SS Upgrade: Realistically What Do You Expect?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Jim Bowden just said the Brewers are going hard after Carroll in his chat on espn.com. Also said Furcal is possible.

[RockCoCougars]

I love Bowden's response to a question regarding whether the Brewers would prefer Furcal or Carroll:

 

Jim Bowden:

believe it or not...Carroll

 

Another interesting tidbit, the Nats are asking for BJ Upton for Desmond. What planet are they living on?

[endaround]

Well they might actually want a player who can pass his physical

[PrinceEatMeat]

I was hoping Furcal would come back from his injury and start hitting, but he hasn't. That along with his injury risk probably does make Carroll a better option. At least you know what you're getting in Carroll at this time. Furcal is a big question mark.

[jmeks23]

The Astros must not want to trade Barmes, because I haven't heard much of anything regarding rumors of him, and you'd think the Brewers would be very interested if he were available considering he's played good defense this year and has hit decently.

[RockCoCougars]

If we are talking small sample sizes, lets throw out this year, and look at the career stats. Furcal has a higher batting average and a much higher slugging pct. Carroll has the edge with OBP, because he walks more. Both have been bad at the plate recently, but Furcal has the edge for several reasons. Higher upside at the plate, history of playing shortstop everyday, switch hitter, some power, younger, etc. Where does Carroll have the edge, getting on base? Let Beane sign him up and bat him ahead of David DeJesus. I'd have no problem acquiring Carroll as a utility guy, if the cost was low and he supplanted Counsell on the roster, but he is not an upgrade as a starter at short in my view.

Actually, you're the one who's talking about small sample sizes. You continue to bring up that Carroll's struggled for a couple weeks now and that he walks a lot as your primary reasons for not wanting to get him.

 

Yet you completely disregard the fact that Furcal has been awful this year. You use career stats then to make your argument. It's like it has to be one extreme or the other. How about looking at the past 2-3 years? Carroll has unquestionably been a better and more reliable offensive player as of late.

 

And lets look at the edges you give Furcal.

Younger-Well, who cares? If he hasn't been as good as of late, and if he is constantly hurt, what difference does it make?

History of playing SS everyday? Well, he's not playing everyday when he's hurt.

Some Power? Furcal is slugging .218 this year.

 

Where does Carroll get the edge?

He's got a better average, draws walks, hasn't been hurt.

 

It's just a wildly inconsistent argument. You citing Carrolls recent struggles and saying he's not an upgrade and then definitively stating that Furcal is when he's putting up a .176/.240/.218 line this year just doesn't make sense.

 

 

Either way, the better question should be what does Betancourt do better than Carroll OTHER than hit for power? I'll take Carroll over him defensively, better stick, better OBP. That's pretty clear cut.

 

And he's been worth 1.5 wins this year playing a great deal at short, 2.5 last year playing 70 games at short.

Betancourt? -.3 this year and .8 last year. Your disdain for someone who goes up there trying to draw walks aside, I don't see a convincing argument based on an objective argument that he's not an upgrade over Betancourt.

Not inconsistent at all. The reason that I posted the career stats were because people were all over me when I said that Carroll has been horrible at the plate for the past month. In response, people were posting how consistent he's been over the past several seasons. Furcal has actually started hitting a little, but I'll grant you he's been brutal this season. However, I think that Carroll has been brutal as well, despite his BA and OBP. I know that the new-age stat folks dismiss RBI's, but come on- the guy has 8 RBI in 335 PA. That is beyond pathetic, and it tells me that he chokes with guys in scoring position. Sure enough, he's hitting .143 this season with guys in scoring position. Going further, he's never driven in more than 36 runs in a season. His career batting average with runners in scoring position is about 20 points lower and OPS is about 50 points lower than his overall career stats.

 

This is the answer to the shortstop issue? I'll stand by my assertion that his best offensive attribute is the ability to draw a walk at a higher than average rate. I'm not even considering that he's never been an everyday shortstop. Guys are usually moved off short at 37, not the opposite.

[GamelToe]

I'm guessing they prefer Carroll so he can play both 3B/SS and switch rest days for McGehee/Betancourt.

[Funketown]

Carroll's career line with RISP is really not all that bad: .252/.337/.306/.643. There is nothing to suggest that Carroll has been "brutal" this season, outside of his performance in 49 AB's with RISP. Not to beat on a dead horse, but Carroll is OPS'ing .931 with a runner on first in 48 AB's. His RISP numbers this season are just small sample goofiness; he has not performed that poorly over the course of his career with RISP. I don't consider hitting 50 points below your career OPS numbers "choking".

[RockCoCougars]

Carroll is on pace to challenge the record for fewest RBI from a batting title contender. That is historically bad anyway you slice it.

[Warning Track Power]

Making a list in my mind, Jamey Carroll is about the 5th name on the list of what we believe to be available SS that I would want to acquire. Carroll would be a fantastic bench player for 2011 for sure but we would have to make an additional move to fill the SS hole. It his age that scares me away. If he were 32, I could definitely get behind him but acquiring 37 year old Carroll for anything more than a super utility role would be a totally underwhelming move.

 

1. Brendan Ryan

.

.

.

(t)2. Clint Barmes/Rafael Furcal

3. Ian Desmond

4. Jamey Carroll

 

I think we should be acquiring a guy to play SS for 2011 and possibly be around for 2012 and 2013. To me, this is why Brendan Ryan is the best fit at the Trade Deadline. Again, we don't need a Reyes or Tulowitzki at SS when we have Braun, Weeks, Hart, Fielder in 2011. We need a D-minded player and whatever O received is a bonus.

 

Put another way...isn't Brendan Ryan Jamey Carroll, only 8 years younger? Why buy the older model when the newer would likely (unverified) cost relatively close to the same amount?

[Funketown]

RockCo, I'm not saying Carroll is the first guy I'd want, or that he'll be a godsend to the club. I'm just saying he's a lot better than Yuniesky. Personally, I'd like to see Brendan Ryan or Clint Barmes.

 

Carroll is what he is. He's not going to drive in a lot of runs but he'll look great in the 2-hole in front of Braun, Fielder, and Weeks. He probably can't play every day at SS, but even if he plays 5 games per week instead of Yuni it will help.

[HiAndTight]

Carroll is on pace to challenge the record for fewest RBI from a batting title contender. That is historically bad anyway you slice it.

We're down to RBI's now as a reason to not get Carroll?

 

We're really digging deep here for reasons that Caroll would not provide an upgrade. It's almost as if as soon as one reason you put forth for why Carroll isn't an upgrade is dismissed with facts, you just keep trying to find another. You state he's terrible with RISP, a stat that's almost completely meaningless over 48 AB's. When his career numbers THERE are shown, the same logic you just took in another post, ie, career numbers over current numbers, you come back to RBI's.

 

RBI's=Team stat.

[HiAndTight]

Not inconsistent at all. The reason that I posted the career stats were because people were all over me when I said that Carroll has been horrible at the plate for the past month. In response, people were posting how consistent he's been over the past several seasons. Furcal has actually started hitting a little, but I'll grant you he's been brutal this season. However, I think that Carroll has been brutal as well, despite his BA and OBP. I know that the new-age stat folks dismiss RBI's, but come on- the guy has 8 RBI in 335 PA. That is beyond pathetic, and it tells me that he chokes with guys in scoring position. Sure enough, he's hitting .143 this season with guys in scoring position. Going further, he's never driven in more than 36 runs in a season. His career batting average with runners in scoring position is about 20 points lower and OPS is about 50 points lower than his overall career stats.

 

This is the answer to the shortstop issue? I'll stand by my assertion that his best offensive attribute is the ability to draw a walk at a higher than average rate. I'm not even considering that he's never been an everyday shortstop. Guys are usually moved off short at 37, not the opposite.

He's been brutal beyond his BA and his OBP? I'm not even sure how to respond to this.

 

So aside from his ability to get hits and get on base, the two most important factors in creating runs, he's been a brutal hitter? And again, we're talking about this in reference to him being an upgrade over Betancourt who has a lower OBP than Carroll does BA? Not to mention Carroll's a better defender, and capable of playing the OF, 2nd, 3rd and SS?

 

And it is inconsistent. You're citing Carroll's numbers from the last couple weeks as a reason to not get him, and then advocating Furcal who's been worse than Carroll has been for a couple weeks for the entire season.

 

Then you're going to career stats, where Carroll still blows Betancourt out of the water, but the flaw here is you're comparing him to Furcal who was a great player, but his production has been zapped by injuries. How important are career stats for a guy when he's struggled mightily as of late and is injured in his mid 30's?

 

 

There really is no coherent argument than can be made that he's not an upgrade over Betancourt. I'm all for taking a flier on Furcal as well as he does provide the potential to be a very good, well rounded player. But given the injuries, there is a significant chance he won't be, whereas with Carroll, he's consistently been a solidly above average player.

[StearnsFTW]

RockCoCougars]I love Bowden's response to a question regarding whether the Brewers would prefer Furcal or Carroll:

 

Jim Bowden:

believe it or not...Carroll

 

Another interesting tidbit, the Nats are asking for BJ Upton for Desmond. What planet are they living on?

Hard to believe he was fired from every baseball job he had.

 

I would definitely prefer Carroll over Furcal. In fact I'd prefer just about anyone over Furcal.

[Invader3K]

RockCo, did Jamey Carroll kick your dog or something? You're making it sound like he's one of the worst players in all of baseball. He clearly isn't.

[RockCoCougars]

RockCo, did Jamey Carroll kick your dog or something? You're making it sound like he's one of the worst players in all of baseball. He clearly isn't.

I'm not saying he would be horrible as a backup. He'd be a major upgrade over Counsell. That said, I don't want Melvin selling me that he's any sort of solution at short. If he was a lefty hitter and could be platooned, I might be on board, but he's not.

 

I will be tremendously disappointed if they make a trade with the Dodgers and get Carroll when Furcal is available. There is lots to like about Furcal- switch hitter, tons of postseason experience, generally a solid fielder, etc. Yes, he's been bad this season due to the wrist thing, but last year he hit .300 and was an All Star, it's not like he's been circling the drain for a few years or something.

 

Let's just say if the Brewers trade for Carroll, I'll have to replace my picture....

[Warning Track Power]

RockCoCougars[/b]]

Invader3K[/b]]RockCo, did Jamey Carroll kick your dog or something? You're making it sound like he's one of the worst players in all of baseball. He clearly isn't.

I'm not saying he would be horrible as a backup. He'd be a major upgrade over Counsell. That said, I don't want Melvin selling me that he's any sort of solution at short. If he was a lefty hitter and could be platooned, I might be on board, but he's not.

 

I will be tremendously disappointed if they make a trade with the Dodgers and get Carroll when Furcal is available. There is lots to like about Furcal- switch hitter, tons of postseason experience, generally a solid fielder, etc. Yes, he's been bad this season due to the wrist thing, but last year he hit .300 and was an All Star, it's not like he's been circling the drain for a few years or something.

 

Let's just say if the Brewers trade for Carroll, I'll have to replace my picture....

RockCo you and are in 100% concurrence. Trading for Carroll to be a backup at SS/3B when we have the black hole triumvirate of Betancourt/Counsell/Wilson occupying 3 roster spots is definitely an upgrade. However, this does nothing to solve the real problem which is a longterm STARTING SS upgrade. I want no part of Carroll as the 2012 starting SS. I would be comfortable with Ryan, Barmes, Desmond or Furcal opening at SS in 2012. Additionally, these are the names we likely will be looking at acquiring anyways for 2012. Why not make the move now?

 

I just noticed on Baseball Reference, Carroll has a negative dWAR this season but he's played at 2B and SS. Anyone know, what his dWAR playing SS?

[brewmann04]

I will take Carroll in a heartbeat at SS he would be an instant Defensive upgrade.

[adambr2]

Carroll is pretty much average defensively. He's not going to give you the D of Barmes or Alexei Ramirez.

 

He is however a defensive upgrade over Betancourt as you mentioned. But most people with a pulse are a defensive upgrade over Betancourt.

[Warning Track Power]

DM's posturing in the JS today just confirms my belief that it will be Carroll, if anybody. Color me unimpressed.

[StearnsFTW]

I would prefer Barmes, just because his defense is quite good, but Carroll beats the hell out of Betancourt.

[RockCoCougars]

DM's posturing in the JS today just confirms my belief that it will be Carroll, if anybody. Color me unimpressed.

Yeah, I think it's got to be Carroll. There have almost been more rumors linking Melvin to this guy than there were in the days before the CC trade was made. Have to think where there is smoke there is fire.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It will definitely be an underwhelming move to get Carroll, but he'd still help the team at SS and 3B. He's good defensively and gets on base at a good clip. Better than both Yuni and McGehee in both of those areas. I'd rather see Melvin get someone else, but if he lands Carroll and a LHP for the pen I'll be satisfied. At least he'd be improving the team instead of doing nothing.

[geddymd73]

The unconfirmed reports by Jim Bowden a few days ago said that the Brewers were close to

acquiring Carroll. Apparently the sides have not

been able to agree on the prospects to be sent over to the Dodgers and no

deal appears close at this time. Unless Melvin is going to change his tune and throw in some value, it doesn't look all that promising. I doubt PTBNL will work this time.

[reillymcshane]

If you are looking at long term SS help (beyond 2011), then it should be noted that Barmes, Furcal and Carrol are free agents after 2011. That would make a guy like Brendan Ryan ideal.

 

None of the three free agents to be are Type A or Type B free agents. Carrol is the closest. Only a few players are ahead of him, and several are playing badly or not at all (Casey Blake, for example).

 

The upside for Carrol would be if he qualified as a Type B free agent. The Brewers could offer arby, if he takes it, you have a great utility guy to replace Counsel. If he doesn't, you get the sandwich pick. I don't know how hard it is to shift rankings, but as I said, there are several players playing poorly or not at all ahead of him.

 

Ryan would be great because even at his worst (2010), he still was productive (1.4 WAR). His defense is very good. Assuming we lose Prince, a new 1B (Gamel?) and a new 3B (Green? or does Casey rebound) would provide a much better longterm defense.

 

In the end, no matter what is done, we still will need a SS for 2012. If we don't get one this year, there are some free agents, like Barmes, we could go after.