Should the Brewers be a seller instead?

[paul253]

Yes I am only half kidding about this and don't expect them to because the Brewers obviously went "all-in" this year, but is that a mistake? In my opinion they are not living up to expectations, not even close, and I am convinced that even if they sneak into the playoffs they'll be a one a done because they can't win on the road. After this year, Prince is gone and the chances of making the playoffs are even smaller. After that, obviously Wolf, Marcum and Greinke are free agents and who knows what will happen. I've heard the market for starting pitchers is so weak the Colorado is considering trading Jimenez in the hopes people will look more at his 2010 than 2011. They are said to be looking for two or three high ceiling prospects. I've read that as many as 12 teams have checked in on Jimenez. Would Marcum bring something equal or better in return considering his contract ends at the same time (Jimenez has the option to terminate his contract after next season if he gets traded) and he seems to be pitching better than Jimenez? If you could get a Banuelos or Betances from NY or something similar from another team would you go for it? Or if you get a #1 or #2 ceiling prospect pitcher for Greinke? And teams are always looking for relief help. I understand Texas is looking for a closer. Why not trade Axford, the ultimate sell-high player? If you could get one legit starting pitching prospect why not go for it? You still have K-Rod for the 9th and can offer him arby after the year. Closers are the most overrated position in the game. And finally Fielder. Obviously trading him would amount to giving up (unless you think we could still make the playoffs with Gamel) but just imagine what one of the leading MVP candidates could bring in. Probably at least 2 or 3 high ceiling position prospects.

 

This team is not a World Series team. I hate to say it because I am a huge fan and a partial season ticket holder. But considering that the team is going to lose Fielder I just have a bad feeling that this team is going to be no better than a .500 team for the next 4-5 seasons. They just don't have any impact prospects anywhere in the system and the current core of the team are all in their prime and getting expensive. Just imagine how well you could rebuild the system by trading Axford, Fielder, Marcum and Greinke. And with guys like Braun, Hart, Morgan, Weeks, McGehee, Gallardo, and Wolf, future regular Gamel, and possible future regulars in Green, Gindl and Schafer, it's not like you're going to be trotting out a bunch of AAAA players every day. If you can trade the four I listed and get replacements for Marcum and Greinke's rotation spots who have #1-#3 potential plus additional high ceiling prospects, I think you need to strongly consider doing so even knowing that it may ruin your chance to win the division this season. The future of the organization is a huge question mark and I hate to see them stick to this "win now at all costs" motto when the "winning now" isn't going so well.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It's honestly hard to take this question really seriously when they're a 1/2 game in first place on July 18th.

 

You sell now, and you are going to seriously, SERIOUSLY piss off the casual fans who bought in that this was a 'go for it' year. Selling now could (and I think it's 'would') seriously impact season ticket sales next year.

[monty57]

I know it's sometimes easy to dismiss the playoffs if you don't win the World Series, but I'd bet every fan on here can name the playoff appearances the Brewers have had. With the Brewers' history, the chance to win the Central is huge, even if we don't make the World Series, and I wouldn't just dismiss the team and say they're an automatic one-and-done. We have a very good starting rotation, one of the best 8th/9th inning combos in baseball and a lot of offensive talent. Anyone can win in the playoffs, and Marcum, Greinke, Yo, Wolf give us a good chance to win any series.

 

If we decided the future looks bleak, we would likely wait until after this season and then trade off some combo of Marcum, Greinke and Wolf, who would all command decent return this offseason. More likely, I think they'll try to extend at least one of Marcum and / or Greinke, pencil Gamel in at 1B and use some of the Fielder/Hawkins/Betancourt/Saito/Counsell money to find a real SS. The Central's weak and will get weaker when Pujols leaves St Louis. We'll have a good shot at the playoffs again next year even without Fielder.

[CheezWizHed]

In my opinion they are not living up to expectations, not even close

 

What were you expecting? A 100 win team? Right now they are targeted for 86 wins. I expected 90 this year, so that puts them slightly below my expectations. Selling right now would be grounds for immediate firing of DM.

 

The goal right now is to make the playoffs, preferably by winning their division. Then you worry about winning in the playoffs. The Packers played below expectations much of last year (mainly due to injuries, but...) then when they got to the playoffs, they gelled, got hot, and won it all.

[RockCoCougars]

The sky is falling. A lot of people didn't think that they'd be in first place in mid-July. I may be a homer, but I don't think they've been playing anywhere near their potential yet. If they do, they should win the division in a cake walk. Why is this team 'not a World Series team'? Last July, did anyone think that the Giants were a championship caliber team with that pathetic offense? If they can get Greinke and Gallardo going at the same time, I like their chances against anybody, including Philly.

[chadomac]

I can't even wrap my head around the idea of selling right now, because it's just ridiculous - especially after the Rodriguez trade that just occurred.

 

The NL Central is wide open and it would take a horrible slump for the Brewers not to have a chance going into September. Also, the point about the fanbase revolting is very valid - there is absolutely no way they will sell.

 

It doesn't matter if you think the Brewers are a World Series team or not right now. It is not rare for a not-great team (hi Brewers) to get hot at the right time and end up in the World Series.

[Kricket755]

The 2006 Cardinals won 83 regular season games. I don't think they had the overwhelming "feeling" of a World Series team.

[fondybrewfan]

The Brewers could lose the next 10 games and I still wouldn't want them to sell. The division is so mediocre this year that 85 or 86 wins could win it. If we sold and ended up maybe 3-4 games out of first with around 80 wins how pissed do you think the fan base would be. Ticket sales would probably drop under 2.5 million next year and then the payroll has to drop to 70-75 Million.

[RobDeer 45]

I don't think they should sell this year at all. Sure it would be nice to get something for Fielder but I really think we hav to let it all play out. I do however think they should be sellers after the year. I think they shold try to sign one of Marcum or ZG and trade the other. If they can't sign either, then they should be selling. Yes it will stink but I really think by trading quality pitching we can bring in a couple young pitchers and bats that will be ready in another year. Then we make another run at things for a couple more years.

[paul253]

What were you expecting? A 100 win team? Right now they are targeted

for 86 wins. I expected 90 this year, so that puts them slightly below

my expectations. Selling right now would be grounds for immediate

firing of DM.

 

Maybe not a 100 win team, but certainly a 92-94 win team. I was expecting a consistent offense that could hit as well on the road as they do at home, a Zack Greinke that I could rely on every single game, a Yovani Gallardo who pitched like he did last season, and a bullpen that didn't blow lead after lead. I was expecting a team that wouldn't be in a dog fight with Pittsburgh to get into the playoffs and a team that was better than 13 in the NL in team ERA.

Right now they are targeted for 86 wins.

 

Before the season, if I told you we were going to trade out best hitting prospect, our best pitching prospect, our starting shortstop and our likely starting centerfielder and we'd finish a cool 10 games over .500, would you have been satisfied? I would not have. And I hope I'm wrong but I don't think 86 wins is going to win the division.

If they can get Greinke and Gallardo going at the same time, I like their chances against anybody, including Philly.

 

 

That's a pretty big if though. Gallardo is the model of inconsistency this season and Greinke hasn't been pitching very well all season long.

 

Why is this team 'not a World Series team'?

 

Look at the other potential playoff teams. Philly: 5 games over .500 on the road. Atlanta: 6 games over .500 on the road. SF: 2 games over .500 on the road. Pittsburgh: 4 games over .500 on the road. St Louis: A game over .500 on the road. Arizona: 2 games over .500 on the road. Milwaukee: 13 games UNDER .500 on the road. Only Cleveland and Detroit are in playoff contention and under .500 on the road, but neither are anywhere near as bad as Milwaukee. If you can't win on the road, especially when you don't have home field advantage like they probably wouldn't, you aren't a World Series team. This isn't like the NFL where you win one game and move on. You need to beat a team 3 times to advance to the second round and then 4 times to get to the World Series. The Brewers numbers, both pitching and hitting, are much worse on the road than they are at home.

The sky is falling.

 

This is not based on them losing 4 games in a row, or Greinke having two or three bad outings in a row or anything else that occurred over the course of a week. This is about the team as a whole after more than half of the season. The Brewers are tied for 13th in the NL in team ERA. That's not good. This is basically the same team as last season. Lead the league in HR's and Slugging, slightly about average in OBP, bad in pitching. It's not a good formula for success in my opinion.

 

Look, I'm not suggesting they do this and I don't think they would. But this franchise is in trouble. Let's face it, without Prince Fielder this season this is not a playoff team. He's been that important. He's gone next year. I'm as high on Gamel as anyone but he has yet to prove himself at the major league level. St. Louis may lose Pujols, but we'll definitely lose Fielder. They get Adam Wainwright back though. Pittsburgh is getting better, Cincy has some issues but they have a nice core as well. Our farm system is empty. Peralta and Thornburg are just about it as far as high ceiling pitching. And high ceiling hitters? I don't know, maybe Khris Davis but that's about it.

 

I'd prefer a team that can compete every season, not one and possibly two season before dropping off significantly. And IF you are going to go for the "all in" route, I'd think the team should be a lot better than this team is. Enough with the "potential". It's time for results.

[The Truth]

They should be buyers this season

 

If they move Braun to 1B next season (which they should do anyways to avoid wear & tear on his legs) and use some of the Prince $$$ on a very good LF, they should be plenty competitive next season. It is 2013 that is more of a concern, with Greinke & Marcum likely gone then

[FoxyFoxes]

With all due respect to the original poster this is one of those threads we dig up if the team wins the World Series.

 

To be fair though, the OP can dig up my post if the Brewers crash and burn and are out of it in August too . http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[dlk9s]

Should the Brewers be a seller instead?

http://i1107.photobucket.com/albums/h396/dlk9s/colin_farrelConfused.gif

[reillymcshane]

This team is not a World Series team.

Maybe you don't think so, but I disagree. All it takes is a move or two and some good uck, and a team can go on a tear. If that happens in the playoffs, you're gold.

 

To me, a World Series team has good top-of-the-rotation pitching. Gallard, Marcum and Greinke can be that (have they been this year - no, but they can). The rest is a bit of luck (health, guys getting hot, etc.) and maybe even a roster move or two.

 

The first step to the World Series is making the playoffs. We are in the thick of it, and we have 6 weeks to get our roster in order. There are definitely things that need doing, but it's not impossible.

[The Truth]

The first step to the World Series is making the playoffs.

Actually the first step to the World Series is DFA'ing Betancourt

[gregmag]

Paul, it's a fair question and a well thought-out post. I agree with the main response that others have offered: getting to the playoffs is huge. I think you're understating the value for the franchise of just getting that far and overstating the extent to which you / we can accurately judge the team's chances to win in the playoffs.

[CheezWizHed]

Before the season, if I told you we were going to trade out best hitting prospect, our best pitching prospect, our starting shortstop and our likely starting centerfielder and we'd finish a cool 10 games over .500, would you have been satisfied? I would not have. And I hope I'm wrong but I don't think 86 wins is going to win the division.

 

Satisfied? Of course not. My expectations (as I mentioned above) after all of that happening was 90 wins. They are on track for 86 wins right now and I think they have good potential to improve. So I still expect them to hit 90.

 

Even with all of those trades, the realistic view of the team was that they had holes (the biggest of which was made at SS by those trades). And the season is playing out like that. I think it was pie in the sky expectations that they would walk away from everyone and become a WS champion. But they are contenders.

[rluzinski]

Before the season, if I told you we were going to trade out best hitting prospect, our best pitching prospect, our starting shortstop and our likely starting centerfielder and we'd finish a cool 10 games over .500, would you have been satisfied? I would not have. And I hope I'm wrong but I don't think 86 wins is going to win the division.

 

The Brewers' record is inline with preseason expectations (85-88 wins according to sims and Vegas). Whether you are personally satisfied with that is something different.

[owbc]

The road record doesn't really matter if they win at home. They only need to win 2 Postseason road games to win the World Series, one in the NLDS and one in the NLCS. The postseason is a complete crapshoot, the Brewers easily could have beaten the Phillies in 2008, that series hinged on just a few key at-bats and the Suppan decision. Anything can happen in a 5-game NLDS.

 

Regular season wins do not really matter. Winning 116 games did nothing for the Mariners in 2001. Being 1 game better than 2nd place is all that is necessary.

 

The monetary gain of making the postseason is also huge. Melvin can take the extra profits and reinvest it into the franchise. In fact, they already got most of the monetary gain. Even if they completely collapse, they are guaranteed 2.7-2.8 million fans. Without the Greinke trade they were facing a precipitous decline, 2.2-2.3 million or less. So the other option besides going "all in" was to put the franchise prematurely in a funk, give Prince Fielder away a year early (when there was no market for him), lower the payroll, and go back to hoping that things pan out again in 2013-2015.

 

Attanasio and Melvin have thrown away the notion that the Brewers are a small market team: based on attendance, revenue, and payroll they are clearly now a mid market franchise. The only difference between Milwaukee and the other mid-markets is that Milwaukee requires a higher percentage of fans in its market to be interested. It has paid incredible dividends--more fans at the gate, big names want to sign here, the national media takes Milwaukee seriously, and most importantly, the Brewers no longer have to go through a constant rebuilding cycle. I would hope that a period like 2002-2007 is never necessary again. Yes it would be nice to have a better minor league system, but most fans couldn't care less how Brevard and Huntsville are doing this year. If anything, prospects are overvalued in MLB right now and if teams are going to give away top-tier players like Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke in exchange for minor leaguers, then Melvin should keep doing it.

[Warning Track Power]

This team is not a World Series team.

Agreed. The problem though to me is not if this team is a World Series team, but is it a playoff contending team? To this question it is a resounding yes and because of that we should never be sellers. Until the economics of baseball are sorted out to allow for all teams to spend on an equal basis, small market teams will continually have to hope their window is open for the opprotunity just to make the playoffs. This is the "World Series" to me as a fan of the small market Brewers. Anything more than making the playoffs is gravy.

 

Don't take this as an attitude that I don't want to win the World Series or that I don't think we can. I just believe that when a Yankees team can make the playoffs every year from 1995-2007 or the Yankees and Red Sox of the MLB world can can continually rebuild in an offseason by trading for or buying other teams best players, the real goal for the rest of the leagues fans is making the playoffs and hope you pull the miracle in a short series.

[Invader3K]

The answer to the OP's question is a resounding "NO!", and there really can't be any legitimate debate on it. Selling now would be suicide for this franchise in terms of business and in terms of fan perception. We have an excellent chance to see the Brewers win an NL Central Title, which would be a franchise first. Yes, I'd love to be able to say, "This team will go the World Series!" today on July 18th, but that is just asking too much. That doesn't mean you sell off now, though.

[monty57]

I'd prefer a team that can compete every season, not one and possibly two season before dropping off significantly.

 

Since the dawn of free agency, how many teams can do that? Really you're looking at the Yankees and Red Sox, and even they have been beat out by the Rays in the recent past. The Braves did it when they had the Superstation backing them. Who else is a playoff contender year in & year out? The Twins have done a good job of being "competitve" in a small market, and St Louis is in the hunt fairly often. The Cubs made a big World Series push a few years ago, and they're paying for it now. The Phillies (most losses of any team in history) are good now, but they signed a lot of top-heavy contracts to win while the sun's shining before they'll probably flounder while some of the contracts work their way off the books.

 

I guess everyone would like to open Spring Training with the World Series realisitically in their sites, but that's not often the case. I'm happy the Brewers have a good team this year. I'm happy they should have a good team next year. I hope they'll make moves between now and 2013 that will make them good beyond next year, but I don't want those moves "for the future" to take us out of playoff contention today. All is not perfect in Mudville, but it's certainly better than it's been for most of my life, and I don't want to spend too much time lamenting what could be when I could be enjoying what is.

[paul253]

With all due respect to the original poster this is one of those threads we dig up if the team wins the World Series.

 

I hope you do. I'm not writing this because I don't like the Brewers or don't think they have the ability to make the playoffs this year. That being said, at this very moment I don't think they can reach the World Series and I don't think they can make the playoffs next season. I want them to be competitive every year, not just pretty good one year then average or below average the next 4 seasons, which I think is where the franchise is heading. I was very high on Milwaukee's playoff chances coming into the season

based on 2 assumptions. I assumed they'd have a good, consistent offense and a good,

consistent starting rotation. Both are good but neither is consistent.

And after this season, I see things going downhill pretty fast and

staying down for at least 3 or 4 years.

Even with all of those trades, the realistic view of the team was that they had holes

 

But the other realistic view is that the pitching staff was vastly improved. It is better than last year (4.12 ERA right now vs 4.58 last season) but ranking wise it's not much improved. Last year they were 14th in the NL in team ERA. This year they are tied for 12th, but only .01 of percentage point out of 14th.

All it takes is a move or two and some good luck, and a team can go on a tear. If that happens in the playoffs, you're gold.

 

Yes, but with the inconsistency they've been playing with all season they are just as capable of losing 8 in a row as they are of winning 8 in a row. If that happens, they are now 4 or 5 games out of first place and probably in 4th. Not out of it by any means but certainly makes it much harder, especially with their winning percentage away from Milwaukee. The Brewers also play pretty bad defense. I think it's harder for a team to have a lot of good luck when they can't play defense.

 

If they move Braun to 1B next season (which they should do anyways to

avoid wear & tear on his legs) and use some of the Prince $$$ on a

very good LF, they should be plenty competitive next season. It is

2013 that is more of a concern, with Greinke & Marcum likely gone

then

 

Looking at potential free agents I don't see a whole lot of good left or right fielders out there to get. There are also facing the possibility of losing three key relievers in K-Rod, Saito, and Hawkins so the bullpen will need to be addressed. And shortstop obviously.

 

With all due respect to some of the posters here, I see a lot of "our rotation has the potential...." and "our rotation could be just as good as....". The season is 60% over and they are tied for 12th in the league out of 16 teams in ERA. The pitching staff doesn't just need get better. They need to get a lot better.

[FVBrewerFan]

Do I think they could be World Series champs right now? No. But we're not even through July yet! What if Philly has a couple major injuries, espeically to their rotation? What if Greinke and gallardo save their best for October? Could Corey Hart have one of his infamous red-hot streaks in October?

 

If you wait until they are the favorites to win the world Series, you could be waiting for...well...forever. At some point, you have to relish winning the division and having an opportunity to compete for a title. Too much money hads been invested to get to this point. A stadium was built to get to this point. Prince, Braun, Weeks, etc. were drafted and edloped to have this opportunity. Fans want to see this play out. And not just "casual" fans. We are all in, and someone could very well call our bluff....but I'm not folding. Now show me the river card please.

[owbc]

I'd prefer a team that can compete every season, not one and possibly two season before dropping off significantly.

 

Since the dawn of free agency, how many teams can do that? Really you're looking at the Yankees and Red Sox, and even they have been beat out by the Rays in the recent past. The Braves did it when they had the Superstation backing them. Who else is a playoff contender year in & year out? The Twins have done a good job of being "competitve" in a small market, and St Louis is in the hunt fairly often. The Cubs made a big World Series push a few years ago, and they're paying for it now. The Phillies (most losses of any team in history) are good now, but they signed a lot of top-heavy contracts to win while the sun's shining before they'll probably flounder while some of the contracts work their way off the books.

The Yankees and Red Sox only compete every year because they have smart people in charge. The 1990s Braves and the 2008-2010s Phillies combined high payrolls with great starting rotations. The Cardinals have a great coaching staff. The Cubs, Mets, and Dodgers fail due to incompetency by ownership, management, or both.

 

The Brewers will probably never be the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, or Braves. But they can be the White Sox, Angels, Twins, or Cardinals--where every year in Spring Training you know they have a chance to make the playoffs that particular year if things go right. Think of the 2010 Angels or the 2011 White Sox and Twins. They are not playoff teams, but the reason is primarily due to injuries--had things gone right those teams were fully capable of making the playoffs. The Brewers are not quite to that level, but they were not horrible in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2010. They averaged almost 80 wins over those 5 non-playoff years and drew enough attention to keep the fans filling the stands and generally still were contending at the all-star break.

 

The Brewers are also helped by being in a low payroll division. Why bother to compare the Brewers to the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox? The Brewers can stack 3 good starters together and have almost a 50/50 chance of taking them down in a 5 or 7 game postseason series. The average payroll in the NL Central is $85 million and the highest payroll team (Chicago) is incapable of spending its money properly.

 

The Brewers can't just throw away seasons to rebuilding and expect the fans and free agents to show up the next year. Any free agent that signs a 3-4 year contract in Milwaukee does not want to give up 2-3 of those years to rebuilding. The Brewers' track record shows that even in down years they still field a reasonable team. They spend a reasonable amount of money every year to keep a steady amount of interest and revenue coming in. The continue to give themselves a shot at the postseason, even if it doesn't work out every year. The area of improvement that needs to be made is moving from averaging 80 wins/year to averaging 85 wins/year so they can make the postseason every other year or so (especially with the 2nd Wild Card).

 

What happens if they go through a 3-5 year rebuilding process, get a 95-100 win "World Series Contender" team, and then dump the NLDS to an 86-win team due to random luck?