Plan for 6th and 7th innings

[NYChez]

The 8th and 9th inning plans are now obvious: combination of Rodriguez and Axford.

Prior to the 6th inning, the plan is also obvious: Marco Estrada, who has been effective in that role.

With the K-Rod trade, the uncertainty has shifted to the middle innings. Observing games and reviewing stats and splits, the roles in the 6th and 7th innings are nearly as obvious. Over the last several seasons, Hawkins has been much more effective against lefty hitters than righty. He doesn't need to be solely a LOOGY, but if there is a middle inning featuring two out of three lefty hitters, then he's your guy.

Loe only starts innings and only pitches if two of the next three hitters are righties, and he never faces a left-handed power hitter.

If Saito is rested, he takes one of these innings, especially if righties are due at bat.

Dillard only pitches in high-leverage situations if other guys have been over-used.

If you need an extra out or two in the 7th inning in a high-leverage situation, then bring in K-Rod a little early. Get through a tough 7th and it impacts the opposing team's choice in relief pitcher: the Brewers would be more likely to extend the lead following a successful 7th than following a 7th where they gave up the lead. Extend the lead and you may not even need K-Rod or Axford for 4 or more outs.

This plan seems fairly obvious, but it seems like Roenicke isn't even close to figuring this out yet.

[MkeSouthSide]

One thing about set roles for the relievers (8th and 9th innings at least) - they seem only to apply when it's a tie or the team has a lead of 3 runs or fewer.

 

Those situations probably apply in ~50% or fewer of the time. I hope that moving forward RRR will occasionally use KRod or Axford when the Crew is down a run or two to help keep the games close.

[FVBrewerFan]

Right, managing the bullpen has to be a combination of having a plan, and being able to adjust that plan on the fly given game situation. Last night, as the 7th inning was blowing up before out eyes, RR should have been prepared to bring in KRod vs Helton.

 

Personally, I would have stuck with Hawkins and then went with KRod vs Helton. Then, depending on pitch count, he could have used KRod for the 8th. To me, this is one of the big advantages of having two closers. One can be used in the 7th if that is the inning where a lead needs to be protected.

[Paulus88]

Especially if Saito is able to go multiple days (like yesterday when he was warming up) using KRod in the seventh to get the last out you still then have Saito, if needed in the eighth, or right to Axford in the ninth. I can get behind LaRussa style pitching in the sixth and seventh with Estrada, Hawkins, Loe and Dillard, with Saito, KRod and Axe in the eighth and ninth (and to bridge from the seventh).

[joepepsi]

If Axford is to remain the closer than I would rather see K-Rod used for the most critical situation in the game, whether that's the 6,7,or 8th inning.

[logan82]

This really seems like a great time to optimize use of our pitchers. We have 2-3 very good relievers. Why limit ourselves by assigning arbitrary roles?

[xisxisxis]

This really seems like a great time to optimize use of our pitchers. We have 2-3 very good relievers. Why limit ourselves by assigning arbitrary roles?

Because often people like to have set roles for their jobs. Players aren't robots and just like the average employee they like to know what their employer wants from them.

If Axford is to remain the closer than I would rather see K-Rod used for the most critical situation in the game, whether that's the 6,7,or 8th inning.

That sounds way too sensible so I'm sure the brewers won't implement something so radical. I think they will end up with KRod in the 8th and Ax as the closer. I just hope it's Hawkins/Saito sharing the 7th with the pitcher going at least 6.

[logan82]

Because often people like to have set roles for their jobs. Players aren't robots and just like the average employee they like to know what their employer wants from them.

 

Sure they like set roles. Tell them to be ready before the 9th inning and after the starter goes out. There is your set role. They know what is expected.

[monty57]

While it makes tons of sense, K-Rod won't be used in the "critical situation" role. He's going to be a free agent and wants to be able to "prove" he can still close games, so he and Axford will be Closers A & B. Axford will get most of the opportunities, so he can feel he hasn't lost his job, but K-Rod will get plenty of closing opportunities and will be the "8th inning guy" for the rest of his outings. Higher profile, higher contract after the season.

 

As for the 6th & 7th, I hope/expect most of the times we have a lead in the 6th inning, our starter is still pitching. Then Saito/Hawkins can take the 7th leading to K-Rod/Axford. When we're up or down big, I expect to see Estrada, the "long guy" to eat up a few innings and rest the 'pen. When we're down a few, I expect Loe and Dillard with a spattering of Saito/Hawkins, only seeing Axford or K-Rod if they haven't pitched in a few days.

 

Yesterday's game where we saw Saito and Hawkins pitch instead of Loe in a 4-2 game gives me hope that Roenicke is coming around and realizing that Loe isn't better than Saito or Hawkins.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't see how KRod can be the 8th inning guy AND get plenty of closing opportunites. That would mean he would pitch almost every day, and I don't think that's possible. Certainly not the best use for him.

 

If he was used that way, he would pitch in virtually every game Axford saves, PLUS get plenty of his own save opportunites? Just can't see how that's workable. What COULD be workable is having Hawkins or Saito be the 8th inning guy, then KRod could be used to close some games, and otherwise be used as the "emergency guy" when an inning is blowing up late in the game.

[monty57]

What I meant is that Axford could get 70% or so of the save opportunities, and K-Rod the other 30%. Not a "closer by committee" situation, but some days when both are rested, K-Rod will get called on. I don't think this is the best way to handle it, but I think K-Rod waiving his option was done with some kind of guarantee that he will get to save some games.

[FVBrewerFan]

I understand, but even at that how can KRod close 30% of the games, PLUS pitch 100% of the 8th innings where Axford will get the save opportunity? That's a huge workload. The only way that can work is to let someone else handle some of the set-up role. Now roles are getting real murky.

 

Look at our current situation. Axford is probably not available today. But KRod has pitched the last two games also. So I guess KRod "could" pitch the 9th tonight if needed, but is that the best use of Krod? Having him pitch 3 straight days? I guess if it happens here and there, not the end of the world. But if they use him as the set-up guy, this will happen virtually every time. Because that means he'll pitch in almost every game Axford closes PLUS his own save opportunities.

 

Judging from the last time RR talked about this in a post game interview, he hasn't figured out how to use him yet either.

[monty57]

It is murky, but what I'm saying is that I don't believe K-Rod will be "designated 8th inning guy" the way Roenicke would like it. I'd guess it will be a situation where Axford is "usually" the closer, but doesn't always get the save oppotrunities when both are rested. K-Rod will "usually" get the 8th inning, but not always. I'd guess that there will be times when Roenicke uses Axford to set up for K-Rod, or just gives K-Rod the 9th when both pitchers are rested. While I don't think this is the best way to do it, I don't think K-Rod would have waived the option unless he was promised to be at least part-time closer. That said, Axford is going to be on the team past this season, so Roenicke needs to make sure he doesn't feel like he lost his job.

 

There will be periods where the pitchers will be overused and periods where they will need work. You're correct that K-Rod couldn't be both "8th inning guy" and closer, so Roenicke will actually have to manage the pen to make sure his pitchers get rest. This scares me a bit, because Roenicke certainly appears to be a manager who likes to designate specific roles (Closer, 8th inning guy, LOOGY, etc) and not veer from those roles. I'm sure Roenicke would prefer to simply name one of them closer and one of them "8th inning guy," so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

It is a perfect situation to put Axford in the closer role, and K-Rod in the old "Marmol role" of entering in the most critical situations. I just don't see it happening. Boras would be in an uproar if his star client continually appeared in the 5th-7th innings. The way baseball's pay scale is set up, guys who appear in those innings don't make the money of the guys who appear in the 9th inning. The "Save" stat may not be important in judging a pitcher's talent, but it certainly adds to his paycheck.

[FVBrewerFan]

I understand that concern, but GMs (most of them anyhow) are bright enough to understand results are all that matters. Even if KRod gets 0 saves for the Brewers, but pitches very effectivley, they know he can close. That's been proven, even this year. Would it have an effect on his value at all? Yea, probably a little.

 

Judging from what RR has said, and more importanly HOW he said it, I honestly don;t thin he knows yet exactly how he'll use him. He knows KRod CAN close, and I think he's trying to play it out in his own mind just as we are. But I just think they have enough things that are broke, why mess with something that isn't? Axford makes us plenty nervous at times, but the guy is 25/27 in save opportunities. I just wouldn't mess with that unless he's unavailable.

 

If only one of them was a LHP, this would all be easier to work out. As it is, we'll just have to wait and see how this developes. We may find out as early as tonight if RR is comfortable putting KRod out there in the 9th if it's a save situation. It would be his third straight game, but I bet he puts him out there.

[joepepsi]

Because often people like to have set roles for their jobs. Players aren't robots and just like the average employee they like to know what their employer wants from them.

 

Sure they like set roles. Tell them to be ready before the 9th inning and after the starter goes out. There is your set role. They know what is expected.

Earl Weaver's Second Law: If you don't make any promises to your players you won't have to break them

His response to relief pitchers, who questioned their role: "Your role is to warmup when I tell

you and come in the game and pitch when I tell you."