Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Road WOAAHS. When is it no longer 'bad luck'?


Brewer Fanatic Contributor

Well, color me impressed so far. This road trip had the very distinct possibility of putting the Brewers in a sizable hole, and they've come through ( so far) in spades. Just splitting the remaining 4 games would be a 6-5 trip against 3 tough teams, and I don't think you can ask for any more than that. I'd have been (and still would be) satisfied with a 5-6 trip. Not 'happy' with it, but satisfied.

 

I'm pretty sure this thread is what started this run. They knew I was mad, and decided enough was enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 72
  • Created
  • Last Reply
The Brewers now have the all time record for most shutouts on the road (10) with 0 at home. The modern (1901-) record difference is 13 games by the 1910 Braves (then playing as the Doves) with 19 road/6 home shutouts and the 1978 ChiSox with 15 road/2 home goose eggs.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is pretty amazing that in a full 30% of their road losses, the Brewer pitching performance was essentially irrelevant. Just did another count that may or may not be of interest.

 

In games the Brewers have lost by 5 or more runs this season, 10 of those losses have occurred on the road versus only 1 at Miller Park. Four of those 10 were also shutouts.

 

So we take the 10 shoutouts and add in the 6 blowouts that were not also shutouts and we are at just under 50% of the Brewers 33 road losses being losses of the type that could be classified (in one sense or another) as non-competitive. Yes, I understand that is probably an overly broad assertion but it probably lines up pretty well with fan perceptions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Well, standing at 5-4, even losing the last 2 would bring us to a 5-6 road trip. Again, I feared that this trip could put them in a 3-4 game hole, but now absolute worst case scenario is the Brewers going home 1 game out of first. Now obviously you don't want to go home on a 2 game losing streak and lose the good momentum, but this road trip is probably at this point a big positive on the mental side for these guys. And again, I don't know if that makes a difference. Maybe it does. Maybe it's minor, maybe it's a big difference. I'm just happy to see that this tough looking 11 gamer didn't put them in the hole that I feared it could.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Brewers started out 9-19 on the road. They're 12-14 since that point after Friday night's win. That's some pretty average road play over the past couple months. If they can keep that up, they'll be in the thick of things until the end.

"[baseball]'s a stupid game sometimes." -- Ryan Braun

Twitter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Brewer Fanatic Contributor

So, 7 - 6 on the road in the 2nd half. (Small-ish sample of course), and 2 of those game are against the hapless Astros.

 

Again, I don't think there's any causation that can be identified, but I do think it's more than just total randomness that caused the team to play poorly on the road. Of course, I can't prove that, and those that will say it's random noise certainly won't change their minds.

 

This upcoming road series in St. Louis is giving me the willies......all season long we've pointed out random series that could be a 'turning point', but assuming we go into St. Louis with a 3 game lead, we could LEAVE St. Louis with anywhere between a tie with St. Louis to a 6 game lead. This really is one of those potentially pivotal series that we love to point at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll miss Garcia & Carpenter in STL; I have to believe that boosts are odds of winning that series. Lohse, Jackson, and Westbrook just don't scare me all that much. I suppose LaRussa could skip Lohse though since he has been struggling so much. As long as we win today and don't get swept in STL we will have at least a 2 game lead coming home to face a struggling PIT team and a so-so Dodger team. STL isn't exactly hard though either. Our schedule gets really easy until we play the Cards at the end of the month but there are plenty of teams that we could lose to if we don't play well (Specifically thinking of the Dodgers and Mets)

 

It seems like the Brewers have been playing pretty solid road ball for the last month; they just dug themselves a huge hole early in the year during interleague and the Astros/Braves/Cardinals trip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With these small sample size stats the reality probably lies somewhere in between. The team is probably slightly worse than normal on the road and they have had variance make it look worse than it is so it catches the eye.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

First 45 Road Games: 16-29

Next 16 Road Games: 10-6

Total: 26-35

 

They still have a much larger than average home/road split but they've actually played above expectations on the road lately. Hell, since starting 9-19 on the road, they've been a game over .500! I hope no one thought they could get rich by betting against the Brewers on the road lately....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
The Brewers are 20-7 on the road after a 16-31 start. They are 14-3 in their last 17 road games.
The Brewers are 35-38 on the road now. So they have one less win then you have for them, but it still shows how good they have been. They were the worst team on the road at one point, now they are middle of the road. It has been really impressive.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would take probably at least 3 or 4 years for the road sample to actually be meaningful statistically. The NL central is full of 85 or so win talent teams though, I think most of us knew that going into the season.

Case in point, we have moved towards our expected numbers in way less than multiple seasons, this is such a non issue for every team in baseball. Just another area where fans like to judge a team for no good reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the Brewers have regressed way past the mean. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Looking back, though, you really couldn't explain the poor road record without attempting to also explain the phenomenal home record. Neither reflects the team's true talent.

That’s the only thing Chicago’s good for: to tell people where Wisconsin is.

[align=right]-- Sigmund Snopek[/align]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Well, the Brewers have regressed way past the mean. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Looking back, though, you really couldn't explain the poor road record without attempting to also explain the phenomenal home record. Neither reflects the team's true talent.

Oh, I completely understand that. I even admitted it was a knee jerk reaction. But that's why I asked the question "when is it no longer 'bad luck?"

 

And it's not like there CAN'T be an explanation. One simple, possible explanation is easy. Team starts out poorly on the road, due in large part to bad luck. Team is 5 - 15 on the road, the guys allow the mental aspect of their poor road record to affect their play on the road, and voila, it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

 

I know that many will discount the mental aspect because it's not quantifiable, I'm only saying it's a possibility, not a fact.

 

And obviously, I don't think anyone predicted a 20 - 7 road stretch that would regress them back to the mean this quickly.

 

And the home record is easily explainable. They're cheating!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
And it's not like there CAN'T be an explanation. One simple, possible explanation is easy. Team starts out poorly on the road, due in large part to bad luck. Team is 5 - 15 on the road, the guys allow the mental aspect of their poor road record to affect their play on the road, and voila, it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy

 

The big problem is the sample size never reaches a point where you can clearly say it is luck or not because after just 81 road games you start a new season and have new players and the data becomes corrupted for lack of a better word.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

×
×
  • Create New...