Road WOAAHS. When is it no longer 'bad luck'?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, color me impressed so far. This road trip had the very distinct possibility of putting the Brewers in a sizable hole, and they've come through ( so far) in spades. Just splitting the remaining 4 games would be a 6-5 trip against 3 tough teams, and I don't think you can ask for any more than that. I'd have been (and still would be) satisfied with a 5-6 trip. Not 'happy' with it, but satisfied.

 

I'm pretty sure this thread is what started this run. They knew I was mad, and decided enough was enough.

[topper09er]

The Brewers now have the all time record for most shutouts on the road (10) with 0 at home. The modern (1901-) record difference is 13 games by the 1910 Braves (then playing as the Doves) with 19 road/6 home shutouts and the 1978 ChiSox with 15 road/2 home goose eggs.

[pebadger]

It is pretty amazing that in a full 30% of their road losses, the Brewer pitching performance was essentially irrelevant. Just did another count that may or may not be of interest.

 

In games the Brewers have lost by 5 or more runs this season, 10 of those losses have occurred on the road versus only 1 at Miller Park. Four of those 10 were also shutouts.

 

So we take the 10 shoutouts and add in the 6 blowouts that were not also shutouts and we are at just under 50% of the Brewers 33 road losses being losses of the type that could be classified (in one sense or another) as non-competitive. Yes, I understand that is probably an overly broad assertion but it probably lines up pretty well with fan perceptions.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, standing at 5-4, even losing the last 2 would bring us to a 5-6 road trip. Again, I feared that this trip could put them in a 3-4 game hole, but now absolute worst case scenario is the Brewers going home 1 game out of first. Now obviously you don't want to go home on a 2 game losing streak and lose the good momentum, but this road trip is probably at this point a big positive on the mental side for these guys. And again, I don't know if that makes a difference. Maybe it does. Maybe it's minor, maybe it's a big difference. I'm just happy to see that this tough looking 11 gamer didn't put them in the hole that I feared it could.

[davemakovec]

The nice thing about playing the Giants is that if you can score three runs, you will almost certainly win, provided your pitching doesn't (befoul) the bed.

[crewcrazy]

The Brewers started out 9-19 on the road. They're 12-14 since that point after Friday night's win. That's some pretty average road play over the past couple months. If they can keep that up, they'll be in the thick of things until the end.

[DuWayne Steurer]

So, 7 - 6 on the road in the 2nd half. (Small-ish sample of course), and 2 of those game are against the hapless Astros.

 

Again, I don't think there's any causation that can be identified, but I do think it's more than just total randomness that caused the team to play poorly on the road. Of course, I can't prove that, and those that will say it's random noise certainly won't change their minds.

 

This upcoming road series in St. Louis is giving me the willies......all season long we've pointed out random series that could be a 'turning point', but assuming we go into St. Louis with a 3 game lead, we could LEAVE St. Louis with anywhere between a tie with St. Louis to a 6 game lead. This really is one of those potentially pivotal series that we love to point at.

[fondybrewfan]

We'll miss Garcia & Carpenter in STL; I have to believe that boosts are odds of winning that series. Lohse, Jackson, and Westbrook just don't scare me all that much. I suppose LaRussa could skip Lohse though since he has been struggling so much. As long as we win today and don't get swept in STL we will have at least a 2 game lead coming home to face a struggling PIT team and a so-so Dodger team. STL isn't exactly hard though either. Our schedule gets really easy until we play the Cards at the end of the month but there are plenty of teams that we could lose to if we don't play well (Specifically thinking of the Dodgers and Mets)

 

It seems like the Brewers have been playing pretty solid road ball for the last month; they just dug themselves a huge hole early in the year during interleague and the Astros/Braves/Cardinals trip.

[Ennder]

With these small sample size stats the reality probably lies somewhere in between. The team is probably slightly worse than normal on the road and they have had variance make it look worse than it is so it catches the eye.

[markedman5]

With the day off they might skip one of those guys and bring back Carpenter for the last game.

 

Larussa knows how important these head to head matchups are.

[rluzinski]

First 45 Road Games: 16-29

Next 16 Road Games: 10-6

Total: 26-35

 

They still have a much larger than average home/road split but they've actually played above expectations on the road lately. Hell, since starting 9-19 on the road, they've been a game over .500! I hope no one thought they could get rich by betting against the Brewers on the road lately....

[jjfanec]

We have now won 12 of our last 17 road games. We are now 28-36 on the road which is not great but is a marked improvement. We are now have a better record than 10 other teams on the road.

[endaround]

Obviously they have now started cheating on the raod

[AdvantageSchneider]

The Brewers are 20-7 on the road after a 16-31 start. They are 14-3 in their last 17 road games.

 

Saw this on the AP recap. Good reminder of how far we've come. It is a long season.

[jjfanec]

The Brewers are 20-7 on the road after a 16-31 start. They are 14-3 in their last 17 road games.

The Brewers are 35-38 on the road now. So they have one less win then you have for them, but it still shows how good they have been. They were the worst team on the road at one point, now they are middle of the road. It has been really impressive.

[dlk9s]

Playing at the Red Sox and the Yankees will typically hurt teams' road records.

[Ennder]

It would take probably at least 3 or 4 years for the road sample to actually be meaningful statistically. The NL central is full of 85 or so win talent teams though, I think most of us knew that going into the season.

Case in point, we have moved towards our expected numbers in way less than multiple seasons, this is such a non issue for every team in baseball. Just another area where fans like to judge a team for no good reason.

[1992casey]

Well, the Brewers have regressed way past the mean. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Looking back, though, you really couldn't explain the poor road record without attempting to also explain the phenomenal home record. Neither reflects the team's true talent.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, the Brewers have regressed way past the mean. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Looking back, though, you really couldn't explain the poor road record without attempting to also explain the phenomenal home record. Neither reflects the team's true talent.

Oh, I completely understand that. I even admitted it was a knee jerk reaction. But that's why I asked the question "when is it no longer 'bad luck?"

 

And it's not like there CAN'T be an explanation. One simple, possible explanation is easy. Team starts out poorly on the road, due in large part to bad luck. Team is 5 - 15 on the road, the guys allow the mental aspect of their poor road record to affect their play on the road, and voila, it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

 

I know that many will discount the mental aspect because it's not quantifiable, I'm only saying it's a possibility, not a fact.

 

And obviously, I don't think anyone predicted a 20 - 7 road stretch that would regress them back to the mean this quickly.

 

And the home record is easily explainable. They're cheating!

[1992casey]

Maybe they've learned how to cheat on the road, too. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[razzzorsharp]

So they still have a chance to finish over .500 on the road with a sweep. A series win will have them at .500.

[bork]

Odd number of games. They can't finish at .500.

[Ennder]

And it's not like there CAN'T be an explanation. One simple, possible explanation is easy. Team starts out poorly on the road, due in large part to bad luck. Team is 5 - 15 on the road, the guys allow the mental aspect of their poor road record to affect their play on the road, and voila, it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy

 

The big problem is the sample size never reaches a point where you can clearly say it is luck or not because after just 81 road games you start a new season and have new players and the data becomes corrupted for lack of a better word.