Should the Brewers be a seller instead?

[monty57]

So you think by trading Fielder, who we will lose anyway, Axford, who while good is replaceable by K-Rod, Greinke who has an ERA over 5 and Marcum that we will go back to laughingstock status?

 

I think a first-place (or near first place) team that puts itself up for a fire sale will be laughed at by everyone in and around baseball... Everyone that is except for the suckers that have been buying tickets. They'll simply stop buying tickets to games, which will take our $90-ish million payroll down to around a $60-70-ish million payroll.

 

Talk to people off this site. People who don't live, sleep, eat and breathe Brewers baseball. It's hard to convince long-time fans that we're not the "same old Brewers." These fans were lied to (or at least felt they were lied to) for years by the Selig regime. Trading Fielder, Axford, Greinke and Marcum right now would send fans screaming for the door, and rightfully so. I don't know if you've ever run a business, but even if "selling" now was a good baseball move, it is certainly a bad business move, as Mark A would immediately lose all of the goodwill he's worked so hard for since taking over the helm. Posters here may scoff at the "casual fan," but their money is as green as ours, and they outnumber us by a long-shot. Without them, we cannot have a successful franchise. Many of these fans can't name our own prospects, so trading a potential league MVP in the middle of a pennant race for a group of prospects wouldn't go over well. Maybe, just maybe, if all the prospects you would get by trading Fielder, Axford, Greinke and Marcum pan out, and we find ourselves in a pennant race again in 3 or 4 years, some of these fans might think about coming back out to a game. Until then, it'd be really easy to get good seats to a game, and Attansio's new "demand-based pricing" would blow up in his face.

[Ennder]

If the Brewers should be sellers every year it isn't very likely they go to the World Series they might as well move the team. They are never going to field a team as good as the powers in the AL East, it just isn't going to happen. They have to hope to get to the playoffs and get hot, something teams accomplish all the time.

[dlk9s]

This thread is making my soul weep.

[paul253]

They are never going to field a team as good as the powers in the AL East

 

What does the AL East have anything to do with this? Right now they are barely fielding a team as good as the rest of the teams in the NL Central. They are more than capable of fielding a team that can win 90-94 games, but they have to start doing something they've never done under Doug Melvin. They need to start developing their own top of the rotation starting pitchers.

 

Monty I don't disagree with a lot of what you said, and like I did say right away in post one....i am only half serious about this idea. But you are overlooking one issue. While the casual fan may think of us as the "same old Brewers" if we make the trades, will they not also think that way when we start having .500 and below .500 seasons 4 or 5 years in a row? The difference is that one way (trade the players and bring in elite prospects) is the quick rip off the band-aid approach. It may hurt right away but ultimately the pain goes away quicker. The other way (shoot for the stars this year and hope we have enough left to do it again next season) is the slow, peel it off one inch at a time until it is finally off approach. It may not hurt as much initially, but you are spreading the pain out over a longer period of time. To me, the only thing worse than going into a season with no expectations whatsoever of making the playoffs is to have to do that multiple seasons in a row.

 

Under the current approach, it is an absolute necessity that both Marcum and Greinke are resigned. While it's not impossible for that to happen, by 2013 you may end up paying the two of them plus Braun and Weeks about 35-40% of your total payroll. Not a terrible thing, but when that happens you need a lot of cheap, young and GOOD players to supplement the others. Right now, it doesn't appear as though we have many of those type of players.

 

I hope I'm wrong, I really really do. But I just wonder....if this team does not make the playoffs this season is going to have to be considered an absolute failure. Not just because they didn't make they playoffs, but because they didn't make the playoffs despite playing in arguably the worst division in baseball.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Paul, you've made more than compelling arguments for why they MIGHT not win the division or make the playoffs, I don't think anyone's arguing that. But saying that they should in fact be sellers is a huge stretch, and there've been more than enough counters to that argument.

 

It just doesn't make sense. Do you NOT think that the casual fans who are coming out at the rate of 3 mil, or almost 3 mil per season are going to renew if they were to trade off Greinke, Marcum, Prince, and Axford? I don't think that they won't, I KNOW they won't. The casual fans are fickle, but the truth of the matter is, they're the ones that drive ticket sales and merchandise sales when the team does well. Selling off half of their marquee stars will show the casual fans that they're the 'same old Brewers', and honestly, don't you get tired of hearing that from your 'casual fan' friends? I know I do.

 

So you don't buy the 87 Twins as being a recent enough example of a team with poor pitching that went all the way. I'd like a recent example of a team that was in contention in late July that had a massive mid season fire sale and tore it all down.

 

It's not like they'll get nothing in return for Prince. At this point, I'd wager the draft comp would be MORE valuable than the players we're likely to get in return for a 65 game rental of Prince.

 

There's just nothing at all that makes sense about a sell off at this point. Nothing.

[TheCrew]

dlk9s post on the first page is pure gold...... sorry, I know these types of posts are frowned upon but that one really had me laughing out loud.

[paul253]

Paul, you've made more than compelling arguments for why they MIGHT not

win the division or make the playoffs, I don't think anyone's arguing

that. But saying that they should in fact be sellers is a huge stretch,

and there've been more than enough counters to that argument.

 

I'm not in fact saying they should be sellers. I'm simply bringing up the idea of it and seeing what it would accomplish vs having them continue what they are doing now, not just this year but the next couple of years after that. Perhaps I jumped the gun and we should be having this conversation after the season as we all know they aren't going to sell now. But people on here are so resigned to the fact that they are going to make the playoffs. That's fine. They certainly have a very got chance of doing it. But if they don't, this season is going to be about as big of a failure as any season could be. And if they don't make the playoffs this year, how can we expect them to do it next year?

 

Do you NOT think that the casual fans who are coming out at the rate of 3

mil, or almost 3 mil per season are going to renew if they were to

trade off Greinke, Marcum, Prince, and Axford?

 

By renew do you mean season tickets? If so, I wouldn't refer to them as casual fans. I don't think casual fans are buying season ticket packages. And forget about Fielder. He's gone anyway. I think you could make a VERY good argument for trading Axford, depending of course on what you get in return. I also think you could make a very good argument for trading the other two if you don't think they'll resign. Obviously Melvin and Co. have a much better idea of whether or not that can be accomplished. But you don't build your team around who you think the fans like. If you did, they'd never have traded JJ Hardy. You build the best team possible and once they start winning the fans will come, just like they have. It's not about individual players, it's about the team's record.

 

I also take issue with the idea that trading those 4 will set the organization back for years and push us into a rebuilding mode. Axford is replaceable. Most closers are. Fielder is gone anyway and you may very well end up with a second round pick and a supplemental first round pick for him if someone like Chicago or Baltimore signs him. Marcum and Greinke are really the two main pieces here. If Marcum pitches next year like he has this year he may very well hit the FA market hoping to score big, and we've all seen teams overspend to get pitching. If Greinke returns to form he may opt to do the same thing. On the flip side, if Greinke pitches next year like he has this year, that's three down seasons in a row. I believe he'd be 29 by the time he signs a new contract and pitchers start to go downhill not long after that. Would you really want to throw all hopes into a 29 year old pitcher coming off of 3 down years? While his value may not be highest right now, I don't see the harm in dangling out there to see what you get in return. If someone like the Braves get desperate and offer someone like Teheran would you take it? I sure hope so.

At this point, I'd wager the draft comp would be MORE valuable than the

players we're likely to get in return for a 65 game rental of Prince.

 

That I very much disagree with. Draft picks are a crap shoot, especially when you start getting into the 30's and lower where one or both may end up being.

[craigharmann]

In a word...seriously? In another word....why? In another word.....NO!!!!!

[Raw Biz]

I'm starting to think this thread should just be locked. Teams in a pennant race (and 1/2 game out of 1st) don't sell at this point. And they shouldn't. I don't think there's anything else to discuss. Even if the Brewers chance of making the playoffs is 33%, I still say you go for it because the positives (making the playoffs) outweigh the negatives (not making it, trading pieces away for prospects which may not pan out, pissing off the fans, etc.).

[JJHardy7]

I will just enjoy the fact that we can complain and whine about being pretty much in first place in mid-July. Much better than other years!

 

Again, like I've mentioned it's fine to knock the organization for this and that, but at times I think we're over critical...like most of us know...things can be much, much, much worse.

[mothershipconnection]

Remember when this was the time of year when we'd wonder if we got future big leaguers out of Mike DeJean and Leskanic? Thought we'd maybe be a year of two from reaping the massive benefits of giving roster spots to Enrique Cruz and Matt Ford? Debated whether Kinney or Franklin was more deserving of a rotation spot? Was Ginter going to be an important part of the future?

 

Me too, those years sucked.

[kramnoj]

I'm not saying a team like the Brewers CAN'T win the World Series, I'm saying that it's not very likely to happen.

 

At this point, I'm wondering if you actually know what your position is. In your first post in this thread you wrote "I am convinced that even if they sneak into the playoffs they'll be a one a done because they can't win on the road. "

 

********

 

I never said winning the lottery, I said significant money, which to me is >=$100 on a $1 investment, then again maybe you don't play the lottery and didn't realize there were different payouts.

 

I'm going to guess this is a response to me. I didn't write "winning". I said "two mid 80s teams wining the World Series in the past quarter century is much better odds than some silly comparison to the lottery. Talk about way off the mark."

 

but to point to the Twins as proof it's possible is playing pretend as far as I'm concerned, Miller Park doesn't give the Brewers a Metrodome type advantage.

 

Yet, somehow, the Brewers currently have a winning percentage at home that is better than what the 87 Twins had. It's unlikely that they will continue that pace, but that is where the team currently is.

[GamelToe]

How'd the Giants look last year right around this time?

[hawing]

Talk to people off this site. People who don't live, sleep, eat and breathe Brewers baseball. It's hard to convince long-time fans that we're not the "same old Brewers." These fans were lied to (or at least felt they were lied to) for years by the Selig regime. Trading Fielder, Axford, Greinke and Marcum right now would send fans screaming for the door, and rightfully so. I don't know if you've ever run a business, but even if "selling" now was a good baseball move, it is certainly a bad business move, as Mark A would immediately lose all of the goodwill he's worked so hard for since taking over the helm. Posters here may scoff at the "casual fan," but their money is as green as ours, and they outnumber us by a long-shot. Without them, we cannot have a successful franchise. Many of these fans can't name our own prospects, so trading a potential league MVP in the middle of a pennant race for a group of prospects wouldn't go over well. Maybe, just maybe, if all the prospects you would get by trading Fielder, Axford, Greinke and Marcum pan out, and we find ourselves in a pennant race again in 3 or 4 years, some of these fans might think about coming back out to a game. Until then, it'd be really easy to get good seats to a game, and Attansio's new "demand-based pricing" would blow up in his face.

As arguably the most serious Brewers fan in my workplace (and the magnet for Brewers questions from just about anyone with a Brewers question), I can fully attest to what monty has said above. Fully.

[TooLiveBrew]

How'd the Giants look last year right around this time?

 

54-43 through 97 games (compared to 51-46 for 2011 MIL)

[RockCoCougars]

The only thing the Brewers should be selling at this point is Counsell's contract to the Nippon Ham Fighters.

[theavrock]

The only thing the Brewers should be selling at this point is Counsell's contract to the Nippon Ham Fighters.

I had to look up who the Ham Fighters are. Well played sir.

[danzig6767]

The Pirates should not be buyers, the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds should be without a doubt. You don't get that many shots at the playoffs and all of them are in solid position to make it and once you make it you don't have to be the best team to win it all. To be honest if the Brewers were sellers it would be just about the dumbest move I've seen in baseball, they define the type of team that has to go for it now.

I agree 100 percent. I didn't even click on this thread until just now because i thought it had to be a sarcastic joke.

 

This team certainly has flaws, but they easily have as good a chance to

win the division as anyone else. If they do, as others have said,

baseball history is littered with teams who made the World Series even

though they weren't the best team in the AL or NL. Plus, let's not act

like anything besides winning the World Series would make the season a

failure.

 

I've seen some threads started on here over the years that were extremely baffling, but this one has to rank right near the top. Just Greinke having a great second half of the year and finding an upgrade to at least one of McGehee/Betancourt, the Brewers then could easily have a hot stretch in the playoffs as quite a few other teams have in baseball history. If that happened, it would go down as the most memorable October in Brewers history, even if they came short of winning a title.

 

On the flip side, selling now would not only be very stupid from just a baseball sense, it would be the ultimate stab in the back of Brewers fans who fill Miller Park at a market size ratio better than anyone else in the league. I have had quite a few things i disagree with Melvin about over the years, but thankfully he's the GM and Attanasio is the owner, not paul because they'd never even consider selling in a season like this.

[TooLiveBrew]

The only thing the Brewers should be selling at this point is Counsell's contract to the Nippon Ham Fighters.

I had to look up who the Ham Fighters are. Well played sir.

Fwiw, it's Nippon Ham, with the nickname "Fighters". Although "Ham Fighters" is funnier.

[paul253]

At this point, I'm wondering if you actually know what your position is.

In your first post in this thread you wrote "I am convinced that even

if they sneak into the playoffs they'll be a one a done because they

can't win on the road. "

 

You want to know what my position is? My position is that the Brewers are a borderline playoff team who will be lucky to win a first round series. My position is that they should be a lot better than they are and nobody can figure out why they are not. Is it possible for them to win the World Series? Of course it is. It's possible that Pittsburgh will win the World Series. But with the way they've played this year, this entire year (not last week, not that four game stretch in April, not any little stretch) it's very hard for me to see them going anywhere when/if they make the playoffs. Forgive me for thinking past a first round series. People are going back 24 years to find a team with comparable pitching and road rankings that won the Series. It's very easy for me to see them fall off significantly over the next few years as key members of the team leave and we have nobody to replace them with other than free agents. Next year people are talking about an upgrade at third and upgrade at short. They'll need to replace Fielder. They may need to replace 3 key bullpen members. They may need to find a good left handed reliever, and so on. I can see Gamel solving one of those issues but everything else is going to have to come from free agency because they have nobody left to trade. This organization cannot survive on free agency. I understand the "let's worry about it later" theory, but eventually it's going to be later and this team is not going to be very good. It's going to be a lot harder to fix the team when there are no trade assets.

 

I personally would rather see them get an influx in young, cheap, controllable talent (just like the talent that got us to where we are today) that will keep them competitive for 4 or 5 years then to throw all our eggs in one basket. I felt differently before the year, but again, before the year I thought they'd be much better than this. Yes it's my fault for having those expectations, but can anyone honestly say they only expected 85 or 86 wins out of this team? People keep saying, well all we need is Greinke to get hot. Yes, that would be great but why do we assume that will happen? Because he has a lot of strikeouts? Marcum has been banged up. Gallardo had a nice start tonight but is he going to do it the next time out? Who knows. Everyone just assumes the best of this team which I think could be a mistake.

 

My position is that if the Brewers have an opportunity to significantly improve their team in the immediate future they need to think about doing it. Of course they aren't going to sell now. But at the end of the year they might have to.

 

For all those people who are against this all, if you were offered Julio Teheran for Greinke right now, would you accept it? It would be a P.R. nightmare, but I'd accept that deal in a heartbeat. And I'm not asking if you think Atlanta would offer it because we all know they wouldn't, but if they did would you accept it?

[DuWayne Steurer]

It's one thing to ask the question, but to try to back up the premise with a hypothetical that will never happen doesn't really support the argument.

 

And no, at this stage in this season, I wouldn't trade Greinke for one unproven talent, no matter how hyped that talent is.

[HiAndTight]

I'd certainly rather do that than trade away Fielder because we may not be able to beat the Yankees in the World Series.

Or the Pirates to win the division.

So since they're not just laying down for us almost 100 games in and they're a whole half game ahead of us, lets just blow the whole thing up....

[HiAndTight]

Next year people are talking about an upgrade at third and upgrade at short. They'll need to replace Fielder. They may need to replace 3 key bullpen members. They may need to find a good left handed reliever, and so on. I can see Gamel solving one of those issues but everything else is going to have to come from free agency because they have nobody left to trade. This organization cannot survive on free agency. I understand the "let's worry about it later" theory, but eventually it's going to be later and this team is not going to be very good. It's going to be a lot harder to fix the team when there are no trade assets.

 

For all those people who are against this all, if you were offered Julio Teheran for Greinke right now, would you accept it? It would be a P.R. nightmare, but I'd accept that deal in a heartbeat. And I'm not asking if you think Atlanta would offer it because we all know they wouldn't, but if they did would you accept it?

First of all, if simply citing spots on our roster as an rationale for wanting to sell is valid, than there isn't a team in baseball without similar concerns. They may need to replace 3 key bullpen members? Who are these irreplaceable BP members? K-Rod who we've had for FOUR games? Certainly you can't be referencing him in a thread about how we've underperformed all year. Hawkins? Hardly irreplaceable, Saito? You seem to be arguing against yourself now, bringing up guys we're losing who have had minimal impacts on this team thus far this year as reasons why we're going to fall off so significantly in the future.

 

So...we're back to the same issues we've got right now. We need to upgrade 3rd, SS and replace Prince. You also claim we have "nobody left to trade," which is quite obviously hyperbole. Nonetheless, nobody is suggesting the Brewers can "survive on Free Agency," and in reality, I'm not even sure why we're focusing on next year in a thread about selling THIS year and our chances this year, but in staying with that, we don't need to survive on it. We need it to supplement what we have. Which we're just fine with. This team needs a defensive upgrade which is hardly impossible to attain through free agency.

 

Either way, you don't throw away a chance at the playoffs or the World Series because things haven't gone perfectly or because the Pirates are a half game up on us.

[kramnoj]

Yes it's my fault for having those expectations, but can anyone honestly say they only expected 85 or 86 wins out of this team?

 

Expected? Sure. Projections aren't near perfect, but the RLYW Diamond Mind projections had the Brewers at 83 Wins. I personally thought that might be short a few wins, but there wasn't any real reason to expect 95 Wins. I was hoping for 87-88 Wins and hoped that would be enough for a playoff spot.

 

 

You want to know what my position is?

 

If you are going to start a thread, then yes, your position should be clear.

 

People are going back 24 years to find a team with comparable pitching and road rankings that won the Series.

 

I"m curious, what do you find to be an acceptable timeframe, and how can you justify that limitation?

 

It's very easy for me to see them fall off significantly over the next few years as key members of the team leave and we have nobody to replace them with other than free agents.

 

Do you think you are on an island with the belief that they will fall off significantly? I'm going to guess that the vast majority of people expect the Brewers to fall off with Fielder gone. And I'm going to guess that many would expect more of a drop off if Marcum and Greinke leave.

 

For all those people who are against this all, if you were offered Julio Teheran for Greinke right now, would you accept it?

 

I wouldn't. This team has a decent shot at making the playoffs, and they have a shot at the World Series. By the time Teheran is ready to be a major contributor on a World Series team, I don't think I could say with confidence who his teammates would be, except for Braun and probably Lucroy.

Is it possible for them to win the World Series? Of course it is. It's possible that Pittsburgh will win the World Series.

 

I don't think it's possible for the Pirates to win the world series this year. Do you really think the Brewers shot at winning the World series is closer to Pittsburgh, than say Atlanta?

[monty57]

Perhaps I jumped the gun and we should be having this conversation after the season as we all know they aren't going to sell now.

 

Now that is certainly a debateable topic with some merit. Much will come down to how this year goes (World Series, playoffs, miss playoffs), as any playoff games will add a lot of cash to the coffers, but this offseason is important to our future. Do we use some of the freed up cash to go for one of the big name SS's on the market (Reyes, Rollins, Furcal) and shoot for another "all in" year? Do we attempt to extend Marcum and/or Grienke? Or, do we look to trade Marcum, Greinke and/or Wolf and attempt a quick rebuild? Do we do a little of each (i.e. extend Marcum, sign a SS, trade Greinke for young pitchers)?

 

After this year, we lose Fielder ($15.5MM - big loss, but hopefully cushioned somewhat with Gamel), Hawkins ($4MM), Saito ($1.75MM) and K-Rod (mostly paid by Mets) who are talented, but currently combine for a total of 34.1 innings pitched this season so they aren't key to our success and can be replaced, Kam Loe ($1.25MM) and guys like Betancourt ($4MM) and Counsell ($1.4MM) who will improve the team by leaving and Manny Parra ($1.2MM going into yr 2 arby). That's certainly not an insurmountable loss, and that's around $30MM in freed up cash (there will be $10MM+ in pay raises to offset that down to somewhere under $20MM in "free cash"). With some decent offseason roster management, we could still be a playoff team next year. The bigger concern will be after next year, when Marcum and Greinke could be gone and we probably won't have in-house replacements for them.

 

"What should we do this offseason" isn't the topic of this thread, but it is a much more sensible discussion.