frame, and I'd say he's a better athlete. Not sure why they are even close to each other at all.
I'd say the only place Morris has Davis legitimately beat is in the power department, but that more raw power than game power. Davis gets the best out of his power due to his patience - he simply has a better approach at the plate - while Morris is so aggressive that his game power may never meet is raw power potential.

Neither of them have a truly dominant power tool. Morris gets a lot of his power from ripping at the ball, while Davis gets his power from hitting mistakes well. Neither have premium bat speed.

I'm not big on frame. Lots of tall guys suck, and lots of short guys don't. Morris is 3-4 inches taller, but he's also had weight problems.

Morris, IMO, certainly has more upside due to his power, but Davis is more likely to reach his upside, and I believe that upside is good enough to be at least a part-timer at the MLB level. They're pretty close overall. I'll take the guy with 35 more walks this year to break the tie.

I'd feel much more comfortable projecting Morris' discipline (and therefore his in game power) to improve than projecting Davis' overall skillset to improve.

And not sure why you "aren't big on frame". Taller baseball players typically have more power - sure there are the Jose Bautista's of the world, but generally being taller than 6'0" is a good thing.

Further, not sure why you don't think Morris has a better hit tool. Or a better arm (though it's not the most pivotal thing from a 1B).

Brewers Top 10 Prospects -- Latest: Sickels Re-Visists His Pre-Season Top 20

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