100% Speculation -- Guess the two minor league PTBNL's for K-Rod

[battlekow]

Chris Perez was a PTBNL in the Mark DeRosa trade from the Indians to the Cards a few years back. The rumor was the Cards gave them the choice of Perez or Motte (who I believe were both in the majors at the time, or at least had been at some point...which was OK, because of the silly rules involving "switching leagues" with PTBNLs), so they used some time to scout both more extensively

This has nothing to do with the overall point, which is valid, but Jess Todd was the PTBNL in that trade.

[DHonks]

As for the comment from the Keith Law chat, why would K-Rod accept arbitration from the Brewers and get roughly $10-12 million, when he could sign elsewhere for 3 years and $25-30 million? Given that Axford won't even be arbitration eligible, Saito and Hawkins are free agents, and the rest are cheap, we could actually assemble a bullpen for a total of around $15 million with KRod comprising 80% of that (for one year, then he likely declines arbitration the next year)

[Mass Haas]

Just wanted to thank those who shed new light on the whole PTBNL / 40-man roster aspect of the discussion. While still not crystal-clear, I spoke too definitively (and apparently incorrectly) early on in this thread. Knowledge is good.

[Nader Raider Tim]

As for the comment from the Keith Law chat, why would K-Rod accept arbitration from the Brewers and get roughly $10-12 million, when he could sign elsewhere for 3 years and $25-30 million? Given that Axford won't even be arbitration eligible, Saito and Hawkins are free agents, and the rest are cheap, we could actually assemble a bullpen for a total of around $15 million with KRod comprising 80% of that (for one year, then he likely declines arbitration the next year)

I really just have a hard time seeing KRod pulling down that much money. I just thing that KRod is going to get money closer to what Jose Valverde had to get from the Tigers. I have nothing to back it up really just I don't see to many teams spend tons on a closer much anymore.

[DHonks]

Nader Raider Tim, even at Valverde's $7M rate, I would imagine K-Rod surpassing that deal. What amazes me is his age as well....only 29. I would imagine the very bottom end for his market is 3 years and $21 million, but most likely 3 years and $24-30 million is the true bottom of the line.

[CheezWizHed]

Erik Komatsu (Little Pine) is one of my irrational favorites to follow (not a big prospect, but I just like him). He profiles as a 4th OF or lower-end RF starter. High OBP, lower SLG. Can play CF in a pinch. I can see him being one of the PTBNL options.

 

Khris Davis has Braun-esque potential. He will be a LFer or 1B with limited defense, but has been just killing the ball. But he won't get national attention until he does it at AA, which (as mentioned above), we are pulling our hair out wondering why is isn't there now...

 

Here are the guys that I would count as the untouchables (for this trade at least): Gamel, Thornburg (confirmed), Peralta, Scarpetta, and Khris Davis.

Further, I'm hopeful that these are also excluded, but I could see where they might be included: Taylor Green, Bucci, Heckathorn, Schafer, and Rivas.

 

I would imagine the very bottom end for his market is 3 years and $21

million, but most likely 3 years and $24-30 million is the true bottom

of the line.

 

And no matter what the actual bottom end is, it only matters what Boras thinks and wants the bottom end to be...

[gregmag]

Cheez, that's a solid analysis, but I really can't imagine that Green or Schafer would be in the deal. Those two, along with Khris Davis, are probably the only position prospects in the system that have established real possibilities of starting for the Brewers at some point. I would also be annoyed if the deal included Komatsu or Gindl.

 

I think it will be two pitchers. One we know (as much as we know anything about this) has had MLB experience -- that's Stetter/Parra/McClendon/Dillard. The other will probably be a lower-level guy, or possibly Rivas -- but more likely Ross, Merklinger, or Lasker. Bucci or Heckathorn would be too much.

 

One thing that I keep thinking about is how to feel about the possibility of selling low on some guys, particularly Kentrail Davis and Scooter Gennett. The Brewers made a smart deal with Cutter Dykstra, but they would need to be very careful about selling low on guys like this who have serious potential but mixed track records. Don't do it unless you have seriously, confidently lost faith in them.

[TooLiveBrew]

Erik Komatsu (Little Pine) is one of my irrational favorites to follow (not a big prospect, but I just like him). He profiles as a 4th OF or lower-end RF starter. High OBP, lower SLG. Can play CF in a pinch. I can see him being one of the PTBNL options.

 

One reason I think Komatsu's a decent bet to be on the PTBNL list is that the reports on his defense are that he's not really a CF, but doesn't have the arm for RF.

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, I was thinking of the deal without the "one has MLB experience" comment. I doubt they pair Green or Schafer with someone of MLB experience, unless its a really low-end/older guy like Sean Green/James/DeFelice, which I really doubt.

 

But I also didn't want to fall into the trap of overvaluing our prospects also. According to "experts", Green and Schafer wouldn't be a high-end prospects that people have said won't be included.

[And That]

With the new information about trading a guy with major league experience, I'll amend my guess to McClendon and Manzanillo.

[Mass Haas]

Sorry, but I don't think Manzanillo could possibly be on that list, and here's more praise for him from Gord Ash at the tail end of last night's pre-game audio with Cory Provus.

[And That]

Manzanillo isn't one of the Brewers' top prospects (at least so far as I consider them) and is definitely a "non-zero" that Keith Law was referring to. Also might be someone the Mets might want to follow, as he's popped up out of nowhere this year. I'm not saying I'm certain it's him, but I wouldn't rule him out at all.

[YoungGeezy]

Manzanillo isn't one of the Brewers' top prospects (at least so far as I consider them) and is definitely a "non-zero" that Keith Law was referring to. Also might be someone the Mets might want to follow, as he's popped up out of nowhere this year. I'm not saying I'm certain it's him, but I wouldn't rule him out at all.

With the huge praise from Melvin and Ash, i think they are considering him a top prospect in the system. Will not get the national attention or even power 50 hype because he is strictly a reliever but I have a feeling they are excited for the flame throwing, back end reliever. What we consider a top prospect might be A LOT different than Melvin. That is IMO.

I have a feeling McClendon is a lock then I would have to go with one of our OF's in the system. Due to Nichols refusing to treat Khris Davis like a deserving prospect over the past 2 seasons, I would put him as the other. (I tend to vent about this at every opening, feel awful for Khris, nothing else he could do.)

[TheCrew07]

I said that I would never put a reliever in our top 10 again after rethinking my position on value a couple of years ago, however given the current state of our system Manzanillo is probably a top 10 prospect if he keeps up his current pace. I'd be hard pressed to identify 10 players who could have a greater MLB impact than him, especially with Jungmann, Bradley, Lopez, and Reed unsigned.

[Mudville9]

I really hope Davis is not in this deal. I'm ok with Komatsu and reliever, but anyone with a shot at producing well for us in the future should not be in this deal.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I give it a 1% chance of Gamel or Green being in this deal. We did the Mets a favor taking this contract, it WILL NOT be 2 of our upper prospects, I would think no one in the top 10 of the Pwer 50 would be included.

 

Next trade please http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TurkWendell]

Hey all, haven't checked in in a while, still no word on the identities here.

 

We can cross two "major league experience" names off the list with Brett Carroll and Tim Dillard's recent promotions. And with the Brandon Kintzler surgery news, even though I'm not sure he was eligible to begin with, surely his name is off too.

 

Looking more and more like Mike McClendon is the guy Sandy Alderson was referencing. But with 3/7's of our bullpen being just brutal (DJ Carrasco, Manny Acosta and Ryota Igarashi), 2 of which have options anyway and the 3rd who has been DFA'ed earlier in the year with no concerns of losing him, I wonder why we wouldn't just take him sooner than later and get a look-see at him to help with decisions for next year?

 

Anyway, hopefully more moves come that we can further whittle the list down.

[mrpackersfan1]

Cross off Eric Farris

[paul253]

If it's Taylor Green Brewer fans, at least ones who have been following him, are going to be furious. I'll be furious. The guy is up to like .331 right now in Triple A. It'll be him though. I know it'll be him.

[CheezWizHed]

When Farris first got called up, I was about 99% sure that it was because Green is on the list.

 

But looking back at it and to quote myself:

 

I doubt they pair Green or Schafer with someone of MLB experience, unless its a really low-end/older guy like Sean Green/James/DeFelice, which I really doubt.

 

We know one has MLB experience and it really seems that McClendon is the obvious choice there.

 

If the Mets get McClendon and Green, I'd be furious. If that were the haul for K-Rod, the Linebrink trade would look like chump change.

 

The second (no MLB Experience) player has to be someone at a lower level...

[greeg35]

recent tweet:

Haudricourt Tom

As for those who speculate that Green is on PTBNL for K-Rod deal, I asked somebody who should know and he said he didn't think so.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, if someone who *should* know said he didn't *think* so, it's all settled.

[Bernman23]

Does he not realize how much of an oxymoron that statement is? Haudricourt is really reaching lately to protect the franchise who indirectly pays his salary from criticism.

[paul253]

Is there a deadline for the Mets to select the players?

[And That]

Well, if someone who *should* know said he didn't *think* so, it's all settled.

Haudricourt is probably right. It's not Green.