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Hart @ leadoff and Weeks batting 5th. Like it or don't like it?


Dnye23
We've only seen 2 days of it and who knows if Roenicke will stick with it for a long period of time. I hope it sticks because this seems like a good move. Weeks gives good protection for Braun and Fielder, and finally has better opportunities to drive in runs. I don't necessarily know why Corey doesn't like hitting 5th, but I read he's more comfortable in leadoff or 2nd. This was good timing to make this move too, right after the all-star break. Plus, we needed something to change in order to take one from the Rockies. I'm very happy we got a split out there, where we historically struggle in Mile High.

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ZiPS Rest-Of-Season Projections:

 

Weeks: .258/.350/.455

Hart: .272/.332/.481

 

Hart has more power but get's on base less often. In terms of maximizing runs scored per game, this is a bad move. I understand moving Hart out of the 5 hole (he has said he doesn't like hitting there) but this just doesn't make much sense to me. Weeks is the third best hitter on the team, moving him down 4 spots takes about 70 PA away from him over the course of a year.

 

Of course, I usually don't mind when teams want to walk Fielder to get to a lesser hitter anyway, as it results in more runs scored overall. It does suck late in games, when the Brewers just need one run, though.

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With Braun out, I'd rather see Weeks-Morgan-Hart-Fielder if Corey doesn't like the 5-hole. Or flip Morgan & Weeks in that grouping.

 

I don't like moving a good OBP out of the leadoff spot to put an inferior one there, but Corey's still a good hitter so I can't get too worked up about it. As far as bad things I can imagine RRR doing, this isn't high up on the list. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

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In a normal context, I wouldn't like it, since I'd want to maximize OBP at the top of the lineup, and Weeks is simply more productive than Hart in that respect, and the Brewers offense should have enough protection for Fielder that the change isn't necessary.

 

With Braun day-to-day, and McGehee sporting a sub-.600 OPS, I'm okay with it. By the numbers, Hart has actually done a much better job drawing walks than I ever would have given him credit for (he's over the 1 bb : 10 AB threshold that's my normal rule of thumb for plate discipline), such that the on-base difference has been minimal. If Hart says he's not comfortable in the #5 hole in the lineup (and his 3-year splits back that up), it does explain why Casey was allowed to flounder in that spot for so long this year. (It doesn't explain LuCroy batting 8th....but that's a different thread.) Rickie has never been a perfect fit for the leadoff spot, since he has above-average power to go with his on-base skills. If it means that both he and Prince get more meaningful ABs with RISP, and get pitched to in those situations....it should work.

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I am fine with it; its only two games but Weeks has done pretty well in the 5 hole. In two games he basically matched the power production of McGehee & Hart for about the last month.

 

Weeks will probably have to move down in the order next year anyways; might as well get him used to be in a "Run Producing" spot.

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It's worth noting that Corey has posted quite a bit more OBP this year, and he has seemed to find a balance between swinging all the time and the year he left the bat on his shoulder too much. Given that the OBP gap expectation between the two narrows in my mind. Add in his apparent lack of comfort and it's reasonable.
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I might go Morgan/Braun/Fielder/Weeks/Hart. Still puts Hart in the 5 hole, but has Weeks after Fielder. If Hart is allergic to batting fifth, I might go Morgan/Hart as well. I know RR views it as have that scrappy guy 2nd so he can bunt, but only RR would bunt in the first inning.

 

When Braun is out, I like the idea of having either Weeks or Fielder bat 3rd.

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I agree if a change is necessary, then the sensible order puts Morgan 1st, Hart 2nd. If Braun is out I'd rather see Rickie 3rd and Kotsay 5th.

 

In the end it probably doesn't matter all that much, as long as your 5 best hitters are in the 5 top spots.

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I'd like the lineup much better with Nyjer leading off, Rickie hitting #2 and Hart #5, but getting Rickie used to a run producing spot this season is necessary given that he will likely be the #3 or #4 hitter next season. With Braun out, I think I'd prefer a Nyjer-Hart-Rickie-Prince order. When Braun returns, ideally I'd like Rickie #2 and Corey #5, but I'd settle for Corey #2 and Rickie #5.

 

I don't understand why we don't Nyjer leadoff. Anybody have a theory on this? Seems to be the best spot for him.

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I agree that Morgan should be batting 1st, but I like this as an alternative. Weeks was going to have to move out of the leadoff spot and some point, and with Braun gone and the team scuffling a bit in the first couple games of the COL series, this was a great time to try it.
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I like it. I think mentally Hart will be better starting a rally than trying to capitalize on one. He's struck out a lot of times with 2 outs and men on. Maybe I would bat Nyjer first, but probably not mostly because he can bunt.
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I'd rather they put Morgan at leadoff and use Hart in the 2 hole. I like the idea of having the power bat follow the singles hitter if given a choice.
This is how I feel, too. I don't particularily like Hart leading off. I do like Weeks in the 5 spot, and I think he should remain there the rest of the way. I could see Weeks batting cleanup next season
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I guess if the argument from Hart is that he'll be better at getting on base if he's leading off, then I see no harm in giving it a try. Statistically, it doesn't seem to make much sense, but I'm not against switching things up just for the sake of switching it up. If Rickie continues to hit well at #5 then it just makes him that much cooler than Soriano. I would rather have Rickie hitting 2nd so he continues to get more PAs, but I'm not really crazy opposed to what RR is doing right now.

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